Saturday 30th October

Well, here we go. I've had an old-fashioned morning with the top races and a tissue marker pen!

The Charlie Hall looks fairly-priced. I'd love to back Knockara Beau but have sworn off as long as that sack of spuds is riding him. The Tother One looks like the one with least negatives, but I'll pass.

2:40 Ascot
A few front runners. I priced From Dawn to Dusk as a 6/1 shot, which is obviously wrong (a rusty morning!), but I guess that's where my money's going.

4:50 Ascot
Sizing Africa seems very weak this morning - drifting to a nice price, but that's a phrase that's damned near bankrupted me over the last couple of years, so caution advised. Panjo Bere has a ton on off topweight, but does like the track, and that counts for a lot here. I think I'll see how the market shapes up closer to the off.

2:35 Newmarket
Not a rational bet, but I've been disappointed by The Cheka all season, but Fallon back in the place means I'll give him one more small chance.

I'm not sure about staking for this new Saturday fun - I think I'll work round £100 a day rather than a fund and see where I am around Xmas time.

From Dawn to Dusk £40 at 10/1
The Cheka £20 at 9/1
£10 treble From Dawn to Dusk/The Cheka/Panjo Bere (returns £18500)
and save £30 for that Ascot race.

And finally, here's a value bet.
Montengro to win Group G at 9/1. Top of group, not even conceded a goal, and drew with us away without their best players. Hype, liabilities and patriotism are keeping this price wrong - I'd go closer to 4/1. And at worst it's a good insurance bet against England cocking up again...


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