Cheltenham Preview

Jonah had me looking back through last year's postings on Cheltenham. My ante post advices were hopeless, and over the four days I advised only one winner. On the other hand that was enough for a 2.5pt profit on Cheltenham advices. And I did mention Ebazaiyan and L'Antartique in write ups.

It's a telling reminder though of just how competitive the festival is, and of how easy it is to get carried away in the run up to it. Every year I think I'm going to win a million on mad accumulators, only to have offered up the losing slips to the gods of Cleeve Hill halfway through the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday.

So instead of putting up tips along with everyone else who can hold a form book up the right way, plus plenty who can't, I thought I'd bore you with the state of my antepost books, and where it leaves me with the main races.

Supreme

I'msingingtheblues or Helens Vision anyone? That's the problem with Cheltenham. It squats over the whole season and you find yourself putting on bets in November at the first semblance of ability. These are joined by Kalahari King and Khyber Kim. At least the latter has a chance. The one horse I keep looking at is Sentry Duty who demolished Celestial Halo (of whom more later). He looks to have a fine chance, and yet I can't help thinking Henderson believes Kyber Kim is the more likely winner, despite apparently bouncing last time. There's plenty of credible Irish contenders and it could well be one for throwing a few long priced darts, as per last year.

Arkle

Osana was my initial plunge. He has at least been joined by Tidal Bay at 10s and Mahogany Blaze at 14s, so we have room to work. I wouldn't think Tidal Bay's jumping will stand the test to be honest. And Noland must get outpaced at some stage so I'd wait until in-running. I'd also worry about him being taken on for the lead, not least by Kruguyrova, scourge of the £500 challenge, tough, game and genuine, but there to be shot at on this track. Clopf isn't one to trust and Leslingtaylor is likeable but again this probably isn't the right course. So, latterly, like others, I'm warming to Ring The Boss. His performance against the mare was pretty eye-catching and I've added him to the portfolio at 14s.

Champion Hurdle

This is more like it. Osana at 40s and Sizing Europe at 14s. Backed up with Blythe Knight at 20s (well it was September!) and an Ebazaiyan 'love bet' at 33s (I'm sure I'll top that up, and regret it). Usually when I have nailed the ante post market some ridiculous course of events has conspired to rob me of the winnings I've already mentally cashed in. You've been warned! I still see it as a fight between the front two though.

Ballymore

This could be worse as well. Group Captain at 25s (he better go for this and not the Supreme) and Aigle D'Or at 20s. That was looking so sweet it seemed worth getting Paddyderplasterer on board as well at 6s after Pricewise's eulogies, though to be honest I haven't followed the Irish novice hurdle form.

Queen Mum

My Way De Solzen seems to be there. I've forgotten this bet, but think it may have been inspired by one of the few tipsters I take seriously. Idiot! All is not lost though as my only other voucher is Master Minded at 20s. That said, it's only for a quarter point – which I like to think is probably because I was knocked back but I can't actually remember whether that was the case. I may have just been on a losing streak/in a bad mood/playing like a fool. Whatever it could well be the only bet I have on the race.

Royal Sun Alliance

Nevada Royale (2 points), Jy Vole, Hobbs Hill, Negus de Beaumont. Why oh why? Every year I promise I won't get so hock-deep in losing slips on this race, and every year the same. Last year the only horse that could hurt me was Denman. What was I thinking? What is left in the wreckage? I have Battlecry at 100/1 and my last throw of the dice is Oscar Park at 14s. I was mighty impressed with his spin at the weekend and in a year when nothing stands out he looks a major player. I'm attending Wednesday this year and I think he's going to play a large role in the success or otherwise of my festival.

World Hurdle

Wichita Lineman at 7s and Kasbah Bliss at 20s. The latter I'd all but given up on as a non stayer, but his last run has peeled open a smidgeon of hope. All irrelevant of course because the great Inglis Drever wins this to whoops of delight drifting across Shropshire, and I can already say the £500 challenge will be playing him, hopefully in a drifting market on the back of fears about the Johnson stable.

Ryanair

Mossbank at 5s. Purely down to a very well reasoned piece by Pricewise. A bit worried to see him shortening for the Gold Cup but hopefully sense will prevail. Also worried to read Andrew Mount's comments on his regression through the course of each season. I was all set to add Turko and L'antartique to the portfolio in a field likely to cut up badly but missed the boat.

Triumph

Celestial Halo at 10s. When he and Khyber Kim won at Newbury I really thought I'd seen two festival winners, and their defeats next time rather put a dampener on my nice sized double. Nicholls remains incredibly bullish about the horse though. This is leaning me back towards Sentry Duty and in a largely circular argument back to Khyber Kim also.

That's my lot. The life changing bet concerns Kyber Kim, Ring The Boss, Oscar Park and Celestial Halo. They all remain nicely priced, even at non runner no bet. Go on treat yourself!