Spent yesterday tweaking my strategy. Not something I like to do mid-season, mainly because the only reason I would is that I'm stuck in the deep stuff! One upshot of my tweaks will almost certainly be fewer “early bird” bets. I'll continue to put my tissues up for the bigger races though.
Goodwood 3:45
Dunelight 3/1
Lovelace 3/1
Assertive 9/1
Racer Forever 9/1
Some very disappointing horses in this race. Even of the four short-listed Assertive has no form in group races, nor over 7f; and Racer Forever looked to dog it last time. So 50% the top two looks fair. Dunelight is entirely dependant on pace though. Lovelace becomes the one people point to almost by default – I couldn't honestly say the price is fair value. I'll wait to see which way the markets go. Any over-reactions and I'll oppose the momentum.
Not one to offer you advice Tooting (especially from the rare air of Colorado Springs at 6000 ft where the brain cells are suffering from lack of oxygen *gasp*) but you were the one who directed me toward the writings of Mark Cramer and your post motivated me to respond..
ReplyDeleteBoth Mark (in the book on odds compilation “Odds On You Side”) and Barry Meadows (“Money Secrets at The Race Track”) suggest developing tissues and then waiting just before the off time to identify value bets based on your opinion (the tissue).
Barry also suggests that you should seek a 50% premium on each bet to account for errors in your opinion. So for example a horse you make 3/1 you should seek at least 4/1, a horse you make 5/1 in your tissue is not a value bet under 8/1.
Don’t get me wrong as you know I’m still learning the game, but as you are fully aware there is a vast difference between the opinions of the market early doors verses the market just before the race.
As you highlighted in your post “Reasons why the price could be wrong” there could be a whole host of reasons for differing opinion between your tissue and the crowds but if you base you selection on early prices you are not giving yourself a chance to let the market have its say before placing a bet. Although the market does get it complete wrong (2 out of 3) it does provide a semi accurate guide in those furious 10 minutes just before the race as the market factors in ALL of the reasons you mentioned.
Since taking a waiting approach, I feel I have a lot better handle on the question “betting the value” and not “the selection”, the only problem is that you need to monitor the SP’s verses tissue just before the race and that can be difficult for me but that’s another issue.
Good stuff, have sent you an e-mail!
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