Hereford the place for the novice chase today.
Missis Potts should go well off bottom-weight; Overstrand showed a glimmer of life last time and should be better suited to going back right handed here; Robin de Sherwood is weak this morning but Nicholls has his usual top record at the track. All of which leaves Battlecry with a lot to do. He's giving weight all round and each drop of rain diminishes his chances. He was the only horse to give Hobbs Hill a race last time, and regulars know how highly I regard that one. Even so, I can't have him at better than 4/1 on my tissue. Rather than back Missis Potts first time out, I'll take the more cautious option of laying Battlecry. Greed is nudging me towards a place lay but for challenge purposes let's tread softly.
£500 Challenge
Lay Battlecry to lose £20 at 3/1
I've been looking at the evening placepots and am convinced there's a real opportunity here. The single evening AW meeting Weds, Thurs and Friday are attracting pools over 100K. As the tracks are deserted this must be betting shop punters – doing small interest perms or 64 line x 10p type perms. I understand the mentality of these punters and don't find it hard to see how we can overcome the 27% deductions in winning when they lose. Even the meetings with no runners (like Wolverhampton yesterday and tonight) are potentially playable given the tendency of betting shop placepotters to load the first and second faves in 5,6,7 runner races. I intend to play for the duration of the all weather season as my new research project.
Old mucker Slipperytoad also has an idea about the chaotic nature of some of these races, and we may be able to get some synergy going from our two approaches. I'll let you know how we get on, and draw up some rules based on research, but in the meantime it's definitely worth checking out..
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