Thursday 31st January

Damn, chose the wrong match for the challenge yesteday. Still, I hope some of you took on Liverpool again and the small loss on Everton is OK.

Some interesting choices today. A couple of races at Wincanton worth looking at:

3:10 Wincanton

Fleet Street 9/4

Predateur 9/4

Pur De Sivola 4/1

Gentle John 8/1

The pace of this race looks critical. There are three potential front runners and on rain-softened ground that could play into Predateur's hands. If not Pur de Sivola looks a nice price – he ran out of gas over 2m5f here, and whilst 2m may not be far enough, rain and pace could make it just about perfect to make most of the weight he gets from the favourites. The 6/1 has been snaffled up. 11/2 and even 5/1 perfectly fair. You may want to manage this bet in-running though, and not be afraid to sell it should they go off like idiots (think Mahogany Blaze).

4:10 Wincanton

Pedros Brief 7/2

Fundamentalist 4/1

Kelrev 7/1

Cossack Dancer 9/1

Supreme Prince 9/1

Tango Royal 9/1

What a terrific idea for a race. Shame there actually looks like there's a progressive horse in there! Fundamentalist looks short to me, particularly if the rains have come. Winning one of those graduation chases doesn't mean his jumping is suddenly cured. Cossack Dancer will need a soft lead and Kelrev has previously struggled when rated 133. Supreme Prince has no form to shout about but is on his lowest ever rating. Tango Royal is back on his last winning rating, runs well fresh, and usually pops up when least expected by everyone bar the stable. Both are 16/1 and, given this is a race framed to be forgiving to these sort of horses, both are worth backing, whilst keeping Pedros Bob onside.

In the African Nations cup we have another of those conspiracy matches. (Angola v Tunisia). You'd have thought this would be another no-brainer challenge bet. However, I really can see this why this one could be a carve up. Two evenly matched teams who can guarantee going through if they help each other, but who are vulnerable if they don't. At the prices I'll have to lay the draw, and will look to get out if a goal is scored. Given that tactic, I'll swerve it as far as the challenge is concerned.

So what are we left with for the challenge? Tiger Woods has just shot 65 in Dubai. Ridiculous form. Stenson can still lay down a challenge this morning with his back 9 to come. Beforehand I thought it could well come down to a simple match between the two golfers who did so well for us last week, and that already seems the case. Frankly 1.5 Tiger is perfectly fair, and if Stenson does get close today you may even get better than that.

£500 Challenge

Tiger £20 win Dubai Classic at 1.5 or better.