Cold-headed, hard-bitten, grizzly old gambling pros can't let prejudice and irrationality get in the way of the business of turning a profit. Luckily Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints and I can safely say I'm opposing the favourite today just because it belongs to the Queen.
Which should make it easy because Recital has rock solid form. And if there's one person I dislike more than royalty it's Kieran Fallon. So, his absence this morning via a ridiculous courtroom decision has already made me a winner on the day. However, if there's one group of people I dislike more than royalty and Kieran Fallon combined it's O'Brien and the Coolmore mafia, something which has cost me a fortune in flat racing over the years, so I'm going to avoid Recital anyway, and discard the rest of their runners also (though ever the hypocrite I do have a modest ante post on Seville from ages ago). Which leaves Pour Moi, but those of us who put their mortgage on Pennekamp winning all those years ago aren't likely to be following (the admittedly brilliant) Fabre this time round either.
People I do like are sadly running no-hopers. Which leaves me with Vadamar and Ocean War. The latter will need a better ride than the truly terrible one Frankie gave the favourite yesterday, and I'm liking Vadamar more the more I look at it. OK so the French haven't won since the very first time I ever went to the Derby aged 15. And OK, so he was beaten by Pour Moi, and his best form is on soft ground. Let's say he had an off-day against Pour Moi (and was odds-on that race); let's say he's bred to like faster ground, and a trip; and let's say the jockey won't ride Epsom as hopelessly as all his countrymen have in my adulthood.
That being so, 20/1 each way at 1/3rd odds for those of you with Bet365 accounts, is worthy of a completely rational, coldly logical, value-added thump...
£40ew Vadamar 20/1
and do a forecast with Ocean War
Get rich quick - Falasteen/St Moritz and Vadamar aiming for £20k or so.
Be lucky....
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When I wrote that I didn't know Fallon had signed a contract. Even funnier now it's his own fault...
ReplyDelete"Cold-headed, hard-bitten, grizzly old gambling pros can't let prejudice and irrationality get in the way of the business of turning a profit"
ReplyDeletemade me laugh toots ....