Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Weds 18th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£966– 2 bets running)

Some good news yesterday – Romania not bottom and Murtagh flying in the top jockey.

Otherwise a real downer. Luca Toni (or Rigatone as my wife calls him) plays like limp pasta with an inedible sauce. Jamie Spencer did his Frank impersonation again on Cesare, where O'Brien team tactics ruined the race again (and I backed Haradasun). And Jimmy Fortune decided to give Henry first run – and Ravens Pass didn't get nearly enough plaudits in all the fawning over the champ.


No wonder I'm a bit grumpy this morning.

Today's racing I'll hope Jupiter Pluvius comes on from his last run; chance Pipedreamer to step up and take Oceana Gold over Bankable. For our bet I think we can go for three in the big race at a shade of odds on.

£20 Dutched Duke of Marmalade, Sixties Icon and Pipedreamer at 4/5+





Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1370)
(Win yesterday supplmented by a very lucky win in Thirsk claimer)


  1. Tennis Radwanska beat Rezzai £140 at 1.25



Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Tuesday 17th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£976– 3 bets running)


Tiger Woods – heart big as a bucket.


Ascot today looks almost impossible. The Queen Anne is my favourite race of the meeting and I haven't a clue this morning. In the King's Stand I prefer Magnus over Takeover Target at the prices, and have a sneaky regard for Enticing, one year older and in first time blinkers. 33/1 looks very playable. In the long distance handicap my eye is drawn to Emma Lavelle's Daltaban. As we know from our big priced Cheltenham winner, the girl doesn't know how to lie straight in bed, and it just may be that this one will run a big race here. The market suggests not, but choose between 66/1 each way or any price you like to win on betfair.


I feel kinda lucky this morning. Tonight (first day of Ascot) is the night we flooded a year ago. We seem to have come through it all pretty well. So how about pushing the luck with an each way double!


The St James's Palace revolves round Henry and I'm with Corals on wanting to oppose at the price. I'm taken that Twice Over and especially Ravens Pass are keen to oppose and Falco looked pretty decent last time too. I wouldn't go odds on Henry, let alone 4/7. We can dutch the three main opponents and hope one lowers his colours.


Football tonight and must win games in third round matches mean goals historically. Italy's and France's defences didn't look up to much against Holland. Odds against looks big.


£20 dutch Twice Over/Falco/Ravens Pass at 2/1+

£20 Italy/France Over 2.5 goals at 5/4






Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1324)
(Azarenka's injury reminds me that it's the week before a major and a tanking red flag is required)


  1. Tennis Verdasco beat Daniel £140 at 1.17

Monday, June 16, 2008

Monday 16th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£951– 3 bets running)


Probably a poor bet yesterday. Move on.


I wouldn't put anyone off hedging on Tiger Woods this morning at 1.3. I have.


For today's bet let's cover the probability that the stable I like least do best at Ascot. Presumably Murtagh can be trusted to pick the right horses. I like this market – there's usually trading/hedging opportunities.


£20 Murtagh top jockey Royal Ascot 5/4




Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1414)
(I've banked another £150 and upped stakes to £140. Hopefully it won't be another 6 weeks before we bank again!)


There to be a penalty shootout at Euro 2008 £140 at 1.24
Dutch O'Brien and Stoute top Ascot trainer £140 at 1.31
Tennis Tursunov beat Lu £140 at 1.24
Tennis Gasquet beat Rochus £140 at 1.12
Tennis Azarenka beat Rezai £140 at 1.15

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Sunday 14th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£971– 3 bets running)


My match betting not exactly good on here so far. At least Spain wrapped up the group, and Tiger is on course.


Salisbury hosts a decent listed sprint today, and maybe Borderlescott can finally land a listed race. I was worried about his draw initially but the pace is high and I can see them drifting across, potentially causing problems for those behind. Swiss Franc has decent form behind Fat Boy and Henrythenavigator. I'd make the two of them more like 66% dutched rather than the 60% or better currently available. Hopefully Borderlescott will drift as layers want to get him based on past record at this level and the draw. Most of the rest are readily opposable, and I'll take on the Channon horse.


Salisbury 3:35 £20 Dutch Borderlescott and Swiss Franc at 4/6+




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1564)

(29/31 for the last fortnight. I think I'll aim to not play today and so be able to bank something and up stakes.)



Saturday, June 14, 2008

Saturday June 14th

£500 Challenge Bet” (£954– 4 bets running)


A quick update on the in-play bets.


US Open
Woods is looking Ok, Donald hanging on and Cink not entirely done yet. I'm looking at small hedges on Ogilvy and Karlsson but in no rush.


Spain win group
Spain win today and that should be job done.


Romania not to finish bottom, and to qualify
Romania very unlikely to finish bottom of group – they'd need Italy/France to draw which would suit neither AND be thrashed by Holland. Whether Holland ease up and allow them to qualify who knows. They are 1.8 to qualify as it stands. The more circumspect amongst you could take insurance on that part of bet.


Name the finalists
The name the finalists should still provide a run for your money, and though Germany and Italy have done nothing for the bet, both could have a say yet. How about a small hedgeon Croatia/Romania at 80s!


Racing not very exciting today, and the sort of day in the past where I've played like a fool and switched the laptop off at the end of it wondering how I could have bet like such a twat.


So, let's stick with the football. Greece looked horrible first game. Then again, so did Russia. And these first games haven't proven great indicators of the second game. On the other hand the market has massively overreacted. Greece should be much shorter in my book (and were prior to the first game), to get something from the game.


£20 Greece +0.5 at 1.75




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1537)

(18/19 so far this week. It would be nice to bank some money so I'm treading warily on what I tend to think is the worst day of the week for these type of bets.)

  1. Sandown Dutch Corrybrough and Tajdeef £120 at 1.22

Friday, June 13, 2008

Friday 13th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£954– 4 bets running)


The Croatian fans were singing “Deutschland Auf Widersehen” yesterday. Every gambler I know is opinionated beyond arrogance – or as Danny Baker would have it “Opinions on everything; often wrong; always certain.” Not surprising really, when the job means you make so many decisions – contrarian ones usually. However, alongside their cold blooded, logical side, every gambler I know also has a superstitious side. Mine, and I'm not alone in this, is a wariness of the sin of hubris. Whenever I say anything positive about my gambling I immediately fear the gods of gambling will be listening and punish me with a withering losing streak.


So, for me the Croatian fans might just as well have been begging the gods to meet the Germans again in the semis, where they'll be beaten. On penalties.


Croatia put a spanner in my daily bet yesterday. However, as I said their match price was silly and I happily admit I played them as a hedge and so have already covered my stake on the finalists market. Sorry not to have advised that yesterday, or indeed just put up Croatia to win as I was originally going to do, before my supposedly cast-iron opinions faltered!


No bet today.



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1395)

(The tennis turned out OK, but then I threw in a stinker at Haydock.)

.

  1. Tennis Blake beat Beck £120 at 1.20

  2. Tennis Wickmayer beat South £120 at 1.35

  3. 3:00 Market Rasen Georgian King £120 at 1.30

  4. Rugby Union – All Blacks beat England £120 at 1.11

  5. Rugby League – St Helens beat Bradford £120 at 1.09


Thursday, June 12, 2008

Thursday 12th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£974– 4 bets running)


Some of the prices for the Euro matches have moved far too much on the basis of one one match. The Czech/Portugal game yesterday and the Croatia/Germany game this evening for two. I'm very hesitant to oppose the moves though. In fact my bet for the day will work on the basis that the probable finalists can be whittled down to just 5 – based on what we've seen so far. I like the name the finalists market this tournament, because of the way the draw has been designed, and getting 1.8 for the obvious 5 looks a good bet to me – with hedging possibilities on possible spoilers – say Croatia or Sweden.


£20 Dutch following teams in “name the finalists” market

Germany/Portugal

Holland/Italy/Spain

6 bets at combined odds of 1.8.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1452)

(A couple more winners yesterday – that's 9/9 for the week. This feels great, but is of course what you actually need to do! There are a couple of maidens at Newbury that look possible, but grade 1 tracks the sort of place where some of the unknown quantities could be useful so late market info essential)


  1. Tennis Roddick beat Fish £120 at 1.14

  2. Tennis Safarova beat Parra Santoyna £120 at 1.11 (in-play as I write and struggling!)

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Weds 11th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£994– 3 bets running)


Seasoned campaigners look away now, I'm back on the golf.


Most of this is pretty obvious so I won't waste your time with the reasoning.


Woods £10 win at 7/2

Donald £2.50 ew at 33/1

Cink £5 place at 7/1




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1398)

(A good day – all the tennis won, bar Cibulkova who sensibly withdrew a point from defeat in the first set! A horse winner aw well and fund reaches new high. Too busy looking at the Nottingham jackpot to trawl through the tennis, but there are three possible races at Beverley later.)


Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Tuesday June 10th

£500 Challenge Bet” (£994– 3 bets running)


As slipperytoad says – there I was Derby day, bases loaded, only needing a single to win the World Series. A sacrifice bunt would have done the trick. And I strike-out, not even swinging. Jim Bolger won't be getting any congratulations cards from me that's for sure. I obviously should have hedged on the damned horse though.


Anyway, I'm back refreshed from a nice break in sunny Dorset. A friend showed me how to fish for mackerel. It's amazingly complicated. What you do is go to the beach, throw a line in the water, reel it in and kill the five mackerel that have kindly leapt onto the hooks for you. Most obliging of them, and they're beautiful barbecued!

I could play the football tonight, and may yet. Greece look slightly too long, and perhaps we could play at +0.5 or lay Sweden.

Spain look hyped short, but I have to say Russia were rubbish in qualifying and I couldn't play them here. We have Spain to win the group anyway, so regardless of whether I get sucked in or not later, no bet for here.


Romania did Ok first match, so that bet remains in play – would have liked them to have beaten France though to be honest, I saw that as their easiest game.



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1257)

(Let's get this going again. Another week passes by without banking any profits – tiresome, but I remain optimistic.Probably too many matches here, but first rounds are where the most mis-matches are, and the most tanking/injury withdrawals/cheating!)


  1. Weber tennis – Blake beat Phau £120 at 1.14

  2. Stella Tortoise – Gonzalez beat Bloomfield £120 at 1.15

  3. Stella Tortoise – Malisse beat Evans £120 at 1.11

  4. Warsaw – Monaco beat Janovicz £120 at 1.14

  5. Warsaw – Robredo beat Przsizny £120 at 1.12

  6. Barcelona – Kirilenko beat Osterloh £120 at 1.10

  7. Barcelona – Cibulkova beat Cohen-Aloro £120 at 1.16


Saturday, June 07, 2008

Saturday 7th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£982– 3 bets running)


The fund looking rather healthy after yesterday. The initial aim of the £500 challenge bet was to show that betting conservatively, you could double your money over a year. Obviously doubling £500 is no big deal, but I chose that sum because that was how I started all those years ago, and because a friend who knew nothing about gambling wanted to dabble with a minimal amount. If you'd used a bigger fund and staked proportionally as I did, then I trust you can see the merit.


Now, I realise one of you is waiting to charge into my Derby longshot but I'm actually not betting on the race today. Look Here has provided me with doubles running onto 5 horses – Kandahar Run, Tajaweed, Dr Freemantle, Casual Conquest and Tartan Bearer. The doubles on Dr Freemantle and particularly Kandahar Run are dribble inducing so they're the ones I'll be cheering. The only horse I really fear is Curtain Call (along with the dark shadow O'Brien's horses cast over all my racing bets).


If I was to price the race up this morning I think I'd go 13/2 each of 7. That means Dr Freemantle and Tajaweed would be the remaining “value” in the race. Then again, if you simply asked me for who I thought would win I'd say Tartan Bearer.


So, not much help. Sorry. Go Henry go!


Instead I'll head for Euro 2008 and our first match bet.


My ratings for internationals are probably not as robust as my league ratings, but I have Turkey at 55% to get something out of tonight's game against an over-rated Portugal. Ronaldo could make that look silly but I'll still play.


Turkey £20 +0.5 Asians at 5/4



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1240 – 2 inrunning, unaccounted)

(Nothing yesterday – not today)


I'm taking a break Sunday/Monday whatever happens in the derby – back next week.

Friday, June 06, 2008

Friday 6th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£837– 4 bets running)


It looks like a cracking race for the Oaks. I've settled on three. Lush Lashes has looked a very good horse the last twice and the experience will be useful – there's some Irish challengers who look high on potential but low on street suss. Michita was very impressive in her trail and I've always been a fan of the downhill trials. In contradiction to that I'll complete the portfolio with a horse who was all at sea round the bend at Lingfield – Look Here – in the hope she won't repeat the mistake and plug on late!


In the Coronation Cup it's easy to see that Getaway is a rotten price on bare form. Sometimes though you just have to go with your eyes, and to me he looked like taking top order this year, and I've never been much of a fan of Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain, Red Rocks and Papal Bull.


Oaks

£10 Lush Lashes 3/1+

£5 Michita 12/1

£2.50 ew Look Here 40/1


Coronation

Getaway £20 win at 11/8 or better



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1240 – 2 inrunning, unaccounted)

(Another good day yesterday – only the one loss this week – though from only 10 bets. I could do Federer but as we have him to reach final above, will sit it out. Could also dutch Getaway and Soldier of Fortune, but not sure that's the sort of race to include in this. So no obvious bets today yet.)


Thursday, June 05, 2008

Thursday 5th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£877– 2 bets running)


Let's do a couple of Euro 2008 bets. This looks a remarkably open tournament. I have positions on a few countries but can't see much of value in the outright market. However there are two group bets we can get involved in.


Spain look rock solid to win Group D against three moderate evenly-rated teams who are likely to take points off each other. Expect Spain to blow their chances as usual later in the competition but winning this group shouldn't be beyond even them.


I had an early bet on Romania to win the whole thing, before they were handed the dead duck slot in the group of death. However, there's reason to think they could do Ok here. Italy and France look to be fading, and Holland didn't beat them in the qualifying. 7/2 to qualify looks too long, but I am particularly attracted to around Evens on them not to finish bottom.



£20 Spain to win Group D at 5/6 or better

£15 Romania to not finish bottom Group C at Evens

£5 Romania to qualify from Group C at 7/2



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1156)

(A good day yesterday and in profit for the week. There are a couple of other possible races at Newton Abbot today.)


  1. Dutch Germany and Croatia to win Group B £120 at 1.17

  2. Newton Abbot 4:30 Dutch front two £120 at 1.25

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Weds 4th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£877– 2 bets running)



I'll be spending today on the Oaks/Derby and Euro 2008, so no bet today, but should have a few to make up for it from tomorrow.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1061)

(Djokovic fine and a Ripon bet helped me inch back. There are some possible races this afternoon, but I'm finding the market is having a big part to play in my final decision making, particularly as the races involved are often maidens and sellers.)


  1. Kuznetsova beat Kinepi £120 at 1.10


Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Tuesday 3rd June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£877– 2 bets running)



Gubbed in a photo yesterday. I was going to suggest a dutch at Ripon this afternoon, but it's apparently raining heavily there at the moment – so no bet today.


I'll probably play the placepot – a small rollover and desperate ground appeal.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1011)

(The bet I put here won OK – shame I included my daily bet in here as well! Not at all the start to the week we could have done with. Tennisinsight still appears down which is worrying.)


1. Djokovic beat Gulbis £120 at 1.12



Monday, June 02, 2008

Monday 2nd June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£897– 2 bets running)



A possible bet today but only if the going remains good, and with thunderstorms forecast that may be unlikely.


And it's a seller sprint at Leicester – hardly a phrase to warm the cockles of a gambler's heart.


Still the front one is the only horse that could be labelled a winner in the field and the secodn favourite looks his only realistic opponent. I'd be somewhere between 60 and 66% the two – we should be able to get them for 55-60%


2:30 Leics Dutch Doubtful Sound/Avertitop £20 at 4/6 or better.





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1100)

(The last two weeks the strike rate has been around 80% - which is good enough to just about break even – but we need to be over 85% for this to work. I need to show more discretion for sure)


Tennis bets proving problematic as the website I use for form has been down for two days.


So just a racing bet today.


  1. Naas 3:40 Dutch Tax Free/Contest/Snaefell and Loan Express £120 at 1.25

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Sunday 1st June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£897– 2 bets running)


A very good evening – the fat lady sung, and greyhound dug deep, and as if that wasn't enough my favourite guilty pleasure warbled a song or two including a lyric that could easily apply to my move.


“LA's fine the sun shines all the time,

And the feeling is laid back.

Palm trees grow and the rents are low

But you know I keep thinking about making my way back.

I'm New York City born and raised

But nowadays I'm lost between two shores.

LA's fine but it aint home

New York's home but it aint mine no more.”


I think I'll have a day off today.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1070)

(Was looking good yesterday with a couple of races added in, and then Soderling collapsed like a girl in the Bigg Market after 10 barcardi breezers).


No bets today. And so another hopeless week. Not losing any money though, so will keep plugging away.


Saturday, May 31, 2008

Saturday 31st May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£837– 3 bets running)


Racing looks very tricky again.


Instead I'll head for Wimbledon. If I was still in Tooting I'd certainly be heading out for one of the best sporting nights of the year but instead I'll have to try to catch this race in between poor TV shows this evening! Ninja Jamie would be very close to favourite for the main event had he qualified. He should gain sime recompense here. There may be barking opportunities on the card – the supporting races are usually very uncompetitive.


8:45 Wimbledon £20 Ninja Jamie at Evens




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1088)

(Not much happened of note yesterday and a watching brief on the races today.)


  1. Soderling beat Benneteau £120 at 1.19

  2. Dementieva bt Govortsova £120 at 1.11

  3. Zvonereva bt Wozniak £120 at 1.07


Friday, May 30, 2008

Friday 30th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£857– 2 bets running)


Poor last night at Sandown and I wouldn't have thought the form of either race will stand much scrutiny. Regime just out of the places – which could have recovered our stake – and it's always disheartening when you back Richard Hughes and need him to be strong in a finish!


A change today. I've been playing the TV show “I'd Do Anything” and frankly have a mess of a book. However, come final night I'm prepared to make it even worse by suggesting Samantha will be the first to leave. Jodie and Jessie are yet to be in the bottom two, whilst Samantha didn't even beat Rachel last week and the latter was very unpopular throughout. I wuite like the tricast Jodie/Jessie/Sam but will keep it simple as usual here.


£20 Sam to come third Evens.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1066)

(A good fightback yesterday with all the tennis bets landed, supplemented by a couple of horse races. Can't find anything today though so far.)


Thursday, May 29, 2008

Thursday 29th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£877– 2 bets running)


Nice result yesterday. Sandown tonight. Sadly I have to go to the in-laws for dinner!


Allegretto has more to do here than when winning last year – but I still keep being drawn to him. I think I'll actually save on the fave in a race which looks like a match and could easily sit down below. As usual will keep it simpler here.


The big race looks more open. Lucarno will do well to give away the penalty over this trip; Happy Boy could be anything and Pipedreamer should get the pace he needs. There's a few at 20/1 who could conceivably step up as well. The one horse sure to be suited by all the conditions though is Regime. He's weak this morning but with a nice draw as well (granted a free passage) he looks a decent ew price.


7:15 Sandown Allegretto £10 win at 9/2

7:45 Sandown Regine £5ew at 12/1 + (quarter odds)




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £942)

(Up to date and it doesn't make great reading. A couple of horse races helped me but if we drew a graph of our performance it would be a continuous downhill line from the end of the first week. We could do with a good rest of week now).


  1. Tennis Soderling beat Capdelle £120 at 1.13

  2. Tennis Warwrinka beat Cilic £120 at 1.16

  3. Tennis Gonzalez beat Andyar Abal £120 at 1.16

  4. Tennis Stepanek beat Vanek £120 at 1.13


Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Weds 28th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£807– 2 bets running)


Let's give Great Leighs a chance today. In the big race Pinpoint looks like he'll struggle in a race not run to suit, and Secret World should be having a gentle comeback, and could be buzzy. Many Volumes carries a penalty. Muttajarred could get a soft lead here and I'd have him around the 5/2 mark personally. I haven't fully decided how to play the race. I could dutch both the front two should Many Volumes drift, or I may just back Muttajarred, hope he gets loose on the lead, and be prepared to trade in-running. As usual I'll keep it easy on here.


Muttajarred £20 win at 7/2






Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank too many bets running to work it out!)

(A horse race that was hopeless and Germany made me look and feel a mug yesterday. We've already done 16 bets this week. Clearly I've fallen into the trap of looking on all shorties as opportunities and not thinking critically enough. I need to add some rules to my approach. No bets today – we still have a load of tennis matches pending – whilst I firm up my approach.


Here's three obvious rules.

  1. Set a limit on daily bets – I'd say 5. Whilst we need to be flexible I clearly need to calm myself down and stop myself chasing every possibility.

  2. Look to have good reasons for backing AND good reasons for laying – eg the tennis player backed should be a solid winner AND the opponent should have negatives.

  3. Avoid all situations where there can be “tanking” - eg international friendlies(!), and various tennis matches.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Tuesday 27th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£807– 2 bets running)



Phil Taylor. Winners.


No bet today.





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank too many bets running to work it out!)

(A very good day yesterday. Tennis winners backed up with two late plays in a claimer and seller at Leicester – not a sentence I ever thought I'd write! Three matches subject to rain delay which may be a problem today as well).


Todays bets

  1. Tennis Benneteau beat Spadea £120 at 1.19

  2. Tennis Calleri beat Fish £120 at 1.18

  3. Tennis Schiavone beat Craybas £120 at 1.17

  4. Tennis Mattek beat Bengle £120 at 1.25

  5. Tennis Safina beat Bondarenko £120 at 1.1


Monday, May 26, 2008

Monday 26th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£818 – 1 bet running)



The Guineas were good to us.


Two bets today. First an obvious one – Phil Taylor to win Premier League darts. He looks better than ever after his dip in form; is the only one averaging over 100 and is way over; and is winning pretty much every tournament there is. I'm taking 2/5 on him in thebarking bets section below, so still being able to get 4/9 is a bonus.


The other I meant to put up yesterday and the odds may have contracted a little bit. With Henin gone and no obvious replacement, people are suggesting the women's tennis is wide open. Only up to a point I'd say. Four players look way ahead of the rest on ability/current form. You can dutch them all at 4/6.


£20 Phil Taylor win Premier League darts at 4/9

£20 Dutch Sharapova, Jankovic, S Williams and Ivanovic at 4/6





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1200 – 1 bet running)

(another day – another loser, and actually a small loss on the week. Frustrating. Overall our strike rate is down to 85%. Tennis 84% and only 98% returns. Racing is much better with 109% returns. I can only improve on the tennis bets but the racing bets may become more of the mainstay – especially if the French Open goes tits up)


Todays bets

  1. Phil Taylor win darts £120 at 1.4

  2. Tennis Gonzalez beat Cuevas £120 at 1.2

  3. Tennis Granollers-Puyol beat Berra £120 at 1.19

  4. Tennis Verdasco beat Ventura £120 at 1.15

  5. Tennis Kirilenko beat Camerin £120 at 1.11

  6. Tennis Radwanska beat Korrytseva £20 at 1.13


Sunday, May 25, 2008

Sunday 25th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£800 – 1 bet running)


Irish 1000 Guineas today. Personally I thought the English version was a mess of a race. The lack of pace was one thing and the other was there looked to be a draw bias – perhaps a strip of faster ground under the rail. All in all it was an unsatisfactory race and I would be far from sure the form will work out. Throw in the way fillies improve and regress at this time of year; that the two O'Brien horses were given far from hard races; and that there's a few Irish fillies held back especially for this, and it's not hard to conclude the front two are a bit short. Slipperytoad tells me Nahoodh could also have stamina limitations – hardly tested in our Guineas.


I'd go 6/4 the front two and we can lay them at around 1.9


Lay Nahoodh and Saoirse Abu to lose £20 at around 1.9



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1212 – 1 bet running)

(I did three races during the day – all Ok, although one photo finish was a buttock clencher. Sadly I then went on to tackle the two hunter chases at Stratford and hit the buffers. Consecutive losses are pretty horrible in this fund. Sadly we are back where we were about three weeks ago, and that's a lot of standing still. The early rounds of the French Open look a big opportunity/risk. I haven't had time to look at the women's yet, but let's kick-off the men's today.)


Todays bets

  1. Curragh 3:00 Duke of Marmalade £120 at 1.4

  2. Tennis Nalbandian beat Berlocq £1210 at 1.08

  3. Tennis Almagro beat Pashanski £120 at 1.09

  4. Tennis Rochus beat Decourd £120 at 1.25

  5. Tennis Acasuso beat Hrbaty £120 at 1.17

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Saturday 24th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£770 – 1 bet running)


I was looking at the Irish 2000 Guineas with a view to including it as a banker bet. Jupiter Pluvius isn't ready judged solely on Ladbrokes' prices and whilst I'll be playing each way doubles with Stubbs Art (can't desert him entirely!) it does look a match.


However, the more I looked at it the more confused I was as to why Henrythenavigator wasn't favourite. New Approach had the run of the race in the Guineas but was still outgunned. I ended up thinking 13/8 was a very fair price.


£20 win Henrythenavigator 13/8




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1375 – 1 bet running)

(A couple of late plays on the horses added to the successful tennis bets puts us up for the week. When I have bets that are in play I usually account them as losers. For this fund though I'll account them as winners, so that I can bank/increase stakes) There are a number of possible races today – for example 2:15 Catterick and3:55 Beverley. But I can't find anything obvious right now.


Todays bets

None advised



Friday, May 23, 2008

Friday 23rd May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£790)



A very poor day's racing today – looks like it was designed by a bookmaker's stooge.


For the challenge lets look forward to the French Open tennis. A year goes by but not much has changed. Nadal is all but unbeatable on clay, Federer's class carries him through against all but Nadal, and only Djokovic looks to have a chance against them. Injuries and disasters look in the price and we can back the big two to be the finalists (as we have done for the last two years) at a fair price. I'll hedge around Djokovic once more prices are up but keep it simple on here.


Nadal/Federer finalists French Open £20 at 7/4 or better



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1240)

(I played a couple of extra races, and La Pantera Rosa falling when winning cost me my profits. That's two small field NH races that have done for us – they do have a disaster factor that could possibly discount them from this approach. A couple of French Open qualifiers today, and see above for thoughts on French Open which begs a bet here. Racing looks too difficult – the last at Haydock a possibility).



Todays bets

  1. French Open winner – Dutch Nadal/Federer/Djokovic £120 at 1.12

  2. French Open Schwank beat Bozoljiac £120 at 1.3

  3. French Open Bellucci beat Zib £120 at 1.32

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Thurs 22nd May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£770)



Even I felt a bit sorry for John Terry last night!


Sixties Icon is the puzzler today. He has the class and that was a cracking run last time after a wind op, just outgunned by a very smart horse. Blue Ksar has to give weight and simply isn't as good. Icon travels well and it's just a case of whether the distance will undo him. I'd trust Ryan to get the fractions right – either sit in off a good pace or make it yourself. He could well drift later and I haven't fully decided whether to back Sixties alone or dutch. The market will decide that for me later. For here I'll take the Evens (gauranteed)


Sixties Icon £20 win at Evens guaranteed.



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1272)

(A third set tie break caught up with us yesterday but I added a couple of successful races. I'm going to skip the tennis for the rest of the week – I sense pre-French tanking. There's a few races – particularly at Wetherby – that could be playable later. )


Todays bets

  1. Goodwood 2:50 Dutch Sixties Icon and Blue Ksar £120 at 1.25

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Wedsnesday 21st May

Not sure what happened to yesterday's posting. It should be here. You didn't miss much!


£500 Challenge Bet” (£746)


I run a fun betleague – 10 friends each with a small bank. This week's bet is the Champion's League final and every single one has bet on there being few goals or a draw tonight. Originally I was going to bet on Unders, but frankly that amount of groupthink has totally put me off – especially at 1.5


So instead I'm going to shamelessly follow Kevin Pullein's suggestion of backing few bookings – he makes a very good case for the bet.


£20 under 4.5 Bookings at 6/5 (or best odds against quote you can get).





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1285 – not accounting for two carried over tennis matches)

(Three third set tie breaks went my way yesterday. I did win one horse race and one dog race but lost another so another day of winners and standing still – which looks the way of this experiment)


Todays bets

  1. Tennis Pannetta beat Cohen-Aloro £120 at 1.2

  2. Tennis Pironkova beat Chevgkova £120 at 1.08

  3. Tennis Tsonga beat Ouahab £120 at 1.13

  4. 5:20 Kelso – Dutch front two £120 at 1.2



Monday, May 19, 2008

Monday 19th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£746)


Sam Thomas – words fail me. What a ridiculous and painful end to the week. I feel like Jonah sometimes.


No bet today.



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1231)

(Our last bet of the week -Sam Thomas – blew our profits for the week. That's two weeks of just breaking even – and that at a 85% strike rate. I remain encouraged though. No change in approach this week)


Todays bets

  1. Tennis Vassallo beat Ouahab £120 at 1.23

  2. Tennis Hernandez beat Dancevic £120 at 1.25

  3. Tennis Davydenko beat Eitzinger £120 at 1.08

  4. Tennis Ancic beat Ginepri £120 at 1.13

  5. Racing 2:40 Muss Dutch Addawaiyta/Aleatrics/Talon and Bourse £120 at 1.3ish





Sunday, May 18, 2008

Saturday 18th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£766)


Much better on the football front – though penalties aren't for the faint hearted and I laid some of my potential profits off! I need to devise an algorithm for insurance/hedging purposes – it's no good hedging the winners (Rochdale) and not the losers (Lang Shining) using just this week as an example.


Nothing much doing today, so I'll steal a barking bet. The racing barking bets are 24/26 since inception so let's hope I haven't jinxed that here!


2:50 Fakenham

Dutch Oumeyade and Secret Glen £20 at 1.25ish




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1301)

(Quite tempted not to play and ensure profit on week, but will stick with it)


Todays bets

  1. 2:50 Fakenham – as above £120 at 1.25

  2. 2:00 Market Rasen – dutch front three in market £120 at 1.4


Saturday, May 17, 2008

Saturday 17th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£717)


The football bets have taken one hell of a beating the last few weeks. Disaster considering they've been carrying the fund all season.


Even so, I'll skip Newbury (Astronomer Royal looks a big price, but no pace in the race at all and anything could happen) for here and stick with the FA Cup final. Portsmouth are a big price to be honest, but that's undoubtedly based on their inability to score, especially without Defoe. That leans me towards Unders as the bet, with finals historically much lower-scoring than normal matches.


Rochdale are still pitching for us today – we bet them to qualify.


FA Cup £20 Under 2.5 goals at 4/6





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1301)

(Another good day yesterday – and shame I didn't make Fat Boy the challenge bet – into profit on the week.)


Todays bets

Can't find any so far. Saturdays look to be the quietest day for these bets, which is interesting should this turn out to be a long-term project – and the initial signs are encouraging.


Friday, May 16, 2008

Friday 16th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£737)


Lang Shining traded at 1.01 yesterday. Any sensible punter will have made money despite being gubbed on the line. Not me obviously!


Two of my Derby ante post vouchers disappeared in smoke as well, but Tartan Bearer did OK, and the 14/1 he drifted to before the off was far too big to ignore, despite already being on at 9s.

York not overly exciting today. I'm a Rahyani fan and could have done without Pricewise shaving a few points off his price this morning. Fat Boy also appeals and could have been bet of the day but Chapple Hyam's form has to be a worry.


So football it is. Southend improved a good deal on my ratings over the last 15 games or so of last season, and Doncaster shouldn't be so short today. I'd have Southend at more like 4/5 with the draw on their side.


Southend £20 at 1.9 +0.5



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1237)

(Good day yesterday – back where we started for the week!)


Todays bets

  1. German Tennis Federer beat Verdasco £120 at 1.14

  2. German Tennis Djokovic beat Montanes £120 at 1.11

  3. German Tennis Nadal beat Moya £120 at 1.10

  4. Newbury 2:20 Dutch Fat Boy/Tajdeef £120 at 1.2



Thursday, May 15, 2008

Thursday 15th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£757)


Well at least we broke the losing run.


York today. Bertoliver could well repeat Chester form and seems fairly priced to do so. Sprint handicaps are less and less my bag though. My derby antepost horses all clash today. Have to say I think Twice Over is short in what looks a pretty competitive event. For the challenge bet you can back Lang Shining at the same price as Twice Over. One has a number of credible opponents, the other just has to handle the ground, with all his rivals either out of form or unsuited by conditions.

I will hang fire (a) in case the course is a road, and (b) in case the layers get their boots on.


York 3:10

Lang Shining £20 win at better than 4/6



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1129)

(Had a loser each day so far this week. Which is absolutely no good for this game)


Todays bets

  1. Italian Tennis Sharapva beat Wozniacki £120 at 1.22

  2. 2:00 Perth Dutch Cardinal Spirit/Carrick Dhu £120 at 1.25

  3. 2:10 York Dutch Promising Lead/Flying Clarets £120 at 1.19

  4. 2:50 Sals Dutch Naughty Thought/Uig £120 at 1.18



Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Weds 14th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£711)


The article in the Racing Post yesterday has got me back on the horse today. Thanks to them for that. York throws up a few chances but is typically competitive. I can see myself playing Tastahil and King Charles in the opener (I priced at 6/4 the two); Dar Re Mi and Lush Lashes in the Musidora (evens the two), and Utmost Respect and Wi Dud in the sprint (4/1 the two). Couldn't recommend any of them as the daily challenge bet though.


So off to the UEFA Cup final where I'll bet Rangers luck finally runs out. I'll probably hedge 0-0, but will keep it simple on here.


Zenit St Petersberg £20 win at 13/10




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1185)

(I ditched one of the dog races yesterday when down to 5, and added a Brighton race. Still lost on day though, so down on week again.)


Todays bets

  1. Hamburg tennis – Federer beat Niemenen £120 at 1.09

  2. Italian tennis – Szavay beat Errani £120 at 1.2

  3. Italian tennis – Azarenka beat Niculescu £120 at 1.11

  4. Italian tennis – Kuznetsova beat Gorvotsova £120 at 1.1

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Tuesday 13th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£711)


10 non winning bets in a row (a couple got returns). I think I'll shut up shop on here for a while and concentrate on Barking Bets. I'll continue with my own fund.






Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1239)



Todays bets

  1. Hamburg tennis – Ferrer Beat Minar £120 at 1.15

  2. 7:10 NA Poquelin £120 at 1.3

  3. 8:50 Peterborough dogs – dutch Tps 1 and 6 £120 at 1.4ish

  4. 9:25 Peterborough dogs – dutch Tps 2 and 3 £120 at 1.4ish

Monday, May 12, 2008

Monday 12th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£751)


Really hit the buffers again. Think I'll go for a long walk with wife in Shropshire sun and contemplate what my new career will be come next April.


Should be back in time to lose some more at Windsor of all places. I've nothing against Metropolitan Man and he ran really well last time but he looks too short for a horse with his winning record, especially at Windsor. We can dutch banknote and likely front runner Dunelight at 5/4 or better – I'd be more like Evens.


6:55 Windsor

Dutch Banknote and Dunelight £20 at 5/4+




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1245)

Did make tiny profit on week in the end. 89% strike rate so far. Will stick to £120 this week.


Todays bets

  1. Hamburg Tennis Canas beat Llodra £120 at 1.2

  2. Hamburg Tennis Tipsarevic beat Beck £120 at 1.22

  3. Hamburg Tennis Murray beat Tursonov £120 at 1.26

  4. Italian Tennis Radwanska beat Amammuradora £120 at 1.24

  5. Italian Tennis Szavay beat Yan £120 at 1.11

  6. Italian Tennis Zvonereva beat Sugiyama £120 at 1.11

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Sunday 11th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£759)


Rochdale gubbed Darlington 1-2 yesterday! That late goal leaves them with a lot to do. I'll count them as a loser for now.


These Premiership prices are enough to make a “value” punter spontaneously combust. I really don't know what to make of it all. If the fund was flying high I'd probably be racing gung ho into 4 or 5 bets, but as the last couple of weeks have been terrible, and especially these sort of football bets, I'm running a bit scared. Never a good sign.


I have my Fulham shirt on, and would normally hedge on them losing. However, my mind keeps on saying to me. “Al Fayed meet 'Arry; 'Arry meet AL Fayed”. Read into that what you will.


Wigan are a remarkable 1.75 getting a two goal start. Reading are also a ridiculous price even against Derby.


But Blackburn seem the silliest the price of all. I'll probably fashion something around the rest but the challenge fund (which is due some winnings from a bet on Chelsea/Man Utd back at the start of the season when I was including long term bets in this fund – since ditched) but will stick with Blackburn.


Blackburn £5 win at 11/4

Blackburn £20 at 1.75 +0.5





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1158)

Had got into profit for the week before a late bet on the Derby Trial bit me on the arse.


Todays bets

  1. 2:00 Uttox – Dutch Haddaf/Backstage/Alflamour £120 at 1.16

  2. 2:30 Uttox – Dutch Spare cash/Fourty Acers £120 at 1.15


Saturday, May 10, 2008

Saturday 10th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£779)


Racing tricky. Classic Punch looks a shade long if you forgive him towards the end of the season and he doesn't get caught up in a speed duel with Tungsten Strike. Campanologist looked a decent horse first time out , and if you fancy a couple of long shots in the big handicap you could do worse than Orchard Supreme and Middlemarch. I guess I'll play them all and go for the fortune on the multiples!


Football takes the money though. Rochdale again I'm afraid! The big prices have gone but 4/5 for them to qualify for the final against a fading Darlington is still fair.


Rochdale to qualify for final £20 at 4/5





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1207)



Todays bets

  1. Rugby Wasps beat Leeds £120 at 1.06

  2. 1:10 Ascot Dutch Lions Sands/Spanish Moon and Classic Punch £120 at 1.52

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Thursday 8th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£799)


I'm off for a jolly in London today so no posting tomorrow.


Maraahel goes for a four timer at Chester today but unlike in previous years, I'll be takig him on today. He gets quirkier with every run and there must be a chance Championship Point takes him on for the lead. Multidimensional is the obvious one, but Stotsfold also has his perfect conditions (small field, fast ground, 10f) and has had a start this time, unlike last year when he was a very close second. I'd price them at 60% dutched and we can get a shade better than 4/5. I may shove a bit more Stotsfold's way at the prices but we'll keep it simple on here.


£20 Multidimensional and Stotsfold dutched at 4/5+.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1086)

Not going well this week, Nadal letting us down yesterday.


Todays bets

  1. Rome Tennis Djokovic beat Andreev £120 at 1.21

  2. German Tennis Dementieva beat Dushevina £120 at 1.13

  3. Goodwood 2:30 Dutch front three £120 at 1.08

  4. Wetherby 6:00 Dutch front two £120 at 1.24

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Tuesday 7th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£819)


A short sharp lesson yesterday and the tennis will stay where it belongs below for the foreseeable future!


The Chester Cup looks like it will be really messy today, with what little pace there is mainly drawn high. If they come over early and slow it down...hard luck stories will abound, and Spencer will do well to be Jamie rather than Frank on the favourite. All mine are uncomplicated, not hopelessly drawn and genuine. Missoula has course form and although has to step up in class, looks slightly overpriced. Double Banded looks very solidly priced ( I had him in at 4s), and Shipmaster is in my stable at the moment after winning last week, and could sneak a place.


Missoula £5ew at 16/1

Shipmaster £1win at 25/1, £4 place at 4/1

Double Banded £5 win at 9/2




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1161)


Todays bets

  1. Rome Tennis nadal beat Ferrero £120 at 1.05

  2. German Tennis Radwanska beat Bachmann £120 at 1.08

  3. German Tennis Kuznetsova beat Castano £120 at 1.06

  4. Chester 2:15 Dutch Shes a Shaw Thing/Doncaster Rovers £120 at 1.21

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Tuesday 6th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£826)


Tennis Mathieu beat Karlovic £10 at 1/3

Tennis Bolelli beat Patience £10 at 1/3

(Not sure I should be duplicating barking bets here - we'll see. At least I can better than betfair odds here.)





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1204)


5 out of 5 yesterday. On here anyway. I added a successful football play on Arsenal ladies and a race at Kempton. Sadly I then had a loser at Warwick and ended up exactly level on the day! A few horse races worth looking at further but just tennis bets so far.


Todays bets

  1. Rome Tennis Mathiew beat Karlovic £120 at 1.30

  2. Rome Tennise Bolelli beat Patience £120 at 1.32

  3. german tennis Azarenko beat Dellacqua £120 at 1.16

  4. German Tennis Dementieva beat Bondarenko £120 at 1.16




Monday, May 05, 2008

Monday 5th March

£500 Challenge Bet” (£826)


No bet today – enjoy the bank holiday.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1204)


Review of Week 1: (Actual bets)

32/36 bets

£3600 out

£4004 In

111% returns

Horses 8/8 (although the change of going and inability to get price saved me once)

In fact only losses incurred on tennis which still returned 100%

Banked £200

New stake £120

A much much better start than I expected though I did dodge a couple of bullets. Interesting. If as I suspect the tennis proves its downfall there are definite football/racing/other applications.


Todays bets

  1. Rome Tennis Canas beat Naso £120 at 1.08

  2. Rome tennis Almagro beat Cipolla £120 at 1.08

  3. German tennis Safina beat Georges £120 at 1.16

  4. German tennis Radwanska beat Keber £120 at 1.16

  5. German tennis Szavay beat Sequera £120 at 1.15


Sunday, May 04, 2008

Sunday 4th May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£832)


Stubbs Art – what a treat – he even looked like the winner for a second (and lost a plate). I have a nice place double running up on him and Savethisdanceforme – which I didn't bother to put up here at the prices! We still have a few bets in running on the 1000 Guineas from yesterday.


Shame about Rochdale. In fact after yesterday's results I'm going to steer clear of the Championship games today and concentrate on Newmarket instead.


2:40 Nmkt Dutch Getaway/Sixties Icon/Galactic Star £10 at 1.4ish (anything over 1.35)

3:55 Nmkt Dutch Zidane/Enticing £5 at 13/8

Sixties Icon/Muthabara/Enticing 3 x £1.25 doubles £1.25 treble





Barking Bets” (my bank £1373)


  1. Nmkt 2:40 Dutch Getaway/Sixties Icon/Galactic Star £100 at 1.38

  2. Tennis Prague Zvonereva bt Azarenko £100 at 1.32

  3. Tennis Rome Monfils bt Patience £100 at 1.22

  4. Tennis Rome Lapentti bt Vasselin £100 at 1.22


Saturday, May 03, 2008

Saturday 3rd April

£500 Challenge Bet” (£809.02)


My antepost guineas books are hopeless. I'm left throwing darts to be honest. I like New Approach but can find plenty of holes in the rest at the front of the market. If he blows out there could be a big upset – hard to find the horse though.


£5 double New Approach and natagora at 10/1+

£2.50 double Ryan Moore's mounts

£1.25 ew Stubbs Art at 200/1+

£1 win Plan at 40/1+

£1 win Dream eater at 100/1+

£1 win Alfaatha at 90/1+

£2.50 win Savethisdancefor me at 12/1

£2.50 win Kitty Matcham at 12/1

£1 fc Natagora bt Savethisdanceforme

£1 fc Natagora bt Kitty Matcham





Barking Bets” (my bank £1247)


  1. Tennis Dulko bt Rezai £100 at 1.43

  2. Tennis Medina Garrigues bt Arn £100 at 1.25

  3. Nmkt 4:35 Dutch Kandahar Run and Ridge Dancer at 1.12

  4. Blackburn bt Derby £100 at 1.28

  5. Rugby Bath bt Saracens £100 at 1.18

Friday, May 02, 2008

Friday 2nd May

£500 Challenge Bet” (£809.02)


Let's go for a football bet tomorrow, as I'm bound to be putting up horses/guineas bets for Saturday. I like a few home teams at much longer odds than my ratings would have them, but the one I've plumped for in the end is Rochdale against Shrewsbury – who are woeful. End of season game I know, but 4/5 looks much bigger than it should be.


£20 win Rochdale at 4/5






Barking Bets” (my bank £1139)


  1. Tennis Dulko beat Cristea £100 at 1.48

  2. Tennis Medina Garrigues beat Savchuk £100 at 1.32

  3. Lingfield 2:40 Dutch Masaalen/Pride of India £100 at 1.30


Thursday, May 01, 2008

Thursday 1st May

Daily Challenge Bet”


No bet today. I have got involved in Mayorla elections – but the price continues to move away from me. Only someone very brave or foolish would be keeping the faith. It does remind me of the Kinnock election though, where the gap between saying something to a pollster and carrying it through in the cold light of the voting booth held sway – surely enough people are going to have a reality check before they get rid of a flawed but competent politician who's done a pretty good job, and replace him with a flawed and incompetent one with only a track record of making a fool of himself.

No bet today.



Review so far:

Fund stands at £810 (disappointing month)

Football 70 bets/42 wins 139% returns

Racing 134 bets/62 wins 109% returns

Overall returns 108% (v disappointing to be below 10%).





Barking Bets”

The tennis bets need refining after yesterday's losses. At least I escaped the racing setback and remain in Ok shape as long as the carried over tennis match goes my way. It's a strange feeling winning so many events but not winning anything overall. The margins are hopelessly tight – especially not being able to take any early out of line bookies odds.


  1. Darts – Taylor beat Manley £100 at 1.15

  2. Tennis – prague – Srebotnik beat Czink £100 at 1.22

  3. Tennis – Fes – Kleybonova beat Radionova £100 at 1.19

  4. Hereford 2:40 – Dutch Oh Crick and City Affair at 1.35