Weekend Football 2 December

Fortified by Fulham's success (felt a bit sad not to be there actually - I was a season-ticket holder for quite a few years, until Loftus Road interruptus and full-time gambling put Saturdays out of reach). Digressing I read a lot about what's gone wrong with Pricewise's Tom Segal. My own pet theory is the success of Reading FC has meant he's taken his eye off prize.

Middlesborough 5pts beat Man Utd 11/2 and possibly bigger

Portsmouth 5pts beat Villa 13/10

Sheff Utd 5pts beat Charlton at 13/10

Leicester 5pts beat Sheff Weds at 13/10

Rotherham 5pts beat Yeovil at 5/4

November - Summary of blog to date

Let's get this out of the way now, as there's decent racing to concentrate on Friday and Saturday.

Racing (all)
Points out: 475
Points in: 541
% returns: 114%
(Racing is the core business but has only recently been on here as it used to be on www.escorialracing.com - still is, but subscription only. As such the points should begin to build up significantly compared to last year.)


Football (all)
Points out: 1273
Points in: 1372
% returns: 108%
(Football season 2006/7. I have managed to corrupt my data for the blog on this one. Instead of ploughing back through the results, this is all the football betting to date. My own real bets for this season are virtually identical to the ones posted here, so my current percentage returns of 126% will apply here to within a couple per cent - a figure almost certainly unsustainable.)


Golf
Points out: 351
Points in: 298
% returns 83%
(We're beginning to get somewhere here. My co-investor and I busted our first bank. However our secodn bank has been growing way beyond our dreams. In fact it may even wipe out the losses of the first bank soon!).


Others
Points out: 74
Points in: 270
% returns: 297%


ALL
Points Out: 2202
Points In: 2425
% returns: 111%
(Regulars will know that my target is to grind out my 10% profit on a fairly conservative staking strategy. So after a tough few months all is good, and personally my big horse racing treble a month ago - unmeasured here - makes it even better.)

Racing - Weds 29th November

A strange day today, with three small field chases within half an hour where I don't like the favourite. (save on the treble!)

Ayr 2:00
Wild Cane Ridge 11/8
Mister McGoldrick 7/4
Ransboro 10/3

Probably the best of the three faves, if his jumping stands up, and that is an if should Mister McGoldrick get into a rhythm. Ransboro is of course weighted down with the world's greatest jockey but adds more interest. There's very little difference between dutching the two or laying the fave.

Lay Wild Cane Ridge 5pts at Evens (including commission).

Ayr 2:30
Percussionist 5/4
Harmony Brig 13/8
King Revo 7/1

The notion of backing Percussionist at odds-on is very unappealing. Again could simply be a layer, but I think at the prices I'll chance the fitness of Harmony Brig.

Harmony Brig 5pts win at 2/1

Plumpton 2:10
Avitta 13/8
My World 2/1
Alphabetical 7/1
Premier Estate 7/1

Another horse who I'd have down as ungenuine trading close to odds on. Again having to chance fitness on my selection.

My World 5pts win at 5/2

Nedbank Challenge Golf

Decent ew terms in this otherwise pointless event.

Immelman 2pts ew at 10/1
Di Marco 0.5pt ew at 20/1

Mid Week Football 28/29 Nov

A couple of these are shooting at the stars!

Stoke 5pts beat Cardiff 11/8

Aston Villa 5pts beat Man City 10/11 or as close to Evens as can get

Bolton 5pts beat Chelsea 9/2 or as close to 5/1 as can get

Fulham 5pts beat Arsenal 5/1 or as close to 6/1 as can get

Racing - Sunday 26th November

Before settling down to watch Man Utd attempt to land a 5-timer for me, there's a few decent races.

Newbury 2:05
Denman 1/3
Snakebite 4/1

Ok - who's going to be stupid enough to oppose this one. Err, me!

Snakebite 4pts win at 11/2

Newbury 3:15
Manhattan Boy 2/1
Tessanora 5/1
Charmatic 6/1
Widely Accepted 14/1

Looks a legitimate fave. Given the ground it's probably best to miss the race, but I think I'll play.

Manhattan Boy 5pts win at 15/8 guaranteed.

Fontwell 1:15
Pablo Du Charmil 6/4
Penzance 3/1
Royal Shakespeare 3/1

The latter could well be a non runner so caution again. However, Penzance has been very disappointing so far over fences, whilst Pablo was very good first time out.

Pablo Du Charmil 6pts win at 15/8

Racing - Saturday 25th November

See the previous posting for the Hennessey. Glad I put it up last night as Pricewise chose Preacher Boy and last night's 20/1 has long since gone.

Newbury 1:35

Saintsaire 7/2
Island faith 4/1
Roofing Spirit 6/1
Locksmith 10/1
Bambi De Lorme 10/1
Kalca Mome 10/1
Jacks Craic 16/1
Green Belt Flyer 16/1

Another Saturday, another slew of remarkably short Nicholls runners! We had it off big time last year on Island Faith's first run of the year, and I'm loathe to desert him here - I expect I'll at least save. However, Roofing Spirit hurt us last Friday and I'm on a recovery mission.

Roofing Spirit 6pts win at 11/1

Newbury 3:15

Made in Montot 5/1
Gallant Approach 5/1
No Full 6/1
Big Rob 7/1
Butlers Cabin 7/1

My tissue looks a right mess compared to the books. It looks a race to swerve but my prices have got me betting much bigger than looks sensible.

No Full 5pts win at 10/1
Big Rob 5pts win at 14/1
half pt rev fc

Newbury 3:45

Afsoun 5/1
Sea The Light 5/1
Craven 5/1
Midas Way 5/1
Whispered Promises 11/1
Neevesou 11/1
Anemix 11/1
Iffy 12/1

No way into this - no bet.

Newcastle 3:00

Bob Bob Bobbin 3/1
Neptune Collonges 4/1
King Killone 5/1
AGlass in Thyne 12/1
Hautclan 12/1
Another Promise 16/1
Julius Ceaser 16/1
Fundamentalist 25/1

I'm a big fan of Bob Bob Bobbin and he can win this on his way to the Welsh National. Price not exciting though.

Bob Bob Bobbin 3pts win at 7/2
King Killone 2pts win at 6/1
Julius Caesaer 1pt win at 40/1

Newcastle 3:30

Straw Bear 5/2
Desert Quest 5/2
Noble Request 7/2
Arcalis 7/1

Straw Bear all the rage - looks too short now - I'll play the prices.

Desert Quest 4pts win at 3/1
Noble Request 4pts win at 9/2

Hennessey Tissue Friday Evening

Saturday 25th - Newbury 2:40

Turpin Green 7/1
State of Play 7/1
Montegermont 7/1
Idle Talk 7/1
Juveigneur 11/1
Vodka Bleu 11/1
Preacher Boy 12/1
Cornish Rebel 16/1
Ardaghey 20/1
Presenting Express 20/1
Parsons Legacy 25/1

I have my front four nicely tucked up in ante post vouchers so I'll be disappointed not to collect. Looking at the market right now if there's any juice left it looks to be on Idle Talk (who is easily my biggest winner) and Preacher Boy (with 16 runners the latter could look a good ew bet on a staying-on lightweight in possibly horrible conditions).

Idle Talk 4pts at 11/1

Preacher Boy 2pts ew at 20/1

Racing - Friday 24th November

Newbury 3:10

Lou Du Moulin Mas 9/4
Kerstino Two 4/1
Kick de la Vesvre 9/1
Desailly 9/1
Balladeer 9/1

Lou Du Moulin Mas' for the taking, except he remains something like 1-19 over fences, and so must be opposable. Kock De La Vesvre and Desailly need to bounc back so I'll side with the two in-form horses.

Kerstino Two 4pts win at 6/1+

Balladeer 2pts ew at 18/1 (quarter odds totalbet)

Weekend Football 25th November

An interesting set of matches this week.

Bolton 5pts beat Arsenal at 3/1 (as always!)

Colchester 5pts beat Southend at 10/11

Hartlepool 5pts beat Wycombe at 8/5

Rochdale 5pts beat Mansfield at 11/8

(Sunday) Man Utd 5pts beat Chelsea at 13/8

Casio Open Golf

I'll continue to surf the wave with Jeev Singh.

Singh 2.5pts ew at 12/1

Racing Weds 22nd November

Wetherby 2:00

Ela Re 5/1
King of the Arctic 5/1
Dead Mans Dante 6/1
Mr Prickle 6/1

A poor bunch. The trainerform's a worry, but I'll go with my price.

King of the Arctic 4pts win at 7/1

Chepstow 2:45

Blue Splash 5/4
Alfasonic 7/2
Chamacco 10/1
Mister Sher 12/1

Looks a solid enough fave to me. If Alfasonic needs the run odds against is fair.

Blue Splash 4pts win at 11/10

Lingfield 3:00

Daryal 7/4
San Antonio 4/1
Guru 11/2

Another legitimate fave. To explain to anyone new, my prices are skewed by contrariness against faves, especially in handicaps. So where they are priced as fair-priced faves, although they don't look like 'value' on my prices, my records show they are, and I bet accordingly.

Daryal 4pts win at 13/8

Aintree - Sunday Racing Nov 19th

Aintree 1:30

Shannons Pride 9/1
I Hear Thunder 9/1
Swansea Bay 10/1
Star Performace 10/1
Hakim 10/1
Neltina 12/1
Misterthetrixster 20/1
Bob The Builder 20/1
be My Better Half 20/1
Theatre Knight 20/1

I'll play my prices in an open looking race:

I Hear Thunder 3pts win at 16/1
Swansea Bay 3pts win at 16/1
Neltina 2pts win at 40/1

Aintree 2:00

Ursis 5/1
Ball O Malt 13/2
Accordello 9/1
Nobel 12/1
Dangerously Good 16/1
Ostfaani 16/1
Take a Mile 16/1
Aldirous 16/1
Euro American 20/1
Trouble at Bay 20/1
Verasi 25/1

One stand out on my prices (I see the RP agree with me, so the betfairmarket makers plainly know something we've overlooked.)

Ball O Malt 4pts win at 12/1

Aintree 2:35

Tanterari 13/2
Clan Royal 7/1
Dun Doire 11/1
Dunbrody Millar 12/1
Inca Trail 12/1
Nil Desperandum 14/1
Le Duc 16/1
Solar System 16/1
Bewleys Berry 20/1
Mckelvey 20/1
Undenaible 25/1
King Bee 33/1
Kings Glen 33/1

I'm with Pricewise on this one and took a small chunk on Dunbrody Millar 33s ante post, along with Tanterari. He could do with a winner, so here's hoping!

Dunbrody Millar 2pts ew at 20/1
Solar System 2pts win at 40/1

Aintree 3:10

No prices, but I'll stick with Backstage.

Backstage 4pts win at 4/1

Saturday 18th November - racing

Haydock 1:20
Kicks for Free Evens
Self respect 9/4
Bleak House 11/2
Indian Pipe Dream 20/1

Nothing against Kicks for Free but again the Nicholls horses are incredibly short. I'll have to oppose.

Self respect 4pts win at 11/4



Haydock 1:50
Kauto Star 7/4
Beef or Salmon 4/1
L'Ami 5/1
Kingscliff 6/1
Iris's Gift 11/1
Ollie Magern 12/1

Boy, you can turn yourself inside-out with the ifs and buts on this one. No bet right now.



Haydock 2:20
Jazz D'Estruval 7/1
Be Be King 7/1
Mephisto 9/1
Irish Wolf 9/1
Halcon Generladias 11/1
United 12/1
Two Miles West 12/1
Desert Tommy 12/1
Brankley Boy 12/1
Millennium Royal 20/1
Royal Emperor 20/1

Very tight. Nothing doing right now. I may play the low-weights closer to the off is the ground is looking bad.



Haydock 3:20
Launde 5/4
Roman Ark 3/1
Strike back 9/1

Launde may have it to do on ratings, but I like him here against disappointing types. Will wait on a drift though.



Ascot 1:05
Reveillez 5/1
Chilling Place 11/2
Mr Boo 6/1
Knowhere 7/1
Without a Doubt 8/1
Billyvoddan 9/1
Cerium 10/1
Medison 10/1
Hoo La Baloo 25/1

Think the market should be more compact than it is and so have bet accordingly.

Billyvoddan 3pts win at 14/1
Without a Doubt 3pts win at 14/1
Mr Boo 3pts win at 8/1
1pt in total combined fcs/trifecta.



Ascot 1:35
Hardy Eustace Evens
Mighty Man 3/1
Fire Dragon 9/1

No bet.



Ascot 2:05
Tysou 11/2
Andrea 6/1
Green Tango 13/2
Demi Beau 13/2
Madison Du Berlais 13/2
See You Sometime 12/1
Mister McGoldrick 20/1
Nyrche 20/1

I don't actually fancy any of these as it stands. Watching brief. No bet.



Huntingdon 3:00
Monkerhostin 7/4
Racing Demon 3/1
Thisthatandtother 3/1
Dempsey 9/1

I'm a huge fan of Monkerhostin and quite happy to take 2/1 here.

Monkerhostin 5pts win at 2/1

Friday 17th - Racing

Escorial just about to go subscription only, so I'll start putting my tissues up here.


Ascot 1:35
Nippy Des Mottes 9/4
All Star 5/2
Swing Bill 11/2
Flying Enterprise 6/1
Adopted Hero 14/1
Carthys Cross 16/1

Not overly excited the front two. Will take a punt at the Williams horse improving on its first run.

Flying Enterprise 4pts win at 9/1



Ascot 2:45
Bishops Bridge 3/1
Briscoe Place 5/1
Wiscalitus 5/1
Turgeonev 6/1
Another Joker 9/1
king Coal 9/1

Nothing doing at the moment, though if 8 line up I think I may play Another Joker each way.



Ascto 3:20
Lou Du Moulin Mas 5/1
Harrys Dream 5/1
King Barry 11/2
Harris Bay 11/2
Liverpool Echo 16/1
Kety Star 16/1
Meehan 16/1

Boy the front two look short. I've always liked the price of the stars of small stables, which makes this an obvious bet.

King Barry 4pts win at 15/2



Ascot 3:55
Tarlac 5/4
Sir Laughalot 11/2
Mohawk Star 7/1
Festive Chimes 9/1
fait le Jojo 16/1
nation State 16/1
Linnet 16/1

With Tarlac at 4/5 I must have priced this wrong - it's thrown up a couple of bets though - an Emma Lavelle tenderly handled horse, and one you need to forgive a run.

Sir Laughalot 4pts win at 8/1
Festive Chimes 4pts win at 18/1



Exeter 1:45
Roofing Spirit 13/8
Pass Me a Dime 7/2
Albert Mooney 7/2
Avas Delight 4/1

Albert Mooney is making the book here, and if he jumps like he did on his debut...

roofing Spirit 6pts win at 2/1 (and I may go in again if he drifts in the face of support for Albert).



Kelso 2:00
No prices, but I'll keep following Culcabock in the belief he's well handicapped, and in a race where an odds on favourite ensures decent each way terms.

Culcabock 3pts ew at 9/1

Weekend Football 18th November

A very strange trio this weekend.

A slew of matches almost made the list. I'll monitor the following:

Portsmouth, Reading, Birmingham, Hull, Orient, macclesfield, and Ipswich.


Luton 5pts beat Derby at 6/4

Brighton 5pts beat Tranmere at 13/10

Grimsby (away) 5pts beat Wycombe at 5/1

Wednesday 15th November - racing

Southwell 3:00
www.theracingforum.co.uk
has a discussion thread on this race in the Daily lays and plays section.
Dancing Mystery 4pts win at 9/2
Zowington 4pts win at 15/2
half pt rev fc



Hexham 2:20
Kinburn 4pts win at 3/1
Elvis returns 4pts win at 12/1

Folkestone Tuesday 14th Nov

Folkestone 2:10
Magical Legend 2pts win at 15/2
Magical Legend 2pts ew at 13/2
Magical Legend and Retief Goosen 2pts ew double

Up against a very solid fave, but I really like this second fave - a steadier pace at 2m and he could take advantage of any effects Bonchester Bridge may be feeling after his race Saturday. With 8 runners (fingers crossed), there's ew opportunities as well, though hard to get on. I ended up having to find a golfer for the ew double! If the inevitable non runner arrives, I'm keen enough on her chances to be Ok about it.

Hong Kong Open golf

An eclectic four against the field here:


Jeev Singh 1.5pt ew at 33/1
Dyson 1.5pt ew at 40/1
Buckle 1pt ew at 66/1
Pilkardis 1pt ew at 150/1

I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here

Usually a profitable event, though I doubt we'll equal last year's Thatcher-fest at 33/1.


Let's take an early position anyway.

Jason Donovan 5pts win at 7/2
(solid favourite, and the male favourite (Tufnell, Pasquali) is often given a terrific edit in a programme utterly dependent on editing. We'd best keep him on-side early on)

Toby Anstis 3pts win at 12/1
(will have his fans and presented himself very well - allegedly - on a terrible celebrity programme on channel 5 recently)

Lauren Booth 2pts top woman at 5/1
(Mylene Klass looks a terrible price - she's loathsome and attractive, a poisounous combination for voters - and makes the market here. Lauren Booth is a simple stab in the dark)


No longshots appeal this time. Probably not an event for trading, unlike Big Brother.
We'll watch for a bit and then possibly go in again.

Leicester races 13th Nov

2:10 Leicester
Water Taxi 5pts at 9/2
(weak this morning , priced at 3s - against a 4yo allowance horse that struggles to win, and an irish raider).


2:40 Leicester
Elegant Cutter 4pts at 5/1
(just playing the prices - had at 4/1 - pretty tight at front end of market, but not a very competitve race overall).

Cheltenham Sunday 12th Nov

A couple of small bets on a difficult day.


Cheltenham 2:45
Sweet Wake 5pts at 5/2
(getting a lot of weight from Detroit City - priced them both at 2s)


Cheltenham 3:20
Paulo Dancer 5pts at 13/2
(weak this morning, and be hard to concede weight to Imperial Commander, plus Wichita Lineman is supposed to be super-special - but priced at 4s so a must bet).

Racing - Saturday 11th November.

Cheltenham 1:30
Il Duce 5pts at 14/1
(a bit of a wild punt against Denman this, but his run against Turko looks under-rated)


Cheltenham 3:10
Calusa Charlie 1pt ew at 40/1
(an eyecatcher - priced at 20s so nothing to get excited about)


Cheltenham 3:45
Idle Talk 5pts win at 11/2
Run For Paddy 4pts win at 9/1
half point rev fc
(I'm expecting big things from Idle Talk this year, and our Scottish national hero looks too long as well - priced at 6s)


Wetherby 2:55
Culcabock 4pts win at 4/1
(backed last time when he was given a poor ride - still looks well handicapped)


Wetherby 3:25
Jungle Jinks 2pts ew at 20/1
(taking a big chance on the horse's well-being here).

Cheltenham Friday 10th November

Prices still on escorialracing.

Cheltenham 1:20
Darby Wall 3pts at 11/2
(I can't resist chasing my losses from last time it ran and fell here, and priced at 9/2)


Cheltenham 2:30
Oneway 3pts win at 8/1
Medison 4pts win at 6/1


A very quiet day, so I'll also add some mug doubles to live it up.
10 x half point doubles
Darby Wall
Cuan Na Grai
Armaturk
Royal Auclair
Openide

Football Matches 11 Nov

Back to a more sensible 3 matches this weekend, with the FA cup avoided.


Everton 5pts beat Villa at 5/4

Middleborough 5pts beat West Ham at 5/4

Luton 5pts beat QPR at 11/10

Racing Wednesday 8th November

Bangor 2:10
A Glass in Thyne 2pts win at 12/1
Briery Fox 2pts win at 12/1
Simon 2pts win at 12/1
(Priced all of these at 8/1 which is a little short against a solid fave, but Distant Thunder makes them small value on my tissue)


Lingfield 3:00
Cossack Dancer 5pts win at 15/8
Smokey Mountain 1pt win at 11/1
(Legitimate fave, although all the other runners could be said to have chances including the outsider)

Racing - Sat 4th November

Disappointing card at my home track, but plenty of action at Wincanton and Churchill Downs.

Wincanton 2:45
Petitjean 4pts win at 7/1
(priced at 5s - think the front two look too short)


Wincanton 3:20
Parsons Legacy 5pts win at 20/1
(Priced at 9s - and not alone - thoug very weak this morning)


Wincanton 3:55
Crow Wood 5pts win at 11/2
(Priced at 4s - conditions perfect and gets a load of weight from the hotpot)


Breeder Cup - Fillies and Mares
Satwa Queen 3pts ew at PMU
Honey Ryder 3pts win at 8/1
(Satwa Queen priced at 9/2 - slipped under radar, should place, already have ante post bet as well)


Breeders Cup Mile
Echo of Light 4pts at 9/1
(fair play - just a love bet)


Breeders Cup Turf
Cacique 5pts win at 9/2
TH Approval 3pts win at 11/1
(Hurricane Run helps make my book, priced Cacique at 7/2 - should love conditions).

Football matches 4 November

The ratings have thrown up 10 matches this week. And in a strange (and slightly worrying) turn of events, they have highlighted a lot of odds on home teams. Umm.


Fulham 5pts beat Everton at 9/5

Newcastle 5pts beat Sheff Utd at 5/6

Norwich 5pts beat Sunderland at 11/8

Preston 5pts beat Luton at 8/11

Crewe 5pts beat Port Vale at 5/4

Doncaster 5pts beat Orient at 4/5

Huddersfield 5pts beat Scunthorpe at 11/8

Boston 5pts beat Notts Co at 7/4

Hartlepool 5pts beat Barnet at 4/5

Swindon 5pts beat Hereford at 4/5

Haydock 2 November

You can still see the tissue for free at escorial - whilst you can I won't bother repeating it.

Here's the bets.

2:10 Culcabock 2pts win at 10/1
(looks favourably handicapped, and fairly priced. Not exactly a prolific winner though and a place bet probably more sensible for those who like that sort of thing!)


2:10 and 2:45
Culcabock and College Ace 2pts ew double.

Summary

Here's the end of month summary of profit and loss since start of blog:


Football
Points out 1148
Pounts in 1226
% returns 107%
(Looks like we've got over the World Cup blues.)


Football matches 2006/2007 season
Points out 341
Points in 407
% returns 119%
(Started off well. My fingers are firmly crossed for this one)



Golf
Points out 336
Points in 237
% returns 70%
(No reason to believe me, but remarkably I had Jeev Singh last week at 125/1, but for some reason didn't include him in my tips on here - typical, but suffice to say I'm happier now with the golf fund than at any other time this season!)


Racing
Points out 56
Points in 76
% returns 135%


Racing - jumps season 2006/7
Points out 109
Points in 83
% returns 76%
(early days)


Others
Points out 69
Points in 170
% returns 246%
(and we'll be able to add the Ryan Moore champion jockey winnings shortly)


All
Points out 1718
Points in 1791
% returns 104%

Huntingdon 1st November

Chilling Place's fall not a help yesterday!

Tissue for today's race:

Handy Money 5/2
Big Rob 5/2
Blairgowie 7/1
Spinaround 9/1

Not a competitive race for me, and I'm not a fan of Big Rob. The market tends to be though.

Handy Money 4pts win at 11/4