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Paddy Power Day Cheltenham

I'll go for three outsiders in the Paddy Power itself: Divers and Quantitative Easing represent the novice handicap form from the festival. People are crabbing that in comparison to the Wishful Thinking form which is fair enough, but weight and prices more than compensate. And I feel obliged to throw in Fine Parchment ew as well, as an old friend, albeit one in very deep here.

The previous race is a shocker, and the only one I couldn't crab is Chicago Grey. I'll cover Hey Big Spender as well at the price.

As for football, we may be gash, but 5/1 England is a bit silly - you can immediately arb it on betfair for starters. I'd go 7/2 tops, and don't come on here laughing when we've been beaten 5-0! Chuck in Northampton at a generous 9/4 to beat Luton in the cup.


Be lucky....

Ascot Champion's Day

Frankel has to be opposed at the price, on no good grounds, and the one who stands out is Immortal Verse (£40 8/1). Poet's Voice and Dick Turpin also silly prices so worth fivers each just in case we have a typical end of season day.

So You Think also opposable by half the field, as you wish. I'll major on Dubai Prince and add in Nehaam for an each way treble.

For football betting - Stoke look the wrong price at home to Fulham. My team remain gash away from home, and I'd rather write off the 6-0 derby win as a freak. Stoke have only had 17 shots all season, apparently. Best save on 0-0!

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Cesarewitch

So, one last chance for the season, in one of my favourite races, the one with the quirky draw bias.

My darts against the field include two of the favourites but at these prices that's OK.

Sentry Duty and Beyond have the conditions, draw, and trainers. One for the frame at a price is Bow to No one each way



For football fans: Brentford at Carlisle at 2/1+ and Liechtenstein can give Scotland a game again - 9/2+ the draw is too long.


And, of course, as regulars will know, the England rugby price was terrible!



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Arc de Triomphe

Opposing Sarafina and So You Think in the ante post market has left me with a nice looking book, with Workforce, Galikova, Snow Fairy, Reliable Man, Hiruno Damour and St Nicholas Abbey all providing profit.

But now it's time to decide and despite Pricewise beating me to it, I'm siding with Hiruno Damour. It's about time the Japanese landed this, and in a race where you can make a case for and against the entire field, he's the one who looks priced wrong. Reliable Man at double figures also.


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Scotland v England

Long-time readers, those who remember the good years, not the Saturday Gambler years I'm reduced to, will know that my key betting question is why might the odds be wrong.

And one of those is blind patriotism, and tomorrow morning's Scotland/England showdowns is one where the prices are just wrong. No doubt England are the stronger team, and should ease their way to the semi-finals, but not at 1.2 Somewhere between 1.4 and 1.5 maybe.

They've spent a decade scraping through matches on Wilkinson's boot and not even that is guaranteed tomorrow, nor is their ability to play the referee. The price is further skewed by the notion that Scotland will have to play loose to win by 8 points, but that's white noise adding another point to an already generous handicap.

If I was still a pro I'd be playing +10.5 for profit and Scotland at 6s for glory. Of course, as we know I'm no longer a pro...



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Cambridgeshire

Running out of time to land my first flat winner!

And not the easiest place to start. Still, three prices I do like:
Credit Swap - why not a repeat success in a quirky race?
Albaqaa - progressive?
Pendragon - will love conditions and can improve on last year's placing

There's been a bias to front-runners this meeting (I haven't seen any racing but am guessing a tailwind). Maqaraat in position to benefit, and can hopefully drag a couple of mine along with him.


Football - Hartlepool look too big at 2/1 at Bournemouth.


Credit Swap £10ew at 33/1
Pendragon £10ew at 40/1
Albaqaa £15ew at 20/1

Music Show (can't resist, but boy has she been disappointing this year) £10 at 20/1


Music Show/Credit Swap and Pendragon and Albaqaa/Golden Delicious trebles
to win £30000+


Be lucky....