“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1043– 3 bets inplay – accounted)
Michael Campbell was one shot ahead of Dyson with one to play and finished three behind!
At least the racing was better. And Jankovic needs one more win. I wonder if my fave Radwanska can put the cat amongst the pigeons in the other half of the draw by taking out Venus today?
No bets today. I was looking at the Champions League groups and outrights, but not keen on having a load more money tied up for ages. I'll think about it.
Review of progress of daily challenge bet:
Since inception - (“bets” means a daily bet – so yesterday's 3 racing bets actually counts as 1 bet):
Football bets: 53/95 120% returns
Racing bets:86/178 120% returns
All bets: 159/314 109% returns
(Clearly golf and other sports are dragging the fund down!).
“Barking Bets” (Banked £875/Current bank £2441)
Possible plays:
2:20 Hamilton; 3:10 and 3:40 Lingfield and 4:30 Kempton
“Snippet of the day”
There's always a lyric or line from a film or poetry or something running round my head. Always has been. (Not that they're always accurate!) Let's spice up this somewhat dry page with a daily dose of whatever's rattling around in there. I'll leave it uncredited as I know Saturday Gambler for one would like to guess – no google!
“Like a bird on a wire,
Like a drunk in a midnight choir
I have tried in my way
To be free.”
Hi Toots,could I ask you what factor decides whether you play or not in the races you have mentioned is it the prices or something else.
ReplyDeleteBilly
Good question!
ReplyDeleteIn my mind they are potentially uncompetitive races and I'm looking to the market and anything else to confirm that.
So 3:10 Lingfield is a probably match between Nawamees and Whats Up Doc, at dutchable prices. The potential fly is My Mirasol so I'm looking to see if that can safely be opposed. At the moment my feeling is to play the race.
3:40 Lingfield has unraced runners from big stables so again I'm looking for market clues - but my inclination is to miss this one.
Kempton 4:30 looked to be between the three market leaders but there's money for the unraced Holamo. That's putting me off at the moment. I'll be interested how the market pans out late.
Hamilton 2:20 The market is over 90% front three so unlikely to yield a bet though I'm not keen on Digit. Question of whether I want to risk opposing him. On the whole with these "surefire" bets I don't like opposing horses in single figures.
Then I like to see the preliminaries - any paddock clues and expert thoughts and look at late weight of money on betfair before finally playing.
Today my guess is I'll play the first at Lingfield and then be tempted into one other late on.
Not very clear I know, and to be honest I'm learning as I go along. I've done 152 racing bets of this sort in the barking bets fund, and prior to that would never have dreamt of betting in a maiden or claimer!
Thanks for the insight Toots!
ReplyDeleteI avoid claimers, maiden, and novice races like a plague, unless there is good info on prior form available.
For the 4:30 Kempton I'm leaning towards High Heeled at the moment, but will make up mind later. Also looked at the 5:20 (as not that many runners), with the two favorites not having proven form (although both winners last run) I'm looking to oppose one of them.
Just out of curiousity, are you using a program to track/compile market and money movements on Betfair? Currently I'm just doing it manually by looking at shift in odds over time as well as the graph/matched history on BF, but obviously looking for a more automatic way.
No, manually Boon. Actual weight of money a big indicator - eg 3:40 Lingfield Imaam not just getting most the money but no other horse being backed at all (so far!).
ReplyDeleteI'll probably sit that one out anyway.
On the whole for these bets I prefer more than one runner on my side - "match bet" type races are best.
I'm probably done for the day - good luck!
Do you like betting on the Cricket at all? What other sports aside from Golf and Football do you like to have a flutter on?
ReplyDeleteSpike, there have been a few cricket bets on here - mainly laying the draw in selected test matches.
ReplyDeleteAlso tennis - tournament bets similar to the US Open one in play at the moment and barking bets on matches.
Golf - mainly majors and occasional match bets
Reality TV - Used to play these a lot when the markets were new and immature - much harder now and the downside is having to watch too much rubbish.
Darts - though mainly only Phil Taylor!
Rugby - mainly international rugby union, which will be a useful addition to barking bets this season.
Occasional political bets, NFL, Snooker...
So, as long as I think I've found an angle I'll plainly play on anything!
If you looked through random past postings you'd stumble on all sorts I'm sure.
Football and racing would make up 75% of bets though.
Ahh nice. =)
ReplyDelete