Wednesday, May 24, 2006

The Derby - Tissue

Here's an early tissue and recommendation for the Derby (or for our American friends - the Epsom Derby).

It's based on it being definitely on the soft side.


Visindar 3/1
Septimus 5/1
Lindas Lad 7/1
Championship Point 10/1
Horatio Nelson 16/1
Sir Percy 16/1
Hala Bek 16/1
Dylan Thomas 16/1

Visindar is a solid favourite. The price just looks too short to me. Septimus also solid and I'm happy with my 25/1 ante post voucher. Soft ground should help him stay in touch with the others early and stay on past them late. If the going firms up Championship Point will be added to my portfolio (which does include Sir Percy and Hala Bek, but I can't have them on my mind now.)

The one that really stands out is Lindas Lad. Group 1 winner, solid trial, goes on the ground. Looks way too big to me, and in a fairly uncompetitive race, ew looks the way to go. Obviously there's the usual caveat of betting ante post, but the price merits it.

Lindas Lad 5pts ew at 20/1

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