Long-time readers, those who remember the good years, not the Saturday Gambler years I'm reduced to, will know that my key betting question is why might the odds be wrong.
And one of those is blind patriotism, and tomorrow morning's Scotland/England showdowns is one where the prices are just wrong. No doubt England are the stronger team, and should ease their way to the semi-finals, but not at 1.2 Somewhere between 1.4 and 1.5 maybe.
They've spent a decade scraping through matches on Wilkinson's boot and not even that is guaranteed tomorrow, nor is their ability to play the referee. The price is further skewed by the notion that Scotland will have to play loose to win by 8 points, but that's white noise adding another point to an already generous handicap.
If I was still a pro I'd be playing +10.5 for profit and Scotland at 6s for glory. Of course, as we know I'm no longer a pro...
Be lucky...
Friday, September 30, 2011
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Cambridgeshire
Running out of time to land my first flat winner!
And not the easiest place to start. Still, three prices I do like:
Credit Swap - why not a repeat success in a quirky race?
Albaqaa - progressive?
Pendragon - will love conditions and can improve on last year's placing
There's been a bias to front-runners this meeting (I haven't seen any racing but am guessing a tailwind). Maqaraat in position to benefit, and can hopefully drag a couple of mine along with him.
Football - Hartlepool look too big at 2/1 at Bournemouth.
Credit Swap £10ew at 33/1
Pendragon £10ew at 40/1
Albaqaa £15ew at 20/1
Music Show (can't resist, but boy has she been disappointing this year) £10 at 20/1
Music Show/Credit Swap and Pendragon and Albaqaa/Golden Delicious trebles
to win £30000+
Be lucky....
And not the easiest place to start. Still, three prices I do like:
Credit Swap - why not a repeat success in a quirky race?
Albaqaa - progressive?
Pendragon - will love conditions and can improve on last year's placing
There's been a bias to front-runners this meeting (I haven't seen any racing but am guessing a tailwind). Maqaraat in position to benefit, and can hopefully drag a couple of mine along with him.
Football - Hartlepool look too big at 2/1 at Bournemouth.
Credit Swap £10ew at 33/1
Pendragon £10ew at 40/1
Albaqaa £15ew at 20/1
Music Show (can't resist, but boy has she been disappointing this year) £10 at 20/1
Music Show/Credit Swap and Pendragon and Albaqaa/Golden Delicious trebles
to win £30000+
Be lucky....
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Ayr Gold Cup
Wonder if I'll pick a winner of a flat race this season!
Running out of time, and I can't say the Ayr Gold Cup is one of my favourite races.
Still. I think the Fahey horses and Pepper Lane should make low the place to be. My tissue has Mayson as favourite, so let's start there, solid each way at 5 places.
The two to back him up are Kaldoun Kingdom and the Irish raider Croisultan.
In the football, I'm taken with QPR at 3/1 or better at Wolves, and Bradford at 4/1 or better to beat shell-shocked Crawley. Back at Ayr, he's no price but Poet could get a soft lead in the listed race. These can all make up the 1000/1 four fold
£25ew Moysan 18/1
£10 Kaldoun Kingdom 16/1
£10 Croisultan 16/1
and fcs
£10 acca Moysan/QPR/Bradford/Poet for c £10000
Be lucky...
Running out of time, and I can't say the Ayr Gold Cup is one of my favourite races.
Still. I think the Fahey horses and Pepper Lane should make low the place to be. My tissue has Mayson as favourite, so let's start there, solid each way at 5 places.
The two to back him up are Kaldoun Kingdom and the Irish raider Croisultan.
In the football, I'm taken with QPR at 3/1 or better at Wolves, and Bradford at 4/1 or better to beat shell-shocked Crawley. Back at Ayr, he's no price but Poet could get a soft lead in the listed race. These can all make up the 1000/1 four fold
£25ew Moysan 18/1
£10 Kaldoun Kingdom 16/1
£10 Croisultan 16/1
and fcs
£10 acca Moysan/QPR/Bradford/Poet for c £10000
Be lucky...
Saturday, September 10, 2011
St Leger
I'm under the weather this morning but the St Leger prices are also hurting my head.
My tissue had Sea Moon at 6/4, and Seville backable too.
Make of it what you will, I'll just throw the money.
£80 Sea Moon 2/1
£20 Seville 10/1
Be lucky...
My tissue had Sea Moon at 6/4, and Seville backable too.
Make of it what you will, I'll just throw the money.
£80 Sea Moon 2/1
£20 Seville 10/1
Be lucky...
Saturday, September 03, 2011
Haydock Sprint
Two races worth playing today, and of course I fully expect to win the scoop 6 with my £8 perm later...need to after a week's holiday in Copenhagen!
The 1m6f handicap doesn't look too hot. Tominator (£25 at 8/1) has every chance if there's enough pace, and Shernando (£25 at 9/1) looks progressive enough. With Pricewise interfering the prices aren't much to get excited about but I'll play.
In the sprint, Bated Breath (£25 at 7/1) has his conditions and I suppose is bet of the day. However, I can't let Delegator (£15 at 10/1) go unbacked against my better judgement, and we need to do a saver on Hoof It (£10 at 11/2) back at 6f.
Be lucky...
The 1m6f handicap doesn't look too hot. Tominator (£25 at 8/1) has every chance if there's enough pace, and Shernando (£25 at 9/1) looks progressive enough. With Pricewise interfering the prices aren't much to get excited about but I'll play.
In the sprint, Bated Breath (£25 at 7/1) has his conditions and I suppose is bet of the day. However, I can't let Delegator (£15 at 10/1) go unbacked against my better judgement, and we need to do a saver on Hoof It (£10 at 11/2) back at 6f.
Be lucky...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
