Saturday Nov 10th

A good week so far. My betting week used to build up slowly to a make or break Saturday. Since the change in approach Saturday has become a day for caution. Frankly I'm finding this a difficult adjustment to make. However, I think today I've managed to avoid most of the obvious competitive handicaps, (so far at least).

The horses that interest me most today as betting propositions are:

1:05 Kelso
Calculaite. 3/1+
This one cost us last time out when he ran far too free. He jumped very well though and should come on for that. There's little depth to the race and more importantly I don't like the favourite much, He travels well, but I remain unconvinced and think that 2m on quick ground could hardly suit less.

2:20 Winc
Joe Lively. 6/4+
His beating of Iced Tea (who looks a good horse) looks rock solid. His price should be held above 6/4 due to the Nicholls effect.

2:25 Sandown
Bubble Boy 6/1+
More speculative. Particularly on recent form. However, Powell's horses have taken off this week. Better still, Bubble Boy should get a soft lead and that's a very good thing indeed in small field Sandown chases. I'm hoping there'll be the potential to trade out in-running.

2:50 Winc
Kings Quay 4/1+
Quinn knows what it takes to win this and Kings Quay should have the speed and strength to do for a bunch of last year's juveniles.

I won a tasty five figure sum at this Wincanton fixture last year. Parsons Legacy at big odds did the most damage. I have nothing like that this time, but here's hoping!

£500 Challenge
Calculaite £15 win at 3/1+

Friday 9th November

Wolves was good for us last night. And Hayley Turner continues to impress. I do like jockeys who keep it simple.

Another grim day today. I'll keep an eye on the jockey's championship. I think plenty of their mounts are going to start artificially short – Double Banded springs to mind.

In the 8:55 at Wolves they ride the two faves and if the game's still afoot I can see these two shortening up and everything else drifting. That being so I'm keen on backing a horse to place in that race at inflated odds. Two to choose from. The Balding horse looks far from straightforward and is being backed this morning. That leaves Vivacita. You need to forgive her last run, but that done, with stable in good form, and Catlin to give her an uncomplicated ride, she'll do for today's press up.

£500 Challenge
£15 Vivacita to place at 6/4 (hopefully bigger).

Thurs 8th Nov

I've just read Dave Nevison's book. It zips along. In fact I read it in one sitting. Then again, I did the same with Frank Worthington's “One Hump or Two?”. I enjoyed it thoroughly but think it may have raised more questions for me than answers.

Some of the inconsistencies actually kept me awake last night, which I guess puts me in the anorak class as opposed to the type who spends his evenings chasing 'ropey old tote bird' types around hotel bars!

I'm interested how he can be banned from every spread betting company, yet can get £10000 antepost on both Detroit City and Kauto Star. I'm especially intrigued by the latter as I remember well being knocked back to £50 personally, and I only wanted a ton on!

I'm also taken by his tissue compiling skills. He has a forecast 5/2 fave in at 10/1 on his tissue on one page. and throughout the discrepancies between his prices and the bookies are similarly large.

When that happens to me my first thought is that it's me who has made a mistake, and most times that's the right thought!

Still, there's always something to take from these books and I'm grateful to Dave, not just for entertaining me, but for reminding me of the old adage “Scared money is dead money”. Reading his gung-ho approach to betting and staking I was left thinking that the title of the book was completely wrong. It should have been called “A Bloody Good Loser”. By which I mean, it seems he has a real edge in how he copes with losing money. My guess is his days as an FX trader innured him against fear of big numbers. Also, he leaves someone more detail-conscious to manage the books. This means, unlike me, he isn't obsessed by his current fund price, current losing streak and lack of liquidity. He seems to be able to drop telephone numbers daily and still get back in the saddle and head straight for the guns. This adage joins my “post-it note wall”.

Today's racing is terrible. Slipperytoad will be glad to hear that the sandpit actually looks more inviting than both jumps meetings!

Wolves 8:50
Chia doesn't win. She's a very consistent filly though, and would be a good bet for a place at evens.

£500 Challenge
8:50 Wolves
£15 Chia to place at Evens

Weds 7th November

Nice one with Leeds yesterday.

Today I was hoping the Racing Post tissue price would be available about Big Rob! He's now 9/4 (and under on betfair). His form makes you pause before considering that price, but he looked the winner of this race two years ago before falling, and won it cosily last year, before going off the rails thereafter. This year he's off less weight and gets weight from all his rivals. More importantly, all 4 of his rivals are front runners and this really should fall in his lap.

I'm not sure I'll press up myself, but on a quiet day he may as well make the daily challenge bet.

2:40 Huntingdon
£15 win Big Rob 9/4

Tues 6th Nov

Two decent small field jumps races at Exeter today.

2:50
An interesting shape. People thinking Fair Along and Pablo Du Charmil could get into a duel, but you'd hope the jockeys wouldn't be that stupid. I hope not because I really don't like the three challengers. Saintsaire and Royal Shakespeare have just never convinced me they are chasers, and Hasty Prince needs 2m4f or an end to end gallop. I can see Fair Along drifting to a backable price (say 6/4).

3:20
In a way even more intersting, because based on his debut Moon Over Miami didn't look like he'd make it as a chaser, and particularly not right handed. I like the fact Space Cowboy takes him on again, but he didn't look much either. Templer looks solid. Prices will decide the strategy but essentially it's to be against MoM.

Football.
Leeds get a quick chance to bounce back from the weekend defeat. I have them at 4/6 at the longest to beat a woeful Bournemouth side. They're around 1.9 at the moment. That has to be too long.

£500 Challenge
£15 Leeds win at 1.9

Monday 5th November

Ouninpohja went from 1.9 to 1.5 for the place on Saturday, so I guess Harry lost more than us! Lack of pace was the problem and I'm not sure I even looked at that in such a big field 2m handicap.

Still, Betfair comes into its own in 8 runner races when there's a withdrawal so Monkerhostin's 3^rd was welcome, and Blackburn hanging on left the challenge up for the weekend. Sadly my own betting didn't fare so well. As usual.

Onwards.

There's a couple of fairly solid place horses for small stables in novice hurdles today. I'll be backing them both at better than 4/6. The favourites should keep the prices competitive, so let's play an old fashioned game and see if the bookies will play.

£500 challenge
£7.50 ew double (at around 4/1 each)
Stagehand 1:10 Warwick
Hansomelle 1:30 Plumpton

Saturday Nov 3rd

I didn't fully appreciate just how much warmer London is to the Midlands until I moved up here. On Thursday/Friday I was walking around town in t-shirt – surrounded by people all wrapped up. All those northern football fans with their tops off at Craven Cottage over the years is beginning to make some sense!

The Royal Parks were looking great in their autumn plumage by the way – anyone close to town should get there quickish.

Busy day today, with some early season trepidation.

Ascot 1:40
He may be a dog, but Ouninpohja places as regular as you like. There's a few ways to play this, and if you've got accounts that will let you place each way bets you could do worse than take the 4/1 and lay off the win portion for an evens place bet. Or , if braver, lay-off the win bet in-running. He's close to 10/11 in the place only market and that may be simplest of all. I'll probably combine all three approaches.

Ascot 2:10
Two horses suited by likely conditions at nice prices are Full House and Briery Fox. I haven't decided how to play them at the moment.

Wetherby 3:30
You can have doubts about all of these. State of Play would be the most legitimate contender. One way in could be the pace angle because there's every chance of this being a tear-up, especially if Ollie Magern runs with the choke out again. I think that could give Monkerhostin a great chance of plugging on for a place. He looked to have gone at the game last year – over-raced the season before – but fresh may be the best time to catch him, and his form in the King George and Gold Cup wasn't too shabby.

Football
Can't find a way in to the big match, although Arsenal may still be vulnerable at set pieces, so, despite having described this type of bet at dinner last night as a “mug punters, mug punter bet”, I'll have a very small go on Vidic ew as first goalscorer!

My long-term opposition to Liverpool continues and I think Blackburn are still being underrated. I'm happy to take them at 4/6 on the Asians to win or draw.

I'd throw Leeds, Watford and Stoke into the mix and Oldham at 3/1 or better isn't to be sniffed at.

£500 Challenge

Ascot 1:40
Ouininphja - £15 place at 4/5+

Wetherby 3:30
Monkerhostin - £15 place at 6/4+

Blackburn £15 +0.5 4/6+

Weds 31st October - Challenge summary

End of the month and here's how the £500 challenge is faring.

£500 Challenge summary
Current standing £583.49

Returns running at 108% (which is not very good considering the aims of this fund)

Football
13 bets – 6 wins – 123% returns

Racing
40 bets – 17 wins – 127% returns

Other bets (golf and rugby mainly) – ooops.

Today I like a few to place in uncompetitive events but will wait on the prices. The one I will put up here as the challenge bet is weak at the moment and looks value on an eye-catching run over course and distance on her debut.

£500 Challenge
Nottingham 2:50
Filligree £15 place at 2/1+

Tuesday Oct 30th

It's been a busy month for moving around the country. I'm back for a couple of days before going back to London for a few more welcome hours paid work and beers with friends. Then off to Darlington to see more friends Saturday. So some sporadic postings I expect.

This is usually one of the two periods of the year I all but stop betting on the horses anyway (the period between Grand National and Guineas being the other). Indeed, we usually have our main holiday around now and were going back to Yosemite and wine country this year, but the floods put that on hold. Now my wife has given up her new job – which she hated – so we ought to guard the pennies anyway. It's not like I've been contributing much this year!

Today's racing is terrible. I'm fairly determined to do a challenge bet every day I can find anything, otherwise the blog will just fade away. So step forward What's For Tea at Wolverhampton. The trainer looks to know what he's doing at this track and is in good heart. The opposition is rubbish and I'm happy to have Hayley forcing the fractions. On the other hand she's odds-on in a claimer. I think if we do get a price we may want to get out in-running.

£500 Challenge
Wolves 2:50
What's For Tea £15 win at 11/10+

Thurs 25th Oct

The weekend's successes are beginning to resemble a dead-cat bounce on my graph.

And now it looks like my wife has just failed to get a job she really wanted in a photo finish.We're very lucky people who count our blessings daily, but this year is really trying my patience.

Still, tomorrow I'm off to Brighton for my annual “forget you're 40odd and act like a big kid” shindig with old work colleagues. If that doesn't cheer me up nothing will. It means no postings until Sunday at the earliest.

Not much to suggest today I'm afraid. I think I'll play Calculaite win and place, but an untested novice chaser from a trainer awaiting his first winner of the season is no horse for the Challenge.

Weds 24th October

I made a rather bad mistake yesterday. I overlooked the fact that Willyandwoody was a new addition to Harry Findlay's stable. Although it went unbacked, which led to my selection going off favourite, I don't think I'd have opposed the Nicholls' horse if I'd known. He looked like he may be half-decent as well.

Today there's a terrible set of cards. I looked at whether there was some ew doubles action around some of the maidens, but they look desperate backend affairs.

Football will have to fill the gap.

Shakhtar Donetsk look under-rated against a stuttering AC Milan.

£500 Challenge
£15 Shakhtar Donetsk +1.5 at 1.6+

Tuesday October 23rd

No good yesterday.

Some moderately interesting small field races at Exeter today. Not much else. I'll mainly wait on prices.

3:40 Exeter

This race interests me most. Nicholls' horse should go off warm favourite. However, it's anyone's guess how good he is, and Nicholls' horses didn't seem to be finishing off their races very well at Cheltenham. Sir Bathwick on the other hand ran a decent if unspectacular race first time up at Sedgefield and could give him a race. I'm inclined to save on a weak Niche Market as well.

£500 Challenge
Sir Bathwick £13 win at 9/4+
Niche Market £2 win at 14/1+

Monday Oct 22nd

Just one race of interest today.

Plumpton 2:20
McCoy gets onto Soulard who looks sure to be heavily backed as a consequence. Wouldn't deserve to be anywhere near 5/4 on achievements though. He should beat Count Kristo Ok, and the only newcomer is one of Jonjo's, so one could assume that's not up to much. Boot N Toot is down to claimers, and Ohana has pieces of form but the jockey has to be a real worry. Which leaves Art Market – rated the same as these off the flat. This is the Moore clan's course and I (and the Racing Post) expected him to be second favourite this morning. True, it's always worrying when that happens. In this instance I think I'll plough on regardless.

£500 Challenge
Art Market
£5 win at 10/1+ and £10 place at 7/4+

Sat 20th Oct

Thanks to slipperytoad for his company and generosity last night at Wolverhampton races. It's always a good thing to visit a course at least once – it really gives you a better idea as to the course confirmation. And since I'm now playing in the sand-pit a visit to Dunstall Park was well overdue.

Nice winner for the challenge yesterday as well.

Good racing today, but the sort of card to put me right back where I started if I'm not careful.

I don't think there's an obvious challenge horse. I do like a few long shots who could at least grab a place. So I'll share them here anyway.

Candidato Roy 2:05 Nmkt 9/1
I fancied him for that race the other week – indeed a friend backed him on the strength of a phone call to me, whilst I naturally didn't! He may be under-rated on the basis of having apparently stolen the ascot race. At least he's finishing the season fresh and on a high, not something you can say for many of these.

Mount Nelson 3:15 Nmkt 16/1
Weak this morning. Noticeable that Ladbrokes go shortest him and longest Eagle Mountain. Again the angle is freshness is a big advantage at this time of the season, and if anyone can get him into shape first time out it's that stable.

Carraciola 3:55 Nmkt 50/1
No obvious chance. I have Macorville and Dr Sharp in the bank already, and this one just keeps staring at me. Not sure why as I always oppose him on the jumps. Henderson's record at long distance flat races at grade 1 tracks stands the closest scrutiny and the place price just looks too big.

Veenwouden Nmkt 5:05 16/1
A poor race and not many with chances. Veenwouden was ridden to get the place last time, but just maybe he could have won ridden more adventurously. He's also fresh and in form.

The prices tell you how good their chances really are, but it's that sort of day.

For the challenge – how about something simple like

6 x £1ew doubles

4 x 50pew singles

Fri Oct 19th - challenge

£500 challenge

Let's get this back on the road for the new jumps season. With a bet at Newmarket!

5:30 Greek Envoy

You have to forgive his last run. Having done that, 7/1 looks far too long – in fact take away his last run and 4/1 would be closer to the mark. We should probably go win only, given the chance of him blowing out completely, but I think I'm going to focus on ew betting for the £500 challenge on the horses. It will give me a chance to use it as a measuring control on one area of betting I am concentrating on.

Greek Envoy £7.50ew at 7/1 guaranteed.

Friday Oct 19th

I've been off doing some work for a few days. In Bradford for my sins. And that just goes to show how bad my season was. This flat season has been my worst not just since I went full-time, but since I started keeping records close on 10 years ago.

I think I already knew that my 'edge' had gone, and that I lost it at least 18 months ago, but some multiple bets and an extraordinary Cheltenham papered over the obvious.

However, the last few weeks have given me renewed vigour as I think I can see the way forward. A new edge if you like.

Unfortunately for this blog it couldn't be further away from my old style. It looks at races I wouldn't even have looked at previously, and at markets I'd never have played in. And both of these are unlikely to be of much interest to the average punter. And I also have eschewed early prices and pretty much only play late on now. Plus, the 'tissue' side of it is fairly redundant, focusing as that did on the big races (and wasn't making money!).

So, where to go with this blog? I'm inclined to kill it off – after all I don't live in Tooting anymore and won't be putting up daily tissues.

Even the £500 challenge, which got to the heady heights of £750 mid-season, crashed back down to its starting point as my summer drowned.

However, on balance, I think I'll continue with the blog. I'll carry on with the challenge, and also use this place as a repository for on-going musings on all things betting, and for giving myself the occasional talking to.

Saturday 6th October

A late play on No To Trident at Wolverhampton of all places recovered some of yesterday's losses. Still a very good week, although baldfred obviously knows more about Accrington than I do!

A few tissues for old time's sake today.

Newmarket 2:45
Creachadoir 3/1
Jumbajukiba 3/1
Tabosas 11/2
King of Argos 20/1
Caldra 20/1

Really like the Irish raider here and I'll back him to place at around Evens.

Newmarket 3:20
Echelon 7/4
Nannina 7/2
Simply Perfect 7/2

Think the latter flattered in the Falmouth, and Nannina needs to find some form. Echelon rock solid.

Newmarket 3:55
Pipedreamer 6/1
Monte Alto 9/1
Supaseus 10/1
Teslin 10/1
The Illies 10/1
Docofthebay 10/1
Greek well 10/1
Mutajarred 20/1
Seabow 20/1
Fremen 20/1
Escape Route 20/1

Most of the unexposed horses actually have to carry penalties. The one that stands out on my prices is Supaseus, who goes best fresh and who the ever shrewd Morrisson seems to have kept back for this. I'll back him to place.

I haven't forgotten that one of the best ways I make my profits is by landing a few winners in abunch in doubles or trebles. Just because I'm playing the place market now I don't intend to throw that baby away. So, I'll include these three in any multiples.

Kempton 4:20
For my bet of the day I'm going to the sand again – (slipperytoad will be pleased!)
SriKuantan – to place.

Not much depth in this race and the fave may be overbet.

Football
Staying in the bottom tier and with some trepidation too, but I have Rochdale at solid odds-on to beat Bury and you can just about get Evens on the asians if you shop around.

£500 Challenge
SriKuantan £15 to place at Evens or better

Running Total
£527.49

Friday October 5th

Another good day yesterday. One reason for changing my approach was that before I had many more losing days than winning ones, given the odds I was betting at. It breaks your spirit waiting for the couple of days that are going to provide the profit. The new approach will hopefully lend itself to many more winning days.

As the man who threw himself off the skyscraper said “so far so good”!

Today's potential bets.

Musselburgh 2:55
Mangham – place. Bonny Rose looks a chancer but should place which only leaves us with one place to chase. That looks between Mangham and the Prescott horse. Prescott has a great strike-rate with his two year olds here. Have to think the horse is one for handicaps over much further next year though.

Newmarket 3:50
Crime Scene – place. Two strongish favourites, Crime Scene, and then the race tails off. The main worry is Frankie's notorious tendency not to ride out for a place.

Hexham 4:50
Depraux – place. The fave has a penalty and the only other obvious challenger Issaquah is first time out for a trainer not yet in form.

Football
Accrington 6/5. Betfred out on a limb here – probably some sort of Lancastrian prejudice – happy to play when betfair are shorter – I think there are injury woes, and they're no great shakes but Wrexham have declined badly this year and were only as good as Accrington to begin with.

£500 Challenge
Muss 2:55 – Mangham £15 place at Evens or better
Nmkt 3:50 – Crime Scene £15 place at Evens
Heh 4:50 – Depraux £15 place at 5/4 or better

Running Total
£542.49

Thursday Oct 4th

Another good day yesterday. I can't count the £500 challenge bets as the advised prices never materialised. I'm setting those at quite conservative levels in this new late price guise. I didn't actually press up.

Today's possible bets:

Goodwood 2:20
Connors Choice – to place. The fave is Ok, though has already failed to place on the course twice. There are two debutants from big stables. The rest don't appeal. Connors Choice improved for the step up in trip last but there were still signs of being green, so there could be a bit left yet.

Ayr 2:45
Safebreaker – to place. A lot to like about his debut. Johnston fires the 2yo winners in here. There are a few to worry about, but with only 7 runners and betfair paying the first 3, he should manage that Ok. 2/1on entirely possible looking at early odds.

Football
Rabotnicki did us a big favour last leg and in truth we never looked like not collecting. Bolton do seem to have got their act together since but they haven't scored more than 1 in six, and have conceded at least 1 in all of those. Rabotnicki remain unbeaten in ages and under-rated. Taking a 2 goal start is very tempting.

£500 challenge
Connors Choice £15 at 5/4 or better
Rabotnicki £15 at 4/5 or better +2

Running Total
£520.49

Weds 3rd october

Not sure why I haven't posted here for a few days, especially as I've actually had a good few days (typical!). I think it's because the new gambling approach is so tied up in betting very late and I haven't been making early decisions on £500 challenge type bets. This of course could be a problem.

So, I'll try to indicate where I'm going and see how we get on.

Today two horses appeal to place.

Nottingham 2:40

Reel Buddy Star probably only needs to replicate his initial run to place here. The fact it was in a claimer may help hold the price up.

Nottingham 3:10

Probably a touch tougher with a couple of unraced Johnston horses muddying the water and 13 runners in all. But Cathedral Walk is in a similar position of having proved at least a semblance of ability and potential to improve.

I'll play both at best price I can get (within reason) and go in again at decent prices.

Rugby

We aren't in great shape here! But my match betting has been better - 5/5 on handicap bets so far.

Not sure I'll play the handicaps in the quarters, but I am with all the faves. To be honest France are the only ones who worry me and we have them covered anyway. You can get 1.75 on the fourfold. That's worth a thump.

£500 challenge
Reel Buddy Star £15 to place at Evens or better
Cathedral Walk £15 to place at 6/4 or better.

Rugby – Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Argentina to win quarter
£15 win at 1.75

Running Total
£520.49