Saturday 16th February

Stoke came back from the dead last night. One of the benefits of backing odds on faves is that they often pull wins out of the fire against plucky losers. On the other hand, as I at least intimated beforehand, it just goes to show what a ridiculously mediocre league the championship is. I promise I won't pick another game from that division for a challenge bet this season.

A lot of decent racing today – I need to tread carefully.

Ascot 1:15

Joe Lively 4/1

Air Force One 4/1

Over the Creek 4/1

Albertas Run 9/2

Ice Tea 8/1

Battlecry 10/1

This is an interesting race. I can't get very excited about the front of the market here. Joe Lively has been flattered a couple of times and doesn't set an exacting standard; Air Force One is looking overhyped but promising, and Albertas Run's jumping needs to improve and as we know comes from stable misfiring. Over the Creek could be competitive on handicap form. Strangely I'm drawn to the last two. Battlecry let us down last week, but pulled too hard and made a big blunder when getting into it. If you forgive him that he has a similar chance to last week. Ice Tea is a horse I really like and who has already won twice for us this season, albeit at Hexham. This ground will suit, and I only regret there's not another runner for a great ew bet. I'm still playing at 20/1 though.

Ascot 2:25

Kauto Star 2/1on

Monets Garden 8/1

Racing demon 8/1

Fair Along 12/1

Vodka Bleu 20/1

Kauto Star's to lose. There has to be doubts about trip and course though. Ascot has been a funny place since the refurbishment. The home straight seems to throw up strange results as horses move from normal going onto what appears to be perpetually firm ground. Finding something to take advantage isn't easy though, especially if not keen on the next two in the market. I keep looking at Fair Along. I'd love to see Hobbs revert to old tactics and just let him bowl along in front, enjoy himself, and get them all at it. Not sure how I'll actually play it yet.

Haydock 1:05 and the Vodka Chase both look really tricky races, as does the 3:10 Wincanton, and I'll pass over them here.

Wincanton 3:40

Katchit Evens

Blythe Knight 3/1

Amaretto Rose 4/1

On the assumption Amaretto Rose isn't ready (which the vibes suggest), this looks a match. Blythe Knight is looking underrated on the back of his last run when the trainer was in very poor form and the horse had been on the go a long time. Refreshed and on a course that should suit he can really put it to Katchit, who is tough and genuine but who could struggle to make those qualities count on this track. 9/2 was cracking, 4/1 remains 'value'.

Football, I'll ignore the cup matches and stick with Swansea. Port Vale ship goals and would be the Derby of their league were it not for the two teams in administration keeping them company. The 4/5 earlier in the week was great – 1.75 remains acceptable.

£500 Challenge

(It's time we upped stakes again. I'll split the racing bets though)

Swansea £25 win at 1.75

Blythe Knight £19 win at 9/2 (4/1 ok)

Ice Tea £4.50 win at 20/1

(£1 double Blythe Knight and Ice Tea – say 100/1)

(50p treble Blythe Knight, Ice Tea and Fair Along – say 1750/1!)