Stan James seem to have abandoned best odds guaranteed in favour of standing top price on those they fancy drifting - which is pretty much all of my picks today, so that's where I've gone.
1:15 Sandown
If you saw Pepe Simo jump first time out you have to take him on at odds-on, whatever the word from the yard is....this is Sandown after all.
2:20 Sandown
Songe has a favourite's chance. Bible Lord catches the eye - this is the time to get him, as it was last year, and he's fairly handicapped. Looking at Corals prices they agree. I put him in at 4s. Will play at 5s.
2:40 Kelso
Kalahari King should be able to give the weight to Noble Alan, but the market rather says it all. He was one of my favourite horses the other year but has let himself down since. I think I'll sit it out, though I expect I'll be suckered in if he gets any longer!
2:45 Wincanton
Wishful Thinking could be a good horse this year, and is probably fairly priced if you forgive his fall. It's the relative prices of the other two I don't get. Tara Royal was favourite ahead of Robinson Collonges previously and one race shouldn't lead to such a disparity between the two. Tara Royal at 7s looks a sporting bet.
3:20 Wincanton
Wide open contest. I respect the Nicholls runners without liking them much, certainly not at the prices. Ellerslie George was impressive in this last year, and though he's run like a dog since, is back on the right rating in first time blinkers. I'd hoped for longer than 14/1 but it's worth a tickle. And I'll chuck in Irish Raptor as well, 22/1 seems generous.
Something like:
£20 win Fahrisee 3/1
£20 win Bible Lord 5/1
£20 win Tara Royal 7/1
£15 win Ellerslie George 14/1
£10 win Irish Raptor 22/1
£9 fourfold with Ellerslie George returns 27000
£6 fourfold with Irish Raptor returns 28000
Be lucky...
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Just as well I gave up gambling properly!
ReplyDeleteEllerslie George at least made a race of it. Robinsons Collonges looked a good chasing recruit today I thought.