I had a cracking weekend in Dublin for my fortieth birthday that included a very hungover trip to Fairyhouse for the Irish National. That's as close as I've come to the winner though!
Fairyhouse 3:55
Kings Advocate 10/1
Dix Villex 12/1
Patsy Hall 16/1
All in the Stars 16/1
Juveigneur 20/1
Distant Thunder 20/1
Whyso Mayo 20/1
Cloudy Lane 20/1
Well Tutored 20/1
Nine de Sivola 20/1
Cane Brake 33/1
Butlers Cabin 33/1
Gazzas Girl 33/1
Mac Three 33/1
As you can see my prices are all over the place compared to the bookies. That's often the case in wide open handicaps where a difference of one or two per cent, plus the overround can make the differences look big. It's illusory though. The difference between 16/1 and 66/1 is roughly the same as that between Evens and 5/4. The only difference is that the 5/4 shot is much more likely to win than the 66/1 one. This is a concept some 'value' students struggle with.
Anyway, I'll play my front four - I've obviously found something to make me price them so, albeit simply being Ruby riding, or that they are one-time occupants of my virtual stable.
Kings Advocate 2pts win at 11/1
Dix Villex 2pts win at 20/1
Patsy Hall 2pts win at 33/1
All in the Stars 2pts ew at 40/1
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