Racing - Irish National

I had a cracking weekend in Dublin for my fortieth birthday that included a very hungover trip to Fairyhouse for the Irish National. That's as close as I've come to the winner though!

Fairyhouse 3:55
Kings Advocate 10/1
Dix Villex 12/1
Patsy Hall 16/1
All in the Stars 16/1
Juveigneur 20/1
Distant Thunder 20/1
Whyso Mayo 20/1
Cloudy Lane 20/1
Well Tutored 20/1
Nine de Sivola 20/1
Cane Brake 33/1
Butlers Cabin 33/1
Gazzas Girl 33/1
Mac Three 33/1

As you can see my prices are all over the place compared to the bookies. That's often the case in wide open handicaps where a difference of one or two per cent, plus the overround can make the differences look big. It's illusory though. The difference between 16/1 and 66/1 is roughly the same as that between Evens and 5/4. The only difference is that the 5/4 shot is much more likely to win than the 66/1 one. This is a concept some 'value' students struggle with.

Anyway, I'll play my front four - I've obviously found something to make me price them so, albeit simply being Ruby riding, or that they are one-time occupants of my virtual stable.

Kings Advocate 2pts win at 11/1
Dix Villex 2pts win at 20/1
Patsy Hall 2pts win at 33/1
All in the Stars 2pts ew at 40/1

Football - Bank Holiday Monday

Top and bottom apart, the rest of these are more "silly season" games.

Bolton 5pts beat Everton at 5/4

Norwich 5pts beat West Brom at 7/4

C Palace (away) 5pts beat Stoke at 10/3

Huddersfield 5pts beat Blackpool at 7/4

Grimsby 5pts beat Wycombe at 6/4

Wrexham 5pts beat Notts Co at 6/4

Racing - Saturday 7th April

I was 45 yesterday. Forgot about it until past lunch-time!



On the day he reached forty-five
My father said to his third wife
"What a great day to be alive.
Today is the first day of the second half of my life".

A touching good story, but wait.
He was dead by forty-eight.
And now I hear the hooves of forty-five,
It is a good, good day to be alive.



Not particularly a good day for betting though...


Kempton 3:20
Tabadul 6/1
Futun 13/2
Celtic Spirit 13/2
Royal jet 12/1
Weightless 16/1
Quince 16/1
Active Asset 16/1
Charlie Tokyo 16/1
All the Good 25/1

Not ever been a good race for me. However, this morning Pricewise and I seem to be in rare agreement, these days at least. Futun looks potentially a class above these and Celtic Spirit's race over course and distance behind Acrobatic could hardly read any better. With plenty of pace looking likely Futun should be able to settle and the winner should come late and wide.
Given pricewise's terrible run this jumps season the prices are holding up this morning.

Futun 4pts win at 10/1
Celtic Spirit 4pts win at 10/1
(chuck in a small forecast)


Kempton 3:50
Charlie Cool 4/1
Sri Diamond 5/1
Imperial Star 5/1
Cimyla 10/1
Dansili dancer 10/1
Grand Passion 10/1
Nakheel 10/1

Charlie Cool and Sri Diamond would probably be the other way round in betting but for Jamie Spencer seemingly switching rides. The suspicion is that Sri Diamond, withdrawn from Winter Derby last week, isn't tip-top. The market could be all over the place later. Imperial Star looks the one who could be better than this class. I'll play. Enthusiasm is tempered by him from the Gosden stable (improve for run) and by him being longest with Corals.

Imperial Star 5pts win at 7/1+


The Haydock races look very tricky with Spring ground and overraced horses. I'll be treading very carefully.

Football - Saturday 7th April

It looks like the start of the silly season, judging by the number of bets I've come up with.

For newbies, this refers to the notion that a team with something to play for (relegation/promotion) will over perform and a mid-table team with nothing to play for will underperform. Statistics show this to be a myth. However, the bookies still adjust their odds towards the end of the season to take this into account. This is partly because they fall for the myth themselves, but mainly because they are aware the punters will.

See if you can spot the ones below that fall into this situation.

(Friday) Chester 5pts beat Darlington at 7/4

Arsenal 5pts beat West Ham at 1/2 (!)

Blackburn 5pts beat Aston Villa at 11/10

Coventry 5pts beat QPR at Evens

C. Palace 5pts beat Preston at 7/4

Ipswich 5pts beat Barnsley at Evens

Crewe (away) 5pts beat Chesterfield at 9/4

Millwall 5pts beat Nottm Forest at 2/1

Huddersfield (away) 5pts beat Oldham at 9/2

Rochdale (away) 5pts beat Bury at 17/10

US Masters Golf

I'd love to unearth a big priced beauty for you but frankly at the prices I'm going the other way.

Tiger Woods is now 7/4 and I thought 6/4 was fair to be honest.
5pts win at 7/4

Mickelson is touching 2/1 for a place on the exchanges - call it 15/8.
5pts place at 15/8

Premiership Relegation

I've just been through the remaining fixtures applying my ratings. For all the speculation to the contrary the figures make it seem impossible for West Ham and not much better for Charlton. I have the latter finishing 4pts away from safety, and that's only if Fulham have a nightmare run-in.

They definitely look a decent price this morning. Save on Fulham at 16s if need be.

Charlton 10pts relegated at 5/6

Racing - Saturday 31st March

Ascot 3:05
Boychuk 4/6
Gentleman Jimmy 9/2
Always Waining 9/2

Gentleman Jimmy always seems well backed. He jumped badly when I backed him at Ascot last time, but he does have a big weight advantage. I can't get excited but may dabble late on.


Ascot 4:15
Bishops Bridge 5/1
Tamarinbleu 6/1
Bohemian Spirit 7/1
Kalca Mome 16/1
Magic Sky 16/1
Misty Dancer 16/1

A right bunch of dodgepots (and I'd include Tamarinbleu in that). Bishops Bridge is solid, but at the prices yet again I'm rowing in with Bohemian Spirit. He has collected once this year, but cost me others. Rose Davidson always likely to pull defeat out of the claws of victory as well, so will also find an ew double.

Bohemian Spirit 5pts win at 14/1 (12/1 ok).


Ascot 5:25
Warningcamp 4/1
Motorway 6/1
Predator 11/1
Earth Man 11/1
Romany Prince 20/1
First Row 20/1

The front two look unexposed and fresh and that's good enough for me to at least play late on them both.


Newcastle 3:55
Rio Riva 7/1
Gentlemans Deal 7/1
Very Wise 11/1
Tanzanite 11/1
My Paris 16/1
Raptor 20/1
Bolodenka 20/1
Crooked Throw 20/1
Granston 20/1
Rain Stops Play 20/1
Zero Tolerance 33/1
Yarqus 33/1
Blythe Knight 33/1

Typical Lincoln. I've been with Pricewise in being all over Rio Riva for this ante post (16s and down). And despite worries about the draw I'm still keen. 8s is still fair if you missed bigger so I'll put up a mythical 5 pointer.

Rio Riva 5pts win at 8/1

Racing - Ascot 30th March

Ascot 2:55
Royal Shakespeare 5/4
Lord Henry 5/4
Woodhouse 11/1

I've been against Royal Shakespeare all season and it's paid dividends. This may be the end of the road but if Lord Henry can get into a decent rhythm in front he could get Shakespeare at it. I'll keep Woodhouse on-side with a point.

Lord Henry 8pts win at 13/8 (6/4 ok).



Ascot 4:05
Rakalackey 7/2
Ballyfinney 4/1
Kitski 9/2
Dream Alliance 7/1
Bengo 7/1

The Irish raider merits attention. In fact there's an Irish raider in each of the first three races covered here - I'll do a 1pt treble just in case they wipe the floor with us. Ferdy Murphy is very hard to pin down but taken at face value he wants Kitski to win here to get him into the Irish National. His Thyestes Chase form is noteworthy and despite being in and out, and weak this morning, I'm inclined to play.

Kitski 4pts win at 13/2+


Ascot 4:40
The Dark Lord 8/1
Supreme Catch 8/1
Eljays Boy 8/1
Free Gift 8/1
he's The Gaffer 8/1
Stern 8/1
Sky Warrior 8/1
Forest Leaves 8/1

Ok, so really I should have tweaked these around the margins to make it look like a proper tissue. Tough - they all have chances and failings. I'll probably play 3pts on the race taking the double figure priced horses.


Ascot 5:15
Abragante 4/1
Minella Tipperary 11/2
Mikado 9/1
Nobel 9/1
Make it a Double 9/1

Another sketchy tissue. Not keen on the race. May dabble with the last two, depending on how I'm feeling by the end of the day.

Weekend Football

Burnley 5pts beat Luton at Evens

Wolves 5pts beat Southampton at 5/4 (11/10 Ok)

Bristol City 5pts beat Nottm forest at 5/4

Millwall 5pts beat Swansea at 6/4 (7/5 ok)

Boston 5pts beat Bury at 6/5

Racing - Ssaturday 24 March

Not an inspiring day.

Newbury 2:25
Alderburn 8/1
Out The Black 8/1
Brumous 8/1
Kenzo 111 12/1
Nirvana Swing 12/1
Alexanderthegreat 12/1
latimers Place 25/1
Avitta 25/1
Merchants Friend 25/1
Harrycone Lewis 25/1

Open race. Prices suggest no action. May dabble at late odds, but for here, no bet.


Lingfield 3:15
Alfie Flits 11/2
Blue Bajan 11/2
Gentlemans Deal 11/2
Cimyla 9/1
Cusoon 9/1
Illustrious Blue 11/1
Orchard Supreme 12/1
Grand Passion 20/1
Mighty 20/1

I took the 12s on Alfie Flits earlier in the week. He looks short now for a horse with a lot to prove over the distance! A sand-playing friend likes Gentleman's Deal if he grabs the race by the scruff of the neck, and Cimyla should there be no pace. Orchard Supreme is in my stable and has done well by me this winter. I'll play 1pt ew or maybe place only betfair on him nicking a place. Can't really recommend anything this morning though.


Lingfield 3:50
Border Music 6/1
Maltese Falcon 6/1
King Orchisios 6/1
Fyodor 7/1
Qadar 9/1
Exccusez Moi 9/1
Woodnook 9/1
Celtic Mill 20/1

There's definitely a way into this race if you believe King Orchisios and Maltese Falcon are going to cut each others throats vying for the lead from wide draws. Finding a horse to profit isn't obvious to be honest. However my eye keeps being drawn to Woodnook, if Egan can conjure up a late run from the inside draw. Qadar could also stay on late but it would need to be carnage up front for him to get there in time over 5f.

Woodnook 4pts win at 16/1+

Racing - Friday 23rd March

Newbury 3:15
Petitjean 6/4
Black Hills 11/2
Pretty Star 8/1
Art Virginia 8/1
Always Waining 8/1
Monteforte 12/1

Petitjean is in my "stable" and has done really well this year. Up a stone on a course that I'm not sure ideally suits and he could be vulnerable here. I'm not keen on deserting him but can afford to miss him winning at 6/4. I'll play in some small way, concentrating on my front two to my normal 3pts, but for here - no bet.


Newbury 5:00
Fleet Street 6/1
Priors Dale 6/1
Kanad 7/1
Ellerslie Tom 9/1
Iffy 9/1
Anticipating 9/1

The front two look vulnerable and indeed all the runners have some doubts about them. 2m on good ground suits Kanad perfectly and his Ludlow form shows up well. On the other hand this track may be a bit galloping and he was pulled up last time. Even so, he looks long this morning if you're of a forgiving mind. I think I'll play.

Kanad 5pts win at 14/1+

Weekend Football - 23-25th March

Friday:
Mansfield 5pts beat Macclesfield at 11/10 (best football bet of weekend - Evens acceptable)

Saturday:
Bournemouth 5pts beat Tranmere at 13/8+

Millwall (away) 5pts beat Port Vale at 11/5 (2/1 acceptable)


Sunday:
MK Dons 5pts beat Walsall at 5/4

Welcome

I've noticed an increase in hits this week, so welcome to any old Reigatians who have popped in for a look around after my article the other week.

I imagine to a non-gambler a lot of what is here appears to be in a foreign language. Indeed, someone e-mailed me to ask me what they should be doing if they wanted to follow the recommendations.

I'd say there's three approaches normally adopted.

1) The fun approach. Some people drop in on the bigger days. The Grand National, Derby, FA Cup final and such like. Just to see what I'm backing as an aid for their annual flutter.

2) The "intuitive" approach. Plenty of people use this as another source of information. They wander the internet collecting as many opinions as possible and take or leave what I offer. Some close friends like to back what they consider to be my strongest bets. They seem to decide on this in a rather haphazard way but some of them do extraordinarily well at picking the winners and avoiding the losers!

3) The methodical approach. It is certainly possible and profitable to follow the selections blind. Somebody asked me how much they should be staking per "point". That is of course entirely up to them, their savings and attitude to risk. I suggested to one friend who wanted to have a daily flutter that she set aside a modest £500 and bet £1 per point. That's actually a slightly more aggressive stance than I take (taking stake as a proportion of the fund). It's also pretty much where I started from 10 years ago - small acorns and all that.

To profit you need to take at least the price recommended. I can't stress this enough. The picks in themselves at any price WILL NOT make you a profit. The margins in this game are tight and you need to be getting as close to the best price available as possible. For a small-time player this can be difficult. I have access to well over 30 betting accounts all over the place to get best prices. Probably the best solution is to sign up to www.betfair.com Unfortunately the place is very confusing and not a little daunting for the novice punter. Instead try www.oddschecker.com as a site to direct you to best prices. Or just open a Ladbrokes account but only bet if you can get at least the price I recommend. This will reduce the bets you make.

I nearly always post in the mornings, so lunch-time is probably the best time to drop in.

From now on, to help any novices I will add two things to my recommendations. Firstly I will indicate where I think this is a really good bet for the fun bettor, or where I think it offers exceptional value. And secondly, I will suggest a minimum price for those unable to shop around.

Any questions, leave a comment. Or if too embarrassed to do that, drop me a line.

Finally, remember that I have some terrible losing runs!

Racing - Weds 21st March

Lingfield 4:00
Bible Lord 3/1
Gentleman Jimmy 11/2
Coach Lane 11/2
The Hardy Boy 9/1
Dunsfold Duke 9/1

Bible Lord may not have beaten much last time but he did it well. He looks to be up against some dodgepots here, and Coach Lane who you'd have to worry about the trip, though the fact that Venetia perseveres is interesting. He's weak this morning and may drift. I'll play nevertheless.

Bible Lord 6pts win at 4/1+

Racing - March 20th

Exeter 3:20
Maljimar 7/4
From Dawn to Dusk 11/2
Bring Me Sunshine 10/1
Bowleaze 10/1
Idris 10/1
Wild is the Wind 10/1

A lot of these seem to be coming back off breaks ready for a Spring campaign. They may or may not be tuned up for this. The solid one is Maljimar who I backed when winning nicely at Newbury and I'm inclined to follow him until beaten, even if he isn't strictly value on my tissue.

Maljimar 5pts win at 7/4



Warwick 2:40
Dream Alliance 9/4
Classified 3/1
Patman Du charmil 3/1
Rowlands Dream 4/1

An unsatisfactory tissue. I'm not mad about the favourite who I've backed a couple of times only to see him fly off far too fast and run himself to a standstill. This is probably the day he'll be ridden sensibly and the going will help but I'm not interested at the price. Not helped by Hobbs's record round here with his chasers (0-19). Rowlands Dream hasn't looked up to much and I couldn't back an Alner horse at the moment. Which leaves us with a topweight who looks too old to take to chasing but down in class, and a dodgepot over a distance too far but receiving buckets of weight. Mmmm. The race screams 'leave me alone'! I have a feeling I'll play Classified and Patman as the outsiders of a dodgy bunch of four.

Golf - Madeira

We've been quiet on the golf front, and can't see much reason to get heavily involved this week either.

However, we will throw one name into the hat in a very low-key event.

Robert-Jan Derksen 1pt ew at 28/1

Also, this event has gone to someone who finished in the top 25 the previous year in 7 of the last 8 years. I'm not one for slavishly following stats, but I will be looking at that in-running.

Six Nations

Our only bet on the rugby - Italy to kick most drop goals at 10/1 - looked dead and buried until this afternoon. Then for a while it was a great winner, and then a late England drop gave us an honourable dead-heat and a very decent return on one of the best value bets of the year.

The only downside was the limits placed on the bet by the bookmakers involved!

Racing - Saturday 17th March

Back to normal today!

Uttoxeter 3:15
Nil Desperandum 13/2
Jaunty Times 9/1
GVA Ireland 10/1
Newbay Prop 10/1
Keepatem 12/1
Jaqouille 12/1
Parkinson 16/1
Ladalko 16/1
Take the Stand 16/1
Garryvoe 16/1
In Accord 20/1
The Outlier 33/1
Baron Windrush 33/1

The national fave and some Irish raiders, an interesting renewal. A race I struggle with and looking at my tissue I can see why! What I know about Jaunty Times is he stays and stays and stays and this should be right up his street. Intriguing that Johnson's on the other Daly runner though. I'll do a small forecast and keep In Accord on-side. I can't be doing with my price for Take The Stand. On the other hand he is tumbling down the weights. Umm, let's go for:

Jaunty Times 3pts win at 14/1+
Take The Stand 1pt ew at 66/1


Wetherby 3:35
Loulou Nivernais 9/4
Theatre Knight 11/2
Kerry Lads 9/1
Silver Knight 9/1

A race that revolves around the favourite. I have a feeling that today's the day people are going to get after Loulou, up 40lbs since starting his winning run. But if you saw his last run at Newcastle you'll see he had tons in hand. It's one of those calls and at the price I'm happy to take the chance on him, especially as the contenders are not the type I ever consider backing.

Loulou Nivervais 5pts win at 10/3


Lingfield 4:25
Very Wise 3/1
Happy as larry 7/1
Pagan Sword 11/1
Fusili 20/1

This looks a much weaker race than the one Orchard Supreme won last time. Very Wise was heavily backed that day before getting stuck in the stalls. He was shorter than 3/1 by the off, so I can't help but be drawn by the 3/1 on offer here.

Very Wise 5pts win at 3/1

Cheltenham - Friday

With the losses of January and February well behind me after yesterday's happenings, I have a spring in my step for the last day of the festival. Need to be careful I don't fritter. Luckily I have the two main races well covered ante post.

2:00 Triumph
Lounaos 5/1
Katchit 6/1
Degas Art 10/1
Duty 10/1
Liberate 10/1
Punjabi 10/1
Mountain 11/1
Convincing 33/1
Counting House 33/1
lightning Strike 33/1
Poquelin 33/1

I have the front two nicely tucked away at double figures, and Degas Art and Liberate covered also. I even have a voucher on the winner having had his first start after Jan 1st which looks to cover most the rest. So no need to play this morning. The ground may be the making of Degas Art.


2:35 Brit Hurdle
Wichita Lineman 3/1
Flight Leader 9/2
Black harry 8/1
Hairy Molly 12/1
Chief dan George 25/1
Leading Run 25/1
Head Held High 33/1

I was going to have a real good thump against the favourite here unti the ground dried. Not that I have anything against him, just that I thought Flight Leader should be at least joint favourite. My enthusiasm is tempered slightly, but that run against Inglis Drever and Blazing Bailey doesn't look shabby this morning.

Flight Leader 5pts win at 13/2


3:15 Gold Cup
Kauto Star 2/1
Exotic dancer 4/1
State of Play 7/1
Forget the Past 20/1
Monkerhostin 25/1
My Will 25/1
Idle talk 33/1
Turpin Green 33/1
Cane Brake 50/1

I've been prepared to back Kauto Star at odds on all his races this year. He's the Roger Federer of chasing as far as I'm concerned. The problem is this looks like being his French Open. Track, trip, field-size all conspire to make this a real challenge for him. If I wasn't loaded up on some of the others I'd be really hoping for him to win anyway.

If you think he'll fall there's some juicy each way prices about some of the forgotten horses and plodders. Personally I have a pretty large ante post ew double running onto Exotic Dancer from Inglis Drever, and most the rest of the field well covered.


4:40 Grand Annual.
No prices. I read that Henderson thinks he's left Greenhope a bit short, which is a shame as I took him earlier in the week to repeat last year. I stillthink 20/1+ looks big.

5:20 County Hurdle
I can see why Pricewise is trying to fire his way out of trouble with Arcalis. I all but foresaw that last night and had a piece before the fancy prices went. 20/1 plus is still available though. Pedrobob and Papini at a big price are a couple of many I also like.

Football - Weekend 17th March

I've been struggling to keep on top of the football (and golf) this week. Still, here are 5 for Saturday.

Middlesborough 5pts win at Evens

Norwich 5pts win at 6/4

Preston 5pts win at 8/11

Crewe 5pts win at 2/1

Port Vale 5pts win at 7/5

Cheltenham - Thursday

Not exactly flying so far - a late bet on the drifiting Burntoakboy saved my bacon yesterday and that Ezabayin bet is all that's keeping me ahead. Today isn't exactly the day to get going either with four ridiculous races. - which I won't bother to bore you with the tissues - suffice to say they are wide open.

2:35 Ryanair
Monets Garden 3/1
Taranis 7/2
Racing Demon 8/1
Our Vic 7/1
Too Forward 10/1
Thisthatandtother 20/1

Given my antipathy towards Racing Demon and Our Vic here there should be juice and I think it lies in the form of Taranis. These horses that love the track and trip are always worth siding with. Trying to give 10lbs to Exotic Dancer looks good now too, and he gets the allowances here as well. Monets Garden is a good horse but his popularity always counts against him value-wise, especially as he's failed on the big occasion a few times now.

Taranis 6pts win at 9/2


3:15 World Hurdle
Inglis Drever 4/1
Mighty Man 4/1
Black Jack Ketchum 7/1
Blazing Bailey 7/1
Kasbah Bliss 9/1
Overstrand 16/1

Just as well I'm not a bookie on those prices. BJK could make me look silly but I'm used to that - ask Denman! I've always been a big fan of Inglis and despite his weakness will stick with him - on ante post also, as I am with Kasbah Bliss, (and Temoin - a piece of nonsense I blame Pricewise for). If an outsider were to spoil the party Overstrand's trainer has proven he has something up his sleeve. Anything but Black Jack then!


The other races:
2:00 I can hardly cross any out so competitive is this. That said New Little Brick looked a wonder horse at Sandown and only has to give a stone or so to the "plot" horses. The one lurker I'll throw a dart at is L'antartique ew at 28/1

4:00 Opera Mundi, as Nicholls says, looks like an unexposed chaser taking on thoroughly exposed horses. 5/1 looks skinny enough though. I can't get excited about anything else though. Gallant Approach looks to have been laid out for another crack at this.

4:40 Gungadu - it doesn't look like Harry's playing up his million. Good horse, can jump left or right or indeed through, but has an engine. Ground probably quick enough. I thought he was struggling to get home at Newbury last time. Enough chinks. Finding anything to take him on with isn't easy though - Nine De Savola, Miko De Beuchene and Not Left Yet possible.

5:20 Pertemps isn't my race but I get stuck in every year anyway. This year's two are at least both genuine and proven on the course. Monolith and Material World.

Cheltenham - Wednesday

2:00 Ballymore Novices
Aran Concerto 5/2
Catch Me 7/1
Silverburn 7/1
Du De regniere 8/1
My Turn Mow 8/1
Scotsirish 9/1
Tidal Bay 16/1

I won't be finding another 400/1 winner in this one, but I am on Willie Mullins again, having taken Scotsirish at 25/1 a while back. He would also set off a big Mullins treble for today so here's to travelling hopefully! The ground is good and getting faster. Ex-flat horses are back in the game. If I was to add to my portfolio late on Catch Me and Duc De Regniere would be most likely. Scotsirish is still just about backable this morning though so I'll add a fictional bet for the blog's sake.

Scotsirish 3pts win at 14/1


2:35 Royal Sunalliance Chase
Denman 9/4
caillan Alainn 7/1
Snowy Morning 8/1
Ungaro 8/1
Dom D'Orgeval 9/1
Turko 9/1
Aces Four 25/1
Patsy Hall 25/1

I've been opposing Denman all season. And am now regretting it! Harry Findlay has forced the price down to an absurd level - good luck to him, but I had to play my prices. I now have a stack of vouchers on most of those named. At this morning's prices there are still two that look too big to me. Turko I've liked all year, despite the jumping, and Ungaro for me has just about the best form on show and the ground looks to have come right. I don't need to go in again, but as above I'll pretend I have for the blog.

Ungaro 3pts win at 12/1
Turko 3pts win at 20/1



3:15 Queen Mum
Well chief 6/4
Newmill 7/2
Voy Per Ustedes 6/1
Ashley Brook 12/1
Dempsey 16/1
Justified 20/1

Newmill owes me nothing and I'm on at 6s. Dempsey was actually my bigger bet last year before his fall, and I've kept him on-side again at 40s. Ashley Brook also sems to be in my portfolio at worse than this morning's odds and to be honest I can't see it. Well Chief probably has this sewn up though so I'm in no rush to go in again oppsoing him. And if he fails Alan King does wonderfully well preparing his stable stars.


4:00 Coral Cup
No worthwhile tissue. However I'm going to play the Henderson horses here. I thought All Star would be the third-string, but he looks first-string on jockey bookings which is intriguing, and the way Henderson fires them in year after year at Cheltenham, and with the ground coming right... Forecasts and tricasts and all.

Rose Davidson makes me smile every time she rides and made me a small fortune a couple of seasons ago so who am I to desert Rayshan at 66/1 each way?


4:40 Kim Muir
Again no worthwhile tissue - something like 20/1 each of 14, but I do have Darby Wall as clear favourite based on his two course wins on good going. He's been kept to shorter since and will do for me with Nina up in a hopelessly open race. I have a small sum on at 50/1 and think I'll top up this morning.

Football 12th March

Not sure how I've found time to do this and it may have been a rushed mistake but there are four Championship matches tonight worth playing in.

Leicester 5pts beat Leeds at Evens

Luton 5pts beat Hull at 13/10

Preston 5pts beat Ipswich at 10/11

Southampton 5pts beat Cardiff at 11/10

Cheltenham - Tuesday

A strange first day. Two rubbish races at the end and solid markets in the first three where I am already pretty much committed.

2:00 Supreme Novices
Amaretto Rose 3/1
De Soto 9/1
Granit Jack 9/1
Hide the Evidence 9/1
Tipperary All Stay 11/1
De valira 12/1
Kicks for Free 25/1
Orbit O'Gold 25/1
Rindoon 25/1
Tyson 25/1
Wins Now 25/1

It'll be interesting to see just how tired they get here. I have an antepost voucher on Amaretto Rose at 8s, Hide The Evidence at a disappointing 10s, and Osana at 33s (oops). I also have Tyson for pennies at 70s and Ebazaiyan at 400s for all the good it will do me!

Looking at this morning's prices there does seem to be a play on one either side of the water, on horses who need forgiving a run, which I've pretty much done in my pricing.

De Soto 3pts win at 16/1
Tipperary All Star 3pts win at 20/1+


2:35 Arkle
Fair Along 3/1
My Way de Solzen 4/1
Don't Push It 7/1
Buena Vista 11/1
Lennon 20/1
Twist Magic 20/1
Tidal Fury 20/1
Jack the Giant 20/1

I have Fair Along at 10s, (and Twist Magic and Lennon at prices that look average now). As long as the ground isn't too bad I don't see a reason to desert Fair Along. He bounded up the hill when he beat My Way de Solzen at Sandown and all being well he'll repeat the feat here. I think the 7/2 available is fair and you may yet get better if he drifts. I'll admit in my mind's eye I see something coming and beating him on the run-in which is why I'll probably stick with my 10s and hope rather than diving in again.


3:15 Champion Hurdle
Detroit City 9/4
Hardy Eustace 11/4
Brave Inca 9/2
Iktitaf 20/1
Asian Maze 20/1
I won't tell you what price I have Iktitaf at, suffice to say it's single figures. And I still think he could surprise them! In reality this race's been done to death. I priced this up a week ago like this, which meant I was able to have a decent bet on Hardy Eustace at 5s, which was definitely too long. He's the best hurdler, has the T-shirt and was giving a strange ride in the non-race against Detroit City. The latter may well beat him today and I'd cheer him if he did. No bet this morning.



4:00 WH Chase
Little Brick 7/1
Juveigneur 10/1
New Alco 10/1
Rambling Minster 10/1
D'argent 12/1
Heez a Dreamer 16/1
Irish Raptor 16/1
Heltornic 20/1
Distant Thunder 20/1
Lacdoudal 33/1
Commercial flyer 33/1
Mon Mome 33/1
Gallant Approach 33/1
All in the Stars 50/1

All the old faves here. New Alco is in most of my each way multiples. The only price that stands out this morning is D'argent. Taking New Alco's price as a guide you'd have to say he's wrongly priced. Of course you have to forgive last time out, but frankly I thought that was just too far. He was strong in the betting when he won and is noticeably weak this morning. It may be that he was primed for just the one run. Still, at 33/1 I can afford to have a throw. I think I'll avoid each way - 13 short-listed and he was pulled up last time. May live to regret it though!

D'Argent 3pts win at 33/1

The calm of the evening.

In the eighties and nineties, when I was still a mug or enthusiastic amateur, and lived in Bristol, I used to attend all three days of the festival. And do all the usual stuff. And at the end of the week I'd work out in horror how much money I'd lost. And then start planning the following year's attendance.

I worked in an office in those years and I'd usually take the week off work, and I can safely say today - the Monday - always used to be one of my favourite days of the year. The beauty of travelling hopefully over the reality of arriving. I'd carefully arrange all my ante post betting vouchers - full though they were of dead runners, non runners, runners in the wrong race, and just hopeless runners. And dream of what was to come.

There was a Tuesday ritual as well. After the Champion Hurdle each year I would offer up all those (now losing) slips to the god of Cleeve Hill.

In the early nineties I once went three whole years without backing a single winner. Not one. Which I think you'll agree is a pretty impressive effort. One year I had three sphincter-tightening bets on one Wednesday (always my favourite day). They all came second. And I had busted a bank it had taken me all year to amass.

I was staying with my brother-in-law in a house on Cleeve Hill above the racecourse, and for two hours I sat in the darkness with a hipflask. Shaking. I then threw my notebook away - the one I'd started in October the year before - the one that contained all six winners of the Sun Alliance by November. I hurled it off the hill towards the track, and vowed there and then that I'd stop betting like a mug and learn how to beat the game.

And here I am nigh on 15 years later. Full-time. Not attending as I need to be here picking the prices; not enjoying a day's holiday and its sweet anticipation; not getting ready to bet like a fool and party like an irishman. Is it worth it? Of course it is!

For what it's worth I think I probably attended during the golden years. The addition of the fourth day was based on greed and has thrown the festival off of its perch as the almost perfectly designed sporting experience.

After the horrors of January and February, this week is looking pretty critical to my year's profits. I already have plenty (too many) vouchers in play. Some races I look to be in a good position - Supreme Novices and the Arkle for example, whereas in others I'm already in a mess (The Royal and Sun Alliance - historically my best race).

On Wednesday last year I had a day to remember. Nicanor was a small winner to set me off, I then collected on two 33/1 vouchers when Star de Mohaison and Newmill won, and followed it up with You're Special at 40/1. Not a day to come around again any time soon. But here's hoping!

Racing - Weekend 10th March

I think I'll keep my powder dry Saturday for Cheltenham.

I have some fancy ante post vouchers but I have to say I don't have any strong feelings about any horse this year. Looking at current prices I do seem to keep on looking at the same names as decent each way shouts. With non runner no bet concessions, let's have a fun foursome, at prices with a pleasing symmetry.

Osana - Supreme Novices 10/1

Scotsirish - Ballymore Novices 10/1

New Alco - WH Chase 10/1

Monolith - Pertemps 10/1

6 x half point ew doubles
1 x half point ew treble

Football - Weekend 10th March

I think I may well play Blackburn and Plymouth in the FA Cup, but will stick to the ratings for on here.

Millwall 5pts beat Carlisle at Evens

Scunthorpe 5pts beat Nottingham Forest at 5/4

Rochdale 5pts beat Darlington at 6/4

Wolves 5pts beat WBA at 6/4

Racing - Wincanton 8th March

Wincanton 4:25
Petitjean 13/8
Le Rochelais 9/1
Supreme Catch 9/1
Alphabetical 10/1
Gastornis 10/1

Rock solid favourite. Very impressive winning over the course first time out, and caught two tartars thereafter. The remainder all have doubts.

Petitjean 6pts win at 2/1

Monthly Summary

February wasn't as brutal as January, but still a major disappointment on the racing front. Cheltenham is shaping up as a critical week. Given that racing stats have only been serious on here since the start of the year, when I left escorial, they have had a terrible effect on the blog's profit line. That golden 10% looks a distant memory, and it'll take some work to get back there.


Football - overall
Out 1584
In 1701
% returns 107%


Racing - jumps season
Out 888
In 776
% returns - 87%


All bets since inception
Out 2948
In 3008
% returns 102%


All bets 2007
Out 494
In 416
% returns 84%

Racing - Saturday 3rd March

I have only listed the races where I've found early morning bets.

Newbury 2:10
Officier De Reserve 6/4
Maljimar 3/1
Glimmer of Light 9/1
Wake Up Smiling 9/1

The Nicholls horse was impressive enough Monday and you get the feeling he fully expects to win this. The prices overly reflect this confidence though and Maljimar looks the one who should be shorter. There is a hint that he may keep something for himself but I haven't seen that as yet personally.

Maljimar 6pts win at 4/1


Newbury 3:15
Flying Enterprise 4/1
Kalca Mome 6/1
No Full 7/1
Nozic 7/1
Supreme Prince 8/1
Marcel 8/1
Madison du Berlais 20/1
Fundamentalist 20/1

A race to get stuck into - given Nozic's price and that I took Flying Enterprise mid-week at 8s. He remains my (and everyone else's) idea of the winner, but with that in the bag, I am now able to play again on the remaining two who look stand-out prices. Kalca Mome looks to me to be in need of this extra distance now and if this turns into a slog as per the Racing Post Chase last week he looks like the Simon in the pack. No Full only needs to be forgiven his last run and his trainer may finally be putting some consistent form together.


Kalca Mome 4pts win at 9/1
No Full 4pts win at 13/1


Newbury 3:50
Orcadian 9/2
French Saluaie 11/2
Paddys turn 11/2
Picot de Say 11/2
White on Black 7/1
Blaeberry 9/1

I wouldn't normally back early in a race like this, that looks very open and tricky. However I kept looking at the 8/1 Ladbrokes put up on White on Black. He's not run this season, but the trainer is in top form and says he's raring to go. The challengers aren't exactly frightening. Paddy Power have a guaranteed best price, so I'll dive in early.

White on Black 3pts win at 14/1


Kempton and Kelso both look difficult and the lower grade Nationals have never been good to me. I'll have a go at a very winnable Scoop6 instead.

Football - Weekend 3rd March

Fulham 5pts beat Aston Villa at 11/8

Liverpool 5pts beat Man Utd at 7/4

Plymouth 5pts beat Stoke at 13/10

Port Vale 5pts beat Yeovil at 7/4

Hartlepool 5pts beat Hereford at 8/13

Sunday - Birmingham 5pts beat Cardiff at 10/11

Monday - Preston 5pts beat Southampton at 5/4

Mideweek football (and golf)

I must be going mad doing this but the ratings compel me!

Rotherham 5pts beat Swansea at 2/1


This week's Johnnie Walker golf:

Dyson 1pt ew at 40/1

Racing 24th Feb

I see Escorial has a new tissue man, and very good he is too, judging by the trailer. Far better than I've been since I left that's for sure!! I wish him well.


Kempton 2:35
Natal 7/2
Good Spirit 4/1
Ursis 4/1
Classified 7/1
Dunsfold Duke 7/1
Il Duce 11/1
Yes Sir 16/1

Tricky little affair, especially with the ground conditions. Natal does look vulnerable, Good Spirit gets a handy allowance, and Ursis jumped really well last week. However, I'll play the small stable outsider who looks a promising sort - and I imagine his price would be entirely different if trained by Nicholls.

Dunsfold Duke 3pts win at 10/1


Kempton 3:10
Lucifer Bleu 9/4
Celtic Son 5/1
Limerick Boy 5/1
Lacdoudal 12/1
Reveillez 12/1
Simon 12/1
Cornish Sett 25/1
Puntal 25/1
Without a Doubt 25/1

A very disappointing field. We've been on Lucifer Bleu the last two times at the bigger prices, and this looks a decent time to abandon him! Simon is also in our stable but would see him plugging on one-paced. I took Lacdoudal for old times sake in the week but the ground has done for him. You need a leap of faith to back Celtic Son, he's got a timeform squiggle for god's sake. Yet....today has the feeling of being the day, and I sense the stable see him as more likely than Lucifer. Probably wrong.

Celtic Son 5pts win at 8/1



Kempton 4:15
Fast Forward 2/1
Limited Edition 5/2
Made in Montot 7/1
Fork Lightning 11/1

I'll bet that the market has the front two the wrong way round.

Fast Forward 4pts at 9/4


Newcastle 3:30
Teeming Rain 5/1
Silver Knight 10/1
Lordofourown 11/1
Nil Desperandum 11/1
Datito 20/1
Chabrimal Minster 20/1
What a Native 25/1

The fave doesn't exactly scream at me, and the two good horses are going to have to lug a load of weight in unraceable ground. I have to look towards the bottom for anything with any sign of lie in them. Chabrimal may have a smidgeon of improvement left andf Datito loves heavy ground racing fresh.

Datito 3pts win at 33/1+
Chabrimal Minster 2pts win at 25/1
half pt rev fc




Newcastle 4:35

Blue Splash 4pts win at 11/8

Weekend Football 24/25 feb

Three Premiership matches, which is very unusual, and not usually profitable!

Charlton 5pts beat West Ham at 13/10

Orient 5pts beat Tranmere at 7/4

Blackburn 5pts beat Portsmouth at 13/10

Newcastle (away) 5pts beat Wigan at 9/5

Mid-week Football

We'll avoid the Champions League.

Shrewsbury 5pts beat Notts Co at 5/4

Everton 5pts beat Spurs at 13/10

Racing - Saturday 17th Feb

Ascot 1:10
French Saluaie 7/1
The Real Deal 7/1
Flying Falcon 8/1
Pevensey 8/1
My Immortal 12/1
Overstrand 16/1
Slew Charm 16/1
nation State 16/1
Turtle Soup 20/1
Mahogany Blaze 25/1
Magic Sky 25/1

I'm with Pricewise here - Flying Falcon is lurking menacingly.

Flying Falcon 3pts win at 12/1


Ascot 1:45
Gungadu 4/6
Over The Creek 4/1
According to John 9/1

I think right handed will prove to be the key to Gungadu who has a hell of an engine on him. If money comes for Over the Creek I may be persuaded to back a drifting Gungadu, otherwise no bet.


Ascot 2:20
Monets Garden 6/4
Thisthatandtother 3/1
Cerium 9/1

Monets garden solid if the real horse turns up. However if Thisthatandtother gets any longer 3pts will be going his way.


Ascot 4:10
Misty Dancer 7/2
Marcel 7/2
Gentleman Jimmy 5/1
My World 10/1
Palua 20/1

A lesse of evils race really but I snaffled the early prices about Morrison's horse.

Gentleman Jimmy 3pts win at 8/1


Haydock 1:25
Labelthou 7/4
Material World 7/4
Afrad 7/1
St Matthew 11/1

A match really and I think the market is in danger of under-estimating the one-eyed mare. I'll wait but am prepared to back Material World at anything over 2s.


Haydock 2:00
Cloudy Lane 7/1
Kilbeggan Blade 8/1
GVA Ireland 8/1
Bewleys Berry 9/1
Kelami 12/1
The Outlier 12/1
Mon Mome 16/1
Kandjar Dallier 16/1
Naunton Brook 16/1
Leading Man 20/1
Heltornic 20/1
L'Aventure 25/1

No end of horses with chances. However, I was keen on Cloudy Lane mid-week and took him at 9s overnight almost certain Pricewise was going to pick him. Of today's prices GVA Ireland and Bewleys Berry both appeal, but I'll wait for now.


Haydock 4:55
Bohemian Spirit 5/2
Regal Heights 4/1
Flake 9/2
Madison Du Berlais 9/2
Calatagan 6/1

I really think Bohemian Spirit should be favourite here, not least because the rest of them look likely to cut each other's throats and that's exactly what Spirit likes. The ground is a worry though.

Bohemian Spirit 3pts win at 3/1


Wincanton 1:20
Opera Mundi 4/6
Desert Air 11/2
Ursis 11/2
All Star 9/1

My prices match the market but I can't say I'm happy with them. I certainly wouldn't want to back Opera Mundi at that price over this trip but can't get excited about the others either.


Wincanton 2:30
Lucifer Bleu 7/2
Englishtown 7/2
Black Hills 6/1
Alphabetical 11/1

Not much depth here. I had a stray point on Lucifer Bleu at 50s when he popped up on his reappearance. Whilst I fear the "bounce" (whether it exists or not!), I have to stick with him.

Lucifer Bleu 3pts win at 7/2


Wincanton 3:00
No prices but Kipsigis is in my "stable", and I'm prepared to forgive him his last run. My stable came up with a massive treble on this very day last year, and whilst I don't have a chance of repeating the feat I certainly believe it's a useful approach to have in your bag.

Kipsigis 3pts win at 8/1


Wincanton 3:30
Afsoun 11/10
Straw Bear 11/10

Match - and personally I'd lean towards Afsoun, so if he drifts...


Wincanton 4:00
Little Brick 6/4
My Will 9/4
Preacher Boy 11/2
Napolitain 9/1

All the money for Little Brick , the Grand National talking horse. I was certainly going to make him fave for this getting the weight, but the market may over-react and My Will is a rock solid performer, worth 3pts should he get too much longer.


I have priced up a couple of races at both Uttoxeter and Lingfield but not much doing early doors.

Weekend Football - 17th/18th Feb

Leicester 5pts beat Coventry 11/10

Southmapton 5pts beat Barnsley 1/2

Doncaster 5pts beat Swansea at 5/4

Preston 5pts beat Man City at 17/10

The last two would rate as 3 star bets.

Racing - Friday 16th Feb

Sandown 2:25
Irish raptor 3/1
Schuh Shine 7/2
Mokum 9/1
Tanterari 10/1

Irish Raptor looks the solid one. Not least in that I'm taken that he's in this easier race whilst those he ran against last time are entered up in the bigger races Saturday. Plenty of doubts about the others, despite Schuh Shine's hurdling sequence.

Irish Raptor 3pts win at 7/2



Sandown 3:00
Back Nine 4/5
Whitenzo 6/4

I used to go to this meeting and the other military one that follows it most years. Not for the army obviously, simply because it's a mid-week day out at my local track. I believe I must have seen dear old Alers-Hankey fall at pretty much every fence at the course in that time, and another year on here he is again locking pistols with his arch nemesis Captain Snowden, (Major Ellwood must be off doing something imperial). Whitenzo won this two years ago without even thinking. Not hard to think he can defy the penalties against Back Nine.

Whitenzo 3pts win at 2/1

Indonesian Open - golf

A couple of golfers in a desperate event, and then I'll take a break - back for Sandown Friday.

Simon Dyson 2pts ew at 9/1
Igancio Garrido 1pt ew at 50/1

Racing - Saturday 10th Feb

Newbury 1:35
Denman 4/6
Mr Pointment 7/2
Standin Obligation 7/1

I'm enough of a fool to oppose Mr Pointment here. Probably at least as good as Don't Push It who gave Denman a real race.

Mr Pointment 4pts win at 9/2



Newbury 2:05
Isle De Maurice 6/1
Beare Necessities 6/1
Minella Tipperary 7/1
Maharbal 9/1
Double Dizzy 9/1
Liberthine 20/1
Itsmyboy 20/1
Junkanoo 20/1
Special rate 20/1

One of my top two is very weak, the other very strong. I'll probably back them both late on, but it's a dodgy looking race.


Newbury 3:15
Tarlac 10/1
Acambo 11/1
Papini 11/1
Moores Law 11/1
New Field 11/1
Quatre Heures 11/1
Pedrobob 11/1
Private Be 16/1
Overstrand 25/1
My Immortal 25/1
Rio De Janeiro 25/1
Mister Hight 33/1
Caracciola 33/1
Orcadian 33/1

My ante post portfolio is made up of Tarlac, Pedrobob, Private Be and Rio De Janeiro, and I can't find much else to add this morning. Maybe play around with exactas etc closer to the off.


Newbury 3:50
Ashley Brook 3/1
Well Chief 3/1
Voy Per Ustedes 4/1
Foreman 4/1
Sporazene 16/1

Tricky race this. The ket to me is the weight Ashley and Chief are receiving. Granted one may bounce and the other may be looked after and need the race, but they are the better horses. I think Foreman should be priced the same as VPU, and may add him in late, but for now I'll go with the best horse.

Well Chief 5pts win at 4/1

Racing - Friday 9th Feb

Kempton 3:40
Milan Deux Mille Evens
Laskari 5/1
Mambo Des Mottes 6/1
Mr Boo 13/2
Pardishar 33/1

The favourite's rock solid, the only fear being too many races; Laskari decent but there must be a worry about the trainer's form still; Mambo Des Mottes probably well treated but jumping a worry and the trip. Mr Boo down in class, doesn't have to give away too much weight, but a worry about his absence having dropped out quickly on his last run. His price looks the most tempting. Later on, should 8 stand their ground there are ew options on Mr Boo as well.

Mr Boo 3pts win at 12/1+
Milan Deux Mille 3pts win at 11/10

Football - weekend 10 Feb

Six matches Saturday:

Newcastle 5pts beat Liverpool at 3/1

Reading 5pts beat Villa at 6/5

Coventry 5pts beat Cardiff 8/5

Brighton (away) 5pts beat Brentford at 2/1

Millwall 5pts beat Chesterfield at Evens

Hartlepool 5pts beat Walsall at 13/10

Three of these could be termed as three star bets - Reading, Coventry and Hartlepool.

Racing Saturday 3rd Feb

Sandown 1:35
Chilling Place 7/1
Bohemian Spirit 7/1
Oneway 10/1
Dempsey 10/1
Madison Du Berlais 10/1
Andreas 10/1
Kalca Mome 10/1
Hasty Prince 10/1
Jericho 111 10/1

Not sure what Bohemian Spirit's got to do to be taken seriously - I imagine it's prejudice against Rose Davidson - but she won well enough on him on the course last time. jericho 111 is long this morning for an improving horse at the bottom of the handicap. Of the others I respect Chilling Place, Kalca Mome is an old friend but needs it bottomless, Dempsey is an old friend but I'm sick of him falling and I can't envisage the day I'd back either Andreas or Hasty Prince (there's your forecast!)

Bohemian Spirit 4pts win at 12/1
Jericho 111 2pts win at 20/1
half pt rev fc


Sandown 2:10
Detroit City all the way - especially with Gifford's stable in such poor form.


Sandown 2:40
New Little Bric 6/4
All Star 3/1
Aztec Warrior 7/2
Pretty Star 7/1

The first of two novice chases that look much more open than the prices suggest. This one looks easier to find a bet, as I can oppose the fave on price grounds alone, and have yet to be entirely convinced by Aztec's jumping.

All Star 5pts win at 9/2


Sandown 3:15
Taranis 5/1
Royals Darling 6/1
Accordello 6/1
Oscar Park 8/1
Verasi 11/1
Kasbah Bliss 12/1
Refinement 16/1
Lord Sam 16/1
Lyes Green 16/1

The first of two very tricky handicaps. Reveley has sent a couple of interesting sorts down for them and I'll keep those on-side. This was the first morning in a long time where I've opened the Racing Post and sworn at Pricewise for having tipped horses I was interested in!

Oscar Park 4pts win at 14/1
Accordello 3pts win at 8/1


Sandown 3:50
Flintoff 7/1
Rambling Minster 9/1
Iron Man 16/1
Lord Killeshanra 16/1
Latimers Place 16/1
Yardbird 16/1
Pass me By 16/1

Hard to find a bet. I'll do a double on the two Reveley raiders and also probably keep two previous friends on-side in Flintoff and Latimers Place.


Wetherby 1:50
Allistathebarrista 6/4
Julius Ceasar 13/2
Laertes 12/1

Looks a fairly easy assignment for the favourite.

Allistathebarrista 5pts win at 13/8



Wetherby 2:25
Coat of Honour 7/4
St Matthew 3/1
Wain Mountain 11/2

I can see St Matthew being all the rage against the fave here. That could make Coat of Honour well backable. I'll wait and see.


Wetherby 3:30
Hoh Viss 11/4
Royal Rosa 5/1
Blue Splash 11/2
Heez a dreamer 11/2
Miko De Beauchene 11/2
Omni Cosmo Touch 13/2

I have this much more condensed than the bookies. I keep scratching my head about the longer ones, but guess I'll just have to dive in regardless.

Miko De Beauchene 3pts win at 10/1
Omni Cosmo Touch 3pts win at 14/1
half pt rev fc

Weekend Football

One from each division.

Aston Villa 5pts beat West Ham at 10/11

Leicester 5pts beat Luton at 10/11

Doncaster 5pts beat Carlisle at 5/6

MK Dons (away) 5pts beat Bury at 8/5



For the rugby I came over all patriotic Monday and so at least scooped up some nice prices on England before the Wilkinson inspired rush. The bet that really does catch the eye though is Italy at 10/1 to score most drop-goals. They won this last year, and actually were the only country that really attempted any worth counting. The price just seems plain wrong.
Getting much on probably tricky - say 2pts.

Racing Friday 2 Feb

Chepstow 2:35
Midas Way 13/8
Pass Me A Dime 4/1
Brads House 7/1

Not a very competitive field. I think Midas Way should appreciate the step up in trip, and if he drifts much that's where my last minute money will go.

Racing - Thurs 1st Feb

Wincanton 2:40
Warningcamp 9/2
Kings Signal 9/2
Basic fact 5/1
Earth Man 6/1
Ostrogoth 9/1
Anemix 11/1

My book fairly different to the market. On another day I could be persuaded to get my boots on. I have a feeling I'll wait until late and would be interested in betting either or both my front two against the Jonjo horse (step down in trip dead against) and the Nicholls first-time out this season (trainer not exactly firing in the mid-week winners). I like both my front two - I never need much encouragement to back a Lady Herries runner and Kings Signal was given far too much to do in a much harder race last time out).


Wincanton 3:10
Flying Enterprise 6/4
Trouble at Bay 3/1
Nippy des Mottes 4/1
Priors Dale 11/2

I thought Flying Enterprise should have been fave when winning for us on saturday and think he should be shorter here. Granted this is back to 2m on a quick track with little rest. On the other hand Venetia Williams has been performing wonders with horses under penalties (Maletton, Flintoff etc). Plus the horse is still top of my ratings and yet gets useful weight from Trouble at Bay here. Plus I haven't been overly impressed with with that horse or with Nippy Des Mottes. I see Trading Post have put him up as a lay, but I'll play early and if he drifts (as Flintoff did), I'll top-up late.

Flying Enterprise 6pts win at 2/1

Monthly Summary - Jan

That was a tough month. Next year I've determined I will stay in England for Boxing Day and New Year to keep on top of all the racing and football. Instead I'll go away in January where the racing is just terrible.

It was a very bad time to have a new year resolution about setting up an aggressive fund as well, though at least I realised that early on and tempered things.

It certainly makes the stats look impoverished and if you'll forgive me I won't drag myself through further purgatory by reproducing them in loving detail here.

Suffice to say the overall stats since blog inception now stand at overall returns of 102%. That's somewhat awry of the 110% target and would probably lead you to rightly wonder what the point is! So do I at the moment. However, and this matches Pareto's rule for those interested in such things, in my two years full-time, 80% of my profits can be accounted for by:

a) Two very large winning trebles (both at Wincanton strangely). The winning horses were all tipped here (or rather on escorial at the time) but not the trebles. I nearly always throw a point accumulator at my best selections and would recommend it for those with the bank to stand the long losing runs. Believe me, the wins more than make up for it. I also had a football five-timer, another once a season event worth shooting for.

b) An amazing Cheltenham Festival last year, mainly abetted by some outrageous ante post winners, which of course were also unaccounted on here.

c) Sergeant Cecil on his handicap spree, and backed like an old friend throughout.

On the very big down-side this is the first year I've struggled with reality TV. This used to be a cash cow, but something's changed (the power of the edit has corrupted the producers' heads I think).

Other stats:

Football for the 2007 season continues in good heart (a nice treble completed last night). 114% returns.

The jumps racing season has a lot of work to do (that treble aside). 88% returns.



2007 stats for the blog:
Out 259
In 161
62%
(told you it was a bad month!).

Racing - Weds Jan 31st

Leicester 3:10
Im Spartacus 3/1
You Do The Math 4/1
Sole Agent 9/1
Burntoakboy 9/1
John Forbes 9/1

Evan Williams horses are really not firing and that makes Im Spartacus opposable here. Not that it's easy deciding how - plus this remains my least favourite track. Burntoakboy is out very quickly, off topweight with 1 win from 26 starts. John Forbes remains a probably one-paced maiden. Sole Agent - supposedly badly handicapped says the trainer - looks big at 12/1 plus and he will form part of my strategy nearer the time. For here, no bet.

Mid-week Football

To complete a busy morning's work, here's some mid-week football for you.


Barnsley 5pts beat QPR at 5/4

Derby 5pts beat Burnley at 5/6 (an alarming drift occurring)

Newcastle 5pts beat Aston Villa at 6/5

Dubai Desert Classic Golf

I went for Ernie Els at 6/1 yesterday with a view to laying off the win portion on betfair and riding the 6/4 place element. Happy with that but can't recommend it as a bet here now the price has gone.

My golf syndicate partner insists we give Stenson another chance.

Other than that no bet. Howell looks long for best GB and Ireland player, but until I found out how fit and raring to go he is, it's a no bet.

So, no recommended points this week.

Racing - Tues 30th Jan

Taunton 4:10
Bills Echo 3/1
Stan 4/1

Stan is a tentative bet here. He's always caught the eye as a likely type and his comeback run was the same. Of course you have to forgive his last run and I don't usually go for horses in first-time blinkers, plus he's very weak this morning. Even so, he hasn't exactly got much to beat. Although not short-listed Kosmos Bleu is the sort to pop up when least expected. As the outsider of the field I may take a big price late on. Nicholls/Walsh every chance of banging a few in today.

Stan 3pts win at 5/1

Racing - Saturday 27th

Don't forget I save 3pts for all races closer to the off (including those I've already played in early on), and play a mixture of my prices (late drifters), pressing up, legitimate faves and exotics. This is proving more successful this season than the early price bets, so don't rush in! I've given an idea of what may be on my mind for later.


Cheltenham 1:00
Wichita Lineman 6/4
Tidal Bay 5/2
Zilcash 13/2
Osana 20/1
Massinis Maguire 25/1
Michael Muck 25/1
Carlitos 25/1

There's a possibility Wichita Lineman is better on a flat track. If I was looking for a way into the race (and I'm not sure I am) I reckon it would be Zilcash ew getting all the weight. For now, no bet.


Cheltenham 1:35
Flying Enterprise 3/1
An Accordion 5/1
Character Building 6/1
Ofarel D'Airey 6/1
Yes Sir 12/1
Good Citizen 12/1
Nouveau Maire 16/1
Herecomesstanley 20/1

Flying enterprise has got 4 identical ratings from me as a novice chaser, which I only give to classier animals, and none of the others have got one. Should be favourite for me and although I usually avoid novice handicaps I'll bet here.

Flying Enterprise 4pts win at 10/3



Cheltenham 2:10
Black Jack Ketchum 8/11
Inglis Drever 7/2
Flight Leader 12/1
Blazing Bailey 20/1
Irish Wolf 33/1

I wouldn't ask anyone to oppose BJK. However, Inglis Drever gave me one of my best moments in racing when winning World Hurdle and I'm sentimental enough to give him one last hurrah at 5s, without recommending him here.


Cheltenham 2:45
Our Vic 3/1
Halcon Generladais 4/1
Exotic Dancer 9/2
Neptune Collonges 9/2
Caillain Alainn 6/1

Either of the front two could win this and throw down a legitimate Gold Cup challenge. At the prices though I prefer the next two. Exotic Dancer has done little wrong and a friend has been banging on about his King George performance for weeks. This could well be Neptune Collonges race of the year, and he has conditions to suit.

Exotic Dancer 4pts win at 6/1 guaranteed
Neptune Collonges 4pts win at 7/1


Cheltenham 3:20
Katchit 7/2
Goodbye Simon 11/2
Pauillac 11/2
Predateur 11/2
Mountain 11/2
Pancake 7/1

Cracking race. Here's my notes on Katchit: "Jumps, travels, stays, loves Cheltenham"! That said, there's a pack of chasers here. I could also see myself throwing a couple of points at Pancake.

Cheltenham 3:55
Roman Ark 6/1
Vodka Bleu 6/1
New Alco 6/1
Idole First 6/1
Knowhere 8/1
Le Volfini 8/1
Bold Bishop 8/1
Cousin Nicky 20/1

I think Pricewise got this one right when he said you could back 3 or 4 and still not come close. I took Roman Ark in the week, and will also take a potshot at Bold Bishop - who won here last year and was running on in the Sun Alliance. It's a chancy throw but the price allows it.

Bold Bishop 4pts at 18/1+


Southwell 1:15
Tidal Fury 5/4
Echo Point 6/4
Archie babe 9/1

Think the front two are closer in ability than their run against each other showed, and will take on the favourite here.

Echo Point 6pts win at 15/8


Southwell 1:50
Mr Prickle 3/1
Launde 4/1
Madison Du Berlais 4/1
Ease the Way 9/1
Ela Re 16/1

I'll be keeping Evan Williams' runners on-side here. Mr Prickle is also a legitimate favourite. That siad I'll back a different one early on.

Launde 4pts win at 5/1


Southwell 2:25
Rosses Point 3/1
Mon Mome 11/2
Ever Present 11/2
Sharp Belline 6/1
Simon 11/1
Ardaghey 14/1
nadover 14/1
Umbrella Man 16/1

Rosses Point worthy favourite (though longest with Corals). Ever Present made an impression on me at kelso and I'm on, though weak this morning. Simon is an old favourite I should have given up on by now!

Ever Present 5pts at 10/1+

Football 27th Jan

Only two bets this weekend, avoiding the FA Cup.

And both away teams which is unusual.

Leicester 5pts to beat Cardiff at 7/2

MK Dons 5pts to beat Rochdale at 13/10

Racing Thursday Jan 25th

Fontwell 2:50
Classified Evens
Heez A Dreamer 11/8

I've probably actually got them a little closer to each other in my head than in my prices.

Heez a Dreamer 5pts win at 6/4


Warwick 2:10
Alfasonic 5/2
Dark Corner 9/2
Ile De Paris 6/1
The Last Cast 9/1
Desert Tommy 14/1

Looks uncompetitive race and the front two look solid. Not much juice in backing either or both but I'll probably dabble. For here, no bet.

Racing - Wednesday 24th Jan

Huntingdon 2:00
Royal Shakespeare 7/4
Another Promise 9/4
Rasharrow 9/4

I can't really have Royal Shakespeare as a chaser at all. That said he's already beaten Rasharrow (gets weight now) and Another Promise doesn't look overly tempting back at 2m. All in all disappointing. No bet.



Huntingdon 3:00
Moncadou 11/8
Dream Alliance 2/1
Only Vintage 11/2
Jaunty Times 10/1

I backed Dream Alliance the last twice. He did the job well first time but stopped very quickly in terrible ground last time. Moncadou getting 6lbs off of him should be enough but I wasn't as impressed with his Newbury run as others were. Only Vintage has started off softly softly and on the basis that the step up in trip will actually favour him, the price looks a shade long, though no doubt I'm chasing cars.

Only Vintage 4pts win at 8/1



Catterick 2:10
Thunder Rock 5/2
Welcome to Unos 11/2
The Dukes Speech 9/1
Lucky Duck 9/1
Through the Rye 12/1
Karathaena 14/1

The race revolves around Thunder Rock. Nothing excites me. Lucky Duck is lurking though and I may have a tickle late on.

Golf - Qatar Masters

Fiddling about a bit this week - early season caution - and the prices look right anyway.

Fasth half pt ew at 50/1
Jeev Singh half pt ew at 66/1
Jiminez half pt ew at 40/1

Racing - Tuesday 23rd Jan - Southwell

Southwell 3:40
California Laws 9/4
Wessex 11/2
Waterside 11/2
Prince Tum Tum 7/1
Byron Bay 10/1
Jimmy the Guesser 14/1
Pawan 25/1

California Laws wouldn't have to be that good to beat these, but it's still a step up. The price that stands out is Wessex, presumably because Callan has chosen Waterside. Given his record for placing at Southwell and the shape of the race, an ew bet seems in order. I missed the 8s but 15/2 will do.


Wessex 3pts ew at 15/2

Racing - Saturday 20th Jan

Haydock 12:50
Carthalawn 2/1
Silver Sedge 5/2
Salinas 9/2
Shares 7/1

A bit surprised to see Salinas being backed this morning. A theme today is whether to firgive a horse a bad run last time out. If you do so with Silver Sedge he has probably a favourite's chance here.

Silver Sedge 4pts win at 3/1



Haydock 1:25
Afsoun 6/4
Mounthenry 11/2
Mister McGoldrick 11/2
Arcalis 12/1
Torkinking 12/1
Overstrand 16/1

The pace seems everything in this race with four front runners. In an 8 runner race ideally I'd like to find a horse to come from off the pace to place at a big price. Both Arcalis and Overstrand are possible fits, but with plenty of doubts about them as well. I'll wait for now. No bet.



Haydock 1:55
Turpin Green 6/1
Leading Man 6/1
The Outlier 6/1
Model Son 6/1
Snakebite 6/1
Irish Raptor 6/1
Wild cane Ridge 8/1

That tissue makes it fairly clear how open I reckon this is! Will perhaps know more about the going closer to the race and may fiddle around depending on late prices. For now, no bet.



Wincanton 2:15
Principe Azzurro 5/2
Kaldouas 4/1
Go for One 9/2
No Guarantees 9/2
Mandingo Chief 5/1

Principe Azzurro cost us the other week but I thought he ran really well. He tops my novice chase ratings out of this lot, and I'm hoping he'll get into a rhythm, jump well and expose the techniques of the others, none of whom have looked particuarly fluent.

Principe Azzurro 6pts win at 10/3

Plus a three star bet (I've been fiddling around with staking on this - so just treat it as bet of the day for now).



Wincanton 3:50
Maletton 9/2
Nykel 5/1
Youllbesolucky 7/1
Almost Broke 9/1
Le Jaguar 11/1
Puntal 11/1
Iron Man 16/1
All in the Stars 16/1
out The Black 16/1

Another tricky looking race. Obviously my price for Youllbesolucky is wrong, but I have to punt him having put him in so short. All in the Stars, as you all must know by now is one of my faves having been the last leg of a large treble last year - at Wincanton. I should have deserted him by now but can't stop myself.

Youllbesolucky 4pts win at 14/1+
All in the Stars 2pts win at any price you like - say 50s.


Lingfield 3:10
Fajr 3/1
Marajaa 4/1
Happy as Larry 4/1
Vortex 12/1
Red Spell 11/1

Between the front three I think. fajr solid enough. Marajaa may just be flattered on the run behind Areyoutalkingtome, especially as his trainer was on fire at the time. Happy as Larry ran OK in a tough race last week and back in trip in slightly easier race could get back into winning ways.

Happy as Larry 4pts win at 5/1



Lingfield 3:40
Bonus 3/1
Qadar 11/2
Maltese Falcon 11/2
Saviours Spirit 10/1
Secret Night 10/1
Royal Engineer 20/1?

Qadar looks to have a bot to do in first time blinkers trapped wide though he should get the pace he needs. Maltese Falcon may get taken on for lead to do for him. Bonus looks solid. I'll hope he drifts. For now no bet.



Other three star bet.
Instead of pressing up on Orient to win, I've taken them in the Asian Handicap with draw no bet.

Weekend Football 20 Jan

Ipswich 5pts beat Colchester at 5/4

Wolves 5pts beat Cardiff at Evens

Doncaster 5pts beat Scunthorpe at 11/8

Orient 5pts beat Blackpool at 2/1

Grimsby 5pts beat Darlington at 11/8

Thinking about Orient potentially being three star material.

Racing Weds 17th Jan

Newbury 1:30
opera Mundi 6/4
Don't Push It 7/4
Private Be 9/1
Stowaway 9/1
Only Vintage 20/1

Weather will play a big part. Or a bog part. The weight allowances could be key (and make Stowaway an interesting lurker). Tissue looks right. No bet right now, but one to watch.


Newbury 2:35
Flintoff 7/2
Ice Melted 7/2
Kilty Storm 13/2
Sharp jack 13/2
Tanterrari 11/1
King of Gothland 11/1

Interesting little race. Tissue looks solid, as do front two. Kilty Storm with a lot of weight, and I'd worry about Sharp Jack after a desperate race at Wetherby that seemed to pull the guts out of Jungle Jinks for one next time out. Mind you I thought the same about the Welsh National lot last week. Flintoff available at a touch longer than should be - I'll take an early position.

Flintoff 3pts win at 4/1 guaranteed.

Golf and Victor Chandler Chase

I forgot to put up my golf bets - usually place them late Monday/early Tuesday and not only have the prices gone but Jeremy Chapman has copied me in the Racing Post!

Stenson 2pts win at 14/1 (now 12s)
Jeev Singh (of course) 1pt ew at 50/1 (now 40s)
Jeev Singh - top Rest of World - 1pt win at 10/1


Also, it's been raining all night and morning here - proper rain, flooding through the corrugated roof on my sideway. I'm like Kalca Mome in the Victor Chandler Chase, given poor conditions and the race may well cut up even more badly. I'll throw the dice early.

Kalca Mome 3pts ew at 9/1

Football - mid-week Jan 16th

A match to get stuck into tonight.

Scunthorpe (away) 5pts beat Cheltenham at 6/4


An interesting (to me anyway) aspect to this match is that I want to oppose Scunthorpe based on ratings at the weekend against Doncaster. It will be interesting how (if at all) the outcome of thsi match affects both my odds and those available.

Update

Well, I'm having a terrible January!

Last night our sneaky 40/1 pokes for the Superbowl (Baltimore) lost the last game they needed to win for us to collect ew.

Racing yesterday was horrid, and my fault because I could have predicted that before the off. The only races I liked were the all weather ones and they proved profitable. The racing in January and February is so bad mid-week that I seem to make the mistakes of (a) getting suckered into really bad races during the week because I feel I should be doing something and (b) over-compensating for the lack of turnover by attacking Saturday's card with too much verve for the quality on show or given the conditions. If there was one time of the year when I wouldn't mind a few weeks steady work this is probably it.

My Christmas break also seems to be a factor. Until then I was on top of all the racing - in particular the novice chases. However, I seem to have dropped off the pace over the break and have overlooked some basic form-book stuff. Christmas is such a busy time for racing (and football) I'm not sure I can afford to jet off to sunnier climes as usual if I'm taking this full-time gambling lark at all seriously. Not entirely sure how to broach this with Anne!

Finally, during the week, I just momentarily went on tilt and missed a last minute winner (Nippy Des Mottes - who drifted badly). This was caused by my new 5star fund. I was so wrapped up in one of those bets, and so wound up by the result that I let the last result affect my next bet. This was my biggest problem years ago, but I have mangaged to put in place strategies to train myself out of it, and for the last couple of years it has not been an issue. I was alarmed to find myself back there. I need to make sure the 5star fund (which is after all only an experiment) doesn't become a toad squatting over my proper activities.

Onwards...(and apologies to anyone falling over the cliff with me!)

Racing - Saturday 13th Jan

Warwick 3:30
D'Argent 5/1
Tana River 6/1
Mon Mome 6/1
Touch Closer 11/1
Naunton Brook 12/1
Kinburn 16/1
Ladalko 16/1
L'Aventure 16/1
Heltornic 20/1

D'Argent, bounce a worry; would also worry about the Welsh National horses; plus laventure and kinburn wouldn't look to be suited by track; Ladalko can't jump. Tana River looks a bog price this morning - Corals go shortest 13/2 and that looks much more like it than the 10/1 plus available. Of course it's Lavelle so you take your chances. Touch Closer raced very lazily at Plumpton Sunday but looked like he may get involved when falling. As I backed him then I think I'll stick with him just in case.

Tana River 5pts win at 10/1+
Touch Closer 3pts win at 20/1
half pt rev fc


Kempton 1:05
Trouble at Bay 7/4
Royal Shakespeare 3/1
Swing Bill 4/1
Ofarel D'airy 4/1

I wouldn't be bullish about either of the front two. Trouble at Bay has a penalty for beating pretty useless horses, and Royal Shakespeare just hasn't looked the part so far over fences. Swing Bill did Ok in a hot race at Plumpton and hopefully the ground will be better here. Ofarel D'airy could be underrated with the age allowance. I think the latter two should be much closer in the betting.

Swing Bill 5pts win at 6/1
Ofarel D'Airy 5pts win at 6/1
1pt rev fc



Lingfield 3:05
Areyoutalkingtome 6/4
Qadar 4/1
Hurricane Spirit 4/1

Touch ask for Hurricane. Forgive Areyoutalkingtome his run over too far last time and this is his for the taking.

Areyoutalkingtome 5pts win at 15/8



Lingfield 3:35
Happy as Larry 9/4
Orchard Supreme 4/1
Red SPell 7/1
Bahar Shumaal 7/1
Very Wise 10/1

The Pitt improver is the fly in the ointment, but I remain impressed with Orchard Supreme, this distance should be Ok. The jockey may be an issue but at the price I'll play.

Orchard Supreme 5pts win at 6/1



Fusili 12/1

Australian Open Tennis

To be honest tennis has not been great to me for a while. I usually take an early position in the majors and then play again at the quarter final stage (as with major football tournaments).

Vaidisova 2pts win at 20/1
Jankovic 2pts win at 14/1

Andy Murray 1pt ew at 40/1



Five Star Bet - Federer 10% of fund at 2/5.

Weekend Football 13th Jan

Just the four this weekend.

Blackburn 5pts beat Arsenal at 7/2

Rotherham 5pts beat Chesterfield 5/4

Barnet 5pts beat Macclesfield 13/10

Chester 5pts beat Wycombe 8/5



Three Star Bet: Blackburn to beat Arsenal 5% at 7/2

Racing - Wincanton 10th Jan

Wincanton 2:40
Opera De Coeur 11/8
Mister Quasimodo 9/4
Aztec Warrior 7/2

Tricky really, even with the two non runners. Everything says to me Opera De Coeur should win this given the allowance against two horses under penalty. Aztec is also one of Henrietta's and that stable's off-limits right now. But most of the shrewd judges I take seriously are totally opposed to Opera, and all on Quasimodo. Think this is going to cost me to go against them but here goes nothing.

Opera De Coeur 6pts win at 7/4

and more alarmingly.

Three Star bet 5% at 7/4

Racing - Ludlow - 8th Jan

Ludlow 2:30
Harringay 3/1
Dearson 4/1
Principe Azzurro 4/1
From Dawn to Dusk 9/1
New Entic 9/1
Wiscalitus 9/1
Waterloo Son 16/1

I really like the shape of this race. Harringay is a much hyped horse with only half-decent form to show for it, and Henrietta Knight's yard is very quiet. Dearson wouldn't be one of Evan Williams's stars (and stable also quiet) and Corals are longest priced about him. From Dawn to Dusk looks to be regressing, and New Entic is one to avoid. Wiscalitus is so so and Waterloo Son looks a Daly fiddler. Principe Azzurro stands out as solid. Slow though, and 2m4f will help, and if the rains come, so will they.

I'm going to play in both the horse fund and in the five star fund. I've been guilty of sitting on the 5 star fund. I seem to have a betting-button version of Eric Bristow's inability to let go of the dart! That said, the 5 star fund is really about short-priced events and it's the place element I'm really after there.


Principe Azzurro 8pts win at 7/1

Principe Azzurro 2.5% place at around 6/4 and 2.5% win at 7/1

7th Jan - Sussex National

2:10 Plumpton
Geevem 7/2
Touch Closer 5/1
Deferlant 7/1
Zimbabwe 7/1
Iris Bleu 12/1
Dunbrody Millar 12/1
Pass me By 12/1
Charbrimal Minster 12/1

My front two are way too short - not sure how I ended up there. Instead of worrying about it though, I'll back them both.

Geevem 4pts win at 9/2
Touch Closer 5pts win at 8/1+
half pt rev fc

Racing - Saturday 6th Jan

I have a stinking cold and with that and people viewing my house and desperate ground I think I'll keep it fairly simple today.


Sandown 1:35
Refinement 3/1
United 3/1
Chamoss Royale 3/1
Inch Pride 9/1
Chickapeakrey 9/1

Three in the shake-up and the prices decide it.

Chamoss Royale 5pts win at 4/1



Sandown 2;05
Bongo Fury 3/1
Bohemian Spirit 3/1
Lorient Express 4/1

No bet.


Sandown 3:10
Kings Signal 5/1
Pilca 5/1
Tous Chez 6/1
papini 8/1
Orcadian 8/1
Nyborg Madrik 16/1
Ma Yahab 16/1

Pretty open. I'll wait until nearer the off. No bet.


Sandown 3:45
Latimers Place 4/1
Preacher Boy 5/1
Kerstino Two 9/1
Nadover 11/1
Turthen 11/1
Mort De Rire 11/1
Avitta 11/1
harris Bay 12/1
Bubble Boy 12/1

Latimers Place may have gone up too much but these aren't a bunch of improvers. Bubble Boy lurks ominously if he can handle the class. One to keep an eye on for later, but for now.

Latimers Place 5pts win at 6/1


Haydock 3:25
Roman Ark 9/4
Ilathou 9/2
Nice Try 5/1
Wain Mountain 13/2

If Ilathou gets out front in a nice rhythm he could run really well here. I may try to lay off in -running though based on his latest at Chepstow.

Ilathou 5pts win at 6/1

and why not throw in a modest trixie as well!

Racing 5th Jan

Nice winner yesterday to get the year going.

Newcastle 1:30
Cloudy Lane Evens
Numero Un De Solzen 5/1
Euro American 6/1

The fave only has to repeat what he did last time out and the price seems fair.

Cloudy Lane 5pts win at Evens



Wolves 2:20
Two Step Kid 3/1
Qadar 4/1
Night Prospector 7/1

Obviously I have the price worng on Night Prospector, and clearly the consensus is he's done with winning for a while. However, considering I've knocked out some of those at the front of the market and it's an 8 runner race, I think I'd best get involved.

Night Prospector 3pts ew at 16+ (win and place on betfair longer).

FA Cup - Outright

As usual I'm dutching the big guns - it's worked for the last few years and is as close to buying money as I've ever come (hope the gambling gods aren't listening).

You can dutch Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool at 4/5. I usually do Arsenal, but as I can see Liverpool dumping them out this round I'll chance my arm at those odds.

20pts to 16

Weekend Football - FA Cup

I've used my ratings for the FA Cup ties, which could be an issue as I wouldn't be sure how well they translate across divisions. Luckily only three ties become bets.

Birmingham 5pts beat Newcastle at 7/4

Plymouth (away) 5pts beat Peterborough at 6/5

Preston 5pts beat Sunderland at 6/5

The latter may become our first "three star" bet, but I'll wait on team news and wonder why Ladbrokes are so out on a limb.

Two other matches nearly made it - Liverpool and Southend both to win - but I decided against it on balance.

Racing - Thursday 4th Jan

Fontwell 1:40
Hes the Gaffer 6/4
Sha Bihan 4/1
Jolly Boy 9/1
Walcot Lad 12/1

Not a very inspiring race. The fave is Ok but not exaclty solid, and I'm happy to take a chance that the King stable have a decent enoygh prospect. Walcot Lad does all his winning in the Spring but Corals 11/1 catches the eye, and I may have a tickle later on.

Sha Bihan 4pts win at 5/1+



Lingfield 3:30
Kipsigis 7/2
Bring me Sunshine 7/1
Theatre 7/1
Chamacco 7/1
English Jim 8/1
Alfasonic 11/1
High Hope 12/1
Methodical 16/1

I was on Kipsigis last time and am not keen on deserting him, but this looks pretty open and the price not very tempting. Instead I'm going to forgive Bring Me Sunshine his last run, and also side with the bottomweight in heavy ground. Being up in class and outof the handicap in such conditions has never bothered me, and the small stable seems to have led to a bit of value.

Bring Me Sunshine 4pts win at 14/1
English Jim 4pts win at 16/1
half pt rev fc

Racing - Jan 3rd - Wetherby

Wetherby 1:25
Smoothly Does It 6/4
Ellway Prospect 11/2
The Hairy Lemon 11/2
John Forbes 11/2
Circassian 14/1

Lightweights dominated at Ayr yesterday and will probably do so again here. I'm pretty much already committed though because Ellway Prospect is in my virtual stable after winning a thumping amount at Taunton. The 2m trip is a real worry and it will need to be a thorough stamina test to give her a chance. Also not happy that Dickie is riding instead of Jamie Moore as he looked to give up at Sandown as soon as the shoving started.

Still, she owes me nothing, and this isn't much of a race.

Ellway Prospect 4pts win at 8/1



Wetherby 3:05
Jungle Jinks 5/2
Kerrys Lad 3/1
Sharp jack 3/1
Devils Run 9/2

One of these will have a going day. No idea which one. No bet.

New Fund for 2007 - the Five star fund

For this year, I will start measuring blog performance for 2007 as well as overall since inception.

Also, I am launching a new fund. I was quite taken by Harry Findlay's articles in the Guardian and Telegraph last month and they chimed with various thoughts I had already been having. My approach over the years has been very conservative. I have been grinding away, building up each fund slowly but surely, with as little risk as possible of going bankrupt at any stage. This has served me well and I have no desire to change my overall approach.

However, I have felt for some time that I am missing out on opportunities. In particular I am not exploiting areas where I feel I should be getting my betting boots on, rather than just turning over my money. I also feel I am not exploting a current leaning (betfair driven) towards value being at the front end of the market, especially longer odds-on shots.

I also can see the sense (as a 4% betfair commission punter) in Harry's assertion that you can't make a living on 4%. Of course I'm basing that on his definition of making a living which is presumably far richer than the one I appear to making quite successfully on 4%! I have two ways of moving up a gear.

1. To continue what I do, and to continue to plough some of the year on year growth back into the funds to increase staking. My staking has after all increased about 10 fold on my horse racing stakes of only 5 years ago.

2. To set up a new fund which is highly aggressive in scope. The objective will be for capital growth as quickly as is sensible and with a willingness, at least in the early days to bust the bank. The fund is moderately-sized (a fifth of the size of my current racing fund) to allow for me to bust it without too many tears(!)but hopefully large enough to start having an effect. To be honest it is also set at a level where initially I am still betting within my comfort zone.


The fund will be primarily betfair based. Firstly, because this should hopefully help me get to higher discount levels, which will help all my funds. And secondly, because I'm finding it hard enough to get bets on with bookmaker accounts as it is and I don't want to scare any more off by suddenly upping stakes.

All well and good, but where are these new bets coming from?

I'll be concentrating on two areas.

A) Pressing up on those bets from other funds that strike me as exceptional value (naps if you like), but the constraints of the particular fund don't allow me to bet as much as perhaps I'd like.
For example I may see a football match which to my mind offers exceptional value (eg Bolton to beat Arsenal), but can only put 5pts on the bet within my football fund. Now I will be able to use my new fund as well.

B) Being prepared to have a thump at long odds on chances that whilst remaining value in my book, I've always shied away from in the past. I did start this towards the end of last year. Australia to win the ashes at 1/4 would be a good example.

The staking will be on three levels based on a mixture of confidence, price and exposure in other funds. It will also be done as a percentage of the current bank, instead of my usual percentage of starting-bank reassessed at start of every season. Hopefully, assuming an upward curve, this will speed progress.

The levels will be:
Three star bet - 5% of existing fund
Four star bet - 7.5% of existing fund
Five star bet - 10% of exisiting fund.

I will post all bets up on here. This should be of interest to the casual observer as I know some of you like to pick and choose from my recommendations. Now you'll have my own pointer as to the strongest bets.

I'll include progress as part of my monthly summaries. However, I will NOT measure this as part of my overall figures as it would distort them, and would also be a pain to keep track of on the new staking basis.

Fingers crossed!