Break

It's the end of my flat season (and not a very good one at that!), and I'm taking a break for a bit to re-group for the jumps.

Back in a week.

Steve McLaren

Interesting markets around our qualification for Euro 2008.

Ladbrokes go a stand-out 1/2 that we still qualify. That seems about right.

Corals go 8/1 McLaren to leave his post in 2007.

Putting the two together is interesting. We play all our remaining qualifiers in 2007. It's all but unthinkable that McLaren would survive us not qualifying. Which makes that 8/1 look mighty big. Seems to me you can back them both and enjoy a free(ish) bet on McLaren leaving his post, or arb to suit yourself.

Of course, if we don't qualify and for some reason he kept his post we're in trouble. On the other hand, if we just qualify, or are struggling to qualify it's entirely possible he could be sacked or resign, and both parts of the bet could be landed. I see the latter as far more likely than the former.


MacLaren to leave his post in 2008 4pts at 8/1
England to qualify for 2008 8pts at 1/2

Strictly Come Dancing

A decent little earner last year, and slightly more enjoyable than the pantomime that is X Factor.

We've only seen the blokes and to be honest they were a sorry looking bunch. Unless the girls prove even worse they should have the upperhand. I know Darren Gough won last year but the supporting role of the bloke is much less inspiring than a female twirling around, and I'd have thought the women would win something like 2 out of every 3 showings of this.

A portfolio (aka backing half the field!):

Emma Bunton 2.5pts win at 4/1
Carole Smillie 2pts win at 16/1
Mark Ramprakash 2.5pts win at 6/1
Jan Ravens 1pt win at 75/1
Claire King 1pt win at 30/1
Matt Dawson 1pt win at 20/1



And Mica Paris looks vulnerable, not least to the reality TV curse, and could be on her way Saturday.

Mica Paris 3pts elimination at 100/30

Weekend Football - 14 and 16 Oct

The Preston price looks way out. Keane mania still rampant presumably.


Preston 5pts beat Sunderland at 11/8

Doncaster (away) 5pts beat Cheltenham at 12/5

Torquay 5pts beat Accrington at 6/5

Monday
Fulham 5pts beat Charlton at 11/10 (not that you should ever tip your own team)!

Mid-week Euro 2008

I just have to oppose England here. I'd have Croatia much shorter, but will save on 0-0.


Croatia 4pts at 9/4
No goalscorer 1pt at 13/2

Weekend football - Friday 6th/ Saturday 7th Oct

Hope you're not expecting any international bets!


Doncaster 5pts beat Oldham at 11/8

Mansfield 5pts beat Notts Co at 6/4



Not sure about the latter, as I've just backed Notts Co at 16/1 to win the league (along with Yeovil at 28/1 to win league one). Both look to be improving rapidly. These leagues are hopeless and last year proved how easy it is to get promoted on modest improvement.

Dunhill Golf

Not exactly original:


Howell 1pt ew at 20/1
Stenson 1pt ew at 20/1

Summary of profit/loss - October 2006

Here's the usual breakdown of progress since start of blog.


Football
Out: 1068pts
In: 1130pts
% returns: 105%


Football matches - this season
Out: 266pts
In: 324pts
% returns: 122%


Golf
Out: 326 pts
In: 237pts
%returns: 72%


Racing
Out: 56pts
In: 76pts
%returns 135%


Others:
Out: 66pts
In: 156 pts
% returns: 237%


Overall
Out: 1518pts
In: 1600pts
% returns: 105%


(Remember racing tips can be found at www.escorialracing.co.uk. It's been a tough season, but returns still running at 103%.)

Weekend Football 30th Sept

A fairly interesting spread of bets this week. I'm keen on Bolton, as usual.


Bolton 5pts to beat Liverpool at 3/1

Wolves (away) 5 pts to beat Cardiff at 100/30

Bradford 5pts to beat Tranmere at 11/8

Crewe 5pts to beat Carlisle at 5/4


also Charlton 1pt to beat Arsenal at 13/2 and 4pts on Asian handicaps at +1 at around 1.9 or better.




"Near bets" this week - (these are losing badly) - all away:
Sheff Weds to beat Sunderland
Wycombe to beat Accrington
Macclesfield to beat Hereford

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe

Here's the tissue for the big race. It's a real shame the big ones have scared off all the medium-sized fishes.

Shirocco 5/2
Deep Impact 7/2
Hurricane Run 5/1
Rail Link 7/1
Price 9/1
Sixties Icon 9/1

It looks likely there isn't even going to be the dead 8. How disappointing. Fabre on the front page of the Racing Post is bewailing the lack of pace in the race but I'd have thought that would actually be against Deep Impact more than his three. Shirocco looks the least complicated and I've been a fan all season. I'm happy to get the last of the 3s. I have Rail Link on-side at 20s although I did ditch half of it after this trial. Sixties Icon looks a touch big at 20s (assuming he runs!) so we'll finish off the portfolio with him.

Shirocco 4pts win at 3/1
Sixties Icon 2pts win at 20/1 (betfair)

WGC Golf

(No football bets midweek, though we will keep an eye on "near bets" Bury and Millwall)


Golf.

Tiger Woods 3pts win at 5/1
Trevor Immelman 1pt ew at 40/1

Weekly review

Horses:
On Saturday three horses from "my stable" were running. This is simply a list of horses I really like, usually because they've won for me, and I indulge in betting them throughout the season regardless of price etc. There's never more than 5 horses in the stable at any one time, and it is a useful way of keeping a lid on any sentimentality I have within racing whilst at the same time not losing sight of my love for the sport. Also, some of my best wins have come from this somewhat silly approach. Atavus some years ago, and Sergeant Cecil last year for example.

On Saturday I combined Zowington (33s), Court Masterpiece (6s) and Fullandby (12s) in each way doubles and trebles for another success for the approach. I recommend it wholeheartedly as an adjunct to the normal more rigid numbers-based approaches.


George Washington:
Yes, I did price GW as 5/1 on my tissue. As a result I went in heavy on Proclamation backed up by Court Masterpiece and even Araafa near the off. Obviously my price was wrong, and I got my arse kicked, but on the whole I think I'd do the same again next time. One thing it is worth learning and I've said this to myself before. Often you see warnings to take whatever O'Brien says as hype for the stud, and I must admit I tend to take against it myself. However, in reality he does seem to be on the level when he really commits to a horse.


Twiston-Davies
Last year I went on holiday in Scotland and managed a nice fun day out at Perth races. I wasn't betting, more eating ice cream and mug-punting fivers. However, I noticed that Twiston-Davies had sent some pretty decent animals up to race against summer scottish rubbish, and that this seemed to be an on-going affair. I never look at summer jumps full stop but last week the fact that Perth was on again caught my eye. I threw a point at Twiston-Davies's four runners in a get luck accumulator, and blow me down if they didn't all win!

I actually have quite a few of these "trainer system" bets in my head. I need to find a place to record them so that they are at hand and I don't overlook them in future. Not only are the definitely profitable, but they offer occasional big returns for little outlay.


Golf:
I made a mistake this week. I mistook the US tour for US players. I should have remembered only a few months ago saying to a friend how remarkable it was that Australians were dominating the tour. The plain fact is US golf is in a terrible state, and that, coupled with Mickelson and Woods' seening indifference to the Ryder cup, should have made it plain what was going to happen.

Also, a Ladbrokes compiler made a comment pre-tournament that hit home. He said that some people just like to take against the favourite hoping that they'll get value that way, but in this situation 8/13 Europe was definitely huge value. There's no doubt being contrarian by nature is one of the cornerstones of my success, but it can be an overdone strength. This is even more true in sports betting as opposed to horse betting, though even there, as we know, betfair has forced the value to the front end.


Football
Backing Reading to beat Man Utd nearly worked out. However I need to take a reality check on these type of bets as well. I remember when Fulham came up and played the big boys, and there just wasn't the actual self-belief that we could win - compete, yes : win, no. There's probably more scope to play similar matches on Asian handicaps and not be so greedy. This is an undercurrent through all of my sports betting. My horseplayer head tends to dominate and this is a mistake in a betting environment where the events are just much less competitive and random than (say) a competitive class 2 handicap, and where upsets similar to those in racing are just much rarer.

Weekend football 23rd Sept

Down to a more manageable 5 matches this weekend. For information the three matches that nearly made it onto the list but failed the last criteria are as follows:

Luton beat West Brom
Brentford (away) beat Chesterfield
Mansfield beat Accrington

We'll keep an eye on these ("near bets") all season to see how they fare.


The real bets though are as follows:

Reading 5pts beat Man Utd at 6/1

Leicester 5pts beat Colchester at Evens

QPR 5pts beat Hull at 11/8

Port Vale 5pts beat Bristol City at 13/8

(Sunday) Wrexham 5pts beat Hereford at 5/4

Ryder Cup

My heart obviously says Europe, but my gut isn't so sure. I've backed us every time over the last decade plus, when we've been seriously wrongly priced. This time I can't help feeling the USA are the ones being overlooked. For a start rookies have a terrific Ryder Cup record over the last few tournaments and much of what people are writing about the USA team now, they used to write about us.

Tough call. However there is one bet that looks too big. I'm on, but at limited stakes unfortunately.



Casey - top European points scorer - 2pts ew at 12/1

Weekend Football 16/17 Sept

Last night's results no good for us, and we need to keep on the right side of Keano from now on. Mind you, I said that about Portsmouth a few weeks ago and here I am betting against them!

Charlton 5pts beat Portsmouth 6/4

Stoke 5pts beat Burnley 6/5

Gillingham 5pts beat Swansea 6/4

Scunthorpe 5pts beat Cheltenham 5/4

Barnet 5pts beat Notts Co 7/5

Hartlepool 5pts beat Shrewsbury 6/5

Torquay 5pts beat Mansfield 6/5

Blackburn 5pts beat Man City 11/10

Man Utd 5pts beat Arsenal Evens

Mid-week Football 13/9

Two more matches to get involved in tonight.


Leeds 5pts beat Sunderland at 7/5

Torquay 5pts beat Bristol Rovers at 11/10


I've also done the ratings for the weekend and am just waiting on a few prices. Looks like another 9 matches, which continues to worry me, despite last night's romp. The compilers seem to have suddenly deviated from my ratings and I'm not sure why - all I can think is that they are paying slightly more attention to recent games (6 match form perhaps) than I am. If so, the next few weeks should be an interesting experiment - though hopefully not an expensive one!

Weekly Review

I'm going to start adding a weekly review of betting purely for my own benefit. I'm thinking the act of typing out my written notes will cement them in my mind, plus they'll hopefully provide a useful aide-memoir for a year's time, when looking at the same events again. Apologies to all for the self-indulgence (like a blog isn't!) - scroll down.


St Leger:
Sixties Icon was a solid favourite, as you'll see from my tissue below, against very average opponents. People wanted to be against him on forums all week - "he's the likeliest winner but a rotten price". They were looking for reasons to oppose. Noseda's form provided one. His horses had gone a fortnight without winning, including many favourites. This was enough to push the horse from odds on to 6/4. And that despite Noseda remaining bullish, and his 2 runners on the Friday both running to form. This sort of over-reaction against the big race favourite is a feature of the betfair world and something we can exploit.


Irish Champion:
I priced this up as being a tactical affair, and if brutally honest with self was looking for revenge for Alexander Goldrun over Ouija Board after my maximum bet at Goodwood. However, Coolmore used Ace as a pacesetter, and in doing so ensured Alexander had very little chance. I should have recognised this as an obvious threat.


Racing Saturday:
There was both the above, the rest of the York/Doncaster card, plus decent races at Chester and Goodwood. I looked at 11 races in all, and found decent bets in 6. I crossed one out completely. However, the other 4 were possibles, but dodgy, including an impossible Portland Handicap. I ended up doing Last Minute Bets in all 4 - without success. I could easily have simply added them to the discard pile, and probably should have done. Be careful during similar full days.


Longchamp:
Arc Trails weekend provided the usual tactical nonsense. However, Shirocco won his race - remember that when all the guff starts being peddled about the challengers.


Mid-week Football:
I ended up rating 9 lower league matches as bets, a worryingly large amount. This was on the first night of Champions League action, and on a Tuesday. I wonder if it's possible that the odds compilers took their eye off the ball? Considering the success of the ratings it's certainly something to remember for next year, and not to be worried if it happens again.

Mid-week Football - Sept 12th

It looks a remarkably busy night. Could just be a freak, or perhaps the odds compilers have been distracted by the Champions League, or perhaps this is where the ratings come unstuck!!

Plymouth 5pts to beat Cardiff at 13/8

Preston 5pts to beat West Brom at 13/8

Wolves 5pts to beat Derby at 10/11

Brentford 5pts to beat Swansea at 11/8

Crewe 5pts to beat Cheltenham at 10/11

Rotherham 5pts to beat Tranmere at 15/8

Scunthorpe 5pts to beat Port Vale at 8/5

Hartlepool 5pts to beat Mansfield at 5/4

Champions League - outrights

Here's my tissue and recommendations. We'll start a small portfolio, and go in again at the second stage/quarter finals.


Chelsea 7/1
Barcelona 7/1
Man Utd 10/1
Real Madrid 10/1
Inter Milan 12/1
AC Milan 12/1
Lyon 12/1
Liverpool 16/1
Valencia 16/1
Munich 25/1
Arsenal 25/1
Roma 25/1
PSV 25/1


Recommendations:

Valencia 2pts win at 25/1
Lyon 2pts win at 20/1
Roma 1pt win at 45/1
PSV 1pt win at 130/1

Top goalscorer
Saha 1pt ew at 40/1

Group stages:
PSV 5pts win at 9/2
Lyon 5pts win at 2/1
CSKA 5pts win at 9/1

Madrid Open golf

I'm keeping well away from the matchplay event this week - those events are hopless for betting purposes.

So, I'll stick to the European tour:

Olazabal 2pts win at 12/1
Fasth 1pt ew at 40/1
Ilonen 1pt ew at 100/1

NFL

I usually have a small dabble in this, and considering my only knowledge of American football was gained over the three months I worked in a sports bar in Seattle over 20 years ago, I have to say I've been extraordinarily lucky over the years!

One from each conference purely for interest, and I like Ladbrokes quarter odds 1234.

Arizona 1pt ew at 40/1

Baltimore 1pt ew at 40/1

Weekend Football 9 Sep

Only three matches this weekend, but I have to say I really like them, though with Preston's inability to score we'll save in case it's goalless.


Everton 5pts beat Liverpool at 3/1

Derby 5pts beat Sunderland at 8/5

Preston 5pts beat Cardiff at 7/5
Preston 1pt no goalscorer 15/2ish

Omega Golf

A very poor field in Europe with Garcia head and shoulders above this lot. He looks an amazing ew prospect and I've been matching him up with anything I can find that looks decent place value!!

For on here I'll do a golf double:

Garcia 11/2
Singh 13/2
2pts ew double


For the Omega itself:

Dougherty 1pt ew 125/1
Edfors 1pt ew at 40/1
Wall 1pt ew at 40/1

St Leger tissue

Not very exciting I'm afraid but here it is:

Sixites Icon Evens
Jadalee 8/1
Tusculum 9/1
Red Rocks 10/1
Mountain 33/1
Fire and Rain 33/1
Ask 33/1
Puerto Rico 33/1
Mont Etoile 33/1
Championship Point 33/1
Galient 100/1
The Last Drop 100/1

Sixties Icon looks solid to me. Very difficult to find something to beat it. For place betting I could see Championship Point performing better than of late if over whatever seems to be ailing him, and just possibly Mont Etoile could surprise once again.

I do have some ante post vouchers I rather wish I hadn't on Fire and Rain and Ask, and at least I have beaten the odds on Tusculum. I can't see me dashing to have another bet. My best chance is for Sixties Icon to be one of those big race favourites people want to oppose on a Saturday leading him to drift to ridiculous price - 6/4 would do.

Summary of performance

Time for a review of progress since launch of this blog.

Football
Points out: 912
Points in: 922.5
% returns: 101%

Football matches this season (included in above)
Points out: 100
Points in: 120
%returns: 120%

Golf
Points out: 303
Points in: 225
%returns: 74%

Racing
Points out: 50
Points in: 76
%returns: 152%

Racing (at escorialracing.co.uk - this flat season - not included in blog figures)
Points out: 1483
Points in: 1530
%returns: 103%

Others
Points out: 61
Points in: 143
%returns: 234%

ALL
Points out: 1326
Points in: 1366.5
%returns: 103%


Summary.
Football suffered the horrors of the world cup. This wasn't so bad on here, but set me back a fair way personally. The football match betting showed a profit last season, and so far early on this season is going well. I'm hopeful the ratings stack up and stealing the best prices does the rest.

Golf continues to be a drain. My syndicate partner and I have scaled back, and so in reality the points I suggest here are not actually the same bet size as the racing and football. I should probably bring all that into line on here, but hey it's only a blog no-one reads!

Racing-wise this hasn't been my best of seasons, and considering racing forms a significant part of my earnings-target, that has been a constant worry all year. The grinding bets (as put up on escorial) are showing a profit, but it's the "get rich" bets that have been dragging my own fund down. These are the ones that usually provide the leap forward you need, but you have to expect long painful losing runs with them, with near-misses part of the furniture. So it's been this season. For example I've done 59 forecasts over the season, with only one winner to show for it.


Bet and fund sizes:
To briefly summarise my racing bets are up to a maximum of 12 points. 12 points equates to 2% of my racing fund.

Football match bets are fixed at 5pts - this equates to 1.25% of my football fund. It was going to be raised to 2% after last season, but after the World Cup I had to scale back. I'd like to get to 2.5% next season.

Golf bets are usually just 1 or 2pts. 2pt is equivalent to half per cent of fund, and needs to be fixed so low to account for the prices and inevitable losing runs (plus the fact I'm losing!)

Other bets are variable. I have a "trading fund" and am willing to invest 20% of that fund on the right trade or 20% of the fund per event. The fund is a fifth the size of my racing fund and half the size of my football fund.


Bets in-running:
We still have to collect a nice amount on Ryan Moore as champion jockey. And Hayley should make it to 25 winners eventually. Our football league champions bets aren't looking quite so hot!


Future news:
Escorial is going subscription only at the end of October. I'm not entirely sure where this leaves me. I'm not sure how I feel about putting my thoughts up for free on a board that people pay for! I do hope it's a big success though - Ron sure deserves it for all the effort he's put into it. We'll see.

Weekedn Football 1-3 Sept

Another four games this week, carefully avoiding the internationals. I don't aim to have four matches each week, it's just turning out that way lately.

(Friday) Torquay (away) 5pts beat Darlington at 7/2+

(Friday) Hartlepool 5pts beat Boston at 11/10

(Saturday) Crewe 5pts beat Huddersfield at 6/4

(Sunday) Stockport 5pts beat Bristol Rovers at 6/4

BMW Golf

A bit late this week: (and missed some of the best prices as well)

Casey 2pts win at 12/1

John Daly 1pt ew at 50/1

Jason Day 1pt ew at 100/1

Betfred Sprint Cup - Haydock Saturday 2 Sept

As you know I put my racing tips up on:

www.escorialracing.co.uk

However, I don't put my ante post bets up there, so I thought I'd try to put more of those up on here. This week I've had a look at the major race at Haydock this Saturday.

Reverence is solid, as is Ifraaj (though a likely non runner). Amadeus Wolf at an early 6s is tempting, especially if Ifraaj is a non runner, but as usual I've cast around for a couple of longer shots.

Miss Sally has a bit to find, but should love the conditions, and looks far too big to me. Somnus loves this race and has every chance of yet again running into the frame. Ladbrokes go 14s so the bigger prices are tempting. It's not an ew race really but I've gone ew anyway.

Miss Sally 1.5pts ew at 40/1
Somnus 1.5pts ew at 25/1

Weekend football 26/27 August

I was going to do Middlesborough and Charlton last night at fancy prices - idiot!


Four again:

Wolves 5pts beat Luton at Evens

Huddersfield 5pts beat Forest at 8/5

Orient 5pts beat Swansea at 6/4

(Sunday) Villa beat Newcastle at 7/5

WGC - Firestone

100 pts down on golf bets - dragging this site's profits down.

Di Marco 1pt ew at 40/1
Davis Love 1pt ew at 80/1

Adam Scott 1pt win w/out Woods at 16/1

Cink 1pt place at 10/1
Westwood 1pt place at 20/1

USPGA Golf

I'll play the last major, rather than the Russian Open!


Di Marco 1pt ew at 66/1
Ogilvy 1pt ew at 50/1
JB Holmes 1pt ew at 300/1
Howell 1pt ew at 125/1

Pettersson 1pt ew at 25/1 - top European

Weekend Football 18 and 19 August

Four more matches for this weekend. One from each division.


Coventry 5pts beat Leicester at 6/5 (Friday)

Bolton 5pts beat Spurs at 9/5

Brentford 5pts beat Huddersfield at 13/10

Rochdale 5pts beat Notts Co at 7/5


Bolton really do look a long price to me. Everyone's assuming they'll struggle this year, and possibly over-rating Spurs as well.

Big Brother

An update as we enter the final furlong:

Originally I suggested 2pts on Leah (lost) and 3pts at 30/1 Glynn.

Later I suggested at least trading out for a free overall position when Glynn was 3/1, and also getting a free stake on Aisleyne at 20/1.

Glynn is now 16/1 and very unlikely to win. Much to my astonishment Aisleyne is the one putting in a late surge to upset the favourite. I can't see it myself, and will be trading out again, at 5/1 or under, and "going green".

I've bettered this personally, but will call it 10pts profit.

Weekend Football 12 August

This week's recommendations.


Southampton 5pts beat West Brom 11/8

Plymouth (away) 5pts beat Sunderland 9/2

Oldham 5pts beat Swansea 11/8

Bury 5pts beat Shrewsbury 7/5

Dutch Golf

Golf back to normal last week!


Richard Green 1pt ew at 25/1

Alastair Forsyth 1pt ew at 80/1

Tom Whitehouse 1pt ew at 80/1 (or bigger)

Weekend Football Matches

I was going to up my points per match to 8pts (2% of fund), as the ratings performed well last year. However, the World Cup damaged my bank to such an extent I have to stay with 5pts per game this season.

Remember price is everything. Don't take under these prices.

Preston 5pts beat Sheff Weds at 4/5

Bournemouth 5pts beat Chesterfield at 11/10

Grimsby 5pts beat Boston at Evens

Hartlepool 5pts beat Swindon at 11/8

Scandanavian golf

I think we'll keep the bets small on the golf for now:

Stenson 2pts win at 14/1
Dyson 1pt ew at 50/1

Football League - recommendations

My football syndicate members have input into our pre-season portfolio so these aren't all my ideas, and are not all based on the tissues below.

Totesport deserve credit for going quarter odds 1234 in the lower leagues - take advantage where you can. With the doubles etc make sure you take the time to shop around and do best prices. Don't just do with one bookie.

Bolton 2pts w/out big 4 at 14/1
Bolton 2pts top 6 at 9/2
Crystal Palace 4pts win at 14/1
Torquay 1pt ew at 40/1 (ew 1234)

2pts ew double Leeds/Bristol City
1pt ew double Southampton/Millwall

16 x 1pt doubles and 12 1/3 pt trebles these teams
Southampton/Coventry/C Palace
Huddersfield/Doncaster
Darlington/Peterborough

Football League Outrights

Here's the tissues: I'll do the recommendations on a separate posting.

Premiership
Chelsea 4/5
Liverpool 6/1
Man Utd 6/1
Arsenal 9/1
Spurs 33/1

I think Chelsea may not wrap it up so quickly this time. There's trading potential, either to get Liverpool and Man Utd on board early, or to lay Chelsea, with a view to riding the highs and lows.


Championship
Crystal Palace 9/1
Southampton 10/1
Preston 11/1
Birmingham 12/1
Leeds 12/1
Norwich 12/1
Wolves 20/1
Ipswich 20/1
West Brom 20/1
Coventry 20/1

Competitive as ever. If you take the view that the relegated sides have it all to do, there is potential at the front-end of the market. My figures are based around my ratings, but with a healthy tweak for managers. I'm in the camp that rates Peter Taylor, and George Burley obviously commands utmost respect. Also, as a Fulham fan, Micky Adams can do no wrong.



League 1
Nottm Forst 7/1
Bristol City 7/1
Millwall 10/1
Brentford 12/1
Huddersfield 12/1
Doncaster 12/1
Crewe 16/1
Brighton 20/1
Bradford 20/1
Gillingham 25/1
Swansea 25/1
Oldham 25/1

There's only 60 points between all of these on my ratings. By comparison the Premiership has a spread of 170, and the Championship 100. Frankly any of them can win, and I'd rather look at the ones around 12s than the market leaders.



League 2
Milton Keynes 8/1
Swindon 8/1
Hartlepool 12/1
Walsall 20/1
Grimsby 20/1
Torquay 20/1
Wrexham 20/1
Wycombe 20/1
Peterborough 20/1
The rest between 25/1 and 50/1 but all with chances.

As for League 1 there's nothing between all these on ratings. Who knows!

Open review

Well that was pretty good.

Woods for the money, plus Furyk placed without Els and Woods. Pettersson came pretty close to top European and as he traded at 1/2 for a time on betfair, there was no down-side.

A welcome relief to have a winning week at golf, and thrusts the blog back into overall profit, which considering the long-term golf losses is remarkable.

I'm not sure where I'm going overall with the golf strategy. With the football season starting soon I'm going to take a break for a week, have a think and come back refreshed ready to get stuck in.

Open after day 2

We're in good shape with Woods and Els clear, and with Pettersson, Pampling and Ogilvy still alive for places.

Here's the tissue after day 2.


Woods 5/4
Els 9/4
Di Marco 33/1
Goosen 33/1
Scott 33/1
Furyk 33/1
Garcia 66/1
Jiminez 66/1
Mickelson 66/1
Cabrera 100/1
Ogilvy 100/1
Pettersson 100/1

It will take a big performance to catch the front two now. The betting without Woods and Els market is also disappointing but we'll make one small addition to our portfolio.


Jim Furyk (w/out Els and Woods) 1pt ew at 20/1 (quarter 1234)

Open after day 1

Not too bad a day for us - Woods down to 2/1 and Pettersson and Pampling in the mix.

Latest tissue:
Woods 4/1
Els 7/1
Mickelson 11/1
Singh 20/1
Furyk 20/1
McDowell 33/1
Jiminez 33/1
Garcia 33/1
Pettersson 33/1
Scott 33/1
Owen 100/1
Weir 100/1
Crane 100/1
Pampling 100/1
Clarke 100/1

Glad we've got Tiger in the tank, and I wouldn't want to lay him, but 2/1 looks on the skinny side. I've played a few at big prices but for the tissue Els looks far too long at 14s. Let's grab some.

Els 2pts at 14/1

Open

Immelman's a non runner, so in topping up my points I'll shamelessly steal from Jeremy Chapman of the Racing Post, as I was taken by one of his advices, though missed the best price and was limited on the next best!


Todd Hamilton 1pt ew Top American 175/1

Open Championship

Here's my tissue. I watch this from first ball to last, and trade myself silly. So let's throw a decent 20 points at the damned thing on here - my percentages are ruined by the golf anyway!


Woods 6/1
Mickelson 10/1
Els 25/1
Singh 25/1
Donald 33/1
Scott 33/1
Pettersen 33/1
Furyk 33/1
Immelman 33/1
Ogilvy 33/1
Goosen 50/1
harrington 50/1
Howell 50/1
Casey 50/1
Appleby 66/1
Clark 66/1
Stenson 66/1
Allenby 66/1
Pampling 66/1
Garcia 66/1
Perry 100/1
Montgomerie 100/1
Campbell 100/1
Bjorn 100/1
Olazabal 100/1
Cabrera 100/1
Westwood 100/1
Poulter 125/1
O'Hern 125/1
Love 125/1
Weir 125/1
Ames 125/1
McGinley 125/1
Jiminez 125/1


Recommendations:
To be honest Woods' price looks fair to me. And the other prices that look decent enough to tempt me are:

Woods 6 points at 6/1

Pettersson 1pt ew at 125/1
Ogilvy 1pt ew at 50/1
Pampling 1pt ew at 125/1

Stenson - top continental European 2pts at 9/1
Pettersson - top continental European 2pts at 14/1
Immelman - top South African 2pts at 9/2
Casey - top GB and Ireland 2pts at 12/1

Scottish Open golf

Let's see if we can improve on last week's 100/1 second.

Tim Clark 1pt win at 20/1
Poulter 1pt ew at 25/1
Jacobsen 1pt ew at 50/1



Newmarket July meeting analysis over on

www.escorialracing.co.uk

though it's not my favourite festival.



I'll continue to lay the cricket 1st test draw, though there has to be doubts about these bowlers getting 40 wickets between them!

Update on in-running bets etc

What a hopeless World Cup that was for me. It will take me a while to get my football fund back on its feet! With that and the sorrows of the golf fund it's just as well that the bread and butter (trading fund) and the core businesse (racing) continue to pay the bills. Don't forget to look in at

www.escorialracing.co.uk

for the racing - a couple more winners today - 11/2 and 8/1.



Update on ongoing bets.
Nadal through to the Wimbledon final ensures some profits though victory is unlikely, and Lara is leading the European golf open at 100/1 - watch him collapse tomorrow, but you can get out now at 5s if you want.

More long-term - Ryan Moore (advised 9/1) is now odds-on for the jockey championship. With Fallon banned (and there's dancing in the streets of Tooting over that one), Ryan has every chance of picking up some great rides from the Stoute stable. I've covered my bets already but will stick with him for the money.

Hayley Turner rode a winner yesterday against one of mine, which is one more on her way to 25 winners this year - it's been pretty tortuous progress but she has got to 16.

Hopefully you've dumped your Glynn Big Brother bets (33/1 advised) at around 6s. That more than paid for Lea (lost) and Aisleye (also dumped for a small profit). The big problem this year has been a total lack of competition in the eviction markets and its been a poor harvest this year, on top of a gruesome show.

European Open

Just a couple of small advices this week. Well not really advices, as you'd be pretty stupid to follow the golf right now - but I'll keep going with the experiment.


Peter Hanson 1pt ew at 125/1
Lara 1pt ew at 100/1

French Open golf

I've changed tack a bit, admittedly with no appreciable difference!


Van de velde half point ew at 100/1
Levet half point ew at 125/1
Havret 1pt ew at 100/1
Soren Hansen 1pt ew at 33/1

World Cup quarter-finals and winner

A couple of bets for the quarter-finals. This has been a desperate tournament for me so far - keep having to remind myself of the profits from the last European Champs to keep me sane!

As usual at the quarter-final stage I've also played the market - see previous posts for an explanation.
It does mean my book is hopelessly one-sided, Argentina or bust, and God forbid Ronaldo's top-scorer!

Argentina 5pts beat Germany at 2/1

Portugal 5pts beat England at 3/1


and additions/top-ups to the outright:

Argentina 4pts win at 9/2
Portugal 1pt win at 16/1

Wimbledon Tennis

Let's take some early positions here, and then re-visit at the quarter final stage.

In the men's I'm looking for the winners of the half opposite Federer, but the women's is looking as open as ever.


Nadal 2pts ew at 20/1
Baghdatis 1pt ew at 100/1

Hingis 2pts win at 16/1
Vaidisova 2pts win at 12/1

World Cup Last 16

I think England and Italy are way too short - decent possibilities trading, asians and draw no bet. Mind you, I thought the same about Germany!


However, following the normal rules:

Spain 5pts beat France at 5/4.

Gleneagles Golf

People of a nervous disposition look away now.

By the way don't forget Royal Ascot is covered over on:

www.escorialracing.co.uk

where I even managed to nail the winner of the Royal Hunt Cup today!!

Unfortunately on here golf is rather spoiling my own scoring average!


Lynn 1pt ew at 50/1

Dredge 1pt ew at 25/1

World Cup - final round of matches

The ratings are settling down now, and whilst this is the potentially "dodgy", I've trusted them.


Trinidad 5pts beat Paraguay at 100/30

Portugal 5pts beat Mexico at 6/4

Ivory Coast 5pts beat Serbia at 6/5

Czech 5pts beat Italy at 11/4

Australia 5pts beat Croatia at 9/4

and 1pt acc at 240/1

US Open Golf

Golf is dragging this blog down so much I'm inclined to ditch it. But the hope is outdoing the despair, and I'll keep plugging away!


Chad Campbell 1pt ew at 80/1
Tim Clark 1pt ew at 66/1
Van Pelt half point ew at 150/1

Big Brother update

Those of you who got the 30/1 Glynn are sitting pretty - currently 3/1 on betfair.

I'd be inclined to at least trade for a free bet. You could do worse than take the stake and put it on Aisleyne at 20/1 outright, or go for the top female market. It's very rare that I'm interested in backing a vaguely attractive female in this, but she has actually made me laugh on the few occasions I've looked in. Leah of course is a no-hoper. I'm hanging on waiting for a chance to trade out as close to our opening price as possible.

Annika Sorenstam

Whilst we're on the golf, you don't get the chance to bet 9/2 about Sorenstam these days.
Ok so she's not on top form. Who cares.

Sorenstam 5pts win at 9/2

BACA (Austrian) Open Golf

Keep on keeping on!


Lee Slattery 1pt ew at 40/1

Jeppesen 1pt ew at 50/1

R Green 2pts top Rest of World at 9/1

Marc Warren 1pt ew top GB and Ireland at 40/1

World Cup - first set of matches

For those interested here is my tissue for these matches.

Germany 1/2 Draw 7/2 Costa Rica 8/1
Poland Evens Draw 3/1 Ecuador 5/1
England 8/13 Draw 3/1 Paraguay 13/2
Sweden 4/9 Draw 4/1 Trinidad 10/1
Argentina 4/5 Draw 5/2 Ivory coast 9/2
Holland 5/6 Draw 5/2 Serbia 9/2
Mexico 8/11 Draw 3/1 Iran 5/1
Portugal 1/3 Draw 9/2 Angola 12/1
Australia 13/8 Draw 9/4 Japan 13/8
Czech 6/5 Draw 9/4 USA 5/2
Italy 8/15 Draw 7/2 Ghana 7/1
Korea 6/5 Draw 5/2 Togo 9/2
France 5/6 Draw 5/2 Swiss 9/2
Brazil 8/11 Draw 3/1 Croatia 5/1
Spain 11/8 Draw 9/4 Ukraine 5/2
Tunisia 13/8 Draw 9/4 S Arabia 13/8


Recommendations:

Japan 5pts beat Australia at 2/1

South Korea 5pts beat Togo at 5/4

Ukraine 5pts beat Spain at 4/1

French Open - Women

Another outing for our quarter-finals system. This is based around stealing prices in very keen markets. We look to get the odds that represent the biggest percentage points difference between shortest available price and longest. This has reurned over 100% for the last two years I have been using it.

Henin 6pts win at 11/8

Clijsters 4pts win at 6/1

Summary of results to June

Here's the summary of how the blog's performed since launch.

Don't forget the majority of my horse racing advices can be found for free at:


www.escorialracing.co.uk


Currently this flat season they are slightly down, which isn't what we need, given they are the mainstay of my betting! Still, it was 125% last season and 115% is normal.



Football
Out 715pts
In 740pts
% return 104%

Golf
Out 205pts
In 115.5 pts
%returns 56%


Racing
Out 44pts
In 76 pts
%returns 173%


Others
Out 36pts
In 91 pts
% returns 253%


Overall
Out 1000 pts exactly
In 1023.75 pts
%returns 102%


Notes:
Obviously the golf is dragging the place down. But I have said all along that the golf is a work in progress. Even so, you may not have made much backing these selections blind, but you wouldn't have lost either. And remember there are trading opportunities all along. For example we backed Glyn at 30/1 to win Big Brother and he's been as low as 8/1.

I have a feeling World Cup fever is about to strike the blog - this could of course have a terrible effect on the profit/loss, but it should be fun.

Welsh Open

I've decided to stick to European Tour for now - not that I'm doing very well there either! The golf is certainly bringing down my percentages.


Fasth 1pt win at 22/1
Jimenez 1pt win at 10/1
Brian davis half point ew at 50/1
Ross Fisher half point ew at 66/1
Dredge top Welshman 1pt win at 7/4

The Derby - Tissue

Here's an early tissue and recommendation for the Derby (or for our American friends - the Epsom Derby).

It's based on it being definitely on the soft side.


Visindar 3/1
Septimus 5/1
Lindas Lad 7/1
Championship Point 10/1
Horatio Nelson 16/1
Sir Percy 16/1
Hala Bek 16/1
Dylan Thomas 16/1

Visindar is a solid favourite. The price just looks too short to me. Septimus also solid and I'm happy with my 25/1 ante post voucher. Soft ground should help him stay in touch with the others early and stay on past them late. If the going firms up Championship Point will be added to my portfolio (which does include Sir Percy and Hala Bek, but I can't have them on my mind now.)

The one that really stands out is Lindas Lad. Group 1 winner, solid trial, goes on the ground. Looks way too big to me, and in a fairly uncompetitive race, ew looks the way to go. Obviously there's the usual caveat of betting ante post, but the price merits it.

Lindas Lad 5pts ew at 20/1

Big Brother 7

Big Brother's definitely a trading event. Plus I'm not in much of a mood to watch it this year.
I'm wondering whether I can bet on it simply by monitoring the betfair forum!

Pete looks the main man I have to say, and this Kit-Kat promotion is a difficult one to call.

However, if you want to take a flyer on a couple of rank outsiders you could do worse than these two. Granted one's a porn star and the other's a geek, and both could be gone before June wipes its feet. However, they both strike me as having a hint of the winning qualities (Humility, Entertaining and Inoffensive). Pete, George, Richard, Mikey also qualify but not at prices that excite. Pete currently seems to possess all three qualities, plus he's orignal, so he is a strong favourite, but I couldn't go below 7/2 at this stage.


Lea 2pts win at 50/1
Glyn 3pts win at 30/1

World Cup - to qualify

My prices for the Wolrd Cup outrights and each Group are down below somewhere.

Here's a couple more bets:


USA to qualify from their group 5pts at 7/4

Korea to qualify from their group 5pts at 13/8

Wentworth Golf

I'll skip the US golf this week, and have a throw at the BMW instead.


Stenson 2pts win at 33/1
Immelman 2pts win at 25/1
Olazabal 1pt win at 30/1
Donald 1pt win at 22/1

I'll add a player at end of each day's play.

Golf - Irish Open and Colonial

Ho hum, here we go again...


Irish Open

Harrington 1pt win at 12/1
Poulter 1pt win at 33/1
Lynn 1pt place at 16/1



Colonial

Furyk 1pt win at 14/1
Toms 1pt win at 20/1
Campbell 1pt win at 20/1

Champions League final

We're in profit already, having backed Barcelona and Arsenal at the quarter final stages. Normally I'd sit back and enjoy. However, Barcelona really should be odds on for this, and I feel compelled to play.


Barcelona 5pts win at Evens

World Cup prices

For anyone interested here is my tissue for the World Cup outright, and groups.
They are based on a mixture of rankings, my ratings, qualification, world class players, and for me the most under-rated part of major tournaments - the draw.

Outright:
Brazil 4/1
Argentina 6/1
England 7/1
Holland 7/1
Germany 11/1
Italy 12/1
France 12/1
Spain 20/1
Sweden 50/1
Portugal 50/1
Czech 50/1
Ukraine 50/1
Ivory Coast 100/1
Mexico 100/1
Coratia 100/1
USA 100/1
Serbia 100/1
Poland 100/1


Recommendation:
Holland 5pts win at 16/1
Winner to come from Group C 5pts win at 9/2


Group A
Germany 4/9
Poland 4/1
Ecuador 10/1
Costa Rica 20/1


Group B
England Evens
Sweden 7/4
Paraguay 9/1
Trinidad 20/1

Sweden 5pts win at 9/4


Group C
Argentina 6/4
Holland 13/8
Serbia 8/1
Ivory Coast 8/1


Group D
Portugal Evens
Mexico 6/4
Angola 20/1
Iran 20/1


Group E
Italy Evens
Czech 5/2
USA 5/1
Ghana 16/1


Group F
Brazil 4/9
Croatia 11/2
Australia 9/1
Japan 20/1


Group G
France 1/3
Switzerland 9/1
Korea 9/1
Togo 20/1


Group H
Spain Evens
Ukraine 6/4
Tunisia 20/1
Saudi 20/1

Ukraine 5pts win at 9/4

Golf - British Masters and Byron Nelson

My R&D golf budget will be bankrupt quite shortly!


British Masters
1pt ew Paul McGinley at 50/1
1pt ew David Howell at 20/1 (gone now I think)

1/3rd pt Sandelin at 100/1
1/3rd pt Stadler at 100/1
1/3rd pt Griffiths at 180/1



Byron Nelson
1pt win Adam Scott 18/1 (hardly value, I know)
1pt place Couples at 9/1

Play-offs, The Derby, and Wolrd Cup goalscorer

Three random bets for a bored Tuesday!


1) Division 2 play-offs:
Lincoln are top of my ratings for Division 2, and yet outsiders in the betting. Mind you, I backed Preston on exactly the same basis.

Lincoln to be promoted - 6pts at 7/2.



2) The Derby - ante post.
I backed him after his maiden at bigger prices, and couldn't help topping up this morning.

Hala Bek 6pts win at 16/1



3) Top World Cup Goalscorer.
There's a few teams who look sure to make the last 16 and have two poor teams in their groups to beat, but most of them have obvious strikers at short prices. One team that seems overlooked, and which of course will likely go further is, sad to say, Germany themselves.

I'm going to cover this with a punt on Lucas Podolski (who?).

Lucas Podolski 3pts ew at 50/1 (quarter 1234)

Golf - Italian and Wachovia

Please scroll pass this embarrassing attempt to find a golfer!!

Italian Open

1pt ew Darren Fichardt at 80/1
1pt win Bradley Dredge at 33/1

1/3rd pt Lee Slattery at 130/1

1pt Khan to beat Bickerton, Canonica and Wall at 11/4



Wachovia

1pt win Goosen at 16/1
1pt win G Ogilvy at 40/1

1/3rd pt Villegas at 130/1
1/3rd pt Sabbatini at 125/1

forgot Yeovil

In my haste I forgot Yeovil.

Yeovil 5pts beat Colchester at 7/2

Weekend Football - 6 May

Was going to take it easy on this the last week, but then I saw the prices and changed my mind. Division 1 has been on my mind all season. Incredibly tight division, often wrongly priced based on an over-estimation of the difference in ability between top and bottom.

This week this has been taken to exptremes, with some amazing prices on home teams to beat away teams vying for the play-offs. One thing to remember about teams vying for the play-offs is that all they've proved themselves to be is pretty average!

The first three teams on the list would have looked like value to me at 2/1!

Bradford 5pts beat Nottingham Forest at 11/4

Bournemouth 5pts beat Brentford at 11/4

Chesterfield 5pts beat Swansea at 11/4

Swindon 5pts beat Huddersfield at 15/8

Rotherham 5pts beat MK Dons at 13/10

Rushden 5pts beat Barnet at 15/8

Summary of results

Here's a breakdown of all bets so far on this blog:


Overall
Total points out: 880
Total returns: 958.6
% Returns: 108.9%


Football
Total points out: 636
Total returns: 706
% Returns: 111%


Golf
Total points out: 174
Total returns: 112.8
% Returns: 64.8%


Racing
Total points out: 34
Total returns: 76
% Returns: 223.5%


Others
Total points out: 26
Total returns: 63
% Returns: 262.5


Bets in-running:
We have some useful football bets.
We took both Barcelona and Arsenal in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, giving us a certain profit.
We also have a nice price on Middlesborough for the UEFA cup, which may be one to hedge.
Munster represent us in the Heinenken cup, another one that may be a hedge.
Ryan Moore may have been a touch optimistic, and Hayley Turner is finding life tough as expected but has got 10 winners so far of the 25 needed in 2006.


Summary
Happy with the overall profit, and the football match bets continue to cut the mustard.
The golf is frustrating. Still, I have described it as a work in progress, and I spent a lot of time this weekend analysing my ratings and hope that I'm learning quite a lot of value, whilst I'm losing!
Don't forget that my racing tips are available for free on:

www.escorialracing.co.uk

and showed 125% returns last jumps season.

The "specials" season should start again soon, probably with Eurovision!

Weekend Football - 29th May

Some more silly prices, based on team's having to win.


Charlton 5pts beat Blackburn 15/8

Wigan 5pts beat Portsmouth 13/8

Norwich 5pts beat Wolves 5/4

Macclesfield 5pts beat Grimsby 9/4

Rochdale 5pts beat Bristol Rovers 7/4

Zurich and Andalucian Golf

This is getting me down to be honest. Still, I'll keep digging.


Zurich

Ames 1pt ew at 25/1

Pernice 1pt ew at 40/1 w/out Mickelson and Goosen

Leaney 1/3rd pt win at 110/1
Henry 1/3rd pt win at 140/1
Howell 111, 1/3rd pt win at 100/1



Andalucia

Gonzalez 1pt ew at 20/1

Fichardt 1/2pt ew at 66/1
Whitehouse 1/2pt ew at 80/1

Eliasson 1/3rd pt win at 40/1
Fisher 1/3rd pt win at 55/1
Derksen 1/3rd pt win at 125/1

Weekend Football 22nd April

Looks like we're taking on some "big" away teams this week. The ratings suggest the bookies have already decided these have won, given the paucity of their opposition. There's also an element of "silly season" thinking going on - in that the home teams often don't have much to play for. I'll steal the prices and hope for some upsets.



Everton 5pts beat Birmingham at 13/10 ("silly-season" price)

Millwall 5pts beat Burnley 6/4

Hartlepool 5pts beat Nottingham Forest at 12/5

Tranmere 5pts beat Bristol City at 7/4 (that's for you Karin!)

Walsall 5pts beat Huddersfield at 2/1

Mansfield 5pts beat Carlisle at 12/5

Golf - Asian and Houston

A slightly new approach this week, given out struggle to get this fund going. We'll major on one or two players near the front of the market, looking at each way value as well as win value, and support with hit and hope smaller bets.

And then plough in in-running if and when opportunities arise.


Houston
Darren Clarke 1pt ew at 25/1

Jacobsen 1/3rd point win at 66/1
Leaney 1/3rd point win at 170/1
M Wilson 1/3rd point win at 110/1



Asian Open
Nick Dougherty 1pt ew at 22/1
David Lynn 1pt ew at 33/1

Dyson 1/3rd point win at 33/1
Sterne 1/3rd point win at 70/1
TC Wang 1/3rd point win at 80/1

Bank Holiday Monday - football

I've only just managed to price these up, and so have missed quite a few prices. This seems the start of the silly season. You'll see that virtually all of my games involve teams who supposedly need to win. Some of the prices are gobsmacking. I had Charlton at around Evens, and Middlesborough not much longer.


Charlton 5pts beat Portsmouth 13/8

Middlesborough 5pts beat West Ham at 13/8

Bolton (away) 5pts beat West Brom at 21/10

Cardiff (away) 5pts beat Crewe at 12/5

Derby 5pts beat Hull at 6/5

Southampton 5pts beat Millwall at 10/11


I just missed the prices on Barnsley and Bristol City so will just watch those.

Weekend Football - April 15th

Here we go again, same as last week would be nice. I seem to be featuring teams in the third tier again. I think the reason for this is the teams in that division are much closer to each other on ability than the markets seem to think.

Bradford 5pts beat Doncaster at 13/10

Blackpool 5pts beat Swansea at 7/4

Bournemouth 5pts beat Huddersfield at 13/8

Rotherham 5pts beat Brentford at 15/8

Tranmere 5pts beat Forest at 15/8

Mansfield 5pts beat Orient at 15/8

Golf - Heritage and China

Heritage:

Ernie Els 2pts win at 10/1
Charley Hoffman 1pt ew at 150/1
Rod Pampling 1pt ew at 33/1




China Open

Paul Casey 2pts win at 11/1
Andrew Buckle 1pt ew at 33/1


1pt ew double
Jim Furyk 14/1
Nick Dougherty 14/1

Weekend Football 8th April

Quite a few this weekend.

Charlton 5pts beat Everton at 6/4

Gillingham 5pts beat Huddersfield at 7/4

Port Vale 5pts beat Swansea at 15/8

Rotherham 5pts beat Tranmere at 6/4

Macclesfield 5pts beat Wycombe at 8/5

Torquay 5pts beat Darlington at 11/8

Sunday
Middlesborough 5 pts beat Newcastle at 6/4

Golf Ratings

JayDee asked a question below about how to go about finding 'value' when betting on golf. I'll have a stab at describing how I am currently going about meeting that challenge. To be clear, this is very much a new work in progress. I have had enough success historically with golf to have set up a dedicated fund. However, this is the first year, and it's currently losing, but the approach may be of interest.

My starting-point is to have compiled "handicap ratings" for every player on both tours based on their results last season. They received a rating for each outing, with a rolling average covering their most recent 20 outings. I then keep this updated after each tournament.

The basic rating is achieved as follows. I come up with an average score for all golfers who make the cut based on the mid-point of all those who made the cut. These golfers scored "level par" for the tournament. If the winner shot ten shots lower, then they get a handicap score of -10, and so on. Those who made the cut but shot higher than the mid-point get a similarly calculated +score. Those who missed the cut get a blanket score of +10.

The ratings are specific to each tour, so those who play on both tours have two separate ratings. This in itself is interesting. Currently, for example, Ernie Els has a US handicap score of -5, and a European score of -10. This is actually quite consistent with other golfers, allowing me to speculate that the US tour is on average roughly 1 shot per round more competitive than the European tour.

The final ratings aren't in essence that much different from the weighted "scoring average" that each tour provides. However, there are advantages in keeping your own ratings, not least the very act of doing them provides you with unique insights that just looking at stats cold never will. Also, the ratings are kept on a spreadsheet that allows me to look graphically at how each player's form is ebbing and flowing, plus at their winning and placing strike rates and clusters.

These ratings form the basis of my pre tournament form study. They are core 'ability ratings'. I then add positives and negatives for very recent form (last 3 tournaments), and for course form, or likelihood of the course suiting.

For pricing up markets, this information allows me to cluster players into groups, to which I allocate probable winning percentages, and then compare to the early bookies odds (as soon as possible after the bookies put their prices up - usually Monday), and hope to pick off any prices I see as out of line.

The ratings in theory should work very well for "head to heads", though in reality it's unusual for the bookmakers to put together two golfers much out of line with each other. They are also very very useful for pricing up the tournaments in progress, particularly at the end of each day's play.

I'm playing with a number of tweaks to the system, as it is a work in progress, but I am happy that this provides me with some sort of edge worth pursuing.


I hope that was of some interest.

US Masters Golf

Don't forget to check out www.escorialracing.co.uk for my free thoughts and prices for Aintree from Thursday onwards. Garvivonian was all the rage in the betting for the Grand National today, and those who took the prices advised earlier on all three Irish horses are already in a great position.


This week's Masters does have me a little worried about the course. People have been saying only ten people can win ( I think Tiger's quoted as saying 6), due to the lengthening of the course. The thing is, I'm sure I read pretty much the same stuff last year, and short-hitters still managed to do well.


Oh well, here's four bets that should provide some sustained interest anyway.



David Howell outright 1pt ew at 80/1

Di Marco outright 1pt ew at 50/1

KJ Choi - betting without the Big 5 - 1pt ew at 50/1 (quarter 12345)

Rod Pampling - top Australasian - 1pt ew at 12/1 (fifth 123)


I will update via comments in-play if it all goes unsurprisingly tits-up.

Football - Saturday 1st April

Bolton 5pts beat Man Utd at 100/30

Plymouth 5pts beat Wolves at 7/4

Southampton 5pts beat Cardiff at 6/4

Chesterfield 5pts beat Nottingham Forest at 15/8

Mansfield 5pts beat Oxford at 11/10

Golf - Bell South and Portugal

This week's golf bets:


Bell South
1pt ew JB Holmes at 60/1
1pt ew Stenson at 25/1 (not a good price but he owes us nothing)
1pt ew Oberholser at 40/1



Portugal
1pt ew Brian Davis at 25/1 (I like players from US Tour 'dropping in class' to European tour)
1pt ew Oliver Wilson at 80/1 (last chance!)

Running Totals - 28 March

I was just updating my spreadsheets and tallied my overall breakdown against my breakdown for separate types of bets, and noticed they didn't match. I had overlooked Chantelle's Big Brother victory, and as such have been under-selling myself!

I also thought it would be useful to keep running totals on here based on separate types of sports, so you can see what to take notice of and what to avoid!

Don't forget the racing bets are mainly over on www.escorialracing.co.uk, and are showing 115% returns for this jumps season with only a fortnight or so remaining.

I'll do a posting like this at the end of each month as opposed to continually updating.



Football
Points Out: 443
Returns: 495.12
% Returns: 114%


Golf
Points Out: 122
Returns: 104.68
% Returns: 86%


Racing
Points Out: 22
Returns: 12
% returns: 55%


Others
Points Out: 24
Returns: 63
% Returns: 262%


OVERALL
Points Out: 611
Returns: 674.8
% Returns: 110%


Summary
The overall returns are exactly on target.

Football bets rely on stealing the pick of the prices. I can't stress enough to anyone thinking of following these bets the importance of getting at least the price I have obtained. The margins in match betting are incredibly tight and you have no chance of profiting from this advice unless you do get the best prices.

The golf bets rely on a few big winners for their profitability. I do bet quite a lot in-running, and I was going to include those bets on here, but it's too much of a pain to keep updated when the action is coming thick and fast. So, I'm not worried by the position, just looking for that 100/1 winner that smashes me into profit!

Mid-week Football 28th March

Forget Europe, here's another couple of lower league matches to get involved in.


MK Dons 5pts beat Brentford at 9/4 (shade higher betfair). No apologies for going after Brentford again, and a friend who is a Southend season ticket holder was very impressed with MK Dons when they beat Southend the other week. The bet was initially ratings-inspired though

Rochdale 5pts beat Barnet at 11/10

Weekend Football - March 25th

Here we go again: I'm happy that I've picked off decent prices and that's the main thing.


Derby 5pts beat Crystal Palace at 2/1

Ipswich 5pts beat Hull at 5/6

Preston 5pts beat Plymouth at 5/6

Gillingham (again!) 5pts beat Swansea at 2/1

Swindon 5pts beat Chesterfield at 6/4

Grand National - ante post

I seem to have a pretty full portfolio here already. However, I looked at the race afresh after yesterday's declaration stage, and found it relatively easy to whittle the field down. Here's the tissue I idly came up with - going a very conservative 50%ish on my shortlist.


Clan Royal 12/1
Sir Rembrandt 14/1
Garvivonian 14/1
Numbersixvalverde 14/1
Jack High 14/1
Hedgehunter 20/1
Cornish rebel 20/1
Innox 20/1
Lord of Illusion 25/1


The Irish trio nestling at the bottom of the handicap really stand out. I'd take them all whilst the prices survive.


Garvivonian 4pts win at 33/1
Jack High 4pts win at 25/1
Numbersixvalverde 4pts win at 16/1

Golf - Madeira and TPC

Darren Clarke kept us alive last week.


Madeira Open:
Ferrie 1pt ew at 40/1
O. Wilson half point ew at 66/1
Derksen half point ew at 28/1


TPC
Singh 1pt win at 16/1
Donald 1pt ew at 22/1
Zach Johnson half point ew at 80/1
Stenson half point ew at 100/1
Verplank 1pt place at 8/1

Midweek Football - 21 March

With my confidence in the ratings at a season low, I hesitate to put these up. However, two of them I can see as 'hedges' given my positions on Bretford and Grimsby in the outright markets.


Gillingham 5pts beat Brentford at 3/1

Walsall 5pts beat Yeovil at 11/10

Rochdale 5pts beat Grimsby at 11/5





Running totals for blog:
Total points out: 551
Points returned: 532.3
% Return 97% (boy could we do with some winners)
Points in long-term play 40

Champions League and UEFA Cup

I already have positions on both these tournaments. Not very good ones to be honest. Schalke are all that remain of the tatters of my UEFA cup portfolio. The Champions League still provide a big big win on Lyon, plus Villareal.

I have a system that grinds out profits year after year based on picking of pirces at quarter final stages of virtually any sporting event. I applied them to these tournaments, and may as well add the selections on here, even if the earlier bets were placed before the life of the blog.


Champions League
Barcelona 8pts win 2/1
Arsenal 2pts win at 11/1


UEFA Cup
Middlesborough 6pts win at 9/2
Zenit St Petersburg 4pts win at 10s

Football - Weekend March 18th

As usual:


Birmingham 5pts beat Spurs at 5/2

Darlington 5pts beat Carlisle at 9/5 (even if Carlisle have scored 16 goals in last 5 games)

Newcastle 5pts beat Liverpool at 2/1

TCL and Bay Hill golf

Just time out from a truly astonishing day at Cheltenham with antepost vouchers flying in all over the place to post up the golf bets for the week. Football may be a bit later as I can't find time for it just now, and may have a hangover tomorrow!



(Bets placed Monday night so prices may have changed - sorry)

TCL
McGinley 1pt win 12/1
Casey 1pt win 12/1
Dougherty 1pt win 14/1
Srirot half point ew 80/1


Bay Hill
Els 1pt ew at 16/1
Zach Johnson half point ew at 50/1
Adam Scott half point ew at 25/1
Darren Clarke half point ew at 66/1
Montgomerie - top European 1pt at 18/1

Cheltenham

Just a reminder that you can find my thoughts on Cheltenham daily (for free) at:


www.escorialracing.co.uk



Let's hope we do better there than we have been with the football of late!




Running totals for blog:
Points out: 518
Points returned: 523.55
% Returns: 101% (clinging on!)
Points in play 40

Football - Friday March 10th etc

I'll keep plugging away, waiting for the tide to turn.

Friday
Hartlepool 5pts beat Huddersfield at 2/1

MK Dons 5pts beat Bristol City at 7/4


Sunday
Middlesborough (away) 5pts beat Charlton at 5/2

Golf - Honda and Singapore

A bit galling that Villegas places the only time this year I haven't tipped him!!


Singapore
Srirot 1pt ew at 66/1
Kapur 1pt ew at 28/1
Plaphol 1pt ew at 100/1


Honda Classic
Petterson 1pt ew at 50/1
Bubba Watson 1pt ew at 80/1
Charles Howell 1pt ew at 66/1

Football - Tuesday March 7th

Right, let's see if all that regression work on the ratings has helped.


Swindon 5pts beat Tranmere at 6/4








Running totals for blog:
Points out: 486
Points returned: 508.55
% Returns: 105%
Points in play: 45

Football - Saturday March 4th

As per usual, following the ratings. Taking on some of the supposed bigger teams in the lower divisions, remaining convinced that the differences between the teams are much smaller than the oddsmakers suggest.


Fulham 5pts beat Arsenal at 9/4 (the notion of my Fulham being a mere 9/4 to beat Arsenal is frankly unthinkable, and now I've gone and called it value!)

Barnsley 5pts beat Swansea at 5/4

Boston 5pts beat Northampton at 9/5

Lincoln (away) 5pts beat Carlisle at 100/30

Stockport (away) 5pts beat Peterborough at 4/1