It's exactly a year since I started the challenge on here. I appear to have failed to double the fund, as we are stuck on £850. We came within spitting distance of £1000 not long ago so have had a wee slump since then.
On the whole I don't think that's so bad, coinciding as it has with my worst year's gambling in ten years. (It's also a year since I moved to Shropshire, not sure how much that has contributed). All in all it's more evidence that well considered bets staked consistently will be profitable. And also probably why I found it easier as a self-disciplined semi-pro topping up his earnings, than I have as a full-time gambler looking to drastically increase turnover.
The 'challenge' helped me enormously in my attempt to navigate my way out of the crisis, and has become a key part of my process going forward. I'm not sure I would have moved in this direction without the blog, nor without reading “Fooled By Randomness”. So that's made it worthwhile.
I am somewhat bored with the blog though, so I think I'll set up a new challenge for the coming year. I have an idea that could be fun, or could fail quickly. Will set up soon. I'm not sure if I'll persevere with the challenge – I may just record my equivalent fund bets up here without explanation, for anyone following – I know some people are keen on the football bets.
So, today's, possibly last, Challenge bet. By my ratings Everton should be shorter today. As we know the Cahill effect challenges those ratings, but I can't help feel the betting is going too far in Villa's favour today – overreacting to their last few games. I have Villa to come 5th so an element of hedge won't harm. I think Everton will be looking to keep it as tight as possible, and Villa may not be able to play the counter attacking style that suits them. If Everton do win, I'd have thought they'd only score one. We can dutch that with the Villa score most likely to upset the unders bet.
£500 Challenge
£20 Under 2.5 goals at 1.75+
£3 Everton win 1-0 at 15/2
£2 Villa win 2-1 at 11.5/1
well what happened there. I was sat pretty at 80 minutes!
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