2009 Challenge Fund (£8845– £450 in-play accounted)
This month's stake - £100
No idea what La Toyah's doing but she's been overtaken in the market by Ulrik-ka-ka-ka so it can't be good!
Was gong to play Huntingdon but will have to waste my life on something else instead!
Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £2340 – 1 bet in play unaccounted)
This week's stake - £300.
Novice Chase – Sedgefield. Twat. I even tried to green out on Overlady in-running but had “insufficient funds in account” which in itself is an indication of how badly I'm doing!
Worrying times folks. Spoke to Anne last night about going back to part-time gambler come April if it doesn't turn around. What else I'll do god only knows – maybe write a new gambling book on where it all went wrong!
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Hang in there your due a change of fortune any time now.Two months worth would be just right ,retire after the festival....Jonah.
ReplyDeleteAs Jonah says - hang in there as it can all change in a moment
ReplyDeletePerpetual
Yeah man maybe you should take some time off to look at how your betting has changed over the years and come back with a fresh eye for some value
ReplyDeletelove your blog, long time reader first time poster <3
I echo all the above sentiments- you are too good to go back to work! There must be some easy tennis bets at the moment?
ReplyDeleteJohn
I’d advise going back to the future.
ReplyDeleteWhen you were the tissue complier on Ron’s web site you were all about your opinion based on your prices plus your patented e/w doubles thrown in!
You were bloody good, that talent does not disappear overnight!
However, over time, it seems you’ve drifted away from your “its all about the price” approach. If your finances allow I’d advise you to take some time off, re-read your records in that infamous A4 ring binder and come back armed with modified tactics which take account of the change in the betting market (per Alan Potts, Against The Crowd)
I’ve been badgering you to write a book for a while. The exercise in bringing it up to date is another good idea if only to relearn your old methods.
Ive just spotted your response re my post last week ! Now that would be some bet to get up! Positive thinking..... I like it!!!!Jonah
ReplyDeleteThanks guys, I think the main reason for writing the blog is that this is a lonely job (the way I do it anyway), and doubly lonely when you're losing.
ReplyDeleteEspecially as I don't really mix with other gamblers. You lot help me a lot - even tough love like Toad's! Thanks.
Toad, your post requires a separate response.
ReplyDeleteI agree, and am trying to backtrack a bit. However, the market really has changed. Dave Nevison has written an interesting article in today's RP worth reading, in which he says making profit from tissue-based betting is much harder than the golden age of a few years ago. That's what I've found too.
However he did by accident make me suddenly realise where there should still be value, which has pepped me up a bit!
You and I are both disciples or Cramer. As discussed in both his books when everyone is using the same method of handicapping races as sure as eggs is eggs there will be no different between the tissues of the handicapper and crowd and therefore no edge.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the crowd have caught up with Dave’s (and previous Alan Potts) methods and time to mow another lawn?
Absolutely toad. There's a very good thread on betfair commenting on dave nevison's piece.
ReplyDeleteQuite a few good old fashioned professionals lamenting the days when they just had to beat the odds compilers, not the big boys on betfair or the wisdom of the collective betfair crowd. I guess I belong with them in finding betfair a bad thing!
I've read that one syndicate are responsible for over 10% of all liquidity on betfair horse racing - a firm of full-time form analysts/odds compilers and putters-on; and what value these guys don't steal is hoovered by the bots and followed closely by the big bookies with their hedging; info and spoofers.
I moved to the front end of the market because I'm fairly sure that's where what remains of old fashioned value resides. The barking bets (whilst this week may not be the best time to exemplar them) indicate that, as does the returns on blindly backing faves the last couple of years.
There is a new value in the old heritage handicaps which seems based on the 'unfathomable' - ie horses that our style form based study delete from the reckoning. No idea how you harness that though!
My final thought of the day though is that thinking the affect of betfair through, made me suddenly think - placepots/exactas/trifectas - these are still weak markets are they not - albeit with huge overrounds?