What with travelling and the weather and all, I doubt I'll even bet on the King George and Welsh National, let alone be able to post on here.
So, my Christmas present to you all is to point out that Montenegro are still 9/1 to top their group. Which just goes to show how much I move the markets these days as I've been banging on about it since October!
They top the group, unbeaten, yet to concede, and drew with us without their best players. There's obvious "England" reasons why the price is too long - hype, liabilities, and patriotism - as well as a general disbelief that the lowest-rated country can be doing so well.
I think they should be closer to 4/1 personally (which of course makes them unlikely winners). What it is, is a good old-fashioned value bet, with the added bonus of acting as an insurance bet in case England do indeed cock up....
So, my present to myself this Christmas is another £60 Montenegro 9/1.
.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Strictly Come Dancing
There's not much else to get stuck into today!
Midweek Matt Baker was 6/4 to win. In the good old days I'd have been amassing the tanks and going all in. This Wednesday I scraped together the last £36.41 in my Betfair account. What a difference a couple of years makes.
He's now 4/5 after the Specials' Boys have got stuck in. Still, that's fair. To be honest I'd have him winning this at least 7 times out of 10 from here. Blue Peter, Countryfile and The One Show give Matt the perfect middle England profile for this show; he has a big voting advantage being the only man; and will throw in some gymnastics to get some 10s from the judges, who have been over-marking Kara and Pamela for weeks to ensure they reach the final. A "respected source" believes he got 50% of the votes last week, and if so, this is a cakewalk, not that it pays to believe too many "respected sources" when it comes to reality TV.
My only gripe about Matt is that I've been waiting all series for him to do a dance to his own song, Boney M's loving tribute "Ma, ma, ma, ma, Matt Baker..." I hope he's saving it for his victory parade....
I have Pamela for top female and I haven't given up on that either - not judging by my wife's frenzied voting last week. I wouldn't put anyone off a sneaky tenner on the straight forecast, but let's not dilute the bet here.
(Matt could drift to evens or better during the show, it may be worth keeping an eye on it. I'm on paella duty so won't bother).
Matt Baker £100 at 4/5
Be lucky...
Midweek Matt Baker was 6/4 to win. In the good old days I'd have been amassing the tanks and going all in. This Wednesday I scraped together the last £36.41 in my Betfair account. What a difference a couple of years makes.
He's now 4/5 after the Specials' Boys have got stuck in. Still, that's fair. To be honest I'd have him winning this at least 7 times out of 10 from here. Blue Peter, Countryfile and The One Show give Matt the perfect middle England profile for this show; he has a big voting advantage being the only man; and will throw in some gymnastics to get some 10s from the judges, who have been over-marking Kara and Pamela for weeks to ensure they reach the final. A "respected source" believes he got 50% of the votes last week, and if so, this is a cakewalk, not that it pays to believe too many "respected sources" when it comes to reality TV.
My only gripe about Matt is that I've been waiting all series for him to do a dance to his own song, Boney M's loving tribute "Ma, ma, ma, ma, Matt Baker..." I hope he's saving it for his victory parade....
I have Pamela for top female and I haven't given up on that either - not judging by my wife's frenzied voting last week. I wouldn't put anyone off a sneaky tenner on the straight forecast, but let's not dilute the bet here.
(Matt could drift to evens or better during the show, it may be worth keeping an eye on it. I'm on paella duty so won't bother).
Matt Baker £100 at 4/5
Be lucky...
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Saturday 12th December
11:40 Woolcombe Folly is progressive but shouldn't really be so much shorter than I'm Delilah. The latter is of course dependent on Ferdy Murphy, so the market will probably tell you all you need to know. 9/1 guaranteed seems too big to me though.
12:45 Time for Rupert should win, but I'll let him at the price. Robo might be worth a speculative fiver at 20/1+
1:20 Very difficult race. I think Karabak is just about the best of these, but Restless Harry is the one that's probably a touch long, even with Pricewise's stamp of approval.
1:55 Prices probably about right. Master Minded hard to back these days with any confidence, but I can't plump for one to oppose him with. I like Gauvain, and Somersby, though latter seems to be in the wrong race, and excuses are running thin for my old favourite Kalahari King. Tricky.
2:30 An easy race for us. We stick with Little Josh, even though 6/1 is probably the right price, in the hope he does a Senor El Betrutti, and put a few quid on Pigeon Island at 50/1 just in case.
3:05 Cue Card gets his big test. Having backed him at 90/1 in the bumper I'm happy to let him win unbacked at 2/1!
I'll probably over-stake during the day, but £100 could look like this:
I'm Delilah £25 at 9/1
Little Josh £30 at 13/2
Pigeon Island £10 at 50/1
(and 2.50 rev forecast)
£10 ew double Somersby/Calgary Bay
£5 treble I'm Delilah/Restless Harry/Gauvain
£2.50 accas above three + Little Josh/Pigeon Island
Be lucky...
12:45 Time for Rupert should win, but I'll let him at the price. Robo might be worth a speculative fiver at 20/1+
1:20 Very difficult race. I think Karabak is just about the best of these, but Restless Harry is the one that's probably a touch long, even with Pricewise's stamp of approval.
1:55 Prices probably about right. Master Minded hard to back these days with any confidence, but I can't plump for one to oppose him with. I like Gauvain, and Somersby, though latter seems to be in the wrong race, and excuses are running thin for my old favourite Kalahari King. Tricky.
2:30 An easy race for us. We stick with Little Josh, even though 6/1 is probably the right price, in the hope he does a Senor El Betrutti, and put a few quid on Pigeon Island at 50/1 just in case.
3:05 Cue Card gets his big test. Having backed him at 90/1 in the bumper I'm happy to let him win unbacked at 2/1!
I'll probably over-stake during the day, but £100 could look like this:
I'm Delilah £25 at 9/1
Little Josh £30 at 13/2
Pigeon Island £10 at 50/1
(and 2.50 rev forecast)
£10 ew double Somersby/Calgary Bay
£5 treble I'm Delilah/Restless Harry/Gauvain
£2.50 accas above three + Little Josh/Pigeon Island
Be lucky...
Friday, December 10, 2010
Friday 10th December
A Friday bonus.
Looks tough, but I'll throw some darts anyway.
The novice chase looks a cracker as always here. Wishfull Thinking looked beaten last time when Robinson Collonges fell, and will struggle to carry penalty against Spirit River, but he was tanking along that day and looks like he'll make the grade. Seems too weak this morning.
RavetheBrave and Regal Approach have to improve but look progressive and unexposed and there's plenty of dead wood here. Prices look fair enough.
Midnight Chase surely will go close again - looks a track specialist - but at the prices I'll have to go for two somewhat iffy horses - Bet The Boys with Murphy back on board, and Forest Pennant, if the fast pace suits.
Wishfull Thinking £20 at 9/1+
RavetheBrave £20 at 10/1
Regal Approach £20 at 9/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
Beat The Boys £10 at 20/1
Forest pennant £10 at 20/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
4 x £5 trebles.
Looks tough, but I'll throw some darts anyway.
The novice chase looks a cracker as always here. Wishfull Thinking looked beaten last time when Robinson Collonges fell, and will struggle to carry penalty against Spirit River, but he was tanking along that day and looks like he'll make the grade. Seems too weak this morning.
RavetheBrave and Regal Approach have to improve but look progressive and unexposed and there's plenty of dead wood here. Prices look fair enough.
Midnight Chase surely will go close again - looks a track specialist - but at the prices I'll have to go for two somewhat iffy horses - Bet The Boys with Murphy back on board, and Forest Pennant, if the fast pace suits.
Wishfull Thinking £20 at 9/1+
RavetheBrave £20 at 10/1
Regal Approach £20 at 9/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
Beat The Boys £10 at 20/1
Forest pennant £10 at 20/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
4 x £5 trebles.
Saturday, December 04, 2010
Saturday 4th December
Saturday Gamblers need action, we've been waiting all week to get stuck in!
But god knows what into.
Luckily, I had £50 on England in the cricket midweek so I'll count that as half my ammo for the week, and chuck the rest around.
Imprimus Tagula will carry our money in the 2:55 at Southwell at 11/2. Both Pricewise and Corals main odds compiler pick it, and that is the full extent of my form study! It's that sort of day.
The rest can go on the football, looking to see if the big clubs can continue to be as useless as they have been lately. The odds are terrible, and it's a shame the Blackpool game is off, but let's go for the fun and glory on Bolton, Everton, Birmingham and include Villa on Monday, as the bet running on there would warm the weekend up!
Imprimus Tagula £20 at 11/2
Everton, Bolton, Birmingham and Villa
6 x £4.5 doubles
£3 acca pays c.£4000
.
But god knows what into.
Luckily, I had £50 on England in the cricket midweek so I'll count that as half my ammo for the week, and chuck the rest around.
Imprimus Tagula will carry our money in the 2:55 at Southwell at 11/2. Both Pricewise and Corals main odds compiler pick it, and that is the full extent of my form study! It's that sort of day.
The rest can go on the football, looking to see if the big clubs can continue to be as useless as they have been lately. The odds are terrible, and it's a shame the Blackpool game is off, but let's go for the fun and glory on Bolton, Everton, Birmingham and include Villa on Monday, as the bet running on there would warm the weekend up!
Imprimus Tagula £20 at 11/2
Everton, Bolton, Birmingham and Villa
6 x £4.5 doubles
£3 acca pays c.£4000
.
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