“£500 Challenge Bet” (£983– 2 bets running)
Was looking for a decent tennis bet but can only come up with barking bets.
The Newton Abbot novice chase will have to do instead. I'm So Lucky is a good few pounds better than these. “Never bet odds on in novice chases” is one of the many sayings in racing that doesn't stand up to the closest of scrutiny – these days at least. You do feel a bit of a fool when they fall though, or when Sam Thomas goes for home a circuit early etc. There's no doubt in my mind that such fears hold the price up.
7:35 NA Im So Lucky £20 at 4/6 guaranteed
“Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1700 – two bets inrunning – unaccounted)
(Good day yesterday – all tennis bets landed and a race bet)
Tennis – Srebotnik beat Goerges £155 at 1.16
Tennis – Wozniacki beat Hrdinova £155 at 1.11
Tennis – Gulbis beat Isner £155 at 1.37
Greyhounds Donc 8:00 Dutch Traps 2 and 4 £155 at 1.2+
Racing Brighton 4:30 Dutch Choreography/Landucci/Tinas Best £155 at 1.35+
Morning tooting can u help me get my head round this pls? The barking bets today average out at approx 1.23 approx £184.00 return to a £775.00 stake. The bet will stand one loser and still make a profit does this explain why you are picking 5 rather than increasing the stake and doing 3 or 4 ...sorry if this is me being a D.H but I just struggle with the idea of getting five right on a regular basis even though the odds are so tight....ps keep it going your site is a daily must view for me ....Jonah
ReplyDeleteHi Jonah. In essence all the barking bets are trying to do is find an edge that seems to exist at this end of the market.
ReplyDeleteI don't aim for a daily return, so the number of bets is really random/decided on by opportunities I uncover. I found in the early weeks I was doing too many bets and when I was more unforgiving in whether to include a bet or not the results improved.
Week 4 I had 32 wins from 40 bets - not good enough to make a profit. The last three weeks have been 10/11; 19/20 and 13/14. Much better.
There will probably be more than usual bets this week because the early rounds of a major tennis tournament should include more mismatches.
The average price of bets is around the 1.2 mark. And so far the strike-rate is around the 87% mark. And there's the 'edge'. However, it obviously only takes a few bad results to blow that to pieces, as you need to maintain such a high strike rate for this to work.
Hopefully the staking/banking strategy means that, assuming one can get ahead of the game, (as we have done), one should be able to cope with the shit when it hits the fan.
We'll see! I'll be honest and say I thought I'd have given this experiment up by now and am amazed by the success so far, and half waiting for reality to bite back.
Even if/when that happens I have found that winning a slew of bets each day does wonders for your self confidence, which then helps with the other funds.
Hope that clears the mist a little.
Thanks for that I see where u are coming from now....As it happens I did my usual yesterday using A Massey ratings and my own little system and although I didnt back them outside the p/pot I had nine winners from 12 races between Bev and Brighton !!!!!Nice winner with I,m so Lucky as well ...keep em coming .....Jonah
ReplyDelete