A new start - part 2

So, here I am in sunny Shropshire. Thanks for all the kind words.

Time for a new approach to the blog. But first a final rundown of the blog to this point, and a review of the 2006/7 jumps season.

Overall - all points bet on the blog since inception returns 101%. Which aint gonna make you rich, but at least I haven't bankrupted anyone!

The football bets for this season have returned 106% which is more like it.

Sadly, the racing hasn't fared so well - stuck at 89% - something that can be explained by the review below.


Jumps season 2006/7
Despite a terrible January and February this turned out to be a pretty decent season.

Novice chases in particular were a source of profit - returning 128%. I think I watched pretty much every single decent novice chase this year and had a comprehensive profile of most horses.

Handicap hurdles, on the other hand were terrible - only 83% returns - and I started to turn my back on the more competitive handicaps accordingly.

Ante post bets continued to be very profitable (despite long losing runs) - returning 134%. It's fair to say the 400/1 on Ebaziyan had a major effect! I don't advise ante post bets on the blog, which looks a shame now!

And my "all weather experiment" with Mr Toad proved surprisingly successful - at 112% returns, although to be fair Stoneacre Lad and Orchard Supreme accounted for virtually all of that! Still, it's something I'll continue with for next season. Again, these bets weren't on here as we used theracingforum.com as our experimental lab.

Most importantly were two very nice big-odds winning trebles. The first, repeating a Wincanton treble from the previous season, I landed a big payday when Petitjean, Parsons Legacy and Crow Wood obliged. Later I repeated this with L'Antartique, Taranis and Inglie Drever at Cheltenham.

The first treble came when I was doing the daily tissue for escorialracing.com If those bets had been accounted for on here, then the racing side of things would be nicely in profit. That said, I didn't actually advise the treble, although anyone familiar with my approach will know that I always play a modest 1pt on accumulators on my most solid bets.

The three horses in my second treble were all highlighted as bets here, but again no treble advised.

Overall the horse fund experienced the usual over the year - long slow periods of standing still or declining, punctuated by the step-jumps of the big wins.

All of this I hope explains why I'm a bit frustrated by the blog. So, I've decided to change it slightly. And here's how.

I started off my racing fund all those years ago with £500. I bet very conservatively and have never looked back. I recently suggested £500 as a fair size starting bank with a view to some fun and potential long-term growth, and without too much despair should the bank be busted.

It occurred to me on my break I could aim for something similar here. At the start of the year I was thinking about a fund that "pressed up" on what I considered good bets in all my other funds, but the terrors of January led me to abandon it.

I think I'll reincarnate it as the £500 challenge. (I will set up a fund myself to do this for real - though proportionally larger!) So, recommended bets will be found on here, with real-sized staking. We'll see how we get on.

My normal approach is to to to turn over the fund ten times in a season, make 10% profit and so double my bank. I don't know that this challenge can realistically expect that - since it will be based on a more aggressive staking system than I usually use, though probably on selections at the shorter price range. The aggressive staking will put the fund at far more risk of going bankrupt than I normally allow (you've been warned), but the more refined approach should in theory lead to a higher strike rate. That said, you can see from the breakdown of the racing season that it isn't selectivity that is the key to my profit - the scatter-gun seems to be more successful. So , it will be an interesting experiment for me and hopefully a bit of fun. Feel free to join in.

I will still put up tissues for main racing, and advices, but without points etc - to save me monitoring fictional profits. I'll continue to update you on the overall performance of my own funds.