York 1:45
Kay Two 5/1
Fire up the band 10/1
Corridor Creeper 12/1
Green park 12/1
Tournedos 16/1
Hogmaneigh 16/1
terentia 16/1
Cape Royal 16/1
Masta Plasta 16/1
Bigalos Bandit 16/1
Corridor Creeper had the race fall in his lap last time, and Kay Two was given far too prominent a role. Whatever the going over 5f at York they don't seem to come back and I can see this suiting Kay Two much more. Other trail-blazers will have their chances as usual, and Kay Twos draw wide tempers enthusiasm. I'm a player at 6/1 though.
York 2:15
Anna Pavlova 5/4
Echelon 4/1
Topatoo 5/1
Maroussies Wings 16/1
Portal 16/1
Summers Eve 16/1
Echelon may have idled in front last week - or the trip may have been at her limit. The going will make it even more of a test here and I think I'll play against her. Anna Pavlova looks rock solid against her anyway. Topatoo loves the track and will be fitter than her brave run last time. Looks a good bet to place in the dead eight. The £500 challenge will copy the bet I did in midweek. (See below)
York 2:45
Authorised Evens
Adagio 4/1
Proponent 11/2
Raincoat 11/2
Could do with Authorised flopping her so that our Derby portfolio flourishes! Looks solid though. I like the look of Raincoat at a price, he didn't beat anything at Epsom but looked the part. My Adagio Derby voucher was long since abandoned - be interesting to see if he can get back on track.
York 3:15
Wise Dennis 9/4
Very Wise 5/1
Pride of Nation 6/1
Zero Tolerance 7/1
Blythe Knight 11/1
This looks quite a bit less competitive than the Victoria Cup and Wise Dennis only needs to repeat that form to score here. Which makes all the favourites today look fairly priced. At York in the mud - mmm I doubt it!
£500 Challenge
A small increase in stake size now we are over £600. If this loses and we fall below, back down goes the stake!
Anna Pavlova £6 at 5/4
Topatoo £8 place at 4/6 (betfair)
Straight forecast £1
Running Total
£611.52
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Hi Tooting,
ReplyDeleteI've been reading your blog for about a week now and it's one of the best pieces I've read about horse racing anywhere.
Would it be at all possible for you to explain how you convert your opinions into prices without giving the game away. I have worked on creating my own odds for a couple of years, on and off, without much success to be honest.
Any pointers would be gratefully recieved.
I'll be having a go at Anna Pavlova today .. Good Luck !
Dave
Hi Dave - welcome and thanks. It's been a good week. I'd reserve judgement for a bad one!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Echelon's going to be a non runner, and as she made the market, that's scuppered today's bet!
I could only really explain my tissue-making at book-length really - sorry.
One thing you could do to sharpen your skills is to learn from the bookies.
When you've compiled your tissue, have a look at all the prices of a race on oddschecker, and ask yourself which horses would you want to be stand-out top price, or joint top-price, which horses you'd follow the crowd, and which you'd duck. Adjust your tissue accordingly.
You may find this helps you become more accurate with your initial tissue over time.
Corals I find the most useful prices. The principal odds-setter is very good; he values form over hype so is often thinking on similar lines to me. They also bet to the highest overround so when they are stand-out price on something it's unusual and worth asking yourself why. I often point this out on the blog.
Thanks for the reply .. shame about the non-runner, AP is now trading at 1.7 and I won't be diving in at that price either.
ReplyDeleteI will start having a look at the Oddschecker site after I have done my own prices, it's a good pointer, thanks for that.
Dave
Tough day.
ReplyDeleteLooks like my Derby dreams are in tatters as well!