There's no pundits looking to get after Frankel this morning (Nick Mordin aside) and it's easy to see why. Still, at that price in a field of relatively unexposed 3 year olds no self-respecting Saturday Gambler can sit back and do nothing. Sure, we're going to look stupid most the time, but it's a mighty sweet slice of pie when the sure thing does fail.
The problem is what to oppose him with. I took Casamento each way at 16s midweek - the place element looked big. 12/1 is looking closer to his price, so I'll pass over him this morning. Which leaves Fury as the horse likeliest to raise his game. He's been surprisingly tight in the market this week. You can get money back for second at boylesports at 16/1, or take the 20/1 win only betfair.
Obviously you have to do the forecast to a few quid.
For the 'get rich quick' trebles, build some perms around those two, plus Sandor in the 2:00, Johnny Mudball and Tangerine Trees in the Palace House, and how about another dent in Mourinho's home record with Real Zaragoza at 10/1+. Chuck in the Scoop 6 and join me at the pay window later!
Be lucky...
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Whitbread
No time this morning. I was hoping est End Rocker or Iconoclast would line up. Instead I've had a tickle on two rank outsiders who need to find some form from somewhere but are priced fairly to do so.
Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!
Be lucky...
Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!
Be lucky...
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Scottish National
Which has been a sometime lucky race for me over the years. I'm not really connected to it this year I have to say, but I did make a note about Ouzbeck months ago "leave out of calculations until back for go at a good ground Scottish National". Emma Lavelle is one of my favourite "go-to" trainers in handicaps and I'll hope the sun shines enough at 16/1, where I had him closer to 10s....
Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1
Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1
Saturday, April 09, 2011
Grand National
Nothing to add to the post below.
Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!
Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.
Be lucky...
Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!
Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.
Be lucky...
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
US Masters and Grand National
Saturday Gamblers have to have a go at both of these events don't they!
Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.
by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.
My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.
US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?
So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1
West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.
Be Lucky...
Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.
by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.
My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.
US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?
So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1
West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.
Be Lucky...
Saturday, April 02, 2011
The Lincoln
No self-respecting professional without inside information would dream of a bet in the Lincoln. Luckily, us Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints!
Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.
The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.
Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.
So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta
£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1
£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom
£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000
Be lucky...
Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.
The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.
Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.
So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta
£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1
£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom
£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000
Be lucky...
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