Monday 4th February

No question I rode my luck this weekend. Quite apart from Tiger's and Middlesbrough's late rallies, it was the bets I could have done that played out well. I could easily have laid Fulham, backed the Patriots and indeed England's rugby team. It would be easy to congratulate myself on my decision making, but with the wind in a different direction I could easily have got all 5 the wrong way round.

That said, a book I read recently has had a very calming effect on my betting, although the book itself is nothing to do with betting. The book is Nasim Nicholas Taleb's “Black Swan”, (and an earlier book of his “Fooled by Randomness”).

I'm indebted to the systemites from theracingforum.co.uk for introducing me to the books. They are essentially philosphical treatises on financial markets , and whilst not directly applicable to sports trading have a lot to say about how we approach trading. I've found the chapters around “noise” very helpful, and they have really helped me with something I have been struggling with for 30 months - dealing with the transition from part-time gambler to full-time gambler.

Distinguishing between being seen to work (including by yourself) and actual useful work, was something I was pretty good at in the old office world. But it's much more subtle as a full-time gambler and I think I fell into the trap of doing lots of stuff that gave the illusion of being a full-time gambler but didn't provide any real edge. It's a form of 'busyness' for the sake of proving to those around you (and yourself) that you really are doing a proper job (even though, of course you're not). I think a more meditative approach has really sharpened my game. That said, Taleb would be the first to tell me I'm proably just fooling myself. Let's see if I think the same after the inevitable 8 consecutive losers!

I think I'll return to this subject.

However, today is the first day of my wife's new working life. She has gone part-time, and from now on Mondays will be the old Sundays. So, we're off for a walk, and there'll be no challenge bet today.