Not normally my cup of tea - match betting on the Champion's League, but I do like two tonight - despite my recent hopelessness!!
Bayern Munich 5pts beat Milan at 11/8
Real Madrid 5pts beat Arsenal at 8/13
A couple of horse-racing bets up on
www.escorialracing.co.uk
for this afternoon as well for anyone interested.
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Interesting that you find value in the odds offered for Real Madrid. Sure, Arsenal are weakened, but Real (who have been playing better) aren't that much of a favorite in my humble opinion. In my book, Real should have about a 40 % chance of a straight win.
ReplyDeleteWould be interesting if you could elaborate on that!
I do, however, agree with you finding value in Bayern Munich. Let's get that win. ;-)
/JD
Hi,
ReplyDeletefair comment JD. I also don't have RM strictly speaking as value - in fact I have them at 8/13. I missed the 4/6 yesterday and prevaricated this morning.
However, I do have a rule that helps me. Being contrary by nature it is unusual for me to price any odds-on shot as "value". (And in horse racing it's unusual for me to price any favourite as "value".)
Therefore a few years ago I decided to back any such selection if they were my exact price, regardless of my notion of value. In other words I deem them value by nature of me actually having priced them so unusually short, if you see what I mean.
That's worked for me in the long-run anyway. Being that they're shorter-priced selections also helps with the strike-rate, and hence confidence levels.
Hope that explains it.
(Oh, and I can't stand Arsenal!!)
Good call JD.
ReplyDeleteThat's a losing run of 8 for the football bets - hell's teeth.
I've been opposing Arsenal away all season when they play a team who can boss them around (eg Bolton, Everton). Why I overlooked the fact that RM wouldn't put them into a fight is a cause for much reproach.
I could not believe Arsenal won..Real were on a good run in La Liga and we all know Arsenals standard of play over the past months......
ReplyDeleteBest of luck Gary, I am sure your run of losses in footie will end soon!
majid
Thanks all.
ReplyDelete