Northumberland Plate

Pricewise reckons Tominator reminds him of Sergeant Cecil. Blimey that's worth a fiver, then!

There look to be stronger horses running though, Harlsetone Times and Deauville Flyer for two. They seem the right price though, and the one who looks a bit too long is Investissement. I'll go for him and save on the other two.

Newmarket 3:20 A mess of a race with some horses opposable at their prices. Which inevitably leaves me with two looking too long this morning. I'll back them both and do the forecast. Inler and Pausanias.

£100 could look like:
Investissement £25 at 9/1
Harlestone Times £13 at 7/1
Deauville Flyer £12 at 8/1

Inler £20 at 12/1
Pausanias £20 at 10/1
and 2.50 combination exacta

and for the treble Investissement/Pausanias and Afsare


Be lucky...

Ascot - Saturday

Was going to have thump at Delegator if he'd stood his ground. As I haven't backed a winner all week that would have been a nice shit and bust finale.

Instead I'll play the Wokingham, and the two at the prices are:
Fastha and Victoire De Lyphar

Keep it simple, plus do the forecast.

and a sneaky ew double Fastha and Hitchens.




Be lucky...

Royal Ascot - Thursday

Carnage yesterday - glad I'm a fun gambler these days. There'd have been blood on the walls yesterday.

Gold Cup looks wide open to me. Looking for something that could improve for extra trip at a long price. Andre Fabre's only runner this week has to be selected. Prescott hardly comes here for the fun of it either and Motrice should love the extra distance.
Bet365 going 1/3rd place terms if you can get it.

Motrice 10ew 20/1
Brigantin 10ew 20/1

Everyday Dave and Dorcas Lane for the trebles.


Be lucky...

Royal Ascot - Wednesday

Sweet Sanette traded at 1.26 in-running, not that I bailed out!


Jersey Stakes, Codemaster looks solid, but I have to play Western Aristocrat - Noseda/Murtagh with a horse who's about to give up a very nice handicap mark...

Prince of Wales's - looks a two horse race and I'm surprised at the price disparity between the two being as large as it is. Granted the Aussie horse should be favourite, but you have to play Planteur at 9/2.

Hunt Cup - Plenty of horses look laid-out for this. I'll ignore them all. Mont Angel looks solid on what could be a good day for Murtagh. But the one I like is Kay Gee Bee, up against the fence, could have won on Saturday if really trying, still some improvement there. 28/1 each way. Chapter and Verse at 40s also appeals.

Throw £50 across the lot to suit yourself.
For the "get rich quick" bet - Murtagh trebles/acca
and Western Aristocrat/Planteur/Kay Gee Bee.


Be lucky...

Royal Ascot - Tuesday

How much of a recreational punter have I become? Well, I don't even have a copy of the Racing Post this morning! So, instead of the usual form study I'm taking the oblique approach, based on an approximate tissue, and kissing some frogs.

Queen Anne - Flash Dance has no chance in the two-horse race in the first. Crossed him out without a second's thought. Unless he gets the softest of soft leads and the two protagonists spend the race watching each other. Chances of that happening. No idea - but we've seen it a few times in group races. 250/1 seems worth a fiver...can't split the faves on price.

King's Stand Stakes - our horses are pretty useless - not group 1. So, I'd be looking at the foreigners. No handle on their form though. Sweet Sanette and Holiday For Kitten both look likely darts at 16/1 and 25/1+

St James's Palace - Frankel legitimately short. Shorter than he should be though, surely. I like Japanese raiders, 22/1 Grand Prix Boss looks fair each way.

£5 Flash Dance 250/1
£10 Sweet Sanette 16/1
£10 Holiday for Kitten 25/1
£10 ew Grand Prix Boss 22/1
£5ew double Sweet Sanette/Grand Prix Boss
£2.50 ew those two and Roman Soldier in Coventry.


Be lucky...

The Derby 2011

Cold-headed, hard-bitten, grizzly old gambling pros can't let prejudice and irrationality get in the way of the business of turning a profit. Luckily Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints and I can safely say I'm opposing the favourite today just because it belongs to the Queen.

Which should make it easy because Recital has rock solid form. And if there's one person I dislike more than royalty it's Kieran Fallon. So, his absence this morning via a ridiculous courtroom decision has already made me a winner on the day. However, if there's one group of people I dislike more than royalty and Kieran Fallon combined it's O'Brien and the Coolmore mafia, something which has cost me a fortune in flat racing over the years, so I'm going to avoid Recital anyway, and discard the rest of their runners also (though ever the hypocrite I do have a modest ante post on Seville from ages ago). Which leaves Pour Moi, but those of us who put their mortgage on Pennekamp winning all those years ago aren't likely to be following (the admittedly brilliant) Fabre this time round either.

People I do like are sadly running no-hopers. Which leaves me with Vadamar and Ocean War. The latter will need a better ride than the truly terrible one Frankie gave the favourite yesterday, and I'm liking Vadamar more the more I look at it. OK so the French haven't won since the very first time I ever went to the Derby aged 15. And OK, so he was beaten by Pour Moi, and his best form is on soft ground. Let's say he had an off-day against Pour Moi (and was odds-on that race); let's say he's bred to like faster ground, and a trip; and let's say the jockey won't ride Epsom as hopelessly as all his countrymen have in my adulthood.

That being so, 20/1 each way at 1/3rd odds for those of you with Bet365 accounts, is worthy of a completely rational, coldly logical, value-added thump...

£40ew Vadamar 20/1
and do a forecast with Ocean War

Get rich quick - Falasteen/St Moritz and Vadamar aiming for £20k or so.


Be lucky....

Oaks

I don't suppose I'll be able to give you the 1,2 like last year! Not least because I've barely seen a trial, not even the 1000 Guineas.

Still, that race was obviously a farce, the horses up front dying in a headwind, so the fave has to be opposable at the price. I liked Havant but not sure about the ground, and Misty For Me is longest at Ladbrokes, always a worry with that stable, and probably a nod towards Wonder of Wonders.

I think I'll go for the well-bred unexposed horse with a canny trainer, be quick before the 20/1's all gone.

Siren's Song £25ew at 20/1

Possibly do an each way double with Resurge who loves the course, and for the get rich quick treble why not throw in a big (and unlikely!) upset in the Coronation Cup with the ultra-game Dandino.



Be lucky....

Champions League final and Haydock

If betting tonight, and you haven't had your accounts closed, there's two good deals - Bet365 will match your pre-match bet up to £50 with a free in-running bet, and Paddy Power will refund correct score etc bets if Barcelona win in 90 minutes.

No obvious value, typically. However, I've always thought penalties in finals are wrongly-priced, though I don't have the raw data to prove it. Saturday Gamblers don't need proof of course, just a dubious statistic and 3 of the last 8 champions league finals have gone to penalties - that'll do for me.

The sprint at Haydock has a clear favourite, who has legitimate credentials. I prefer to take the wider view that sprinters (with the possible exception of Delegator) aren't group 1 animals at all, and so have very little by way of class edge over each other. So we have to go against the fave here. The Cheka, who never wins, especially when I'm backing, and High Standing (already been thrashed twice by the fave) are the illogical looking choices, but prices dictated. If the fave is a non runner we're in trouble...you may want to keep powder dry for a bit yet, unless like me you're going out for the day.


So £50 on Champions Leageue to go to penalties at 11/2ish
and £50 dutched The Cheka and High Standing at 7/2ish

I'll leave you to make up your own get rich quick treble.


Be lucky...

Saturday 21st May

Sorry - off out for the day, no bets....

FA Cup and Lockinge

Blogger wasn't working for me end of this week - you didn't miss much!

I'm not the only one who thinks Man City are too short to win the cup this afternoon, judging by the market this morning. Plenty of people dabbling on Stoke. To be honest I'd want the draw on my side as well, but certainly don't think City should be odds-on.

Lockinge - Canford Cliffs needs to be fit to beat Dick Turpin, and the prices don't look right on that basis. I like Twice Over's price too, but do think he's a 10f specialist.

Earlier in the day Akmal might get a canny front-running ride from Hills here, and if so 11/2 is huge.

At Newmarket Chiberta King could be tailed off last, but won this race last year and races off a lower mark, 16/1 worth a win only bet.

And how about a few quid of Azerbaijan to win Eurovision at 9/1, and the Racing Post put up Slovenia at 100/1 - seems rude not to.


So something like:
Lay Man City for £50 at under evens.
Dick Turpin £30 at 7/2
Aqmal £20 at 11/2
Chiberta King £20 at 16/1
£10 treble the horses
Azerbaijan £15 at 9/1
Slovenia £5 at 100/1



Be lucky...

York - Musidora Tuesday

I'm around for York, so will play half stakes.

The 1:30 handicap is all about Taqleed and the two unexposed horses, and the prices reflect that. I can't find an edge I'm happy with at that end of the market, so I'll take speculation to its limits and go for a Fahey horse that probably isn't even trying today judging by the jockey booking. Still , it is 50/1 - Ingleby Spirit.

And having got a taste for 50/1 shots I'll wonder to myself what Peter Chapple-Hyam's apparent no-hoper's doing in a weak looking Musidora, and there goes a few more quid on Whey Sauce.

The sprint has a proper group horse in it - Godolphin may have ruined him, but he looks the one to land the life-changing treble - Delegator.

£5ew Ingleby Spirit 50/1
£5ew Whey Sauce 50/1
£5ew double
£2.50ew treble with Delegator for the £50,000
and if need be £10 Delegator.


Be lucky...(you'll need to be!)

Victoria Cup and Lingfield Derby Trial

I was away last week and so missed the dodgems at Chester, so am no doubt richer now than I would have been!

Victoria Cup: God knows what the ground will end up like, so caution multiplied on a track where I'm already suspicious about the straight course. Of course take that attitude to flat racing and a pro just wouldn't bet at all these days - but us Saturday gamblers want the action, and that leads me to two darts. Excellent Guest looks to have solid credentials and I'd have him vying for favouritism with the front two to be honest. Shamandar gets a tentative nod also, Haggas running him in this after such along break, suggesting he's got high hopes.

The Lingfield Derby Trial has been a good race for me in the past and the complete outsider has to be of interest on price terms, even though I know nothing about him, but as the only Derby entrant and given a positive mention from Gerald Delamere this morning, I'm happy to look a fool at 11/1ish and make him the bet of the day.

I'm not sure the usual £100 weekly bet is sensible on such a wet day, but something like:

Marhaba Malyoon £40 at 11/1
Excellent Guest £25 at 16/1
Shamandar £10 at 25/1
£2.50 comb exacta the above two
Drill Sergeant £10 Swinton Hurdle 25/1 (for the hell of it)
£10 treble Marhaba/Excellent Guest/Drill Sergeant returns £50000ish...



Be lucky...

1000 Guineas

I don't suppose we'll see a performance like Frankel's yesterday, but perhaps we'll get closer to backing a winner!

My problem this morning is that on my tissue Misty For Me comes out as value. The problem is I never get O'Brien's horses right and the clue is usually in the market - when their mob is backing their horses I don't see them as value and they win, and when they don't they drift to big looking prices and they lose. You've been warned.

Of the rest, Moonlight Cloud looks fairly priced and may drift to a big looking price if locals avoid her, but I won't be around to take advantage. Make a Dance is the ridiculous one I like to find at a sexy price, but the price isn't at all what I'd hoped.

All in all, a bit confusing. Still, having had a good day yesterday, I'll play again, something like:

Misty For Me £25 at 11/1
Make a Dance £20 at 16/1
£2.50rev fc


Be lucky...

2000 Guineas

There's no pundits looking to get after Frankel this morning (Nick Mordin aside) and it's easy to see why. Still, at that price in a field of relatively unexposed 3 year olds no self-respecting Saturday Gambler can sit back and do nothing. Sure, we're going to look stupid most the time, but it's a mighty sweet slice of pie when the sure thing does fail.

The problem is what to oppose him with. I took Casamento each way at 16s midweek - the place element looked big. 12/1 is looking closer to his price, so I'll pass over him this morning. Which leaves Fury as the horse likeliest to raise his game. He's been surprisingly tight in the market this week. You can get money back for second at boylesports at 16/1, or take the 20/1 win only betfair.

Obviously you have to do the forecast to a few quid.

For the 'get rich quick' trebles, build some perms around those two, plus Sandor in the 2:00, Johnny Mudball and Tangerine Trees in the Palace House, and how about another dent in Mourinho's home record with Real Zaragoza at 10/1+. Chuck in the Scoop 6 and join me at the pay window later!


Be lucky...

Whitbread

No time this morning. I was hoping est End Rocker or Iconoclast would line up. Instead I've had a tickle on two rank outsiders who need to find some form from somewhere but are priced fairly to do so.

Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!

Be lucky...

Scottish National

Which has been a sometime lucky race for me over the years. I'm not really connected to it this year I have to say, but I did make a note about Ouzbeck months ago "leave out of calculations until back for go at a good ground Scottish National". Emma Lavelle is one of my favourite "go-to" trainers in handicaps and I'll hope the sun shines enough at 16/1, where I had him closer to 10s....


Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1

Grand National

Nothing to add to the post below.

Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!

Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.


Be lucky...

US Masters and Grand National

Saturday Gamblers have to have a go at both of these events don't they!

Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.



by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.

My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.


US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?


So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1

West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.



Be Lucky...

The Lincoln

No self-respecting professional without inside information would dream of a bet in the Lincoln. Luckily, us Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints!

Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.

The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.

Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.

So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta

£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1

£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom

£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000


Be lucky...

Saturday 26th March

The racing is not at all my cup of tea today, with just the one race at Newbury of interest. And it's a poor one. Burren Legend won it last year and has good course form. I'm not sure this race will fall in his lap, and given he's been pulled up three times already this season, he's not each way material. But I'll play at the price, and throw a tenner at veteran Briery Fox - who I see Corals have ducked.

Another Saturday, and another chance to oppose an England team. You'll never go broke laying England teams playing away at under 1/2, regardless of all the experts in the world telling you this is a cakewalk against a terrible Welsh side. They seem to be overlooking the fact England are pretty terrible also. As we are already on Montenegro to win the group this is a doubling of our eggs in that basket to be honest, and an early England goal, followed by turning over to see Burren Legend pulled up, is a more likely scenario, but that's Saturday gambling.


So, something like:
£30 Burren Legend at 14/1+
£10 Briery Fox at 14/1+
back Wales and lay England so that your outcomes are something like:
Wales +£180
England -£50
Draw +90
£10 treble Semi-Colon/Burren Legend/Wales returns c£10000


Be lucky...