If betting tonight, and you haven't had your accounts closed, there's two good deals - Bet365 will match your pre-match bet up to £50 with a free in-running bet, and Paddy Power will refund correct score etc bets if Barcelona win in 90 minutes.
No obvious value, typically. However, I've always thought penalties in finals are wrongly-priced, though I don't have the raw data to prove it. Saturday Gamblers don't need proof of course, just a dubious statistic and 3 of the last 8 champions league finals have gone to penalties - that'll do for me.
The sprint at Haydock has a clear favourite, who has legitimate credentials. I prefer to take the wider view that sprinters (with the possible exception of Delegator) aren't group 1 animals at all, and so have very little by way of class edge over each other. So we have to go against the fave here. The Cheka, who never wins, especially when I'm backing, and High Standing (already been thrashed twice by the fave) are the illogical looking choices, but prices dictated. If the fave is a non runner we're in trouble...you may want to keep powder dry for a bit yet, unless like me you're going out for the day.
So £50 on Champions Leageue to go to penalties at 11/2ish
and £50 dutched The Cheka and High Standing at 7/2ish
I'll leave you to make up your own get rich quick treble.
Be lucky...
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
FA Cup and Lockinge
Blogger wasn't working for me end of this week - you didn't miss much!
I'm not the only one who thinks Man City are too short to win the cup this afternoon, judging by the market this morning. Plenty of people dabbling on Stoke. To be honest I'd want the draw on my side as well, but certainly don't think City should be odds-on.
Lockinge - Canford Cliffs needs to be fit to beat Dick Turpin, and the prices don't look right on that basis. I like Twice Over's price too, but do think he's a 10f specialist.
Earlier in the day Akmal might get a canny front-running ride from Hills here, and if so 11/2 is huge.
At Newmarket Chiberta King could be tailed off last, but won this race last year and races off a lower mark, 16/1 worth a win only bet.
And how about a few quid of Azerbaijan to win Eurovision at 9/1, and the Racing Post put up Slovenia at 100/1 - seems rude not to.
So something like:
Lay Man City for £50 at under evens.
Dick Turpin £30 at 7/2
Aqmal £20 at 11/2
Chiberta King £20 at 16/1
£10 treble the horses
Azerbaijan £15 at 9/1
Slovenia £5 at 100/1
Be lucky...
I'm not the only one who thinks Man City are too short to win the cup this afternoon, judging by the market this morning. Plenty of people dabbling on Stoke. To be honest I'd want the draw on my side as well, but certainly don't think City should be odds-on.
Lockinge - Canford Cliffs needs to be fit to beat Dick Turpin, and the prices don't look right on that basis. I like Twice Over's price too, but do think he's a 10f specialist.
Earlier in the day Akmal might get a canny front-running ride from Hills here, and if so 11/2 is huge.
At Newmarket Chiberta King could be tailed off last, but won this race last year and races off a lower mark, 16/1 worth a win only bet.
And how about a few quid of Azerbaijan to win Eurovision at 9/1, and the Racing Post put up Slovenia at 100/1 - seems rude not to.
So something like:
Lay Man City for £50 at under evens.
Dick Turpin £30 at 7/2
Aqmal £20 at 11/2
Chiberta King £20 at 16/1
£10 treble the horses
Azerbaijan £15 at 9/1
Slovenia £5 at 100/1
Be lucky...
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
York - Musidora Tuesday
I'm around for York, so will play half stakes.
The 1:30 handicap is all about Taqleed and the two unexposed horses, and the prices reflect that. I can't find an edge I'm happy with at that end of the market, so I'll take speculation to its limits and go for a Fahey horse that probably isn't even trying today judging by the jockey booking. Still , it is 50/1 - Ingleby Spirit.
And having got a taste for 50/1 shots I'll wonder to myself what Peter Chapple-Hyam's apparent no-hoper's doing in a weak looking Musidora, and there goes a few more quid on Whey Sauce.
The sprint has a proper group horse in it - Godolphin may have ruined him, but he looks the one to land the life-changing treble - Delegator.
£5ew Ingleby Spirit 50/1
£5ew Whey Sauce 50/1
£5ew double
£2.50ew treble with Delegator for the £50,000
and if need be £10 Delegator.
Be lucky...(you'll need to be!)
The 1:30 handicap is all about Taqleed and the two unexposed horses, and the prices reflect that. I can't find an edge I'm happy with at that end of the market, so I'll take speculation to its limits and go for a Fahey horse that probably isn't even trying today judging by the jockey booking. Still , it is 50/1 - Ingleby Spirit.
And having got a taste for 50/1 shots I'll wonder to myself what Peter Chapple-Hyam's apparent no-hoper's doing in a weak looking Musidora, and there goes a few more quid on Whey Sauce.
The sprint has a proper group horse in it - Godolphin may have ruined him, but he looks the one to land the life-changing treble - Delegator.
£5ew Ingleby Spirit 50/1
£5ew Whey Sauce 50/1
£5ew double
£2.50ew treble with Delegator for the £50,000
and if need be £10 Delegator.
Be lucky...(you'll need to be!)
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Victoria Cup and Lingfield Derby Trial
I was away last week and so missed the dodgems at Chester, so am no doubt richer now than I would have been!
Victoria Cup: God knows what the ground will end up like, so caution multiplied on a track where I'm already suspicious about the straight course. Of course take that attitude to flat racing and a pro just wouldn't bet at all these days - but us Saturday gamblers want the action, and that leads me to two darts. Excellent Guest looks to have solid credentials and I'd have him vying for favouritism with the front two to be honest. Shamandar gets a tentative nod also, Haggas running him in this after such along break, suggesting he's got high hopes.
The Lingfield Derby Trial has been a good race for me in the past and the complete outsider has to be of interest on price terms, even though I know nothing about him, but as the only Derby entrant and given a positive mention from Gerald Delamere this morning, I'm happy to look a fool at 11/1ish and make him the bet of the day.
I'm not sure the usual £100 weekly bet is sensible on such a wet day, but something like:
Marhaba Malyoon £40 at 11/1
Excellent Guest £25 at 16/1
Shamandar £10 at 25/1
£2.50 comb exacta the above two
Drill Sergeant £10 Swinton Hurdle 25/1 (for the hell of it)
£10 treble Marhaba/Excellent Guest/Drill Sergeant returns £50000ish...
Be lucky...
Victoria Cup: God knows what the ground will end up like, so caution multiplied on a track where I'm already suspicious about the straight course. Of course take that attitude to flat racing and a pro just wouldn't bet at all these days - but us Saturday gamblers want the action, and that leads me to two darts. Excellent Guest looks to have solid credentials and I'd have him vying for favouritism with the front two to be honest. Shamandar gets a tentative nod also, Haggas running him in this after such along break, suggesting he's got high hopes.
The Lingfield Derby Trial has been a good race for me in the past and the complete outsider has to be of interest on price terms, even though I know nothing about him, but as the only Derby entrant and given a positive mention from Gerald Delamere this morning, I'm happy to look a fool at 11/1ish and make him the bet of the day.
I'm not sure the usual £100 weekly bet is sensible on such a wet day, but something like:
Marhaba Malyoon £40 at 11/1
Excellent Guest £25 at 16/1
Shamandar £10 at 25/1
£2.50 comb exacta the above two
Drill Sergeant £10 Swinton Hurdle 25/1 (for the hell of it)
£10 treble Marhaba/Excellent Guest/Drill Sergeant returns £50000ish...
Be lucky...
Sunday, May 01, 2011
1000 Guineas
I don't suppose we'll see a performance like Frankel's yesterday, but perhaps we'll get closer to backing a winner!
My problem this morning is that on my tissue Misty For Me comes out as value. The problem is I never get O'Brien's horses right and the clue is usually in the market - when their mob is backing their horses I don't see them as value and they win, and when they don't they drift to big looking prices and they lose. You've been warned.
Of the rest, Moonlight Cloud looks fairly priced and may drift to a big looking price if locals avoid her, but I won't be around to take advantage. Make a Dance is the ridiculous one I like to find at a sexy price, but the price isn't at all what I'd hoped.
All in all, a bit confusing. Still, having had a good day yesterday, I'll play again, something like:
Misty For Me £25 at 11/1
Make a Dance £20 at 16/1
£2.50rev fc
Be lucky...
My problem this morning is that on my tissue Misty For Me comes out as value. The problem is I never get O'Brien's horses right and the clue is usually in the market - when their mob is backing their horses I don't see them as value and they win, and when they don't they drift to big looking prices and they lose. You've been warned.
Of the rest, Moonlight Cloud looks fairly priced and may drift to a big looking price if locals avoid her, but I won't be around to take advantage. Make a Dance is the ridiculous one I like to find at a sexy price, but the price isn't at all what I'd hoped.
All in all, a bit confusing. Still, having had a good day yesterday, I'll play again, something like:
Misty For Me £25 at 11/1
Make a Dance £20 at 16/1
£2.50rev fc
Be lucky...
Saturday, April 30, 2011
2000 Guineas
There's no pundits looking to get after Frankel this morning (Nick Mordin aside) and it's easy to see why. Still, at that price in a field of relatively unexposed 3 year olds no self-respecting Saturday Gambler can sit back and do nothing. Sure, we're going to look stupid most the time, but it's a mighty sweet slice of pie when the sure thing does fail.
The problem is what to oppose him with. I took Casamento each way at 16s midweek - the place element looked big. 12/1 is looking closer to his price, so I'll pass over him this morning. Which leaves Fury as the horse likeliest to raise his game. He's been surprisingly tight in the market this week. You can get money back for second at boylesports at 16/1, or take the 20/1 win only betfair.
Obviously you have to do the forecast to a few quid.
For the 'get rich quick' trebles, build some perms around those two, plus Sandor in the 2:00, Johnny Mudball and Tangerine Trees in the Palace House, and how about another dent in Mourinho's home record with Real Zaragoza at 10/1+. Chuck in the Scoop 6 and join me at the pay window later!
Be lucky...
The problem is what to oppose him with. I took Casamento each way at 16s midweek - the place element looked big. 12/1 is looking closer to his price, so I'll pass over him this morning. Which leaves Fury as the horse likeliest to raise his game. He's been surprisingly tight in the market this week. You can get money back for second at boylesports at 16/1, or take the 20/1 win only betfair.
Obviously you have to do the forecast to a few quid.
For the 'get rich quick' trebles, build some perms around those two, plus Sandor in the 2:00, Johnny Mudball and Tangerine Trees in the Palace House, and how about another dent in Mourinho's home record with Real Zaragoza at 10/1+. Chuck in the Scoop 6 and join me at the pay window later!
Be lucky...
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Whitbread
No time this morning. I was hoping est End Rocker or Iconoclast would line up. Instead I've had a tickle on two rank outsiders who need to find some form from somewhere but are priced fairly to do so.
Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!
Be lucky...
Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!
Be lucky...
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Scottish National
Which has been a sometime lucky race for me over the years. I'm not really connected to it this year I have to say, but I did make a note about Ouzbeck months ago "leave out of calculations until back for go at a good ground Scottish National". Emma Lavelle is one of my favourite "go-to" trainers in handicaps and I'll hope the sun shines enough at 16/1, where I had him closer to 10s....
Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1
Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1
Saturday, April 09, 2011
Grand National
Nothing to add to the post below.
Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!
Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.
Be lucky...
Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!
Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.
Be lucky...
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
US Masters and Grand National
Saturday Gamblers have to have a go at both of these events don't they!
Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.
by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.
My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.
US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?
So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1
West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.
Be Lucky...
Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.
by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.
My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.
US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?
So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1
West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.
Be Lucky...
Saturday, April 02, 2011
The Lincoln
No self-respecting professional without inside information would dream of a bet in the Lincoln. Luckily, us Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints!
Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.
The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.
Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.
So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta
£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1
£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom
£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000
Be lucky...
Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.
The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.
Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.
So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta
£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1
£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom
£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000
Be lucky...
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Saturday 26th March
The racing is not at all my cup of tea today, with just the one race at Newbury of interest. And it's a poor one. Burren Legend won it last year and has good course form. I'm not sure this race will fall in his lap, and given he's been pulled up three times already this season, he's not each way material. But I'll play at the price, and throw a tenner at veteran Briery Fox - who I see Corals have ducked.
Another Saturday, and another chance to oppose an England team. You'll never go broke laying England teams playing away at under 1/2, regardless of all the experts in the world telling you this is a cakewalk against a terrible Welsh side. They seem to be overlooking the fact England are pretty terrible also. As we are already on Montenegro to win the group this is a doubling of our eggs in that basket to be honest, and an early England goal, followed by turning over to see Burren Legend pulled up, is a more likely scenario, but that's Saturday gambling.
So, something like:
£30 Burren Legend at 14/1+
£10 Briery Fox at 14/1+
back Wales and lay England so that your outcomes are something like:
Wales +£180
England -£50
Draw +90
£10 treble Semi-Colon/Burren Legend/Wales returns c£10000
Be lucky...
Another Saturday, and another chance to oppose an England team. You'll never go broke laying England teams playing away at under 1/2, regardless of all the experts in the world telling you this is a cakewalk against a terrible Welsh side. They seem to be overlooking the fact England are pretty terrible also. As we are already on Montenegro to win the group this is a doubling of our eggs in that basket to be honest, and an early England goal, followed by turning over to see Burren Legend pulled up, is a more likely scenario, but that's Saturday gambling.
So, something like:
£30 Burren Legend at 14/1+
£10 Briery Fox at 14/1+
back Wales and lay England so that your outcomes are something like:
Wales +£180
England -£50
Draw +90
£10 treble Semi-Colon/Burren Legend/Wales returns c£10000
Be lucky...
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Midlands National
Well, that was a tough week. The bad news is that I lost the entire bank I'd allocated to the festival. The good news is that still leaves me with a good profit for the last couple of months. That's a big compliment to this type of staking, which you won't find in any gambling textbook. It certainly worked out better than any level staking system, and if I'd been using my old "part Kelly" approach I'd have been completely banjaxed. So, that's one advantage to good old part-time Saturday Gambling, and it could easily be incorporated into a full-time gambler's approach. Food for thought for the future.
In the meantime, let's get back on the horse at Uttoxeter today. Not my favourite race but Companero reappears at a a big price again. Now, obviously he all but died on his feet three weeks ago, loaning us our Cheltenham funds, so why would we want to go to the funeral today, especially on firmer ground. Well, because he's 25/1+ again. I'm not that interested in each way this time, given he is likely to be pulled up, and will supplement the bet with a couple of other bets now the favourite has been Pricewised down to 4/1. Tricky Trickster and Nicto De Beauchene look credible darts at a price.
So, something like
£25 win Companero 25/1+ (got 30s last night)
£15 win Tricky Trickster 14/1
£10 win Nicto de Beauchene 20/1
Ireland look backable at 7/4 to beat England in the rugby - they'll relish this one last battle. Usual England pricing reasons. May even get 2s closer to kick-off!
Be lucky...
In the meantime, let's get back on the horse at Uttoxeter today. Not my favourite race but Companero reappears at a a big price again. Now, obviously he all but died on his feet three weeks ago, loaning us our Cheltenham funds, so why would we want to go to the funeral today, especially on firmer ground. Well, because he's 25/1+ again. I'm not that interested in each way this time, given he is likely to be pulled up, and will supplement the bet with a couple of other bets now the favourite has been Pricewised down to 4/1. Tricky Trickster and Nicto De Beauchene look credible darts at a price.
So, something like
£25 win Companero 25/1+ (got 30s last night)
£15 win Tricky Trickster 14/1
£10 win Nicto de Beauchene 20/1
Ireland look backable at 7/4 to beat England in the rugby - they'll relish this one last battle. Usual England pricing reasons. May even get 2s closer to kick-off!
Be lucky...
Friday, March 18, 2011
Cheltenham - Friday
Been a bad one so far. The three bets of the day have: fallen when in last, pulled up when in last, and run like a drunkard who's just missed the last bus home.
I'm lucky today in that a lot of my bets are paid for by the doubles I have going on from Al Ferof - who must have won in a previous year so long ago it seems!
Triumph: I have a free double on Zarkander. Prefer Unaccompanied this morning so will go in again.
County: Should probably keep Alarazi onside after his bloodless win last weekend, but am looking further afield. Particularly like Soldatino for this - he loves the hill, and have a long-standing habit of backing James Fanshawe runners here so Spring Jim at 50/1 to cheer me up.
Bartlett: Have a free bet on Court in Motion, and will stick with that.
Gold Cup: Judgement day for Weird Al. And it would have to be weird to be honest. Still, if you're all on at 40/1 each way I hope we get a better run for our money this time. I have a free bet on Midnight Chase, though it's hard to think he's good enough, and at the prices this morning I'd have to say Imperial Commander looks a touch of value. His price could be down to knowledge that he's not right (much like how Hills and Lads went 3/1 early on Time for Rupert). It's possible though he's just not a public horse. Not many people backed him last year - just us! - and you'd imagine more tenners and scores going on Denman and Kauto Star for old time's sake.
Grand Annual: I have a free bet on Pigeon Island at 33/1 to repeat last year's little bit of joy, and I also like Oh Crick to roll back the years.
My new bets:
£25 win Unaccompanied
£15 ew Soldatino
£10 ew Spring Jim
Some doubles on the ones mentioned, and if need be singles on Imperial Commander and Oh Crick.
Be lucky...
I'm lucky today in that a lot of my bets are paid for by the doubles I have going on from Al Ferof - who must have won in a previous year so long ago it seems!
Triumph: I have a free double on Zarkander. Prefer Unaccompanied this morning so will go in again.
County: Should probably keep Alarazi onside after his bloodless win last weekend, but am looking further afield. Particularly like Soldatino for this - he loves the hill, and have a long-standing habit of backing James Fanshawe runners here so Spring Jim at 50/1 to cheer me up.
Bartlett: Have a free bet on Court in Motion, and will stick with that.
Gold Cup: Judgement day for Weird Al. And it would have to be weird to be honest. Still, if you're all on at 40/1 each way I hope we get a better run for our money this time. I have a free bet on Midnight Chase, though it's hard to think he's good enough, and at the prices this morning I'd have to say Imperial Commander looks a touch of value. His price could be down to knowledge that he's not right (much like how Hills and Lads went 3/1 early on Time for Rupert). It's possible though he's just not a public horse. Not many people backed him last year - just us! - and you'd imagine more tenners and scores going on Denman and Kauto Star for old time's sake.
Grand Annual: I have a free bet on Pigeon Island at 33/1 to repeat last year's little bit of joy, and I also like Oh Crick to roll back the years.
My new bets:
£25 win Unaccompanied
£15 ew Soldatino
£10 ew Spring Jim
Some doubles on the ones mentioned, and if need be singles on Imperial Commander and Oh Crick.
Be lucky...
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Cheltenham - Thursday
Tough day yesterday. Beshabar, Rock On Ruby and Kumbeshwar were all kickings. When I was a pro obviously I watched all the key Irish races, but that study has been sadly lacking this year, and it's proving expensive. At least the staking isn't hurting!
Jewson: Bet of the day for me - Robinson Collonges was beating Wishfull Thinking giving weight, when he overjumped at Wincanton. Jumping is a worry but with Ruby to hand I think he should be much closer in price to the fave this morning.
Pertemps: Hope they keep hold of him a bit more than last year but the ground is perfect for Barwell Bridge to run another big race.
Ryanair: Impossible - doubts about the four main challengers, and indeed the rest of the field. I have a free bet on Kalahari King, so that'll do me for now, not that I like it much.
World Hurdle: Big Buck's at Evens is a mighty fine price for the big hitters. I can afford to leave it be.
Plate: The two who stand out for me are both pretty short - Quartz de Thai and Beautiful Sound - watching brief for now.
Fulke Walwyn: Mostly Bob was fancied for the RP chase before the rains came, and fell nice and early, so this could be much more likely. Also like Alderley Rover.
Something like;
£50 Robinson Collonges 7/1
£15ew Barwell Bridge 25/1
£15ew Mostly Bob 16/1
£10ew Alderley Rover 20/1
and make up some life-changing doubles/trebles to suit yourself.
Be lucky...
Jewson: Bet of the day for me - Robinson Collonges was beating Wishfull Thinking giving weight, when he overjumped at Wincanton. Jumping is a worry but with Ruby to hand I think he should be much closer in price to the fave this morning.
Pertemps: Hope they keep hold of him a bit more than last year but the ground is perfect for Barwell Bridge to run another big race.
Ryanair: Impossible - doubts about the four main challengers, and indeed the rest of the field. I have a free bet on Kalahari King, so that'll do me for now, not that I like it much.
World Hurdle: Big Buck's at Evens is a mighty fine price for the big hitters. I can afford to leave it be.
Plate: The two who stand out for me are both pretty short - Quartz de Thai and Beautiful Sound - watching brief for now.
Fulke Walwyn: Mostly Bob was fancied for the RP chase before the rains came, and fell nice and early, so this could be much more likely. Also like Alderley Rover.
Something like;
£50 Robinson Collonges 7/1
£15ew Barwell Bridge 25/1
£15ew Mostly Bob 16/1
£10ew Alderley Rover 20/1
and make up some life-changing doubles/trebles to suit yourself.
Be lucky...
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Cheltenham - Wednesday
Onwards.
I'm leaning towards horses with proven good/firm form after yesterday...
NH Chase - bunch of plodders with amateur pilots is usually a recipe for pandemonium. My darts land on Beshaber and Major Malarkey.
Neptune - Guessing the Irish are decent, but don't know which one, which leaves me with Tornado Bob at a big price.
RSA - my favourite race. Time For Rupert looks a shade of value. The Al Ferof win yesterday kicked off a load of free £30 doubles, one of which is the plodder The Giant Bolster at 25/1, which will do for me. I'll also back Wayward Prince.
Queen Mum - God help me with this one, but I'm going with Woolcombe Folly, who anyone with an ounce of sense can see is hopelessly overrated, but I'll go with my eyes, and in the hope Master Minded doesn't let himself down on the ground and Big Zeb doesn't jump as well as last year.
I'll play them all in some way, but hope the doubles can kick us into life:
10 x £5 doubles and a £5 life-changing acca
Beshaber 8/1
Tornado Bob 11/1
Time For Rupert 5/2
Woolcombe Folly 8/1
For Non Stop 7/1
Bet of the day - The Giant Bolster 20/1 each way.
Be lucky...
I'm leaning towards horses with proven good/firm form after yesterday...
NH Chase - bunch of plodders with amateur pilots is usually a recipe for pandemonium. My darts land on Beshaber and Major Malarkey.
Neptune - Guessing the Irish are decent, but don't know which one, which leaves me with Tornado Bob at a big price.
RSA - my favourite race. Time For Rupert looks a shade of value. The Al Ferof win yesterday kicked off a load of free £30 doubles, one of which is the plodder The Giant Bolster at 25/1, which will do for me. I'll also back Wayward Prince.
Queen Mum - God help me with this one, but I'm going with Woolcombe Folly, who anyone with an ounce of sense can see is hopelessly overrated, but I'll go with my eyes, and in the hope Master Minded doesn't let himself down on the ground and Big Zeb doesn't jump as well as last year.
I'll play them all in some way, but hope the doubles can kick us into life:
10 x £5 doubles and a £5 life-changing acca
Beshaber 8/1
Tornado Bob 11/1
Time For Rupert 5/2
Woolcombe Folly 8/1
For Non Stop 7/1
Bet of the day - The Giant Bolster 20/1 each way.
Be lucky...
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Cheltenham - Tuesday
A good thing about being a smaller staking gambler is that the bookies let you play and so we can take advantage of the great offers they've lined up.
Supreme - Cue Card is fairly priced. He'd certainly be shorter if trained by one of the bigger stables. The Paddy Power concession (money back if he wins) looks the way to go, and I've already done Al Ferof, Gibb River and Marsh Warbler against him.
Arkle - Boylesports's concession on the Channel 4 races of money back if 2nd is also a good one - and in fairly uncompetitive races as this appears, has appeal. I prefer Medermit to Finian's Rainbow, but he seems to struggle up the hill in the big races. Leaving Ghizao as the bet of the day.
Champion - Wide open. I do like Menorah a lot, but not at the price. I'm more drawn to Mille Chief (if acts on course) and Khyber Kim (if on a going day) at the prices.
Maljimar is an obvious bet in the X Country, so obvious everyone's tipped it this morning - probably go off favourite.
The rest is just for playing, can see Chief Dan George putting up a good defence of his title each way.
Let's say a bank of £200 for the day - putting our hard-earned profits at risk! Something like:
Ghizao £50 at 4/1 (money back if 2nd)
Gibb River 20/1
Ghizao 4/1
Chief Dan George 25/1
Mille Chief 14/1
Maljimar 6/1
10 x £3 doubles
Then Ghizao/Maljimar bankers with
Gibb River/Marsh Warbler/Chief Dan George/Mille Chief/Khyber Kim 5 x £4 trebles
and 4 x 50p get rich accas.
The other hundred to be spread around the later races, if the doubles aren't up and running.
Be lucky...
Supreme - Cue Card is fairly priced. He'd certainly be shorter if trained by one of the bigger stables. The Paddy Power concession (money back if he wins) looks the way to go, and I've already done Al Ferof, Gibb River and Marsh Warbler against him.
Arkle - Boylesports's concession on the Channel 4 races of money back if 2nd is also a good one - and in fairly uncompetitive races as this appears, has appeal. I prefer Medermit to Finian's Rainbow, but he seems to struggle up the hill in the big races. Leaving Ghizao as the bet of the day.
Champion - Wide open. I do like Menorah a lot, but not at the price. I'm more drawn to Mille Chief (if acts on course) and Khyber Kim (if on a going day) at the prices.
Maljimar is an obvious bet in the X Country, so obvious everyone's tipped it this morning - probably go off favourite.
The rest is just for playing, can see Chief Dan George putting up a good defence of his title each way.
Let's say a bank of £200 for the day - putting our hard-earned profits at risk! Something like:
Ghizao £50 at 4/1 (money back if 2nd)
Gibb River 20/1
Ghizao 4/1
Chief Dan George 25/1
Mille Chief 14/1
Maljimar 6/1
10 x £3 doubles
Then Ghizao/Maljimar bankers with
Gibb River/Marsh Warbler/Chief Dan George/Mille Chief/Khyber Kim 5 x £4 trebles
and 4 x 50p get rich accas.
The other hundred to be spread around the later races, if the doubles aren't up and running.
Be lucky...
Monday, March 14, 2011
Cheltenham - Monday
I'll post all week. See if we can continue our amazing run of the last few weeks. At least I can afford a terrible week!
Firstly, Arsenal. I can't help thinking they are a big price at 2/1 to win the league. They have an easier run-in, and Man Utd are heavily involved on three fronts still (and a Man City semi-final isn't something they'll be allowed to soft-pedal). Of course you have to forgive Arsenal all their obvious failings, but 2/1+ seems an overreaction to a the horrible 8 days they've just had.
For Cheltenham, I've done a few vouchers of doubles trying to make myself rich with little effort. As usual I will no doubt have to offer these up in sacrifice to the gods of Cleeve Hill once the Champion hurdle is done and dusted on Tuesday.
I'll add a couple here.
Firstly, an each way double of The Giant Bolster and Weird Al.
Secondly, I think you should do an "Oh Bugger" voucher, of horses you're probably not going to focus on this year, but you have in the past, just in case they come back to haunt you. One horse each day for me - Maljimar, Somersby, Kalahari King and Imperial Commander.
So, something like.
Arsenal £50 Premiership at 2/1
£10 ew The Giant Bolster 16/1 and Weird Al 25/1
The four horses you're going to be most pissed off if they win, unbacked...
6 x £4 doubles and £6 fourfold
Be lucky...
Firstly, Arsenal. I can't help thinking they are a big price at 2/1 to win the league. They have an easier run-in, and Man Utd are heavily involved on three fronts still (and a Man City semi-final isn't something they'll be allowed to soft-pedal). Of course you have to forgive Arsenal all their obvious failings, but 2/1+ seems an overreaction to a the horrible 8 days they've just had.
For Cheltenham, I've done a few vouchers of doubles trying to make myself rich with little effort. As usual I will no doubt have to offer these up in sacrifice to the gods of Cleeve Hill once the Champion hurdle is done and dusted on Tuesday.
I'll add a couple here.
Firstly, an each way double of The Giant Bolster and Weird Al.
Secondly, I think you should do an "Oh Bugger" voucher, of horses you're probably not going to focus on this year, but you have in the past, just in case they come back to haunt you. One horse each day for me - Maljimar, Somersby, Kalahari King and Imperial Commander.
So, something like.
Arsenal £50 Premiership at 2/1
£10 ew The Giant Bolster 16/1 and Weird Al 25/1
The four horses you're going to be most pissed off if they win, unbacked...
6 x £4 doubles and £6 fourfold
Be lucky...
Friday, March 11, 2011
Imperial Cup Sandown
Off to Crufts tomorrow. The racing is well missable with all of next week to look forward to, and no reason to go wasting money ahead of the big event.
The Imperial Cup is not a race I've ever had much success in, but given the profits of the last few weeks I felt obliged to go for another double-figure each way screamer, and my dart landed on Alarazi. The other credible challengers seemed priced on their trainers' records in this race as much as form, and 14/1 seemed a touch of value. That seems to have collapsed to 10/1 tonight - maybe Pricewise is afoot - and I haven't actually priced the race up so I can't say if 10/1 represents value. Up to you.
No get rich trebles today, but I'll be posting every day next week, so plenty of time for that. In the meantime, if you're quick, snap up the remaining 40/1 about Weird Al winning the Gold Cup. Regulars will know my feelings about this horse, and how disappointed I was after the Hennessey, but I still think he's up there with Long Run, Diamond Harry and Burton Port, and if it's time for the old greats to bow out, well it's worth a dream at that price.
So something like:
£25 ew Alarazi at 14/1 for me, below 10/1 I'd go win only.
£25 ew Weird Al, Gold Cup, 40/1 (33/1 ok).
Be lucky.
The Imperial Cup is not a race I've ever had much success in, but given the profits of the last few weeks I felt obliged to go for another double-figure each way screamer, and my dart landed on Alarazi. The other credible challengers seemed priced on their trainers' records in this race as much as form, and 14/1 seemed a touch of value. That seems to have collapsed to 10/1 tonight - maybe Pricewise is afoot - and I haven't actually priced the race up so I can't say if 10/1 represents value. Up to you.
No get rich trebles today, but I'll be posting every day next week, so plenty of time for that. In the meantime, if you're quick, snap up the remaining 40/1 about Weird Al winning the Gold Cup. Regulars will know my feelings about this horse, and how disappointed I was after the Hennessey, but I still think he's up there with Long Run, Diamond Harry and Burton Port, and if it's time for the old greats to bow out, well it's worth a dream at that price.
So something like:
£25 ew Alarazi at 14/1 for me, below 10/1 I'd go win only.
£25 ew Weird Al, Gold Cup, 40/1 (33/1 ok).
Be lucky.
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