Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Tuesday 30th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£13250 – plus £420 in play)
Current stake - £120

I watched Lisicki close out her match yesterday and then Safina. Obviously wrong to bet on such flimsy evidence but that won't stop me. And Federer must be licking his lips at the prospect of eating up Murray's second serve...

Hamilton 3:45 – Stateside is a notebook horse, but it does look a very competitive handicap, and I rarely get Fahey/Hanagan right (those who are in the know are cleaning up on betfair there).

Lisicki £120 at 2/1
Stateside £60 at 3/1ish

Monday, June 29, 2009

Monday 29th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£13450 – plus £420 in play)

Current stake - £120

Quiet day.

3:15 Pontefract – Decree Absolute probably flattered to win on debut, but surely find some improvement against horses carrying bigger penalties. Small trainer also ensuring bigger odds by the looks of it.

7:10 Windsor – El Dececy – back in sellers – against the rail - Richard Hughes.

England Under 21 – draw – lose on penalties surely!


Decree Absolute £60 win at 5/1+
El Dececy £60 win at 7/2+
Under 21 draw £120 at 9/4
£30 treble

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Sunday 28th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£13650 – plus £420 in play)
Current stake - £120

Rugby!

The day went better for me than expected, and not just the Lions, when the going made me ditch Dreameater, and then go for Tamagin at Windsor.

Today:

Salis 2:00 Lord Zenith – nice debut, should improve.

Salis 3:05 Bold Argument – conditions suit, and in form, draw slight worry, and above highest winning rating but that's in the price.

Windsor 4:00 – Existentialist – blast out, make all, simples.

Irish Derby – I backed Golden Sword and Masterofthehorse at Epsom, and will stay loyal. You can dutch them at around 9/4 and I'd be way shorter than that. Their form makes them pretty much as good as the fave – and if the pacemakers go very hard it will suit Masterofthehorse, and if not enough pace it will suit Golden Sword.


Lord Zenith £70 win 7/4
Bold Argument £50 win 7/1
Existentialist £60 win 7/2
£20 win treble

Masterofthehorse/Golden Sword £120 dutch (I'll slightly load Golden Sword as the bigger value price).

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Saturday 27th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£13320 – plus £460 in play)

Current stake - £120

Backed a few blatant non-triers over the last few days – more fool me.

Ground conditions a worry today.

Curragh 3:40 Corals and Ladbrokes taking opposite stands on Look Here, and as usual I side with Corals.

Newc 3:10 – Hits Only Vic was going to be the choice anyway, so with the ground coming in his favour as well I've jumped on a tumbling price.

Nmkt 2:20 – competitive race, but I was taken with Jira's run in the Albany from a terrible draw – looks a 20/80 type

Nmkt 3:25 – Dreameater has been running well, another 20/80 type

Ryan Moore has an eye-smacking book of rides at Windsor, so usual mug bet at the ready.

And friends in my betleague are falling over themselves to have love bets on the Lions, which suggests to me South Africa are probably a value price for a barking bet!

Something like
Look Here £120 win at 2/1
Hits Only Vic £60ew at 12/1
Jira £20 win/£70 place
Dreameater £20 win/£70 place
Above four in £25 fourfold to retrun £36000+
Ryan Moore 15 x £8 doubles and £5 acc
South Africa £120 at 1.4

Friday, June 26, 2009

Friday 26th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£13570 – plus £460 in play)
Current stake - £120

Was unexpectedly free for the afternoon yesterday and rushed into it in gimp-like style, so threw away far too much of last week's profits.

Donc 4:00 Pysian – eye catching debut, wouldn't have to improve much to win this.

Nmkt 6:30 Sonny Parkin - loves course, won last year off less, 20/80 bet

Newc 7:25 Piscean - probably needs 6f but that's in the price – ew at 33/1
Captain Dunne – great run epsom, draw 1 here

Chester 9:20 Kiama Bay – step up to 10f help.

Something like:
Pycian £60 win at 9/4
Sonny Parkin £20 win and £70 place
Captain Dunne £50 win at 8/1
Piscean £20 ew at 33/1
Kiama Bay £20 win and £70 place
£30 four fold with Captain Dunne returning £11700
£10 four fold with Piscean returning £12500


I'd hung up my football boots for the summer, but the semi-finals have drawn me in!

England under 21s £100 draw at 12/5
Italy under 21s £100 draw at 9/4
£40 draw double

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Wednesday 24th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£14105 – plus £300 in play)

Current stake - £120


I have a friend visiting, so no time to post today.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Tuesday 23rd June


2009 Challenge Fund (£14305 – plus £300 in play)

Current stake - £120

Yesterday's horse has just finished running (possibly forever).

Threeplay today.

3:45 Bev – Shady Gloom – travelled best last time out when well gambled. Back 2f will help here.

7:55 New – Heritage Coast – eyecathcer in decent fillies race last time.

8:30 New – Faldal – flying too high last time – this more like it.

3 x £60 win singles and £20 win treble.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Monday 22nd June

2009 Challenge Fund (£14390 – plus £300 in play)
Current stake - £120

Ricky Barnes looked a good barking bet lay last night prior to start of 4th round.

Quiet day. Maybe some inrunning tennis bets.

However, I do like Mamlakati at Windsor this evening – the last run was better than it reads and this trip will help. £60 at 8ish, and I may get excited and double that (or cautious and save the place!).

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Sunday 21st June

2009 Challenge Fund (£14420 – plus £240 in play)
Current stake - £120

A pretty miserable read is yesterday's entry, until you get down to the bottom where Firebet, La Zamora (13/1 at the off on betfair), and a Tony Hamilton treble wiped out all the misery of Ascot. The latter actually wasn't so bad for me either as I threw a few quid at Art Connosieur late on. So, all in all, a pleasing week, even if the golf bets have literally sunk without trace.

I'll skip what looks a decent race at Pontefract today. My one bet is a small bet on Tommy Haas to win his quarter at Wimbledon. He's in top form at the moment, more than can be said for Djokovic, and most the rest.

Haas £60 at 6/1 to win 3rd quarter Wimbledon.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Saturday 20th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£13900 – plus £480 in play)

Current stake - £120


Got out of jail yesterday. Those low draw forecasts have been a godsend this week!

Loads of horses today – the old fashioned small stakes/lots of races approach to this season is proving a success but I'd forgotten just how many losers you have to put up with (I went 42 races without a winner once)!

Ascot 2:30 – no obvious view. Meglio Ancora is probably underrated given the trainer – each way.

Ascot 3:05 – I can see why the prices of the front two are getting closer, but think there may be an overreaction. Of the two I'd be with Doctor Freemantle here.

Ascot 3:45 – JJ The Jet Plane respected, but I think I'm going to stick with the Greek horse.

Ascot 4:25 – forecasts on low draws obviously. However, when it comes to an actual bet I think I'd be prepared to give Kaldoun Kingdom a go – not sure there's much point going each way if the draw does scupper that side.

Ascot 5:00 – Hatton Flight, tough and genuine. Martyr good each way price.

Ascot 5:35 – Of all the horses at Newmarket today I like Amerigo best. Chester cup run a rock solid pointer for this.

I'll go £60 a race, and the same with the races below.

Notebook horses:
Ayr 2:25 Firebet
Ayr 2:55 Jargelle
(Tony Hamilton has a cracking book of rides there today – I'll also do doubles all his runners).

Nmkt 2:10 Brave echo
Nmkt 3:50 La Zamora
Ling 7:20 Coloursoftheglen.
Chuck in a treble these three, a scoop 6 and a jackpot!!

When the dust settles we'll still have had a winning week, regardless.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Friday 19th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£13930 – plus £480 in play)
Current stake - £120

Thank God for Ripon and Danzoe! And more long shots at Ascot today...

2:30 Aegean has beaten Jealous Again, so he has to be covered. Sweet Sonnet could hardly have been more of an eyecatcher in the race we lost on Falling Angel (traded 1:01). She fell out the stalls and only got the idea in the last furlong when she took off. She should run straighter today.

3:05 These don't look topnotch - the Dante is proving a mixed bag; South Easter won for us in a terrible Chester trial; Palavicini's races against Father Time et al were hardly franked yesterday. Aqwaal has the lowest rating but isn't as far behind these as the ratings would suggest. I may keep South Easter onside.

3:45 The pace in this race could be furious which would set it up for Again, or even Rainbow View. I'm hoping the jockeys are sensible, and if so, would be prepared for Baliyana to improve past all the Guineas' winners. I'd go each way but fear her ruining her chances early, fighting for a lead from the 2 box.

4:20 I liked Moonquake's run at York, and though he did get first run on Stone of Scone, I wouldn't be bullish about the latter overturning the form here. Pinpoint likes these big field tear-ups and could grab a place late.

4:55 This race goes back to an early season maiden where Dhushan made by far the best impression, and I like him here. That said, at the prices I like Clowance House even more, who is screaming for this trip.

5:30 No real opinion. Redford back at 7f could run well.

Sweet Sonnet £30 ew (some sort of saver on Aegean)
Aqwaal £60 at 7/1 (some sort of saver on South Easter)
Baliyana £60 at 11/1
Moonquake £60 at 9/1 (something to place on Pinpoint)
Clowance House £30ew at 20/1 (some sort of saver on Dhushan)
£30 treble Aqwaal, Baliyanan, Moonquake £21000


Plus Newmarket has three notebook horses:
7:05 Cwmm Rhondda
8:10 Lowther
8:40 Cotillion
3 x £60 at £20 treble

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Thursday 18th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£14000)

Current stake - £120

Ascot – I did far better than my morning advices suggested (which makes a change!). A late play on Ouqba kick-started a good day, which felt like one from years gone by when it became apparent what a draw bis there was. I was getting stuck into forecasts and tricasts like I was back in the nineties! Anyway the week is paid for so a relaxing few days await.

It'll be interesting to see if they've done anything overnight, and if the jockeys do something about it today, so I'll be keeping some powder dry. However, a brief run down:

Firstly, two notebook horses at Ripon:
2:10 Danzoe – good form behind Atacama Crossing – need to forgive the last run but at 8/1 we can.
4:00 Snoqualmie Boy – definitely handicapped to win and run in Zetland Cup much better than it reads.

Ascot 2:30 – We got 10/1 about the Yankee speedball yesterday, when with hindsight he should have been more like the 2/1 that Yogaroo is in places this morning. I think I'll keep surfing for the fun of it even so – we Brits may never win another 2 year old race at Ascot!!

Ascot 3:05 – No strong feelings in a race I normally have a horse ready.. Take The Hint is solid and Flying Cloud maybe...

Ascot 3:45 – If we assume the sensible thing is to oppose Yeats at the price you still have to be forgiving about the others to build a case. Mine is going to look silly when he's dogged it yet again, but last time out Geordieland looked like a horse who had realised you're supposed to go by. For me this is a Rooster Booster moment – and once I spot it I back them until they revert to their old tricks (often 1 run!).

Ascot 4:20 – The remarkable thing about this race is that virtually every likely horse is drawn high. Yesterday Lovelace was unlucky that Roaring Forte was withdrawn as that would have been the pace, but even so the far side were slaughtered. An obvious approach based on yesterday is to back Brief Encounter. And Satwa Laird at a big price, and play the fcs/trifecta, and that's the way I'm heading.

Ascot 4:55 – My virtual stable has been pretty empty this year, but Palivicini is in it. The penalty a real cause for concern but still a credible each way bet, and maybe a forecast 2nd to Fremantle.

Ascot 5:30 – No strong feelings. Lasso the Moon is a talented monkey – just the type for a 20/80 bet.

Definite bets
Palivicini £60ew at 12/1
Danzoe £60 at 8/1ish
Snoqualmie Boy £60 at 5/1+
Geordieland £60 at 4/1
£25ew treble Flying Cloud/Brief Encounter/Palivicini



Wimbledon:
Murray could really do with winning either this or the US Open to get himself to the top. Otherwise he may become one of a long string of almost men stuck at 3rd/4th in the rankings. I've kept away from backing him for ages on grounds of value but 4/1 looks very fair with Nadal struggling.

The Williams sisters can be dutched at 5/4 – enough said.

Murray £120 at 4/1
Williams sisters dutch £120 at 5/4



.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Wednesday 17th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£12460)
Current stake - £120

Ascot.

God, I hope I do better today. Yesterday would have been a disaster in the old days. Instead it just stung a little! Still, a week of that would blow my profits for the year. Could be worse of course. This is the 2nd anniversary of the day we flooded!

2:30 – Trappy, trappy, trappy. Why not keep it simple (and prominent horses fared well yesterday), and keep the form men onside – Instalment each way.

3:05 – The front two are dutchable at 1.5 which seems fair.

3:45 – Much as I like Tartan Bearer, I'm of the mind that Monsieur Rouget is feeding his horses well (!), which gives him an edge at the prices here.

4:20 – Lovelace has excuses for last three runs and this should suit. Roaring Forte could also make a bold bid from the front up the far rail.

4:55 – That yankee 2 year old yesterday knew his stuff from the gate under a top jockey, and our babies are going to have to be good to peg him back from the 1 stall if the same happens again.

5:30 – Haggas is top of my trainer to follow list right now.

Something like:
Instalment £30 ew at 20/1
£120 dutch Heaven Sent and Lush Lashes
Never on a Sunday £90 at 4/1
Lovelace £20 ew at 20/1 first 5
Roaring Forte £50 at 9/1
Jealous Again £60 at 10/1
Damaniyat Girl £60 at 14/1
£30 double Haggas
Instalment/Jealous Again/Never on Sunday/Damaniyat Girl 4 x £10 trebles and £5 acc



Golf
Tiger Woods £100 at 2/1
Casey £25 ew at 25/1
Stenson £25 ew at 50/1
Curtis £20 ew at 100/1



.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Tuesday 16th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£12970)
Current stake - £120

Ascot.

2:30 – Gladitorius needs to be opposed really – until he shows his worth on turf. The milers are generally pretty poor, and at the prices I'd rather give Main Aim a chance to step up – my biggest fear isn't class or distance but whether he's a rest-pattern horse.

3:05 – Prefer the foreigners to Amour Propre to be honest. If there's a dark horse lurking it may be Spin Cycle and I'll play small each way.

3:45 – Delegator's stamina will be tested with pacemakers in here, Mastercraftsman is solid enough, but has to be opposed at the prices in these different conditions. Evasive appeals – hope he's ridden with a bit of sense though. Intense Focus worth a small saver.

4:20 – Incredibly open. I'll do a small dutch on Marsh Warbler and Treadwell (both green when winning impressively on debuts) and Alrasm (M Jarvis 2 yr old at Ascot – eyecatching, and broke track record last time out).

4:55 – Jumpers for me here – dutching Sesenta, Clopf and Fire and Rain maybe.

5:30 – Again, incredibly open 2 year old race. Little Scotland had a hopeless draw in the Hilary Needler and may be better than that. I'll chance it each way.

Something like:
Main Aim £120 at 9/2+
Evasive £120 at 5/1+
Spin Cycle £30ew at 40/1
£60 dutch Marsh Warbler/Treadwell/Alrasm
£60 dutch Sesenta/Clopf/Fire and Rain
£30 ew Little Scotland
£20 double Main Aim/Evasive
£10 trebles those two bankers with – Spin Cycle/Marsh Warbler/Fire and Rain/Little Scotland
Placepot




Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1215)


Oh dear. The time has come to close this fund. Overall it's made £580 profit, and I'm in danger of losing that pretty quickly if I keep chasing. It's been an interesting experiment though, and I intend to keep up with the barking bets, but amalgamated into the main fund above – where 1% bets won't make me rich, but will keep fund ticking over. At that level I should also find myself freed up to play more.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Monday 15th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£13030)

Current stake - £120

Quiet day today – no obvious bet.



Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1415)


Yesteday - Backed Murray – good. Backed India in-running – bad.

Today - Warwick 7:10 dutch Aalsmeer and Velvet Band at 1.5ish

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Sunday 14th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£13160)
Current stake - £120

Right, back and refreshed for the week ahead.

Horses I'm thinking of backing today – 20/80 types, but not necessarily 20/80 prices:

Donc 2:55 Dazeen
Donc 3:30 Internationaldebut (Piscean and Inter Vision also appeal if ground rides quicker than advertised)
Donc 4:05 Honours Stride
Salis 4:15 Fly By Nelly



Not sure what I'll do but I'll definitely do the four fold.



Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1535)

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Thursday 11th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£12930)

Current stake - £120

Just time to put a full day's racing up before I go to London. All notebook horses.

2:00 Nott - Motivational £60 at 7/2 (eyecatcher debut, not much to beat here, small stable)
3:00 Nott – Firebet – £60 at 7/2 (step up to mile help, gave winner race last time out, stable hot)
3:35 Nott – Candy Ride £60 at 5/2 (eyecatcher on first run, caught a tartar last time)
£20 treble

4:55 Newbury – Devil To Pay £60 win at 3/1 (12f needed, typical Dunlop type)
5:35 Yarmouth – Tinkerbelle £60 win at 4/1 (eyecatching run last time out, typical Dunlop type)
£20 double

£20 fivefold



Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1535)

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Thursday 9th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£11950)
Current stake - £120

Looks like I'll be able to squeeze a little bit of betting in.

Salisbury – I'm going to do a few doubles on Hughie Morrison's runners – Imperial Warrior and Cill Rialag are notebook horses and this looks a cheap way to get them on-side.

Morrison's runners (not Heritage Coast)
10 x £5 doubles
5 x £2 fourfolds
1 x £1 acc.





Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1535)

Sunday, June 07, 2009

Sunday 7th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£12000)

Current stake - £120

All set for a quiet week – with my wife off all week and some day trips and a London break all booked in. So, things will be slow or non-existent on here until Ascot. Let's hope I can shake off the poor showing of the last week or so.





Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1410)

Federer – don't let me down!

Saturday, June 06, 2009

Saturday 6th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£12570- £50 in play unaccounted)
Current stake - £120

That was a trying day yesterday – at least I had some of the place money on High Heeled (which I hadn't planned on doing). More satisfyingly, I stuck to my guns with the second Fanshawe horse last night, even after the major non-trying drift on his first horse, his lack of form the last fortnight, a jockey I don't trust and Escorial putting it up as a lay! Rescued the day and doesn't have me in a tiltish mood today. Which is just as well with the rain falling.

Anyway.

Derby. There's a really good thread on the betfair racing forum entitled “Schizo Derby Preview”. Really sums up what a strange race this is. You can make a case for any of 6 horses being potential superstars and at exactly the same time rubbish their chances! Where that leaves me is with the trial winners who are being allowed to go off at what look big prices, albeit some will most probably be used as sacrifical lambs, to get Sea The Stars beat. I also like the Chester race, and Debussy's form with Midday – the Oaks yesterday was run at a cracking pace.

Elsewhere, I'll play in the sprint (must be mad) where Crimson Fern looks well drawn to stay on late past tiring speedsters. And Philip Robinson trudges up to Musselburgh to ride Kings Destiny, which will give him plenty more time to reflect on pissing away his one big derby chance on Hala Bek, not that my pocket is still talking about it!

Age of Aquarius (already)
Black Bear Island £50 win at 9/1ish
Masterofthehorse £50 win at 18/1ish
Golden Sword £25ew at 40/1
Debussy £25ew at 66/1

Crimson Fern £40ew at 11/1
Kings Destiny £60 win at 3/1

Crimson Fern/Kings Destiny/Black Bear Island £10 to win £4300
Crimson Fern/Kings Destiny/Age of Aquarius £10 to win £9000
Crimson Fern/Kings Destiny/Masterofthehorse £10 to win £9000
Crimson Fern/Kings Destiny/Golden Sword £10 to win £13000







Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1500)

Friday, June 05, 2009

Friday 5th June


2009 Challenge Fund (£12590- £180 in play unaccounted)

Current stake - £120

Chucked a couple of hundred away again yesterday – hardly top form heading into Epsom.

1:45 – Lovelace has been eyecatching lately but will need to be charged up to defy a penalty. Confront looks a fair price at 6/4 and over.

2:45 – I'd much rather have both the progressive Duncan and the classic winning Look Here on my side at roughly the same price as perennial loser Youmzain by himself.

4:05 – We already have Oh Goodness Me and High Heeled ante post, and to be honest though you have to be forgiving about the form (particularly the latter last time out), at the prices I'm not inclined to change trains.

Fanshawe runs a couple of notebook horses this evening at Doncaster – just hope I'm not digging by then.

Confront £60 at 6/4 or better
Duncan £60 at 11/2ish
Look Here £60 at 11/2ish
Oh Goodness Me – top-up £40 at 14/1
High Heeled – top-up £20 at 50/1
2 x £15 trebles with Oh Goodness Me
2 x £10 trebles with High Heeled






Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1500)

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Thursday 4th June

2009 Challenge Fund (£12790- £180 in play unaccounted)
Current stake - £120

Chucked a couple of hundred away yesterday – not clever.

Similar today.

Horses I'm considering:
Hamilton 2:10 - Rock of Love (decent run last time – would need to be odds against though)
Sandown 6:10 - Warning Song (likely to drift after seemingly poor run last time and poor draw here. However, run was OK last time, with Leicester's stiff 6f too far, and he should get out against mainly unraced animals and minimise effect of draw. 3/1 fair – with a wary eye on any well-backed newcomers.)
Sandown 8:25 – Twisted – (odds against).



Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1500)


Serena Williams in-play continued this fund's hopeless run. Federer and Safina look backable favourites now.

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Wednesday 3rd June

2009 Challenge Fund (£13030- £180 in play unaccounted)
Current stake - £120

Fantastic Prince at Ayr and Velvet Band at Nottingham are possible bets, but I can't get overly excited about either. I ended up backing Veroon yesterday and have re-invested the winnings on the Oaks/Derby as follows:

Oh Goodness Me £40 win at 16/1
Oh Goodness Me/Gan Amhras £30 to return £4000
Oh Goodness Me/Age of Aquarius £15 to return £6500
Oh Goodness Me/Golden Sword £15 to return £8500

(Last year we landed the first leg of the double, and were on for a five figure return on virtually every credible runner in the Derby. Bar the winner of course. I'll keep Bolger on side this year!)

Midweek gold madness:
Dougherty and (of course) Kevin Na £20ew double returning £45000ish



Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1645)

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Tuesday 2nd June

2009 Challenge Fund (£13050- £80 in play unaccounted)
Current stake - £120


Looks like a day off in the sun.



Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1645)


If I get bored of the sun I may watch some tennis!

Monday, June 01, 2009

Monday 1st June

2009 Challenge Fund (£13030- £140 in play unaccounted)
Current stake - £120

Leicester throws up three possibles.

2:00 Warningsong – eyecatching maiden, well drawn compared to the other raced challenger.
3:00 Pride of Kings – better performance thanit looked last time from poor draw – Johnston improver – could get soft lead.
3:30 Carcinetto – looks her conditions for first time in a while, as long as it's more tactical than stamina test - no real reason she shouldn't be fave.

3 x £60 at 3/1ish
1 x £20 treble




Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £1645 – 1 bet in play unaccounted)


The fund survives for now!