Bordeaux at Evens to qualify looks too big.
It looks priced on Lyon's reputation rather than the form of the last couple of years.
I only hope that doesn't preface another 7-1 scoreline tonight!
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Saturday 27th March
It's been a strange week for me. After Cheltenham's riches I seemed to take my eye off the "trading" ball, and only luck has saved me from seriously frittering away some hard work.
I'm busy this weekend and the break should allow me to refocus on the more mundane lifestyle of a trader.
As left-field bets go, this is up there. How about all the big three to lose today? Hardly likely I know, but the games look harder than the prices imply and none of them have been immune from dropping cheap points this season. You can get over 500/1 the treble.
As for the Lincoln, no idea as ever, and I'm determined to ditch heritage handicaps from my portfolio. Penitent does seem to skew the market a touch though and I'd rather have three or four running for me at the same price as he is - so my darts fall on horses on - Prime Exhibit, Mull of Killough and Tiger Reigns.
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I'm busy this weekend and the break should allow me to refocus on the more mundane lifestyle of a trader.
As left-field bets go, this is up there. How about all the big three to lose today? Hardly likely I know, but the games look harder than the prices imply and none of them have been immune from dropping cheap points this season. You can get over 500/1 the treble.
As for the Lincoln, no idea as ever, and I'm determined to ditch heritage handicaps from my portfolio. Penitent does seem to skew the market a touch though and I'd rather have three or four running for me at the same price as he is - so my darts fall on horses on - Prime Exhibit, Mull of Killough and Tiger Reigns.
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Saturday, March 20, 2010
Saturday 20th March
Well that was a fun week! Back to the trading today...
Birmingham continue to be underrated. To be honest this match has draw written all over it. I think that's the way I'll play it, keeping 0-0 well on-side early doors also.
Get rich quick at Uttoxeter.
Three horses favourably mentioned in my notebook trade at nice looking prices today. It would be rude not to do a small treble!
Sarde 2:05 at 12/1
Helpston 2:40 at 8/1
Fortification 3:15 at 25/1
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Birmingham continue to be underrated. To be honest this match has draw written all over it. I think that's the way I'll play it, keeping 0-0 well on-side early doors also.
Get rich quick at Uttoxeter.
Three horses favourably mentioned in my notebook trade at nice looking prices today. It would be rude not to do a small treble!
Sarde 2:05 at 12/1
Helpston 2:40 at 8/1
Fortification 3:15 at 25/1
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Friday, March 19, 2010
Friday 19th March
I've got Imperial Commander and Soldatino at 14s, and am happy with that.
If you're looking for a couple of off-the-wall bets how about a couple of 33/1 shots.
Barwell Bridge shouldn't be good enough to win a Triumph, but I'm not sure these are up to much and the ground and pace should be right up his street.
Pigeon Island has look threatening a few this this year (before falling!), and I've had him earmarked for a big handicap - why not the Grand Annual!
If you're looking for a couple of off-the-wall bets how about a couple of 33/1 shots.
Barwell Bridge shouldn't be good enough to win a Triumph, but I'm not sure these are up to much and the ground and pace should be right up his street.
Pigeon Island has look threatening a few this this year (before falling!), and I've had him earmarked for a big handicap - why not the Grand Annual!
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Thursday 18th March
All my big bets and ante post tickles fall hopelessly by the wayside, and I was pretty dispirited after the Queen Mum yesterday. Still, that's Cheltenham for you and Spirit River cheered me up soon after.
Not as much as the 90/1 I got on Cue Card though!
Darts day today, and I'll be keeping Ferdy Murphy, Venetia Williams and Emma Lavelle on-side.
Not as much as the 90/1 I got on Cue Card though!
Darts day today, and I'll be keeping Ferdy Murphy, Venetia Williams and Emma Lavelle on-side.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday 17th Cheltenham
Somersby and three other seconds for me yesterday....that would have been me on tilt for the rest of the festival in olden days
(On the other hand my 400/1 on CSKA Moscow is still running!)
Today was supposed to be Weird Al and Kalahari King's day. Hopefully the latter will do better than last year's heart-breaker. I'm on at 14s so have everything crossed.
The other horses I like today are all each way propositions.
Manyriverstocross is my "stable" horse for this year, and this looks the perfect race for him. 33/1 was lovely, 16/1 is still too big.
Knockara Beau was given a terrible ride last time, let him give it a go for the front today and he might sneak a place in a race that's usually carnage incorporated.
Spirit River is another horse looking to uphold Tote Trophy form.
Mix them all up and get rich quick!
(On the other hand my 400/1 on CSKA Moscow is still running!)
Today was supposed to be Weird Al and Kalahari King's day. Hopefully the latter will do better than last year's heart-breaker. I'm on at 14s so have everything crossed.
The other horses I like today are all each way propositions.
Manyriverstocross is my "stable" horse for this year, and this looks the perfect race for him. 33/1 was lovely, 16/1 is still too big.
Knockara Beau was given a terrible ride last time, let him give it a go for the front today and he might sneak a place in a race that's usually carnage incorporated.
Spirit River is another horse looking to uphold Tote Trophy form.
Mix them all up and get rich quick!
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Tuesday 16th March
For those who want my get rich quick notions.
Somersby would be my idea of bet of the day, and my pin has come down on Khyber Kim in the Champion.
I'm going to do the double, and then treble them up with these four outsiders (which I'll double with each other and do an ew acc)
Flat Out (hoping he's Ebaziyan mark 2)
New Alco (because I seem to back him every year, and the Ferdy Murphy factor)
Monkerhostin (because he won a proper race recently so only needs to take to the fences to outclass this lot)
Easter Legend (because Emma Lavelle is the new Ferdy Murphy).
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Somersby would be my idea of bet of the day, and my pin has come down on Khyber Kim in the Champion.
I'm going to do the double, and then treble them up with these four outsiders (which I'll double with each other and do an ew acc)
Flat Out (hoping he's Ebaziyan mark 2)
New Alco (because I seem to back him every year, and the Ferdy Murphy factor)
Monkerhostin (because he won a proper race recently so only needs to take to the fences to outclass this lot)
Easter Legend (because Emma Lavelle is the new Ferdy Murphy).
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Saturday, March 13, 2010
Saturday 13th March
Some possible horses to back to lay shorter in-running:
Knockavella Ayr 3:50 (possible unopposed front runner with solid win chance)
Bowleaze Sand 2:30 (loves track, races prominently)
Aathur Sand 3:05 (travels so strongly)
Birmingham have a terrible record against teams above them and Blackburn have a perfect 0-9 away against teams above them. The compilers seem to have this in mind with their prices this morning and I'd say they've overreacted, as do my ratings. Birmingham should keep things tighter than Hull managed and I'd be a layer of Everton at 6/4. Spurs look to be badly missing Aaron Lennon (not a sentence I ever imagined writing) and Blackburn are slowly improving. 4/9 looks very short for a team that's flopped at home a few times this year.
Fancy an each way double on two big priced horses next week? It's the place element I'm interested in - close to 100/1.
Manyriverstocross in the Neptune 25/1 (I really fancy this horse to be in the mix with the step up in trip to suit and his 3rd in the Tote trophy rock solid).
Carruthers in the Gold Cup 50/1 (66/1 available). Not really a win proposition and will get no soft lead, but this may be a small field come the off and his small field record reads 112111.
I'll post every day of the meeting with similarly inspired/stupid ideas!!
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Knockavella Ayr 3:50 (possible unopposed front runner with solid win chance)
Bowleaze Sand 2:30 (loves track, races prominently)
Aathur Sand 3:05 (travels so strongly)
Birmingham have a terrible record against teams above them and Blackburn have a perfect 0-9 away against teams above them. The compilers seem to have this in mind with their prices this morning and I'd say they've overreacted, as do my ratings. Birmingham should keep things tighter than Hull managed and I'd be a layer of Everton at 6/4. Spurs look to be badly missing Aaron Lennon (not a sentence I ever imagined writing) and Blackburn are slowly improving. 4/9 looks very short for a team that's flopped at home a few times this year.
Fancy an each way double on two big priced horses next week? It's the place element I'm interested in - close to 100/1.
Manyriverstocross in the Neptune 25/1 (I really fancy this horse to be in the mix with the step up in trip to suit and his 3rd in the Tote trophy rock solid).
Carruthers in the Gold Cup 50/1 (66/1 available). Not really a win proposition and will get no soft lead, but this may be a small field come the off and his small field record reads 112111.
I'll post every day of the meeting with similarly inspired/stupid ideas!!
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Saturday, March 06, 2010
Saturday 6th March
Refreshed from a few days by the seaside. More refreshed than my wife anyway, who is busy throwing-up all last week's seafood. Only a matter of time before I join her!
Fulham. Always difficult to be objective about your own side, but I priced them at 6/4 for this. And that was before I saw the injury worries Spurs have in midfield. Spurs would be happy with a draw and I'd happily lay them at 6/4.
For get rich quick purposes I'll be looking at stable-horse Ellerslie George (though vibes have this as a prep), and Au Courant (who remains worryingly long considering Pricewise tipped him). Line Artic won't get a better chance at Kempton. And if you want two old-timers to cross your fingers and hope for a bounce back to form at big prices - how about Tot O' Whiskey and Helen's Vision. More likely to be pulled up though!
Fulham. Always difficult to be objective about your own side, but I priced them at 6/4 for this. And that was before I saw the injury worries Spurs have in midfield. Spurs would be happy with a draw and I'd happily lay them at 6/4.
For get rich quick purposes I'll be looking at stable-horse Ellerslie George (though vibes have this as a prep), and Au Courant (who remains worryingly long considering Pricewise tipped him). Line Artic won't get a better chance at Kempton. And if you want two old-timers to cross your fingers and hope for a bounce back to form at big prices - how about Tot O' Whiskey and Helen's Vision. More likely to be pulled up though!
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