The Derby - Epsom 4:20
Authorised 6/4
Archipenko 7/1
Aqaaleem 11/1
Lucarno 11/1
Eagle Mountain 11/1
Admiralofthefleet 33/1
Mahler 33/1
Regime 33/1
Salford Mill 33/1
Soldier of Fortune 33/1
Strategic Prince 33/1
Yellowstone 33/1
Authorised is solid but, let's face it, he's a rotten price. The bookies may be all talk about losing millions if Frankie wins but the truth is they're delighted to be able to lay this at odds on. There must be some juice against him this morning.
My ante post book includes Aqaleem at 100/1, Archipenko at 30+, Lucarno at 33s, Eagle Mountain at 20s and Yellowstone at 160s, so I don't feel the need to go diving in again. As I've talked up both Aqaleem and Archipenko on here and recommended them before their trials I hope some of you are similarly positioned. Not that it will matter much once Frankie wins and we have to endure the BBC's sentimental guff!
If you're coming fresh to the race this morning I'd go for Archipenko at 9s or better. Lucarno stands out on my tissue though so add him as a saver each way.
Epsom 3:00
Blue Ksar Evens
Blythe Knight 9/2
Welsh Emperor 9/2
King Jock 9/1
Another Frankie odds-on shot probably worth opposing. Blythe Knight may just be an improved horse this year but prior to now has always needed a strong pace to show his best.
Welsh Emperor could have his ideal conditions if granted a soft lead. With one rather massive caveat - whether he will get the mile. "Never bet on a horse to do something it's never done before" is a very sensible racing adage. You sometimes get a price that compensates for the doubts though and I think that's the case here. If he doesn't get a soft lead, or gets his fractions wrong, or just doesn't stay, we're sunk, but at the 9s available this morning I'm happy to take a chance. If he does get to the furlong pole in the lead I'm all for laying off the stake at least in-running.
The rest of the card is almost impossible, so I won't bother with tissues. And no £500 Challenge bet today I'm afraid.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
160's on Yellowstone?..
ReplyDeleteI was happy enough to take 40's yesterday going by his running on 1/2 length or so defeat by Archipenko in the Derrinstown.
Yep - happy with 160s! (I had Dragon Dancer last year at 540/1 - and was too excited to remember to lay any off in-running!).
ReplyDeletePaddy Power's O'Brien market has Yellowstone at 10/1 - I've had to top-up each way on that as well.
Good luck!
Well I have watched the Derrinstown again a few times this morning. If Yellowstone can go up the hill in touch, I give the horse as much chance as Archipenko of coming down the hill and staying the extra 2 furlongs.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, it is arguable that Yellowstone would have gone past Archipenko at Leopardstown if there were an extra 2 furlongs to cover.
Of course, the Derrinstown would have been run differently if it were 1m4. However, in my book, the way Yellowstone was held up at the back and came through quicker and wider than Archipenko, the horse arguably looks the better suited to the extra 2.
Possibly I have just seen what I want to, looking for a reason to take on a 9/1 second favourite with a 40/1 shot, who finished less that a length behind.
Looking forward to the race actually. Very unusual for me.
Well, I'm hoping they're the best two - good luck!!
ReplyDeleteNever good when your Derby horse comes last!!
ReplyDeleteAqaleem ran really well - (St Leger) and Lucarno the fate of all good ew bets.
Yellowstone at least landed that O'Brien bet each way.
As soon as Authorised won the Dante I knew my book was looking hopelessly lop-sided - and so it was.
Dont worry.. I was on Archipenko too.. a sad end to a losing weekend for me..
ReplyDeleteGlad Yellowstone squeezed in on the O'Brien EW for you.
ReplyDeleteI figured Archipenko dealt with Macarthur easily enough. I also figured if I could get Archipenko beat, I might have half a chance of collecting.
Hnce I figured 40/1 Yellowstone, against Archipenko's 8's, for half a length or so, might be decent.
As Archipenko came plum last, and Yellowstone came a running on from the back 8th, I feel I won my personal quiz for the day hands down. However, Ladbrokes still keep my money.
Grim.