Saturday, May 28, 2011

Champions League final and Haydock

If betting tonight, and you haven't had your accounts closed, there's two good deals - Bet365 will match your pre-match bet up to £50 with a free in-running bet, and Paddy Power will refund correct score etc bets if Barcelona win in 90 minutes.

No obvious value, typically. However, I've always thought penalties in finals are wrongly-priced, though I don't have the raw data to prove it. Saturday Gamblers don't need proof of course, just a dubious statistic and 3 of the last 8 champions league finals have gone to penalties - that'll do for me.

The sprint at Haydock has a clear favourite, who has legitimate credentials. I prefer to take the wider view that sprinters (with the possible exception of Delegator) aren't group 1 animals at all, and so have very little by way of class edge over each other. So we have to go against the fave here. The Cheka, who never wins, especially when I'm backing, and High Standing (already been thrashed twice by the fave) are the illogical looking choices, but prices dictated. If the fave is a non runner we're in trouble...you may want to keep powder dry for a bit yet, unless like me you're going out for the day.


So £50 on Champions Leageue to go to penalties at 11/2ish
and £50 dutched The Cheka and High Standing at 7/2ish

I'll leave you to make up your own get rich quick treble.


Be lucky...

1 comment:

  1. Nice winner - so we can bank our profits and settle back and enjoy the football regardless!

    ReplyDelete