Saturday Aug 25th

A couple of interesting betting heats this week, considering the piece I wrote early on about prices.

The England/India 2^nd one day international had an interesting pattern. To start with there was an over-reaction to India's (decidedly dodgy) capitulation in the first match. This was then exacerbated by a good old fashioned rumour of flu. Eventually the Indians were trading at 6/4, which considering they were 4/6 for the first match is a remarkable turnaround. I'm pleased to say (aftertiming aside) that I was able to profit from this.

Not as good for me was Wannabe Posh's victory. Here was a race where the thoroughly game Posh only had to meet her mark to beat all but a possible improver. When I priced them up initially I had them at joint favourites. Sadly I then read something from someone I respect and amended my tissue accordingly. He was very keen on Winter Sunrise and as a Stoute filly it wasn't hard to think of her as winning this easily on her way to group races. Even so, she was priced on potential rather than form and Wannabe Posh allowed to go off at a very good price as a result.

Anyway onwards.

Goodwood 2:05
Ivy Creek 5/2
Samuel 7/2
Rayhani 7/1
Tungsten Strike 11/1

Could possibly go 3/1 each of the front two. I'm a bit fed up of following Rayhani over the cliff. The formbook is sure he doesn't stay, which begs the question what Tregoning thinks he's doing running him in a race he likes to win. Against my better judgement I'm going to edge off the cliff one last time, I can't muster much enthusiasm for the rest.

Goodwood 3:10
Cesare 6/4
Dunelight 6/1
Echelon 7/1
Blue Ksar 7/1
Blythe Knight 7/1
Selinka 20/1

Everyone and his dog knows that this is a pace race with the likelihood on paper of Dunelight getting an easy lead and Frank Spencer getting it wrong in the last furlong. The problem is when the information like this is so prominent (a) a form of group-think forces the prices to unwarranted extremes and (b) because everyone knows about it the scenario rarely pans out in practice anyway! There's every chance Echelon will be asked to race prominently here for example.

Because of this I'll keep a close eye on Cesare's price in case a form of madness takes hold. Besides that I have to say Blythe Knight looks under-rated still. He looks a much improved horse this year, 7/1 looks fair and although it's worrying to see him at any price on betfair this morning, I'm still bound to dive in at 14/1 plus.

Newmarket 3:25
Baltahzaars Gift 6/4
Shmookh 9/2
Firenze 9/1
Rising Shadow 10/1
Fonthill Road 10/1
Presto Shinko 10/1

A striking thing about this race on paper is a lack of pace. It may not work out that way but there is every chance of Shmookh taking the race by the scruff of the neck.

Not sure any of these deserve £500 challenge status though