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Paddy Power Day Cheltenham

I'll go for three outsiders in the Paddy Power itself: Divers and Quantitative Easing represent the novice handicap form from the festival. People are crabbing that in comparison to the Wishful Thinking form which is fair enough, but weight and prices more than compensate. And I feel obliged to throw in Fine Parchment ew as well, as an old friend, albeit one in very deep here.

The previous race is a shocker, and the only one I couldn't crab is Chicago Grey. I'll cover Hey Big Spender as well at the price.

As for football, we may be gash, but 5/1 England is a bit silly - you can immediately arb it on betfair for starters. I'd go 7/2 tops, and don't come on here laughing when we've been beaten 5-0! Chuck in Northampton at a generous 9/4 to beat Luton in the cup.


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Ascot Champion's Day

Frankel has to be opposed at the price, on no good grounds, and the one who stands out is Immortal Verse (£40 8/1). Poet's Voice and Dick Turpin also silly prices so worth fivers each just in case we have a typical end of season day.

So You Think also opposable by half the field, as you wish. I'll major on Dubai Prince and add in Nehaam for an each way treble.

For football betting - Stoke look the wrong price at home to Fulham. My team remain gash away from home, and I'd rather write off the 6-0 derby win as a freak. Stoke have only had 17 shots all season, apparently. Best save on 0-0!

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Cesarewitch

So, one last chance for the season, in one of my favourite races, the one with the quirky draw bias.

My darts against the field include two of the favourites but at these prices that's OK.

Sentry Duty and Beyond have the conditions, draw, and trainers. One for the frame at a price is Bow to No one each way



For football fans: Brentford at Carlisle at 2/1+ and Liechtenstein can give Scotland a game again - 9/2+ the draw is too long.


And, of course, as regulars will know, the England rugby price was terrible!



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Arc de Triomphe

Opposing Sarafina and So You Think in the ante post market has left me with a nice looking book, with Workforce, Galikova, Snow Fairy, Reliable Man, Hiruno Damour and St Nicholas Abbey all providing profit.

But now it's time to decide and despite Pricewise beating me to it, I'm siding with Hiruno Damour. It's about time the Japanese landed this, and in a race where you can make a case for and against the entire field, he's the one who looks priced wrong. Reliable Man at double figures also.


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Scotland v England

Long-time readers, those who remember the good years, not the Saturday Gambler years I'm reduced to, will know that my key betting question is why might the odds be wrong.

And one of those is blind patriotism, and tomorrow morning's Scotland/England showdowns is one where the prices are just wrong. No doubt England are the stronger team, and should ease their way to the semi-finals, but not at 1.2 Somewhere between 1.4 and 1.5 maybe.

They've spent a decade scraping through matches on Wilkinson's boot and not even that is guaranteed tomorrow, nor is their ability to play the referee. The price is further skewed by the notion that Scotland will have to play loose to win by 8 points, but that's white noise adding another point to an already generous handicap.

If I was still a pro I'd be playing +10.5 for profit and Scotland at 6s for glory. Of course, as we know I'm no longer a pro...



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Cambridgeshire

Running out of time to land my first flat winner!

And not the easiest place to start. Still, three prices I do like:
Credit Swap - why not a repeat success in a quirky race?
Albaqaa - progressive?
Pendragon - will love conditions and can improve on last year's placing

There's been a bias to front-runners this meeting (I haven't seen any racing but am guessing a tailwind). Maqaraat in position to benefit, and can hopefully drag a couple of mine along with him.


Football - Hartlepool look too big at 2/1 at Bournemouth.


Credit Swap £10ew at 33/1
Pendragon £10ew at 40/1
Albaqaa £15ew at 20/1

Music Show (can't resist, but boy has she been disappointing this year) £10 at 20/1


Music Show/Credit Swap and Pendragon and Albaqaa/Golden Delicious trebles
to win £30000+


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Ayr Gold Cup

Wonder if I'll pick a winner of a flat race this season!

Running out of time, and I can't say the Ayr Gold Cup is one of my favourite races.

Still. I think the Fahey horses and Pepper Lane should make low the place to be. My tissue has Mayson as favourite, so let's start there, solid each way at 5 places.

The two to back him up are Kaldoun Kingdom and the Irish raider Croisultan.


In the football, I'm taken with QPR at 3/1 or better at Wolves, and Bradford at 4/1 or better to beat shell-shocked Crawley. Back at Ayr, he's no price but Poet could get a soft lead in the listed race. These can all make up the 1000/1 four fold


£25ew Moysan 18/1
£10 Kaldoun Kingdom 16/1
£10 Croisultan 16/1
and fcs

£10 acca Moysan/QPR/Bradford/Poet for c £10000



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St Leger

I'm under the weather this morning but the St Leger prices are also hurting my head.

My tissue had Sea Moon at 6/4, and Seville backable too.

Make of it what you will, I'll just throw the money.

£80 Sea Moon 2/1
£20 Seville 10/1



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Haydock Sprint

Two races worth playing today, and of course I fully expect to win the scoop 6 with my £8 perm later...need to after a week's holiday in Copenhagen!

The 1m6f handicap doesn't look too hot. Tominator (£25 at 8/1) has every chance if there's enough pace, and Shernando (£25 at 9/1) looks progressive enough. With Pricewise interfering the prices aren't much to get excited about but I'll play.

In the sprint, Bated Breath (£25 at 7/1) has his conditions and I suppose is bet of the day. However, I can't let Delegator (£15 at 10/1) go unbacked against my better judgement, and we need to do a saver on Hoof It (£10 at 11/2) back at 6f.


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Ebor

Is it really six years since the great Sergeant Cecil kicked off a right royal hooley in my old house in Tooting? It's the last time I picked the winner that's for sure.

14 horses have credible chances of winning this, so it's throwing darts time. Cill Rialaig and the canny Hughie Morrison have to be included, and Harlestone Times is probably wrongly-priced now having flunked twice. Chuck in Neeham, with money back if we can get one in the frame.

In the Melrose Wayward Glance caught my eye and then got the thumbs-up from Gerald Delamere.

And in the listed 2 miler Opinion Poll and Harris Tweed look rock solid, with Dandino also worthy of support at the prices, in a race full of horses I don't much care for.

So, something like:
Opinion Poll £25 7/2
Harris Tweed £15 7/2
Dandino £10 11/1

Wayward Glance £10ew at 25/1

Neeham £10ew 20/1
Harlestone Times £10ew 25/1
CillRilaig £10 ew 22/1
(1st 5, bog)


Dandino/Wayward Glance and the three Ebor darts in trebles to win the 50k



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Following Losers

As I continue my quest for a flat winner, whilst only watching a couple of races a week, this morning I find myself looking at two horses that have already lost for me twice each this season.

My prices suggest they remain value, but my prices aren't worth what they were!

Still, chocks away.

£40 Yaseer 11/1
£40 Delegator 6/1
£10 double
£10 Frankie 4 timer



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Rose of Lancaster

I'm not sure I've backed a winner this flat season. Just as well I had that run of big-priced winners at the start of the year. This is what comes of only watching a couple of races a week as opposed to a couple of hundred.

Doesn't seem much point studying form, so I'll go for a jockey this week. Neil Callan goes to Haydock to ride Hot Prospect - the new twist on the old M Jarvis/P Robinson foray to Haydock. What I know of the form and conditions makes the horse look plausible. He then attempts to get back to Newmarket for the outsider in the last. Less plausible, but I'm smitten.

For the treble, why not try Freddie Jacobsen, tucked in behind the leaders in the golf - if only to stop you wasting money on the farce that is Ascot.

Something like
£60 Hot Prospect at 4/1
£10 Bella Noir at 20/1
£10ew double
£10 tbl with Freddie returns about 20k


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The Stewards Cup

Fingers crossed our horse doesn't die this afternoon.

Tipsters today:

1) One of the longest-standing systems I look out for is when a respected tipster goes out on a limb on a long-priced one. It takes a lot of faith, and deep gut instinct to commit yourself to print on a horse written off by others, trust me, particularly if you're a respected judge. And there's hardly a better judge of sprinters than Emily Weber so it's notable that not only has she spotlighted Brave Prospector this morning, but actually napped him. 33/1 must be a play if, like me, you missed 40s.

2) I always read Gerald Delamere's thoughts closely. Strange then that I've had a humdrum Goodwood (which I thankfully spared you!), and yet he's picked 8 winners from 11 bets this week according to the front page of the Racing Post. Which advertisement probably explains why Colonel Mak is all the rage this morning. Does look like a plot horse though.

3) My own pick is Crown Choice at 20/1+. I'll back all three and do forecasts and for the get rich treble perm them with Novellen lad and Investissement.


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King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes

This needn't detain us long. Ladbrokes go 4/1 guaranteed about Rewilding. Which is too long. I like that Ladbrokes no longer have their prices on oddschecker, it makes them willing to take a stance, and I'll hope they're wrong this time. Workforce worthy favourite but you have to worry about his run in this last year, Ascot is a strange track at the best of times. Frankie, small field, Ascot, pacemaker, kid on St Nicholas Abbey, all positives. I priced closer to 5/2.

Hanagan stays up in York for some humdrum looking rides, god day to chuck some doubles to stop yourself playing too many races otherwise...enjoy the sun, or settle down to the cricket and Tour De France...

Rewilding £75 win at 4/1



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July Cup and John Smith's Day and...

I'm convinced Delegator is way better than these. The draw is a worry, but presumably Frankie will drop him in for cover anyway. £50 at 5/1 looks very fair.

At Ascot Side Glance would be co-fave in my book, so he has to be a play. £30 win at 5/2.

And in the John Smith's. I haven't seen much racing this year but thought Kay Gee Bee's race at York was a sighter for this and interested that Hanagan keeps the faith. You can forgive a horse any Ascot outing, particularly if this was the target. You have to worry about the trip, but that's in the price at 28/1. £15ew

It's a 600/1 treble, so you'd best chuck a few quid at that as well.

Coral Eclipse

Workforce is a big price for a horse with the best form. And may touch 2s later. That'll do me for today.

£90 at 7/4
£10 treble Workforce, Electrolyser and Circumvent


and I'll also be hoping Kvitova holds her nerve later at 10/1


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Northumberland Plate

Pricewise reckons Tominator reminds him of Sergeant Cecil. Blimey that's worth a fiver, then!

There look to be stronger horses running though, Harlsetone Times and Deauville Flyer for two. They seem the right price though, and the one who looks a bit too long is Investissement. I'll go for him and save on the other two.

Newmarket 3:20 A mess of a race with some horses opposable at their prices. Which inevitably leaves me with two looking too long this morning. I'll back them both and do the forecast. Inler and Pausanias.

£100 could look like:
Investissement £25 at 9/1
Harlestone Times £13 at 7/1
Deauville Flyer £12 at 8/1

Inler £20 at 12/1
Pausanias £20 at 10/1
and 2.50 combination exacta

and for the treble Investissement/Pausanias and Afsare


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Ascot - Saturday

Was going to have thump at Delegator if he'd stood his ground. As I haven't backed a winner all week that would have been a nice shit and bust finale.

Instead I'll play the Wokingham, and the two at the prices are:
Fastha and Victoire De Lyphar

Keep it simple, plus do the forecast.

and a sneaky ew double Fastha and Hitchens.




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Royal Ascot - Thursday

Carnage yesterday - glad I'm a fun gambler these days. There'd have been blood on the walls yesterday.

Gold Cup looks wide open to me. Looking for something that could improve for extra trip at a long price. Andre Fabre's only runner this week has to be selected. Prescott hardly comes here for the fun of it either and Motrice should love the extra distance.
Bet365 going 1/3rd place terms if you can get it.

Motrice 10ew 20/1
Brigantin 10ew 20/1

Everyday Dave and Dorcas Lane for the trebles.


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