Saturday 15th November

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£872 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)

Well, at least I won the placepot yesterday, and the pay out leapt admirably on the back of Herecomesthetruth's antics at the last fence. Let's hope my 16 line Scoop 6 is as lucky today!

And my own bet on Chesterfield worked out somewhat better than the simplified version posted on here. And I got Evens on Dix Villex keeping the race yesterday.

So, all in all, a day of pitiful selections was saved by a bit of luck and quick thinking!

First things first. Phil Taylor is back in action. 8/13 is getting close to the bone now – but I reckon we follow him till he loses. He's been about the only profitable angle since the start of the flat season - looking back at daily challenge bets has been a sobering experience.

Secondly Cheltenham:

1:25 I can make a case for Big Fella Thanks and West End Rocker here. The two carrying penalties have it all to do, and Gone to Lunch just looked OK at Exeter and the going looks plenty soft enough for him. Either of the our two could have won the sprint up the straight at Chepstow the other week, and so go unpenalised here. I'd have them taking 60% of the book, so dutching them as close to Evens as we can get looks the way to go. Of course, as we saw again yesterday, chaos is the default setting for Cheltenham novice chases.

2:35 Really I shouldn't be betting here, but if you can't bet in the Mackeson/Murphy/Thomas Pink/PaddyPower you must have lost the love of betting that attracted you to the job in the first place. Bradbury Star was my first equine hero after all. Looking at the shape of the race and the going yesterday, I can see this race being run too quick and a stalker coming through late. That said, the Racing UK re-runs of previous Mackesons showed that most were prominent by the top of the hill. I priced Piraya, Maljimar and Fleet Street up at a collective 3/1, so dutching them at 5/1 and playing the exotics is the way I'm going.

Finally, Ipswich come out as a bet on ratings against Doncaster. We're riding our luck if we play this because by all accounts Doncaster slaughtered Sheff Weds last Saturday for a 1-0 defeat and our profit for the day. I haven't decided whether to play yet. The good news is they kick off late so I can wait for the Cheltenham fog to clear., The bad news is that makes me prey to recency effect on how the day's gone.

Phil Taylor £25 win at 8/13
Big Fella Thanks/West End Rocker £15 dutched at close to Evens
Maljimar/Piraya/Fleet Street £13 dutched at 5/1
£2 in total on combination exactas, and a cheeky trifecta

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3187)
Wetherby 1:45 and Punchestown 1:50 could provide a heady ten minutes.
Arsenal/Chelsea games could throw up in-running opportunities

“Snippet of the day”
“In the final when he won the war
After losing every battle”