2000 Guineas

There's no pundits looking to get after Frankel this morning (Nick Mordin aside) and it's easy to see why. Still, at that price in a field of relatively unexposed 3 year olds no self-respecting Saturday Gambler can sit back and do nothing. Sure, we're going to look stupid most the time, but it's a mighty sweet slice of pie when the sure thing does fail.

The problem is what to oppose him with. I took Casamento each way at 16s midweek - the place element looked big. 12/1 is looking closer to his price, so I'll pass over him this morning. Which leaves Fury as the horse likeliest to raise his game. He's been surprisingly tight in the market this week. You can get money back for second at boylesports at 16/1, or take the 20/1 win only betfair.

Obviously you have to do the forecast to a few quid.

For the 'get rich quick' trebles, build some perms around those two, plus Sandor in the 2:00, Johnny Mudball and Tangerine Trees in the Palace House, and how about another dent in Mourinho's home record with Real Zaragoza at 10/1+. Chuck in the Scoop 6 and join me at the pay window later!


Be lucky...

Whitbread

No time this morning. I was hoping est End Rocker or Iconoclast would line up. Instead I've had a tickle on two rank outsiders who need to find some form from somewhere but are priced fairly to do so.

Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!

Be lucky...

Scottish National

Which has been a sometime lucky race for me over the years. I'm not really connected to it this year I have to say, but I did make a note about Ouzbeck months ago "leave out of calculations until back for go at a good ground Scottish National". Emma Lavelle is one of my favourite "go-to" trainers in handicaps and I'll hope the sun shines enough at 16/1, where I had him closer to 10s....


Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1

Grand National

Nothing to add to the post below.

Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!

Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.


Be lucky...

US Masters and Grand National

Saturday Gamblers have to have a go at both of these events don't they!

Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.



by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.

My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.


US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?


So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1

West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.



Be Lucky...

The Lincoln

No self-respecting professional without inside information would dream of a bet in the Lincoln. Luckily, us Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints!

Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.

The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.

Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.

So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta

£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1

£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom

£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000


Be lucky...

Saturday 26th March

The racing is not at all my cup of tea today, with just the one race at Newbury of interest. And it's a poor one. Burren Legend won it last year and has good course form. I'm not sure this race will fall in his lap, and given he's been pulled up three times already this season, he's not each way material. But I'll play at the price, and throw a tenner at veteran Briery Fox - who I see Corals have ducked.

Another Saturday, and another chance to oppose an England team. You'll never go broke laying England teams playing away at under 1/2, regardless of all the experts in the world telling you this is a cakewalk against a terrible Welsh side. They seem to be overlooking the fact England are pretty terrible also. As we are already on Montenegro to win the group this is a doubling of our eggs in that basket to be honest, and an early England goal, followed by turning over to see Burren Legend pulled up, is a more likely scenario, but that's Saturday gambling.


So, something like:
£30 Burren Legend at 14/1+
£10 Briery Fox at 14/1+
back Wales and lay England so that your outcomes are something like:
Wales +£180
England -£50
Draw +90
£10 treble Semi-Colon/Burren Legend/Wales returns c£10000


Be lucky...

Midlands National

Well, that was a tough week. The bad news is that I lost the entire bank I'd allocated to the festival. The good news is that still leaves me with a good profit for the last couple of months. That's a big compliment to this type of staking, which you won't find in any gambling textbook. It certainly worked out better than any level staking system, and if I'd been using my old "part Kelly" approach I'd have been completely banjaxed. So, that's one advantage to good old part-time Saturday Gambling, and it could easily be incorporated into a full-time gambler's approach. Food for thought for the future.

In the meantime, let's get back on the horse at Uttoxeter today. Not my favourite race but Companero reappears at a a big price again. Now, obviously he all but died on his feet three weeks ago, loaning us our Cheltenham funds, so why would we want to go to the funeral today, especially on firmer ground. Well, because he's 25/1+ again. I'm not that interested in each way this time, given he is likely to be pulled up, and will supplement the bet with a couple of other bets now the favourite has been Pricewised down to 4/1. Tricky Trickster and Nicto De Beauchene look credible darts at a price.

So, something like
£25 win Companero 25/1+ (got 30s last night)
£15 win Tricky Trickster 14/1
£10 win Nicto de Beauchene 20/1


Ireland look backable at 7/4 to beat England in the rugby - they'll relish this one last battle. Usual England pricing reasons. May even get 2s closer to kick-off!


Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Friday

Been a bad one so far. The three bets of the day have: fallen when in last, pulled up when in last, and run like a drunkard who's just missed the last bus home.

I'm lucky today in that a lot of my bets are paid for by the doubles I have going on from Al Ferof - who must have won in a previous year so long ago it seems!

Triumph: I have a free double on Zarkander. Prefer Unaccompanied this morning so will go in again.

County: Should probably keep Alarazi onside after his bloodless win last weekend, but am looking further afield. Particularly like Soldatino for this - he loves the hill, and have a long-standing habit of backing James Fanshawe runners here so Spring Jim at 50/1 to cheer me up.

Bartlett: Have a free bet on Court in Motion, and will stick with that.

Gold Cup: Judgement day for Weird Al. And it would have to be weird to be honest. Still, if you're all on at 40/1 each way I hope we get a better run for our money this time. I have a free bet on Midnight Chase, though it's hard to think he's good enough, and at the prices this morning I'd have to say Imperial Commander looks a touch of value. His price could be down to knowledge that he's not right (much like how Hills and Lads went 3/1 early on Time for Rupert). It's possible though he's just not a public horse. Not many people backed him last year - just us! - and you'd imagine more tenners and scores going on Denman and Kauto Star for old time's sake.

Grand Annual: I have a free bet on Pigeon Island at 33/1 to repeat last year's little bit of joy, and I also like Oh Crick to roll back the years.


My new bets:
£25 win Unaccompanied
£15 ew Soldatino
£10 ew Spring Jim

Some doubles on the ones mentioned, and if need be singles on Imperial Commander and Oh Crick.


Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Thursday

Tough day yesterday. Beshabar, Rock On Ruby and Kumbeshwar were all kickings. When I was a pro obviously I watched all the key Irish races, but that study has been sadly lacking this year, and it's proving expensive. At least the staking isn't hurting!

Jewson: Bet of the day for me - Robinson Collonges was beating Wishfull Thinking giving weight, when he overjumped at Wincanton. Jumping is a worry but with Ruby to hand I think he should be much closer in price to the fave this morning.

Pertemps: Hope they keep hold of him a bit more than last year but the ground is perfect for Barwell Bridge to run another big race.

Ryanair: Impossible - doubts about the four main challengers, and indeed the rest of the field. I have a free bet on Kalahari King, so that'll do me for now, not that I like it much.

World Hurdle: Big Buck's at Evens is a mighty fine price for the big hitters. I can afford to leave it be.

Plate: The two who stand out for me are both pretty short - Quartz de Thai and Beautiful Sound - watching brief for now.

Fulke Walwyn: Mostly Bob was fancied for the RP chase before the rains came, and fell nice and early, so this could be much more likely. Also like Alderley Rover.


Something like;
£50 Robinson Collonges 7/1
£15ew Barwell Bridge 25/1
£15ew Mostly Bob 16/1
£10ew Alderley Rover 20/1
and make up some life-changing doubles/trebles to suit yourself.


Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Wednesday

Onwards.

I'm leaning towards horses with proven good/firm form after yesterday...

NH Chase - bunch of plodders with amateur pilots is usually a recipe for pandemonium. My darts land on Beshaber and Major Malarkey.

Neptune - Guessing the Irish are decent, but don't know which one, which leaves me with Tornado Bob at a big price.

RSA - my favourite race. Time For Rupert looks a shade of value. The Al Ferof win yesterday kicked off a load of free £30 doubles, one of which is the plodder The Giant Bolster at 25/1, which will do for me. I'll also back Wayward Prince.

Queen Mum - God help me with this one, but I'm going with Woolcombe Folly, who anyone with an ounce of sense can see is hopelessly overrated, but I'll go with my eyes, and in the hope Master Minded doesn't let himself down on the ground and Big Zeb doesn't jump as well as last year.


I'll play them all in some way, but hope the doubles can kick us into life:

10 x £5 doubles and a £5 life-changing acca
Beshaber 8/1
Tornado Bob 11/1
Time For Rupert 5/2
Woolcombe Folly 8/1
For Non Stop 7/1

Bet of the day - The Giant Bolster 20/1 each way.

Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Tuesday

A good thing about being a smaller staking gambler is that the bookies let you play and so we can take advantage of the great offers they've lined up.

Supreme - Cue Card is fairly priced. He'd certainly be shorter if trained by one of the bigger stables. The Paddy Power concession (money back if he wins) looks the way to go, and I've already done Al Ferof, Gibb River and Marsh Warbler against him.

Arkle - Boylesports's concession on the Channel 4 races of money back if 2nd is also a good one - and in fairly uncompetitive races as this appears, has appeal. I prefer Medermit to Finian's Rainbow, but he seems to struggle up the hill in the big races. Leaving Ghizao as the bet of the day.

Champion - Wide open. I do like Menorah a lot, but not at the price. I'm more drawn to Mille Chief (if acts on course) and Khyber Kim (if on a going day) at the prices.

Maljimar is an obvious bet in the X Country, so obvious everyone's tipped it this morning - probably go off favourite.

The rest is just for playing, can see Chief Dan George putting up a good defence of his title each way.

Let's say a bank of £200 for the day - putting our hard-earned profits at risk! Something like:

Ghizao £50 at 4/1 (money back if 2nd)

Gibb River 20/1
Ghizao 4/1
Chief Dan George 25/1
Mille Chief 14/1
Maljimar 6/1
10 x £3 doubles

Then Ghizao/Maljimar bankers with
Gibb River/Marsh Warbler/Chief Dan George/Mille Chief/Khyber Kim 5 x £4 trebles
and 4 x 50p get rich accas.

The other hundred to be spread around the later races, if the doubles aren't up and running.


Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Monday

I'll post all week. See if we can continue our amazing run of the last few weeks. At least I can afford a terrible week!

Firstly, Arsenal. I can't help thinking they are a big price at 2/1 to win the league. They have an easier run-in, and Man Utd are heavily involved on three fronts still (and a Man City semi-final isn't something they'll be allowed to soft-pedal). Of course you have to forgive Arsenal all their obvious failings, but 2/1+ seems an overreaction to a the horrible 8 days they've just had.

For Cheltenham, I've done a few vouchers of doubles trying to make myself rich with little effort. As usual I will no doubt have to offer these up in sacrifice to the gods of Cleeve Hill once the Champion hurdle is done and dusted on Tuesday.

I'll add a couple here.

Firstly, an each way double of The Giant Bolster and Weird Al.

Secondly, I think you should do an "Oh Bugger" voucher, of horses you're probably not going to focus on this year, but you have in the past, just in case they come back to haunt you. One horse each day for me - Maljimar, Somersby, Kalahari King and Imperial Commander.


So, something like.
Arsenal £50 Premiership at 2/1

£10 ew The Giant Bolster 16/1 and Weird Al 25/1

The four horses you're going to be most pissed off if they win, unbacked...
6 x £4 doubles and £6 fourfold


Be lucky...

Imperial Cup Sandown

Off to Crufts tomorrow. The racing is well missable with all of next week to look forward to, and no reason to go wasting money ahead of the big event.

The Imperial Cup is not a race I've ever had much success in, but given the profits of the last few weeks I felt obliged to go for another double-figure each way screamer, and my dart landed on Alarazi. The other credible challengers seemed priced on their trainers' records in this race as much as form, and 14/1 seemed a touch of value. That seems to have collapsed to 10/1 tonight - maybe Pricewise is afoot - and I haven't actually priced the race up so I can't say if 10/1 represents value. Up to you.

No get rich trebles today, but I'll be posting every day next week, so plenty of time for that. In the meantime, if you're quick, snap up the remaining 40/1 about Weird Al winning the Gold Cup. Regulars will know my feelings about this horse, and how disappointed I was after the Hennessey, but I still think he's up there with Long Run, Diamond Harry and Burton Port, and if it's time for the old greats to bow out, well it's worth a dream at that price.

So something like:
£25 ew Alarazi at 14/1 for me, below 10/1 I'd go win only.
£25 ew Weird Al, Gold Cup, 40/1 (33/1 ok).


Be lucky.

Saturday 5th March

One of those dull racing days before the real action unwinds. I'm not keen to fritter away all the profits I've built up over last few weeks, so will tread softly this week.

Newbury Greatwood Chase
Big Fella Thanks would be more interesting if I was able to predict whether Murphy is trying with him today. Which leaves me with Fine Parchment who we've been following for a while, and who remains feasibly handicapped. 14/1 and first four places (fingers crossed) looks ok, so let's make that the bet of the day.

The veterans chase is full of the usual dodge-pots. By the time I was finished crossing out I wasn't left with much, leaving Far More Serious as a tentative poke.

At Doncaster, Meanus Dandy comes out best on prices in a tricky race, though I'm not at all convinced he properly stays this trip. Let's hope he proves me wrong.


So, something like:
Fine Parchment £20ew at 14/1 (12s ok)
Far More Serious £10 win at 15/2
Meanus Dandy (if treble dead)£10 at 8/1
and the three in a £15 treble returning c£15000 - about time I had another 1000/1 treble!



Be lucky.

Saturday 26th Feb

Let's keep it simple today.

These two selections aren't remotely my usual sort of horses - they're both inconsistent and not in form - and so I'm also not sure why I'm going each way. The whole day could consist of watching two has-been horses being pulled up early - you've been warned. Still, one in the frame and we've saved our money.

Racing Post Chase
Not sure how much rain has fallen but I'm expecting softer ground than predicted and it may well have scuppered some of the more progressive horses, particularly Hobbs's pair. I expect Nacarat to run his usual game race and not be far away, but Razor Royale looks the one at the prices. He hasn't run too badly this year, and looks to have been targeting a repeat win here. I got 16/1 in the week, but 12s or better remains value on my tissue.


Eider Chase
Not my sort of race - slow, slow horses plodding home through the mud, with whichever horse deciding it's "travelling day" hanging on to win. Still, I kept looking at Companero. In terrible form, but nicely weighted if the blinkers wake him up. Big if, and he's weak this morning but at 20s+ to win and 6s to place worth a throw of the dice.


So, something like:
Razor Royale £25ew at 14/1
Companero £15 win at 20s+ and £15 place at 6/1
£10 ew double

and if you fancy £25000 how about a cheeky tenner fourfold
Razor Royale, Companero, West Ham and Sheffield Wednesday....!


Be lucky.

Saturday 19th February

I hope some of you were on yesterday's 1,2 in the Tote Trophy, held over from Saturday!

Today it's mainly fairly uncompetitive graded races - we'll throw some doubles at them and see if some stick.

Ascot 2:25 doesn't look very competitive - I crossed most of them out anyway - Royal Tune a legitimate favourite but Iconoclast looks a good price to give him a race.

Haydock 3:20 Pricewise skewing this towards topweights, but personally I'd be looking low in the mud. Nothing really comes out as a worthwhile bet by itself but two at nicer prices would be Major Malarkey and Sarde.

So, my £100 would look something like this:
Iconoclast £30 win at 10/1

Iconoclast 10/1
Riverside Theatre 7/4
Any Given Day 9/4
Sarde 14/1/Major Malarkey 10/1
Holmwood Legend 6/1
Mille Chief 7/4
30 x £2 doubles (ie £4 doubles on the 5 races, then £2 doubles with Sarde and MM)
2 x £5 accas paying at least £80000. That should do it!



West Brom look too short tomorrow...

Saturday 12th Feb

Boy, this year's Tote Trophy looks wide open. To be honest I think I've let weight sway me the most price-wise and so have ended up with these three darts:
Recession Proof - despite inexperience.
Bothy - and hope the ground is soft enough.
Final Approach - ticks all the trends boxes and I had him in as slight fave.

Fine Parchment, a non runner for us a couple of week ago, goes in a lesser race at Warwick. At the price we'd best play.

Football - it's another week where some possible draws leap off the page - with derbies and relegation matches to the fore.

So, something like:
Recession Proof £15 at 16/1
Bothy £15 at 18/1
Final Approach £15 at 10/1
6 x £1 forecasts

Fine Parchment £20 at 10/1

Man Utd/Birmingham/West Brom £10 all draws
add Fulham draw Monday for a £10 fourfold

and for the treble
Noland/Fine Parchment/Recession Proof £10 to return £20000



Be lucky...

Saturday 5th February

Right, I've covered Sandown so that you don't have to!

2:25 Wide open - I like Medermit, but not at the price against this lot. Captain Chris would have been a possible but for Pricewise killing the value. Hidden Keel probably isn't good enough, but he's the only one I priced up shorter than we can get.

3:00 These big field handicap hurdles aren't my thing these days. However, I do like Like A Hurricane down the bottom, on a day when Alan King's could go well. Kilcrea Kim also looks solid, as of course does the favourite. I priced Like A Hurricane at 5s, which looks a bit over the top, but that's going to be my bet of the day.

3:35 Take The Breeze looks a crazy price (whenever I say this they win easily). I'd much rather have Khachutarian or Leading Contender. That said, those two combined at around 7/4 isn't appealing either.

4:10 Alan King lands the treble with Call Me A Legend and we all go home happy. Well, it's not impossible! I don't like much else in this race, and if I need to chase to get my £100 back I could do worse than here.


As for the rest of the sport, how about three unfathomable upsets. Wolves, Italy and Scotland. I can't actually see any of them happening, let alone all three, but I could see all matches being tight for a long time. Trading opportunities, or handicap ones in the rugby for those playing at shorter odds, but us Saturday Gamblers prefer shooting for the stars, and there has to be some fun at 340/1 the treble.


So, something like:
Like A Hurricane £30 at 10/1
Like a Hurricane/Kilcrea Kim £2.50 combination exacta

Hidden Keel £15 at 10/1

Medermit/Like A Hurricane/Call Me A Legend £20 treble returns £4000+

Hidden Keel; Kilcrea Kim/Like A Hurricane; Khachaturian/Leading Contender; Call Me A Legend: - 4 x £5 fourfolds - returns £13000+

Italy/Scotland/Wolves £10 returns £3400


Be lucky...

Saturday 29th January

Was all set to give you the 1,2,3 in Doncaster's Sky Bet chase! Oh well...

I'm liking the look of the outsiders in the 2m5f chase at Cheltenham today. If you forgive his last run in the mud at Chepstow, then Fine Parchment looks a sporting each way bet today at 20/1. You also have to forgive current stable form, but I'll make him the cornerstone of the day. The Sawyer will be trained for this as well, and with doubts about many of these, I'll do a small saver.

I can't get excited about the Argento. Not least because I was going to put a cheeky tenner on The Tother One midweek, when he was trading at 70s on betfair, but decided he just couldn't be running...

Some nice-looking matches for draw betting in the FA cup, have attracted me instead.

So, something like:

Fine Parchment £25ew at 20/1
The Sawyer £10 at 20/1
£2.50 reverse forecast

£10 Treble returning £13000+
Fine Parchment 20/1
The Tother One 7/1
Southampton 7/1

Football 4 x £5 trebles and £5 acca - all draws:
Everton/Chelsea
Southampton/Man Utd
Wolves/Stoke
Fulham/Spurs


Be lucky.