Howell still playing like a raccoon in handcuffs – he needs a 67 or something tomorrow to gatecrash the top 10. Unlikely.
I was looking at the Snooker champs yesterday, trying to find a way in. I read an interesting article (blog) asserting that the top 4 players were starting to draw away from the field. I was interested in the price for the top 4 but the price has gone sadly. During my research I couldn't help but notice that Murphy looked to have the best actual stats (50s, 100s etc), and he seems to have been ignored a bit in the betting. Could stoutism be at work?! Anyway I'll build a modest portfolio around him, primarily to make the final.
My football ratings throw up two possible bets today, neither of which I like enough to put up as the challenge bet, but are Sheff Utd to beat Hull at 5/4 and Rotherham to beat Degenham at 11/10.
Which leaves the racing, and therefore the Scottish National. My ante post book includes a non runner, and Opera Mundi in anticipation of soft ground. It is beefed up a bit by Noir et Vert at 11/1.
That being so I only need to add a couple this morning to complete the list. The challenge bet may as well be made up of those. Miko De Beauchene is drifting to a very backable price. He's the rock solid, genuine, tough horse in the field, who I'd have as clear favourite and yet in the face of support for others looks like he'll go off at 8/1. The place part of that is particularly attractive and I wouldn't put anyone off a place only bet or a 20/80. I think if I'd come to the race fresh this morning that may have been my play.
Of the rest, the ground looks to have gone for Halcon Generlardais and Opera Mundi; Old Benny may well have left his race at Cheltenham (the stats suggest so); Patsy Hall didn't look a stayer at the festival and most of the rest are too far out of the handicap to threaten. (Noir et Vert now looks the right price). One who could show is Kilbeggan Blade who has decent form and may be being overlooked for running in the x-country race last time (didn't stop Silver Birch winning a National).
£500 Challenge
£7.50 ew Miko De Beauchene as close to 8/1 as possible
£2.50 ew Kilbeggan Blade at 20/1
Should have stuck with the football (as ever this year).
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