Sill no £500 Challenge bets this week, which puts the blather below in perspective!
Champions League.
I run a "betleague" competition with some mates purely for fun. Everyone seems to have gone for AC Milan to win this outright (rather than in the 90 minutes). It's strange when everyone takes a close match and are completely one-sided about the outcome. It makes a contrarian like me look the other way. That said, my original feelings formed part of the consensus.
I think three things are probably at play in this group think.
(1) We see Liverpool more as an under achieving Premiership side than as a European force these days. As such we look at the line up and think - 'Peter Crouch - Champions League winner - nah'.
(2) The demolition of Man Utd has hyped Milan's ability somewhat.
(3) We think Liverpool were essentially lucky last time and tonight will be karmic revenge.
For all that my personal feeling is Milan are the side most likely to be able to win over 90 minutes, but the longer it stays level the more Liverpool take the ascendancy - in fact I'd have one eye on penalties right from the start if I was them. So, I'll be backing Milan (say 4 points) to win in 90 minutes at around 11/8 and backing Liverpool (say 1 point) to win on penalties at 10/1.
BMW Golf
I'll throw a few darts at this one, and if I'm stuck in all weekend will probably trade in-running.
The front runners are at best only fairly priced: Els has a feeble record in this on his home track; Vijay, Goosen, Stenson and Donald also have mediocre records; Harrington supposedly hates it here despite playing well and must be drained from last week; Casey and Rose have been off injured; and Olazabal, Cabrera, Montgomerie and Jiminez all look as though their big winning days are behind them.
So the finger stops at:
Karlsson - showing some form and underbet on my ratings (should be 25/1).
I'll go ew at 40/1 and also to be top Scandanavian at 13/2
Dredge and Jacquelin are the form guys on the tour and with so many doubts about the front runners 50/1 each way looks fair, especially anyone playing 6 places.
And of course I'll continue to squander past winnings on Jeev Singh at 125/1 despite his 96 or whatever it was last week!
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