Thursday, August 19, 2010

Thursday 19th August

Dirar staunched the flow so far yesterday.

I've got Snow Fairy in at 9/4 today - so a drifting 10/3 looks too big. In the old days I'd be massing the tanks.

Instead:

Capponi/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Suruor/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Balcarce Nov/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
3 x £5ew trebles.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Wednesday 18th August

Hopeless yesterday, (as was my trading - particularly going low on goals in the Spurs game!)


Illustrious Blue/Shropshire/Darley Sun
£10 treble.

(maybe add Topmokea and Dirar to the mix to suit).

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Tuesday 17th August

Let's play York this week.


Harris Tweed/Jakalberry/Almiqdaad £8 treble returns £25000ish

Cavalryman/Jakalberry/Cutlass Bay 6 x £2 forecasts.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Thursday 12th August

Fair Trade looks a backable price this afternoon at Salisbury. Although he's yet to show it I'm fairly sure he's as good as Hearts of Fire and that's favourite. I've taken 16s but 12s still worth a dabble.

As for the USPGA:
Ogilvy 120s
Charles Howell 300s+
Kevin Na (!) 300s+
Leishman 400s+
Matteson 500s+
and Gregory Bourdy 700s+
form my small team of no hopers!

.

Monday, August 02, 2010

The Curse of Pricewise

The last three horses I've had decent single bets on (and marked up on here), have all also been Pricewise selections. (I arrived at my conclusions separately!)

What a poisoned chalice this is.

Music Show early price 10/1. I got 8/1. SP 6/1 (I think)
Illustrious Blue early price 11/1. I got 9/1. SP 8/1(or shorter)
Evens and Odds early price 33/1. I got 25/1. SP 20/1

That's at least 12 points his recommendation has cost me (I'd have thought without his recommendation I could have got better than early odds on betfair), and 20 points it's cost a mug punter with a lucky pin.

There's a twist though. I don't have the data to back this assertion up, but I have noticed it for the last couple of years. If Pricewise selections continue to be backed through the day to go off at the sort of prices shown above, they may well run well and win, or indeed sometimes badly. If however the horse drifts back out before the off to the original Pricewise price, or even bigger, the horse WILL NOT win.

Just felt like sharing that...