“£500 Challenge Bet” (£824- 6 bets inplay – accounted)
No bet today.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3117)
I played that novice chase at 1.13 – some very nice horses in that – a race to follow.
Folkestone has similar looking early races today – possibilities but not at the current prices.
“Snippet of the day”
“You think it's funny, turning rebellion into money.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£824- 6 bets inplay – accounted)
Thank heavens for Hull's team spirit, if not their defensive solidity! Phil Taylor needs to dig deeper though.
No bet today. I guess those leaves are finally going to get swept up.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3082)
The only possible bet was the Leicester Novice Chase, but the front three take over 90% of the market, so looking very unlikely.
“Snippet of the day”
Just googled a load of old schoolfriends – all of whom seem to have done more with their lives than me! Check out www.chriscoco.com for example. Don't suppose he finds the time for a placepot.
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£818 - 6 bets inplay – accounted)
What to say. Not sure how I ended up with so many bets in this fund yesterday after my midweek decision to pare back.
I can't find a bet at Cheltenham which is a blessed relief.
However my ratings do demand a bet on Hull, which will come as no surprise to anyone. Man City look to have serious internal problems and have been coming unstuck away from home against proper “teams”. Hull's home record is actually not very good, and they do concede goals – a worry given Man City's ability in that area. But I'm compelled to play again. Football has been hurting me badly so far this season. I have to keep looking at the blog spreadsheet overall to reassure myself.
Hull win £3.50 at 2/1+
Draw no Bet £6.50 at 6/5+
Hull +0.5 £15 at 4/6+
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3082)
I was flowing along nicely until greed got the better of me. No obvious bets today yet.
“Snippet of the day”
“Don't hit me. I wear glasses normally.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£872 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Well, at least I won the placepot yesterday, and the pay out leapt admirably on the back of Herecomesthetruth's antics at the last fence. Let's hope my 16 line Scoop 6 is as lucky today!
And my own bet on Chesterfield worked out somewhat better than the simplified version posted on here. And I got Evens on Dix Villex keeping the race yesterday.
So, all in all, a day of pitiful selections was saved by a bit of luck and quick thinking!
First things first. Phil Taylor is back in action. 8/13 is getting close to the bone now – but I reckon we follow him till he loses. He's been about the only profitable angle since the start of the flat season - looking back at daily challenge bets has been a sobering experience.
Secondly Cheltenham:
1:25 I can make a case for Big Fella Thanks and West End Rocker here. The two carrying penalties have it all to do, and Gone to Lunch just looked OK at Exeter and the going looks plenty soft enough for him. Either of the our two could have won the sprint up the straight at Chepstow the other week, and so go unpenalised here. I'd have them taking 60% of the book, so dutching them as close to Evens as we can get looks the way to go. Of course, as we saw again yesterday, chaos is the default setting for Cheltenham novice chases.
2:35 Really I shouldn't be betting here, but if you can't bet in the Mackeson/Murphy/Thomas Pink/PaddyPower you must have lost the love of betting that attracted you to the job in the first place. Bradbury Star was my first equine hero after all. Looking at the shape of the race and the going yesterday, I can see this race being run too quick and a stalker coming through late. That said, the Racing UK re-runs of previous Mackesons showed that most were prominent by the top of the hill. I priced Piraya, Maljimar and Fleet Street up at a collective 3/1, so dutching them at 5/1 and playing the exotics is the way I'm going.
Finally, Ipswich come out as a bet on ratings against Doncaster. We're riding our luck if we play this because by all accounts Doncaster slaughtered Sheff Weds last Saturday for a 1-0 defeat and our profit for the day. I haven't decided whether to play yet. The good news is they kick off late so I can wait for the Cheltenham fog to clear., The bad news is that makes me prey to recency effect on how the day's gone.
Phil Taylor £25 win at 8/13
Big Fella Thanks/West End Rocker £15 dutched at close to Evens
Maljimar/Piraya/Fleet Street £13 dutched at 5/1
£2 in total on combination exactas, and a cheeky trifecta
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3187)
Wetherby 1:45 and Punchestown 1:50 could provide a heady ten minutes.
Arsenal/Chelsea games could throw up in-running opportunities
“Snippet of the day”
“In the final when he won the war
After losing every battle”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£897 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Cheltenham.
I think I'll dabble today – the card looks typically difficult – I'll do a placepot, and try to get rich with a treble on Church Island (along with half the RP staff), Puntal (based on last year's ridiculous run) and Paddleyourowncanoe (if he could possibly try this time, he's ridiculously well handicapped). Ornais and Battlecry both look opposable in the Graduation race, but whether you could actually back the other two runners...
Both Nicholls hotpots look very good, but priced badly with decent opposition here. You'd think they were at Taunton or somewhere.
The Cross Country has a barking bets shape to it for those bold enough.
Football tonight and my ratings throw up Chesterfield to beat Shrewsbury and I'll play even though Shrewsbury are probably my bogey team so far this season. I'm going to build a silly looking perm including asians and draw no bet and a win bet,, I'll keep it simple for the blog.
Chesterfield £25 win at 6/4
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3177)
Newcastle 1:30 worth a look.
“Snippet of the day”
“They say I shot a man named Gray
And took his wife to Italy
She inherited a million bucks
And when she died it came to me.
I can't help it if I'm lucky.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£897 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
My connection to blogger went tits up yesterday and I was unable to post my daily offering until too late, but I've put it up anyway for continuity's sake.
Today I'll waste my time (and money) looking to crack the Tote Ten to Follow. And have an eye on Clonmel where I'll be following Ruby Walsh's fortunes closely though quite how I'm yet to decide.
The prices are typically stingy, especially for horses first time up. Ladbrokes go a stand-out 7/4 Snowy Morning which suggests they know something but I felt obliged to take some anyway. They also go 11/2 Light on the Broom – 14/1 elsewhere. That's as big a differential as I think I've ever seen in early odds!
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3177)
Racing again helpful yesterday. There's no obvious races today though, nor nothing much else sadly.
“Snippet of the day”
“Mange tout, Rodney, mange tout”
(ok, that's enough!)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£897 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
The Graduation Chase at Kempton is interesting but the prices seem about right to me – I'd have liked to have backed both I'msingingtheblues and Briareus but 1.5 looks right. Adding Modicum would make it close to a barking bet for the brave (or stupid).
Otherwise no bet again today. And a review of figures suggest that may become more common with this fund. I was guilty of just turning over money here, and that partly explains the poor progress over the last few months. I also think the barking bets fund itself is partly to blame. Third to blame is poor judgement and lastly a run of baddish luck.
I can see barking bets taking over as the engine room of my betting anyway – inevitably when they get up to around £500. I never thought that would happen when I was the amateur answer to Pricewise, specialising in top class handicaps. Markets are strange animals!
I'll try to be more informative down below from now on, but I'm sure you see why the bets by necessity are mainly last minute.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3047)
Two easy races yesterday. There are possibilities at both Kempton and Bangor so a day in front of RUK beckons.
Kempton 12:30 too many unexposed nice horses – careful.
Kempton 1:05: possible now Henderson's is a non runner.
Kempton 2:50 – see above
Bangor 2:35 possibilities the front two
Bangor 3:10 possible to build something around the front 4
Avoid Southwell.
Celtic are not strictly speaking value, but not unfair prices either and you could do worse.
I was going to play the dog final tonight but am worried about Trap 1 causing an upset, so will skip.
“Snippet of the day”
“This time next year Rodney...”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£897 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
I'd like to be able say I sat out the Wycombe game...
This fund could do with a break I think. No bet today.
Nevada Royale is a horse to watch closely this year and thereafter I think – looked a real galloper at Newbury last year – and hopefully will be trained as a potential National horse of the future. Not sure I want to lump on at short prices in awful ground at dreaded Exeter though. Especially as we've already missed the Evens.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £2897)
Some potential races today.
“Snippet of the day”
(An encore for slipperytoad)
“We've got some half-priced cracked ice
And miles and miles of carpet tiles
Tvs, deep freeze, and David Bowie LPs
Ball games, gold chains, wottsanames, picture frames and leather goods
And at a push some Trevor Francis tracksuits
From a mush in Shepherd's Bush.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£897 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
I'm still considering the bet but I think I'll back Unders in the Wycombe game – one of those tricky away cup ties, in rain and wind, this looks likely to be an attritional affair, especially given Wycombe's scoring/conceding record. I'd have thought 4/5 was about right.
“Snippet of the day”
“Stick a pony in me pocket,
I'll grab a suitcase from the van.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£897 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
A bit of a frustrating day yesterday – one that ended up all square if you include Heather Small's elimination. (I'd rather clean up dog pooh with my bare hands than listen to an hour of Mariah Carey covers, so I missed Laura's demise and am rather pretending it hasn't happened!)
I was going to back Murray/Federer for Shanghai but this end of season malarkey is fraught with injuries, apathy and fatigue. I'll skip.
As for the football, I'll hunker down out of the rain and hope Woy's new forwards can get us a decent three points at home, but if you think I'd put money on it... I'm keener on Villa, but not at the prices. There is the merest hint of juice in opposing Middlesborough though – one for the barking bets maybe. Although I remain unconvinced laying football teams is wise in that fund, it's doing OK so far, so I'll continue until reality strikes.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3182)
Yesterday started badly with an impetuous play at Kelso. The novice chase at Sandown and Liverpool got some of it back. Looks like a losing week though.
“Snippet of the day”
“Waiting for a miracle,
But nothing ever happens.”
(Still, £2m up for grabs next Saturday!)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£886 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Football.
Only one match came out playable on the ratings and that's Sheffield Wednesday to beat Doncaster. I'm a bit perturbed that the leader of the Bookmaker naps table in the Racing Post has napped Doncaster, but am happy to be able to get longer than betfair odds this morning.
Racing
Difficult day. As Jonah says the Racing Post have done Island Flyer's price no good at all. The front three in the betting look rock solid to me. These early season chases aren't really ones to take a stance like that, but there's no other race that appeals as a betting medium.
You could argue that both Tom George's horses are only being denied favouritism by Nicholls' reputation and record at Wincanton. I'll do a double on them, and throw in Sir Harry Ormesher for the treble as he looks like he may be underestimated, and I wasn't blown away personally with Breedsbreeze's last run. The rest of today's fund I'll throw away on the Scoop6.
Perpetual kindly recommended Katchit for the Order of Merit and I had a nibble last night at 10s. I think he's got it all to do today to be honest, and 5/4 was way too short – however the drift is beginning to make him backable!
Strictly Come Dancing
Since I backed her at 5/4 to be eliminated, Heather Small has drifted to 13/8 and bigger. You can count on me for sound advice... This appears to be due to a feeling that John has outstayed his welcome, and that the tango is actually going to suit her. The latter may be truer than the former, but I'll play again, this time though dutching with Jodie Kidd to cover ourselves.
Sheff Weds beat Doncaster £27.5 at 5/6
0-0 £2.50 at 11/1
Dutch Island Flyer/Leading Attraction/Trigger The Light £20 at 1.5
Kilcrea Asla and Island Flyer £4 double
Kilcrea Asla/Island Flyer/Sir Harry Ormesher £1 treble
Dutch Heather Small and Jodie Kidd to be eliminated £5 at Evens
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3357)
Sandown 1:20 and 1:55 possibles; otherwise I'll have to wait until the football inrunning.
“Snippet of the day”
“I said rip it up and rip it up and rip it up and rip it up and rip it up and start again.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£886 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Good day yesterday. On the other hand I woke up suddenly realising that I was now officially older than the next President of the United States. Intimations of mortality and reflections on a life properly wasted ensued!
I swear you used to be able to rely on Friday's to produce some decent racing cards. Today's reads like an average Monday.
According to Pete's race is the only one that interests me, but I'm going to hold fire for now – the going is a worry, especially for possible non runners, and the price isn't quite right either.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3282)
Even more worried about Mad Vera Zvonareva for my tennis bet, with Jankovic “injured” yesterday and with little to play for. Tempted to get out but this fund isn't really one for hedging. Looks another blank day otherwise.
“Snippet of the day”
“Well, now time's passed and now it seems
Everybody's having them dreams;
Everybody sees themselves walkin' around with no one else.
Half of the people can be part right all of the time,
Some of the people can be all right part of the time,
But all of the people can't be all right all of the time.
I think Abraham Lincoln said that.
"I'll let you be in my dream if I can be in yours"
I said that.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£865 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Yesterday's sweep-up bets not exactly started off well. Fund looking very poor right now.
Snooker
Hendry plays Davis tonight. Wouldn't like to pick the winner of these league games, but Steve Davis is long past compiling big breaks. 50 is a big score for him these days. Hendry should probably be shorter to post the highest score tonight.
Racing
Fitness in these handicap chases is proving a puzzle. And has put me off playing a few against the field. Briery Fox is hardly a prolific winner, and supposedly prefers small fields, but he travelled like the winner for a long way on his two seconds last season, where he came late in big fields. 20/80 suits in a race with little depth.
Hendry highest break £15 at 4/7
Briery Fox £3 win and £12 place at best odds.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3282)
A couple of good races yesterday. Bit worried about Mad Vera Zvonareva for my tennis bet. Looks a blank day today.
“Snippet of the day”
“The foreigners had the best cattle but the worst cowboys”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£895 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
There's a few bits and bobs I've been looking at this week and today looks a good opportunity to sweep them up into one day's betting.
Strictly Come Dancing. This week's eviction looks pretty clear-cut to me. John will come bottom with the judges and top with the voters and avoid the bottom two. Heather will be in the bottom two and this time is only left opposing better dancers. She goes!
X Factor. I can't be bothered to tie up a load of money on this pile of pooh. However, for interest, Diana and Laura look the only credible contenders to me and we can dutch them at 4/5ish.
Another day's racing at Chepstow, another day wondering how many winners Nicholls/Walsh will have. The odds are a joke of course, so think of this as an 'action' bet that allows me to delay sweeping up the autumn leaves from my driveway!
I've followed Arthurs Girl (Kempton 7:50) on and off and this looks a chance to come late for a place at least, with a useful weight allowance over the better horses.
I'm still waiting for David Howell to fully get his game back, and this is a good field. However, he did win here a few years ago and 80/1 seems worth it.
Heather Small next elimination £5 at 5/4
Diana and Laura win X Factor £10 dutched at 4/5
Nicholls/Walsh today 6x75p doubles and 50p acc
Arthurs Girl £2.50ew at 12/1 guaranteed
Howell £2.50ew at 80/1
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3162)
I bet a football match inrunning last night, and it was such a terrible bet I'm too embarrassed to say what it was! Painful though.
A few races have small potential today, unlikely to amount to much though.
“Snippet of the day”
Shouldn't betfair void McKeown's race at Southwell yesterday? They make a song and dance about their transparency, but in all other respects act as little more than a grifter's merry-go-round.
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£895 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
Bugger – done on the line in the Melbourne Cup, and chose the wrong bet for the Birmingham game. Not what was required.
I looked at the Exeter chase today, but it looks like the last couple – unfit animals, Twist Magic better on quicker and may struggle to get home off topweight; Natal looking badly handicapped; Howle Hill without blinkers; others over the wrong trip or out of their depth. Mahogany Blaze the obvious one to reap the benefits but at a terrible looking price. I think we can afford to miss that.
Champions League football also not for me tonight.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3472)
Had a race win yesterday. Tennis tournament today, and possibly the nov chase at Exeter.
White Group WTA Championship
Dutch Ivanovic and Jankovic £340 at 1.35ish
“Snippet of the day”
“String is a very important thing
Rope is thicker, but string is quicker.”
I have a first edition of Silly Verse for Kids that is well thumbed and well treasured!
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£925 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
A better day yesterday – and although I was absent I hope some of you thought to do Phil Taylor.
Football today.
Birmingham have been doing Ok for us, despite the lack of goals. Coventry have been grabbing a goal away from home, so this should tight and close as all Birmingham's games have been. I'll play the scores that seem most likely rather than Birmingham, unders, or Coventry +1 which were all considered.
Racing:
Melbourne Cup. It's been costly waiting for a European winner, but O'Brien and Cumani go with big, big chances this time, and surely they've sussed it out by now, especially with no Makybe Diva. 6/4 dutched seems fair. I'm saved from having to include old friend Yellowstone.
Birmingham dutch scores £15 at 4/6ish
0-0; 1-0; 2-1; 1-1; 2-0
Mad Rush, Bauer and Septimus £15 dutched at 6/4ish
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3377)
No bet yesterday, but banked £100 for the week. Not had a chance to look at the racing today – dog had a fight with barbed wire fence yesterday and vets took priority!
“Snippet of the day”
“We thought we could sit forever in fun
But our chances really were a million to one.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£902 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
Liverpool – now that was just a silly game. And that was an awful October for this fund. November has to improve if I'm to stave off gainful employment. I'll drop stakes down slightly for single bets, but keep split bets at current level.
Today's football sees Bolton take on Man City, who remain over-rated by the markets. My main problem is fear of goals, which is identical to my feeling about the Middlesborough game against Man City midweek. I didn't play that game in the end and, despite the usual nagging cliche of weddings and funerals, I'll put my betting suit on today.
It's also the New York marathon. Paula looked in great shape last weekend and I think she'll get back on top here. Geta Wami ran Boston just a few weeks ago and should be happy with her money, and whilst this has a nice shape for a barking bet I think I'll include it up here. The one to be careful of is Goucher.
Bolton £15 +0.5 at 1.7+
Paula Radcliffe £12.50 at 6/5
Kara Goucher £2.50 at 10/1
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3477)
12:40 Wetherby went tits up yesterday, so I couldn't have started the day worse. However, the rest was fine, including adding Everton (and 0-0) in-running, to end up in profit. Be nice to find a small bet to finish week on £3500.
“Snippet of the day”
Here's a couple 'Arry quotes from the investigation into Portsmouth manager market. Within the same paragraph – roughly as I remember it.
“We've got a computer upstairs, but I don't even know how to turn it on....”
“Thanks to everyone for all the e-mails of support.”
When he retires he should train racehorses.
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£939 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Racing:
End of flat – start of jumps – you've been warned.
I'll keep it quiet.
2:05 Ascot.
A lot of these will be having preps, or simply be unfit. Similar to Roan Chase which made a fool of me so be careful. I think I'll play though as I like Air Force One, and a couple of the outsiders look too long, so we can build a reasonable portfolio.
2:20 Wetherby
We can dutch the front two here. If Theatre Belle is a non runner, this would move ideally to the barking bets fund.
I'll also play the scoop 6 and the probably easier to win jackpot, and doubles but won't bore you with the details.
Air Force One £8 at 11/4+
Out The Black £4 at 16/1+
Ontheother hand £1 win at 25/1+
£1 ew double County Zen and Out The Black
Dutch Blaeberrry and My Petra £15 at 4/6
Football.
Scunthorpe look just about undervalued but this might be the last time. Their main striker may be injured which has to be a worry, but I'm playing. The media have gone mad for 'Arry – the chiselling little crook certainly breeds confidence – but they were lucky to get anything from Arsenal and frankly Liverpool should be odds on here in a midfield mis-match.
Scunthorpe £15 win at 4/6
Liverpool £12.50 at 6/5
£2.50 6fold – Liverpool/Charlton/Ipswich/Leicester/Scunthorpe/Bolton
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3202)
12:40 Wetherby; and Ascot 2:40 and 3:10 possibles.
Ladbrokes going 1.46 Man Utd/Chelsea is also tempting, but I'll probably skip.
“Snippet of the day”
“Thinks of Edward, still at college
Sends him letters which he doesn't acknowledge”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£939 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
No bet today – ratings lean towards Middlesborough but Man City are scoring too freely to play that one.
Off for a few days now – back Saturday.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3202)
“Snippet of the day”
“It's not the despair I can't stand; it's the hope.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£939 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
At the risk of playing just the one tune I'm again siding with Wycombe tonight. Their lack of goals make them an attractive team for bookies to go after, especially if they can attract multiples. We can cover 0-0 and still get value according to my ratings.
Wycombe £28 win at 8/13
0-0 £2 at 14/1ish
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3357)
Small win yesterday on Young Mick's race. Three maidens early on today – 1:30; 1:40 and 1:50 could provide for an interesting half an hour. Later on Bubbly Totti looks worth a go at 1/3ish for the Greyhound St Leger.
“Snippet of the day”
Continuing the theme of favourite rhymes, a gem of a poem (TS Eliot eat your heart out).
“A bit of talcum
Is always walcum”
