Was all set to give you the 1,2,3 in Doncaster's Sky Bet chase! Oh well...
I'm liking the look of the outsiders in the 2m5f chase at Cheltenham today. If you forgive his last run in the mud at Chepstow, then Fine Parchment looks a sporting each way bet today at 20/1. You also have to forgive current stable form, but I'll make him the cornerstone of the day. The Sawyer will be trained for this as well, and with doubts about many of these, I'll do a small saver.
I can't get excited about the Argento. Not least because I was going to put a cheeky tenner on The Tother One midweek, when he was trading at 70s on betfair, but decided he just couldn't be running...
Some nice-looking matches for draw betting in the FA cup, have attracted me instead.
So, something like:
Fine Parchment £25ew at 20/1
The Sawyer £10 at 20/1
£2.50 reverse forecast
£10 Treble returning £13000+
Fine Parchment 20/1
The Tother One 7/1
Southampton 7/1
Football 4 x £5 trebles and £5 acca - all draws:
Everton/Chelsea
Southampton/Man Utd
Wolves/Stoke
Fulham/Spurs
Be lucky.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Saturday 22nd January
I thought I had some nice bets this morning but the weather has done its worst...
The more I look at the Victor Chandler the more I think I'm wasting my time. I'll probably shove a tenner on Gauvain (20/1) and Mad Max (14/1) and watch Master Minded stroll home. The race includes three horses that have been in my metaphysical stable in the past - Somersby, Kalahari King and Crackaway Jack - and that's another reason not to get heavily involved.
So, we're going to have an old-fashioned doubles day. Haven't had one of those for ages, and they're just the thing for a Saturday gambler looking for some interest over the day.
First off, Wincanton, and the meeting sponsored by the same people who sponsor Paul Nicholls' yard. He likes to give them a few winners, and although none of them look up to much today, it could be that the conditional jockey and Nicholls' apparent poor form may hold the prices up enough at guaranteed best odds, to make it worthwhile.
Next, the Premiership. Draws have been the way to go all season (I wish they had been that season I built an expensive system round them). Last week we had a nice 33/1 return on a draw treble, and whilst this week the bets aren't so obvious, I'll happily go in again.
So, Wincanton
Bold Addition/Promising Anshan/That'll Do/Symphonick/Ramses de Marcigny
10 x £4.50 doubles and £3 acc.
£2 acc the first four plus his second string Cap Elora in the last race.
Football
10 x £4.50 draws and £5 acca
Wolves/Liverpool
Blackpool/Sunderland
Fulham/Stoke
Newcastle/Spurs
Villa/Man City
Be lucky.
The more I look at the Victor Chandler the more I think I'm wasting my time. I'll probably shove a tenner on Gauvain (20/1) and Mad Max (14/1) and watch Master Minded stroll home. The race includes three horses that have been in my metaphysical stable in the past - Somersby, Kalahari King and Crackaway Jack - and that's another reason not to get heavily involved.
So, we're going to have an old-fashioned doubles day. Haven't had one of those for ages, and they're just the thing for a Saturday gambler looking for some interest over the day.
First off, Wincanton, and the meeting sponsored by the same people who sponsor Paul Nicholls' yard. He likes to give them a few winners, and although none of them look up to much today, it could be that the conditional jockey and Nicholls' apparent poor form may hold the prices up enough at guaranteed best odds, to make it worthwhile.
Next, the Premiership. Draws have been the way to go all season (I wish they had been that season I built an expensive system round them). Last week we had a nice 33/1 return on a draw treble, and whilst this week the bets aren't so obvious, I'll happily go in again.
So, Wincanton
Bold Addition/Promising Anshan/That'll Do/Symphonick/Ramses de Marcigny
10 x £4.50 doubles and £3 acc.
£2 acc the first four plus his second string Cap Elora in the last race.
Football
10 x £4.50 draws and £5 acca
Wolves/Liverpool
Blackpool/Sunderland
Fulham/Stoke
Newcastle/Spurs
Villa/Man City
Be lucky.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
King George
Kauto Star looks about the right price today, which doesn't give us much of a way into the race. I'm not interested in backing him, nor strongly opposing him. The places do look up for grabs though, with doubts about lots of these, not least in the conditions.
At the prices the two I'll take each way are Riverside Theatre and Madison Du Berlais. Riverside has to handle the ground and stay, but given his course record and the impression he made on me last year, 16/1 is at least fair. Madison Du Berlais has shown he can make a place in this race, and just needs a return to form to make 40/1 look generous. My friend who snaffled up 20/1 on him mid-week each way w/out Kauto Star has a nice bet, but that's sadly long since gone.
There's three Premiership derbies on Sunday. Can't stop myself doing the treble...
Riverside Theatre 20ew at 16/1
Madison Du Berlais 20ew at 40/1
Liverpool/Sunderland/Birmingham £10 treble all matches drawn.
2 x £5 fourfolds the above.
Be lucky...
At the prices the two I'll take each way are Riverside Theatre and Madison Du Berlais. Riverside has to handle the ground and stay, but given his course record and the impression he made on me last year, 16/1 is at least fair. Madison Du Berlais has shown he can make a place in this race, and just needs a return to form to make 40/1 look generous. My friend who snaffled up 20/1 on him mid-week each way w/out Kauto Star has a nice bet, but that's sadly long since gone.
There's three Premiership derbies on Sunday. Can't stop myself doing the treble...
Riverside Theatre 20ew at 16/1
Madison Du Berlais 20ew at 40/1
Liverpool/Sunderland/Birmingham £10 treble all matches drawn.
2 x £5 fourfolds the above.
Be lucky...
Saturday, January 08, 2011
Welsh National
I haven't done very well in this race over the years - you've been warned. When I lived in Bristol I used to go every year in the days when Martin Pipe farmed the race and even then I'd back two of his and the third one would win - you've been warned.
On my prices (where Synchronised looks very short) I'll go for three and hope the odds cover their rather obvious deficiencies:
Watamu Bay - inexperience and an already high rating - but it's not often you get to back a Nicholls improver at 12/1 in a race like this.
Imoncloudnine - liked the way he stayed on in Badger Ales - and softer ground no problem. Would be keener if it was a flat track.
Old Benny - obviously taking a flyer here on the old boy, but 25/1 off ten stone...
Once I looked at Old Benny I couldn't help but notice Oh Crick at Sandown and so today's double is for the Alan King old-timers to roll back the years! And a friend of a friend owns Kudu Country - he won't be at Sandown to watch him, and is hardly looking to hit one out of the ballpark, but what the hell I'll go for a fiver glory treble...
Something like:
Watamu Bay £25 at 12/1
Imoncloudnine £15 at 20/1
Oh Benny £15 at 25/1
Oh Benny/Oh Crick £10 double
Oh Benny/Oh Crick/Kudu Country £5 treble returns £28000
Be lucky...
On my prices (where Synchronised looks very short) I'll go for three and hope the odds cover their rather obvious deficiencies:
Watamu Bay - inexperience and an already high rating - but it's not often you get to back a Nicholls improver at 12/1 in a race like this.
Imoncloudnine - liked the way he stayed on in Badger Ales - and softer ground no problem. Would be keener if it was a flat track.
Old Benny - obviously taking a flyer here on the old boy, but 25/1 off ten stone...
Once I looked at Old Benny I couldn't help but notice Oh Crick at Sandown and so today's double is for the Alan King old-timers to roll back the years! And a friend of a friend owns Kudu Country - he won't be at Sandown to watch him, and is hardly looking to hit one out of the ballpark, but what the hell I'll go for a fiver glory treble...
Something like:
Watamu Bay £25 at 12/1
Imoncloudnine £15 at 20/1
Oh Benny £15 at 25/1
Oh Benny/Oh Crick £10 double
Oh Benny/Oh Crick/Kudu Country £5 treble returns £28000
Be lucky...
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Montenegro
What with travelling and the weather and all, I doubt I'll even bet on the King George and Welsh National, let alone be able to post on here.
So, my Christmas present to you all is to point out that Montenegro are still 9/1 to top their group. Which just goes to show how much I move the markets these days as I've been banging on about it since October!
They top the group, unbeaten, yet to concede, and drew with us without their best players. There's obvious "England" reasons why the price is too long - hype, liabilities, and patriotism - as well as a general disbelief that the lowest-rated country can be doing so well.
I think they should be closer to 4/1 personally (which of course makes them unlikely winners). What it is, is a good old-fashioned value bet, with the added bonus of acting as an insurance bet in case England do indeed cock up....
So, my present to myself this Christmas is another £60 Montenegro 9/1.
.
So, my Christmas present to you all is to point out that Montenegro are still 9/1 to top their group. Which just goes to show how much I move the markets these days as I've been banging on about it since October!
They top the group, unbeaten, yet to concede, and drew with us without their best players. There's obvious "England" reasons why the price is too long - hype, liabilities, and patriotism - as well as a general disbelief that the lowest-rated country can be doing so well.
I think they should be closer to 4/1 personally (which of course makes them unlikely winners). What it is, is a good old-fashioned value bet, with the added bonus of acting as an insurance bet in case England do indeed cock up....
So, my present to myself this Christmas is another £60 Montenegro 9/1.
.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Strictly Come Dancing
There's not much else to get stuck into today!
Midweek Matt Baker was 6/4 to win. In the good old days I'd have been amassing the tanks and going all in. This Wednesday I scraped together the last £36.41 in my Betfair account. What a difference a couple of years makes.
He's now 4/5 after the Specials' Boys have got stuck in. Still, that's fair. To be honest I'd have him winning this at least 7 times out of 10 from here. Blue Peter, Countryfile and The One Show give Matt the perfect middle England profile for this show; he has a big voting advantage being the only man; and will throw in some gymnastics to get some 10s from the judges, who have been over-marking Kara and Pamela for weeks to ensure they reach the final. A "respected source" believes he got 50% of the votes last week, and if so, this is a cakewalk, not that it pays to believe too many "respected sources" when it comes to reality TV.
My only gripe about Matt is that I've been waiting all series for him to do a dance to his own song, Boney M's loving tribute "Ma, ma, ma, ma, Matt Baker..." I hope he's saving it for his victory parade....
I have Pamela for top female and I haven't given up on that either - not judging by my wife's frenzied voting last week. I wouldn't put anyone off a sneaky tenner on the straight forecast, but let's not dilute the bet here.
(Matt could drift to evens or better during the show, it may be worth keeping an eye on it. I'm on paella duty so won't bother).
Matt Baker £100 at 4/5
Be lucky...
Midweek Matt Baker was 6/4 to win. In the good old days I'd have been amassing the tanks and going all in. This Wednesday I scraped together the last £36.41 in my Betfair account. What a difference a couple of years makes.
He's now 4/5 after the Specials' Boys have got stuck in. Still, that's fair. To be honest I'd have him winning this at least 7 times out of 10 from here. Blue Peter, Countryfile and The One Show give Matt the perfect middle England profile for this show; he has a big voting advantage being the only man; and will throw in some gymnastics to get some 10s from the judges, who have been over-marking Kara and Pamela for weeks to ensure they reach the final. A "respected source" believes he got 50% of the votes last week, and if so, this is a cakewalk, not that it pays to believe too many "respected sources" when it comes to reality TV.
My only gripe about Matt is that I've been waiting all series for him to do a dance to his own song, Boney M's loving tribute "Ma, ma, ma, ma, Matt Baker..." I hope he's saving it for his victory parade....
I have Pamela for top female and I haven't given up on that either - not judging by my wife's frenzied voting last week. I wouldn't put anyone off a sneaky tenner on the straight forecast, but let's not dilute the bet here.
(Matt could drift to evens or better during the show, it may be worth keeping an eye on it. I'm on paella duty so won't bother).
Matt Baker £100 at 4/5
Be lucky...
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Saturday 12th December
11:40 Woolcombe Folly is progressive but shouldn't really be so much shorter than I'm Delilah. The latter is of course dependent on Ferdy Murphy, so the market will probably tell you all you need to know. 9/1 guaranteed seems too big to me though.
12:45 Time for Rupert should win, but I'll let him at the price. Robo might be worth a speculative fiver at 20/1+
1:20 Very difficult race. I think Karabak is just about the best of these, but Restless Harry is the one that's probably a touch long, even with Pricewise's stamp of approval.
1:55 Prices probably about right. Master Minded hard to back these days with any confidence, but I can't plump for one to oppose him with. I like Gauvain, and Somersby, though latter seems to be in the wrong race, and excuses are running thin for my old favourite Kalahari King. Tricky.
2:30 An easy race for us. We stick with Little Josh, even though 6/1 is probably the right price, in the hope he does a Senor El Betrutti, and put a few quid on Pigeon Island at 50/1 just in case.
3:05 Cue Card gets his big test. Having backed him at 90/1 in the bumper I'm happy to let him win unbacked at 2/1!
I'll probably over-stake during the day, but £100 could look like this:
I'm Delilah £25 at 9/1
Little Josh £30 at 13/2
Pigeon Island £10 at 50/1
(and 2.50 rev forecast)
£10 ew double Somersby/Calgary Bay
£5 treble I'm Delilah/Restless Harry/Gauvain
£2.50 accas above three + Little Josh/Pigeon Island
Be lucky...
12:45 Time for Rupert should win, but I'll let him at the price. Robo might be worth a speculative fiver at 20/1+
1:20 Very difficult race. I think Karabak is just about the best of these, but Restless Harry is the one that's probably a touch long, even with Pricewise's stamp of approval.
1:55 Prices probably about right. Master Minded hard to back these days with any confidence, but I can't plump for one to oppose him with. I like Gauvain, and Somersby, though latter seems to be in the wrong race, and excuses are running thin for my old favourite Kalahari King. Tricky.
2:30 An easy race for us. We stick with Little Josh, even though 6/1 is probably the right price, in the hope he does a Senor El Betrutti, and put a few quid on Pigeon Island at 50/1 just in case.
3:05 Cue Card gets his big test. Having backed him at 90/1 in the bumper I'm happy to let him win unbacked at 2/1!
I'll probably over-stake during the day, but £100 could look like this:
I'm Delilah £25 at 9/1
Little Josh £30 at 13/2
Pigeon Island £10 at 50/1
(and 2.50 rev forecast)
£10 ew double Somersby/Calgary Bay
£5 treble I'm Delilah/Restless Harry/Gauvain
£2.50 accas above three + Little Josh/Pigeon Island
Be lucky...
Friday, December 10, 2010
Friday 10th December
A Friday bonus.
Looks tough, but I'll throw some darts anyway.
The novice chase looks a cracker as always here. Wishfull Thinking looked beaten last time when Robinson Collonges fell, and will struggle to carry penalty against Spirit River, but he was tanking along that day and looks like he'll make the grade. Seems too weak this morning.
RavetheBrave and Regal Approach have to improve but look progressive and unexposed and there's plenty of dead wood here. Prices look fair enough.
Midnight Chase surely will go close again - looks a track specialist - but at the prices I'll have to go for two somewhat iffy horses - Bet The Boys with Murphy back on board, and Forest Pennant, if the fast pace suits.
Wishfull Thinking £20 at 9/1+
RavetheBrave £20 at 10/1
Regal Approach £20 at 9/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
Beat The Boys £10 at 20/1
Forest pennant £10 at 20/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
4 x £5 trebles.
Looks tough, but I'll throw some darts anyway.
The novice chase looks a cracker as always here. Wishfull Thinking looked beaten last time when Robinson Collonges fell, and will struggle to carry penalty against Spirit River, but he was tanking along that day and looks like he'll make the grade. Seems too weak this morning.
RavetheBrave and Regal Approach have to improve but look progressive and unexposed and there's plenty of dead wood here. Prices look fair enough.
Midnight Chase surely will go close again - looks a track specialist - but at the prices I'll have to go for two somewhat iffy horses - Bet The Boys with Murphy back on board, and Forest Pennant, if the fast pace suits.
Wishfull Thinking £20 at 9/1+
RavetheBrave £20 at 10/1
Regal Approach £20 at 9/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
Beat The Boys £10 at 20/1
Forest pennant £10 at 20/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
4 x £5 trebles.
Saturday, December 04, 2010
Saturday 4th December
Saturday Gamblers need action, we've been waiting all week to get stuck in!
But god knows what into.
Luckily, I had £50 on England in the cricket midweek so I'll count that as half my ammo for the week, and chuck the rest around.
Imprimus Tagula will carry our money in the 2:55 at Southwell at 11/2. Both Pricewise and Corals main odds compiler pick it, and that is the full extent of my form study! It's that sort of day.
The rest can go on the football, looking to see if the big clubs can continue to be as useless as they have been lately. The odds are terrible, and it's a shame the Blackpool game is off, but let's go for the fun and glory on Bolton, Everton, Birmingham and include Villa on Monday, as the bet running on there would warm the weekend up!
Imprimus Tagula £20 at 11/2
Everton, Bolton, Birmingham and Villa
6 x £4.5 doubles
£3 acca pays c.£4000
.
But god knows what into.
Luckily, I had £50 on England in the cricket midweek so I'll count that as half my ammo for the week, and chuck the rest around.
Imprimus Tagula will carry our money in the 2:55 at Southwell at 11/2. Both Pricewise and Corals main odds compiler pick it, and that is the full extent of my form study! It's that sort of day.
The rest can go on the football, looking to see if the big clubs can continue to be as useless as they have been lately. The odds are terrible, and it's a shame the Blackpool game is off, but let's go for the fun and glory on Bolton, Everton, Birmingham and include Villa on Monday, as the bet running on there would warm the weekend up!
Imprimus Tagula £20 at 11/2
Everton, Bolton, Birmingham and Villa
6 x £4.5 doubles
£3 acca pays c.£4000
.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Saturday 27th November
What a great race the Hennessey promises to be.
I cheered Denman all up the straight last year without even having had a bet on him, so I'd be delighted for the three timer. But he's more like an 8/1 shot in my book. This despite the fact he could have blown this field apart by the time they reach the cross fence. It'll be particularly interesting to see which of the young pretenders can go the gallop and still jump soundly.
Weird Al's been in my cyber-stable since his first outing, so I'm feeling a bit like a nervous owner myself this morning. The price isn't value, but I've always believed in having a couple of horses to follow blindly, and I'll be betting with my heart on this one.
On price I keep coming back to the horses proven in grade one company, running off such low weights. Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges have both dropped in the ratings and a return to form has to put them in the mix. But the one I've looked at all week is Taranis. He won this blog a fortune a few years ago as the middle leg of a treble when winning the Ryanair, so there's a little love in there, but if he travels and stays as well as he did last time out, he has to have a better chance than the prices.
So:
£60 Weird Al at 7/1 (and may drift badly this afternoon)
£30 Taranis (I'm on at 14/1+ but 12/1 still fair).
£3.50 rev exacta Taranis/Neptune Collonges
50p combination trifecta the above three.
And to get rich quick how about:
£10 Stormy Weather/Taranis/Just Smudge returns £17000+
.
I cheered Denman all up the straight last year without even having had a bet on him, so I'd be delighted for the three timer. But he's more like an 8/1 shot in my book. This despite the fact he could have blown this field apart by the time they reach the cross fence. It'll be particularly interesting to see which of the young pretenders can go the gallop and still jump soundly.
Weird Al's been in my cyber-stable since his first outing, so I'm feeling a bit like a nervous owner myself this morning. The price isn't value, but I've always believed in having a couple of horses to follow blindly, and I'll be betting with my heart on this one.
On price I keep coming back to the horses proven in grade one company, running off such low weights. Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges have both dropped in the ratings and a return to form has to put them in the mix. But the one I've looked at all week is Taranis. He won this blog a fortune a few years ago as the middle leg of a treble when winning the Ryanair, so there's a little love in there, but if he travels and stays as well as he did last time out, he has to have a better chance than the prices.
So:
£60 Weird Al at 7/1 (and may drift badly this afternoon)
£30 Taranis (I'm on at 14/1+ but 12/1 still fair).
£3.50 rev exacta Taranis/Neptune Collonges
50p combination trifecta the above three.
And to get rich quick how about:
£10 Stormy Weather/Taranis/Just Smudge returns £17000+
.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Saturday 20th November
Strange day today - there's plenty of racing to want to watch, but bets not exactly flying off the page.
All the graded races look to be priced Ok - each with a short priced favourite I wouldn't want to back at the prices, but their only credible opponents are similarly short-priced second favourites. I'll watch.
So, we're left with three tricky small-field chase handicaps.
Haydock 1:15
Pace duel up front there probably. Judging by Wincanton Tara Royal may not be able to keep up, which leaves Gringo to improve on his run at Kelso last time.
7/2 is a fair price, if an unexciting one.
Haydock 2:20
Wogan is very likeable and 4/1 is longer than my tissue (3/1). I was sniffy about some of these, which left me with Dance Island as value also at 12/1.
Ascot 3:10
Be watching to see if Noble Alan gets home over 2m1f here, as he's looked a short runner before to me. Woolcombe Folly looks the one, but again 3/1 is only fair.
Tomorrow's Becher Chase is more my cup of tea. However, again I seem to be drawn to the favourite, Maljimar. I'll put him in some accas today, and hope I don't have to bet again tomorrow!!
So, something like:
Gringo £25 at 7/2
Wogan £20 at 4/1 and Dance Island £10 at 12/1
Woolcombe Folly £25 at 3/1
Gringo/Wogan/W Folly £10 to return £750ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly £5 to return £1000ish
Gringo/Wogan/W Folly/Maljimar £10 to return £6500ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly/Maljimar £5 to return £8500ish
And assuming we're not sat on a fat voucher I'll go £40 Maljimar best price tomorrow...
Be lucky...
All the graded races look to be priced Ok - each with a short priced favourite I wouldn't want to back at the prices, but their only credible opponents are similarly short-priced second favourites. I'll watch.
So, we're left with three tricky small-field chase handicaps.
Haydock 1:15
Pace duel up front there probably. Judging by Wincanton Tara Royal may not be able to keep up, which leaves Gringo to improve on his run at Kelso last time.
7/2 is a fair price, if an unexciting one.
Haydock 2:20
Wogan is very likeable and 4/1 is longer than my tissue (3/1). I was sniffy about some of these, which left me with Dance Island as value also at 12/1.
Ascot 3:10
Be watching to see if Noble Alan gets home over 2m1f here, as he's looked a short runner before to me. Woolcombe Folly looks the one, but again 3/1 is only fair.
Tomorrow's Becher Chase is more my cup of tea. However, again I seem to be drawn to the favourite, Maljimar. I'll put him in some accas today, and hope I don't have to bet again tomorrow!!
So, something like:
Gringo £25 at 7/2
Wogan £20 at 4/1 and Dance Island £10 at 12/1
Woolcombe Folly £25 at 3/1
Gringo/Wogan/W Folly £10 to return £750ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly £5 to return £1000ish
Gringo/Wogan/W Folly/Maljimar £10 to return £6500ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly/Maljimar £5 to return £8500ish
And assuming we're not sat on a fat voucher I'll go £40 Maljimar best price tomorrow...
Be lucky...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Thursday 18th November
A few prices that look too long, for you to do what you like with. I can't afford to tie much money up long-term unfortunately, but will do some modest trebles or something.
The Weekender put up a good case for Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges for the Hennessey yesterday. Obviously I'm a Weird Al fan and don't expect to desert him, but 5/1 is in no way a value bet, and I'm a bit disturbed to read that he finished distressed at Carlisle. The two old timers meanwhile have been dropped massively in the weights and could certainly bounce back. 16/1 was still available about both this morning, and it may be worth getting them on-side at least.
We backed Maljimar for the National last Spring despite stamina worries, and he was cantering when he fell. Which makes him noteworthy for the Becher chase and I'll be surprised if he doesn't form a part of my weekend portfolio...
Montenegro remain 9/1 to win Group G, and as long as they do I suggest all long-term get rich trebles should include them!
France last night looked to have shrugged off the shackles of Domenech. That leaves them with a lot of quality. 2012's a long way off, but 12/1 or better could plump up your returns nicely, if you can wait that long!
.
The Weekender put up a good case for Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges for the Hennessey yesterday. Obviously I'm a Weird Al fan and don't expect to desert him, but 5/1 is in no way a value bet, and I'm a bit disturbed to read that he finished distressed at Carlisle. The two old timers meanwhile have been dropped massively in the weights and could certainly bounce back. 16/1 was still available about both this morning, and it may be worth getting them on-side at least.
We backed Maljimar for the National last Spring despite stamina worries, and he was cantering when he fell. Which makes him noteworthy for the Becher chase and I'll be surprised if he doesn't form a part of my weekend portfolio...
Montenegro remain 9/1 to win Group G, and as long as they do I suggest all long-term get rich trebles should include them!
France last night looked to have shrugged off the shackles of Domenech. That leaves them with a lot of quality. 2012's a long way off, but 12/1 or better could plump up your returns nicely, if you can wait that long!
.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Saturday 13th November
I'm only interested in the Mackeson today:
And for me two horses stand out on price this morning. Neither of them surprising to regulars.
Firstly, Pigeon Island at 22/1 ew first 5 places, or longer win only on betfair.
Pigeon Island landed us a small fortune in March, as the second leg of a double with Imperial Commander. So I'm hardly likely to abandon him now. As then, the key to him is a fast pace over this course, where he can sit at the back and pounce late. The trip doesn't bother me, and the light weight is a big bonus for a small horse. Admittedly he jumps pretty terribly, which is a worry for each way backing, but the price more than compensates for that.
I'm backing him up with Little Josh. He ran a cracker against Weird Al the other week, and we know how highly I regard him. There's tons of pace in this race on paper, which is going to be a problem for him, and I don't see him as an each way proposition. Better to grab some of the late 30s on betfair, and I'd suggest putting up a lay to recover the stake and a bit more, at an ungreedy price - 7s say.
Something like:
Pigeon Island £50 win/£25 place at 22/1 - first 5 places
Little Josh £25 win at 30ish
£2.50 reverse forecast the two.
£10 double Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross (Greatwood hurdle tomorrow) returns £1600
£5 double Little Josh/Manyriverstocross (returns c. £1000)
£10 treble Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross/Weird AL (Hennessey) returns £10000+
Be lucky...
And for me two horses stand out on price this morning. Neither of them surprising to regulars.
Firstly, Pigeon Island at 22/1 ew first 5 places, or longer win only on betfair.
Pigeon Island landed us a small fortune in March, as the second leg of a double with Imperial Commander. So I'm hardly likely to abandon him now. As then, the key to him is a fast pace over this course, where he can sit at the back and pounce late. The trip doesn't bother me, and the light weight is a big bonus for a small horse. Admittedly he jumps pretty terribly, which is a worry for each way backing, but the price more than compensates for that.
I'm backing him up with Little Josh. He ran a cracker against Weird Al the other week, and we know how highly I regard him. There's tons of pace in this race on paper, which is going to be a problem for him, and I don't see him as an each way proposition. Better to grab some of the late 30s on betfair, and I'd suggest putting up a lay to recover the stake and a bit more, at an ungreedy price - 7s say.
Something like:
Pigeon Island £50 win/£25 place at 22/1 - first 5 places
Little Josh £25 win at 30ish
£2.50 reverse forecast the two.
£10 double Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross (Greatwood hurdle tomorrow) returns £1600
£5 double Little Josh/Manyriverstocross (returns c. £1000)
£10 treble Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross/Weird AL (Hennessey) returns £10000+
Be lucky...
Saturday, November 06, 2010
Saturday 6th November
Stan James seem to have abandoned best odds guaranteed in favour of standing top price on those they fancy drifting - which is pretty much all of my picks today, so that's where I've gone.
1:15 Sandown
If you saw Pepe Simo jump first time out you have to take him on at odds-on, whatever the word from the yard is....this is Sandown after all.
2:20 Sandown
Songe has a favourite's chance. Bible Lord catches the eye - this is the time to get him, as it was last year, and he's fairly handicapped. Looking at Corals prices they agree. I put him in at 4s. Will play at 5s.
2:40 Kelso
Kalahari King should be able to give the weight to Noble Alan, but the market rather says it all. He was one of my favourite horses the other year but has let himself down since. I think I'll sit it out, though I expect I'll be suckered in if he gets any longer!
2:45 Wincanton
Wishful Thinking could be a good horse this year, and is probably fairly priced if you forgive his fall. It's the relative prices of the other two I don't get. Tara Royal was favourite ahead of Robinson Collonges previously and one race shouldn't lead to such a disparity between the two. Tara Royal at 7s looks a sporting bet.
3:20 Wincanton
Wide open contest. I respect the Nicholls runners without liking them much, certainly not at the prices. Ellerslie George was impressive in this last year, and though he's run like a dog since, is back on the right rating in first time blinkers. I'd hoped for longer than 14/1 but it's worth a tickle. And I'll chuck in Irish Raptor as well, 22/1 seems generous.
Something like:
£20 win Fahrisee 3/1
£20 win Bible Lord 5/1
£20 win Tara Royal 7/1
£15 win Ellerslie George 14/1
£10 win Irish Raptor 22/1
£9 fourfold with Ellerslie George returns 27000
£6 fourfold with Irish Raptor returns 28000
Be lucky...
1:15 Sandown
If you saw Pepe Simo jump first time out you have to take him on at odds-on, whatever the word from the yard is....this is Sandown after all.
2:20 Sandown
Songe has a favourite's chance. Bible Lord catches the eye - this is the time to get him, as it was last year, and he's fairly handicapped. Looking at Corals prices they agree. I put him in at 4s. Will play at 5s.
2:40 Kelso
Kalahari King should be able to give the weight to Noble Alan, but the market rather says it all. He was one of my favourite horses the other year but has let himself down since. I think I'll sit it out, though I expect I'll be suckered in if he gets any longer!
2:45 Wincanton
Wishful Thinking could be a good horse this year, and is probably fairly priced if you forgive his fall. It's the relative prices of the other two I don't get. Tara Royal was favourite ahead of Robinson Collonges previously and one race shouldn't lead to such a disparity between the two. Tara Royal at 7s looks a sporting bet.
3:20 Wincanton
Wide open contest. I respect the Nicholls runners without liking them much, certainly not at the prices. Ellerslie George was impressive in this last year, and though he's run like a dog since, is back on the right rating in first time blinkers. I'd hoped for longer than 14/1 but it's worth a tickle. And I'll chuck in Irish Raptor as well, 22/1 seems generous.
Something like:
£20 win Fahrisee 3/1
£20 win Bible Lord 5/1
£20 win Tara Royal 7/1
£15 win Ellerslie George 14/1
£10 win Irish Raptor 22/1
£9 fourfold with Ellerslie George returns 27000
£6 fourfold with Irish Raptor returns 28000
Be lucky...
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Saturday 30th October
Well, here we go. I've had an old-fashioned morning with the top races and a tissue marker pen!
The Charlie Hall looks fairly-priced. I'd love to back Knockara Beau but have sworn off as long as that sack of spuds is riding him. The Tother One looks like the one with least negatives, but I'll pass.
2:40 Ascot
A few front runners. I priced From Dawn to Dusk as a 6/1 shot, which is obviously wrong (a rusty morning!), but I guess that's where my money's going.
4:50 Ascot
Sizing Africa seems very weak this morning - drifting to a nice price, but that's a phrase that's damned near bankrupted me over the last couple of years, so caution advised. Panjo Bere has a ton on off topweight, but does like the track, and that counts for a lot here. I think I'll see how the market shapes up closer to the off.
2:35 Newmarket
Not a rational bet, but I've been disappointed by The Cheka all season, but Fallon back in the place means I'll give him one more small chance.
I'm not sure about staking for this new Saturday fun - I think I'll work round £100 a day rather than a fund and see where I am around Xmas time.
From Dawn to Dusk £40 at 10/1
The Cheka £20 at 9/1
£10 treble From Dawn to Dusk/The Cheka/Panjo Bere (returns £18500)
and save £30 for that Ascot race.
And finally, here's a value bet.
Montengro to win Group G at 9/1. Top of group, not even conceded a goal, and drew with us away without their best players. Hype, liabilities and patriotism are keeping this price wrong - I'd go closer to 4/1. And at worst it's a good insurance bet against England cocking up again...
.
The Charlie Hall looks fairly-priced. I'd love to back Knockara Beau but have sworn off as long as that sack of spuds is riding him. The Tother One looks like the one with least negatives, but I'll pass.
2:40 Ascot
A few front runners. I priced From Dawn to Dusk as a 6/1 shot, which is obviously wrong (a rusty morning!), but I guess that's where my money's going.
4:50 Ascot
Sizing Africa seems very weak this morning - drifting to a nice price, but that's a phrase that's damned near bankrupted me over the last couple of years, so caution advised. Panjo Bere has a ton on off topweight, but does like the track, and that counts for a lot here. I think I'll see how the market shapes up closer to the off.
2:35 Newmarket
Not a rational bet, but I've been disappointed by The Cheka all season, but Fallon back in the place means I'll give him one more small chance.
I'm not sure about staking for this new Saturday fun - I think I'll work round £100 a day rather than a fund and see where I am around Xmas time.
From Dawn to Dusk £40 at 10/1
The Cheka £20 at 9/1
£10 treble From Dawn to Dusk/The Cheka/Panjo Bere (returns £18500)
and save £30 for that Ascot race.
And finally, here's a value bet.
Montengro to win Group G at 9/1. Top of group, not even conceded a goal, and drew with us away without their best players. Hype, liabilities and patriotism are keeping this price wrong - I'd go closer to 4/1. And at worst it's a good insurance bet against England cocking up again...
.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Back to Basics
Oh well, trading didn't work out.
The problem was it's so bloody boring. My patience and discipline couldn't cope with it, plus I found myself hating the very sports that made me a professional gambler in the first place.
So, that's me full-circle. After 10 years I'm going right back to the start and settling on being a Saturday Gambler all over again. Hopefully that way, I'll get back to enjoying it, and enjoying the sports I'm betting on, and who knows get back to the sort of success that set me on the journey in the first place. The only down-side is having to go back to the corporate world, though even that should make me appreciate my free days more..
So, if anyone stumbles by seeing if I'm still posting, I'll put some good old-fashioned bets up on Saturdays and big race days, for the fun of it...
The problem was it's so bloody boring. My patience and discipline couldn't cope with it, plus I found myself hating the very sports that made me a professional gambler in the first place.
So, that's me full-circle. After 10 years I'm going right back to the start and settling on being a Saturday Gambler all over again. Hopefully that way, I'll get back to enjoying it, and enjoying the sports I'm betting on, and who knows get back to the sort of success that set me on the journey in the first place. The only down-side is having to go back to the corporate world, though even that should make me appreciate my free days more..
So, if anyone stumbles by seeing if I'm still posting, I'll put some good old-fashioned bets up on Saturdays and big race days, for the fun of it...
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Thursday 19th August
Dirar staunched the flow so far yesterday.
I've got Snow Fairy in at 9/4 today - so a drifting 10/3 looks too big. In the old days I'd be massing the tanks.
Instead:
Capponi/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Suruor/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Balcarce Nov/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
3 x £5ew trebles.
I've got Snow Fairy in at 9/4 today - so a drifting 10/3 looks too big. In the old days I'd be massing the tanks.
Instead:
Capponi/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Suruor/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Balcarce Nov/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
3 x £5ew trebles.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Wednesday 18th August
Hopeless yesterday, (as was my trading - particularly going low on goals in the Spurs game!)
Illustrious Blue/Shropshire/Darley Sun
£10 treble.
(maybe add Topmokea and Dirar to the mix to suit).
Illustrious Blue/Shropshire/Darley Sun
£10 treble.
(maybe add Topmokea and Dirar to the mix to suit).
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Tuesday 17th August
Let's play York this week.
Harris Tweed/Jakalberry/Almiqdaad £8 treble returns £25000ish
Cavalryman/Jakalberry/Cutlass Bay 6 x £2 forecasts.
Harris Tweed/Jakalberry/Almiqdaad £8 treble returns £25000ish
Cavalryman/Jakalberry/Cutlass Bay 6 x £2 forecasts.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Thursday 12th August
Fair Trade looks a backable price this afternoon at Salisbury. Although he's yet to show it I'm fairly sure he's as good as Hearts of Fire and that's favourite. I've taken 16s but 12s still worth a dabble.
As for the USPGA:
Ogilvy 120s
Charles Howell 300s+
Kevin Na (!) 300s+
Leishman 400s+
Matteson 500s+
and Gregory Bourdy 700s+
form my small team of no hopers!
.
As for the USPGA:
Ogilvy 120s
Charles Howell 300s+
Kevin Na (!) 300s+
Leishman 400s+
Matteson 500s+
and Gregory Bourdy 700s+
form my small team of no hopers!
.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
