Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Montenegro

What with travelling and the weather and all, I doubt I'll even bet on the King George and Welsh National, let alone be able to post on here.

So, my Christmas present to you all is to point out that Montenegro are still 9/1 to top their group. Which just goes to show how much I move the markets these days as I've been banging on about it since October!

They top the group, unbeaten, yet to concede, and drew with us without their best players. There's obvious "England" reasons why the price is too long - hype, liabilities, and patriotism - as well as a general disbelief that the lowest-rated country can be doing so well.

I think they should be closer to 4/1 personally (which of course makes them unlikely winners). What it is, is a good old-fashioned value bet, with the added bonus of acting as an insurance bet in case England do indeed cock up....


So, my present to myself this Christmas is another £60 Montenegro 9/1.


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Saturday, December 18, 2010

Strictly Come Dancing

There's not much else to get stuck into today!

Midweek Matt Baker was 6/4 to win. In the good old days I'd have been amassing the tanks and going all in. This Wednesday I scraped together the last £36.41 in my Betfair account. What a difference a couple of years makes.

He's now 4/5 after the Specials' Boys have got stuck in. Still, that's fair. To be honest I'd have him winning this at least 7 times out of 10 from here. Blue Peter, Countryfile and The One Show give Matt the perfect middle England profile for this show; he has a big voting advantage being the only man; and will throw in some gymnastics to get some 10s from the judges, who have been over-marking Kara and Pamela for weeks to ensure they reach the final. A "respected source" believes he got 50% of the votes last week, and if so, this is a cakewalk, not that it pays to believe too many "respected sources" when it comes to reality TV.

My only gripe about Matt is that I've been waiting all series for him to do a dance to his own song, Boney M's loving tribute "Ma, ma, ma, ma, Matt Baker..." I hope he's saving it for his victory parade....

I have Pamela for top female and I haven't given up on that either - not judging by my wife's frenzied voting last week. I wouldn't put anyone off a sneaky tenner on the straight forecast, but let's not dilute the bet here.

(Matt could drift to evens or better during the show, it may be worth keeping an eye on it. I'm on paella duty so won't bother).

Matt Baker £100 at 4/5


Be lucky...

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Saturday 12th December

11:40 Woolcombe Folly is progressive but shouldn't really be so much shorter than I'm Delilah. The latter is of course dependent on Ferdy Murphy, so the market will probably tell you all you need to know. 9/1 guaranteed seems too big to me though.

12:45 Time for Rupert should win, but I'll let him at the price. Robo might be worth a speculative fiver at 20/1+

1:20 Very difficult race. I think Karabak is just about the best of these, but Restless Harry is the one that's probably a touch long, even with Pricewise's stamp of approval.

1:55 Prices probably about right. Master Minded hard to back these days with any confidence, but I can't plump for one to oppose him with. I like Gauvain, and Somersby, though latter seems to be in the wrong race, and excuses are running thin for my old favourite Kalahari King. Tricky.

2:30 An easy race for us. We stick with Little Josh, even though 6/1 is probably the right price, in the hope he does a Senor El Betrutti, and put a few quid on Pigeon Island at 50/1 just in case.

3:05 Cue Card gets his big test. Having backed him at 90/1 in the bumper I'm happy to let him win unbacked at 2/1!


I'll probably over-stake during the day, but £100 could look like this:

I'm Delilah £25 at 9/1
Little Josh £30 at 13/2
Pigeon Island £10 at 50/1
(and 2.50 rev forecast)

£10 ew double Somersby/Calgary Bay
£5 treble I'm Delilah/Restless Harry/Gauvain
£2.50 accas above three + Little Josh/Pigeon Island


Be lucky...

Friday, December 10, 2010

Friday 10th December

A Friday bonus.

Looks tough, but I'll throw some darts anyway.

The novice chase looks a cracker as always here. Wishfull Thinking looked beaten last time when Robinson Collonges fell, and will struggle to carry penalty against Spirit River, but he was tanking along that day and looks like he'll make the grade. Seems too weak this morning.

RavetheBrave and Regal Approach have to improve but look progressive and unexposed and there's plenty of dead wood here. Prices look fair enough.

Midnight Chase surely will go close again - looks a track specialist - but at the prices I'll have to go for two somewhat iffy horses - Bet The Boys with Murphy back on board, and Forest Pennant, if the fast pace suits.

Wishfull Thinking £20 at 9/1+
RavetheBrave £20 at 10/1
Regal Approach £20 at 9/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
Beat The Boys £10 at 20/1
Forest pennant £10 at 20/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
4 x £5 trebles.

Saturday, December 04, 2010

Saturday 4th December

Saturday Gamblers need action, we've been waiting all week to get stuck in!

But god knows what into.

Luckily, I had £50 on England in the cricket midweek so I'll count that as half my ammo for the week, and chuck the rest around.

Imprimus Tagula will carry our money in the 2:55 at Southwell at 11/2. Both Pricewise and Corals main odds compiler pick it, and that is the full extent of my form study! It's that sort of day.

The rest can go on the football, looking to see if the big clubs can continue to be as useless as they have been lately. The odds are terrible, and it's a shame the Blackpool game is off, but let's go for the fun and glory on Bolton, Everton, Birmingham and include Villa on Monday, as the bet running on there would warm the weekend up!

Imprimus Tagula £20 at 11/2
Everton, Bolton, Birmingham and Villa
6 x £4.5 doubles
£3 acca pays c.£4000

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Saturday, November 27, 2010

Saturday 27th November

What a great race the Hennessey promises to be.

I cheered Denman all up the straight last year without even having had a bet on him, so I'd be delighted for the three timer. But he's more like an 8/1 shot in my book. This despite the fact he could have blown this field apart by the time they reach the cross fence. It'll be particularly interesting to see which of the young pretenders can go the gallop and still jump soundly.

Weird Al's been in my cyber-stable since his first outing, so I'm feeling a bit like a nervous owner myself this morning. The price isn't value, but I've always believed in having a couple of horses to follow blindly, and I'll be betting with my heart on this one.

On price I keep coming back to the horses proven in grade one company, running off such low weights. Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges have both dropped in the ratings and a return to form has to put them in the mix. But the one I've looked at all week is Taranis. He won this blog a fortune a few years ago as the middle leg of a treble when winning the Ryanair, so there's a little love in there, but if he travels and stays as well as he did last time out, he has to have a better chance than the prices.

So:

£60 Weird Al at 7/1 (and may drift badly this afternoon)
£30 Taranis (I'm on at 14/1+ but 12/1 still fair).
£3.50 rev exacta Taranis/Neptune Collonges
50p combination trifecta the above three.

And to get rich quick how about:
£10 Stormy Weather/Taranis/Just Smudge returns £17000+




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Saturday, November 20, 2010

Saturday 20th November

Strange day today - there's plenty of racing to want to watch, but bets not exactly flying off the page.

All the graded races look to be priced Ok - each with a short priced favourite I wouldn't want to back at the prices, but their only credible opponents are similarly short-priced second favourites. I'll watch.

So, we're left with three tricky small-field chase handicaps.

Haydock 1:15
Pace duel up front there probably. Judging by Wincanton Tara Royal may not be able to keep up, which leaves Gringo to improve on his run at Kelso last time.
7/2 is a fair price, if an unexciting one.


Haydock 2:20
Wogan is very likeable and 4/1 is longer than my tissue (3/1). I was sniffy about some of these, which left me with Dance Island as value also at 12/1.


Ascot 3:10
Be watching to see if Noble Alan gets home over 2m1f here, as he's looked a short runner before to me. Woolcombe Folly looks the one, but again 3/1 is only fair.


Tomorrow's Becher Chase is more my cup of tea. However, again I seem to be drawn to the favourite, Maljimar. I'll put him in some accas today, and hope I don't have to bet again tomorrow!!


So, something like:
Gringo £25 at 7/2
Wogan £20 at 4/1 and Dance Island £10 at 12/1
Woolcombe Folly £25 at 3/1

Gringo/Wogan/W Folly £10 to return £750ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly £5 to return £1000ish
Gringo/Wogan/W Folly/Maljimar £10 to return £6500ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly/Maljimar £5 to return £8500ish

And assuming we're not sat on a fat voucher I'll go £40 Maljimar best price tomorrow...


Be lucky...

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Thursday 18th November

A few prices that look too long, for you to do what you like with. I can't afford to tie much money up long-term unfortunately, but will do some modest trebles or something.

The Weekender put up a good case for Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges for the Hennessey yesterday. Obviously I'm a Weird Al fan and don't expect to desert him, but 5/1 is in no way a value bet, and I'm a bit disturbed to read that he finished distressed at Carlisle. The two old timers meanwhile have been dropped massively in the weights and could certainly bounce back. 16/1 was still available about both this morning, and it may be worth getting them on-side at least.

We backed Maljimar for the National last Spring despite stamina worries, and he was cantering when he fell. Which makes him noteworthy for the Becher chase and I'll be surprised if he doesn't form a part of my weekend portfolio...

Montenegro remain 9/1 to win Group G, and as long as they do I suggest all long-term get rich trebles should include them!

France last night looked to have shrugged off the shackles of Domenech. That leaves them with a lot of quality. 2012's a long way off, but 12/1 or better could plump up your returns nicely, if you can wait that long!

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Saturday, November 13, 2010

Saturday 13th November

I'm only interested in the Mackeson today:

And for me two horses stand out on price this morning. Neither of them surprising to regulars.

Firstly, Pigeon Island at 22/1 ew first 5 places, or longer win only on betfair.
Pigeon Island landed us a small fortune in March, as the second leg of a double with Imperial Commander. So I'm hardly likely to abandon him now. As then, the key to him is a fast pace over this course, where he can sit at the back and pounce late. The trip doesn't bother me, and the light weight is a big bonus for a small horse. Admittedly he jumps pretty terribly, which is a worry for each way backing, but the price more than compensates for that.

I'm backing him up with Little Josh. He ran a cracker against Weird Al the other week, and we know how highly I regard him. There's tons of pace in this race on paper, which is going to be a problem for him, and I don't see him as an each way proposition. Better to grab some of the late 30s on betfair, and I'd suggest putting up a lay to recover the stake and a bit more, at an ungreedy price - 7s say.

Something like:
Pigeon Island £50 win/£25 place at 22/1 - first 5 places
Little Josh £25 win at 30ish
£2.50 reverse forecast the two.
£10 double Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross (Greatwood hurdle tomorrow) returns £1600
£5 double Little Josh/Manyriverstocross (returns c. £1000)
£10 treble Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross/Weird AL (Hennessey) returns £10000+


Be lucky...

Saturday, November 06, 2010

Saturday 6th November

Stan James seem to have abandoned best odds guaranteed in favour of standing top price on those they fancy drifting - which is pretty much all of my picks today, so that's where I've gone.

1:15 Sandown
If you saw Pepe Simo jump first time out you have to take him on at odds-on, whatever the word from the yard is....this is Sandown after all.

2:20 Sandown
Songe has a favourite's chance. Bible Lord catches the eye - this is the time to get him, as it was last year, and he's fairly handicapped. Looking at Corals prices they agree. I put him in at 4s. Will play at 5s.

2:40 Kelso
Kalahari King should be able to give the weight to Noble Alan, but the market rather says it all. He was one of my favourite horses the other year but has let himself down since. I think I'll sit it out, though I expect I'll be suckered in if he gets any longer!

2:45 Wincanton
Wishful Thinking could be a good horse this year, and is probably fairly priced if you forgive his fall. It's the relative prices of the other two I don't get. Tara Royal was favourite ahead of Robinson Collonges previously and one race shouldn't lead to such a disparity between the two. Tara Royal at 7s looks a sporting bet.

3:20 Wincanton
Wide open contest. I respect the Nicholls runners without liking them much, certainly not at the prices. Ellerslie George was impressive in this last year, and though he's run like a dog since, is back on the right rating in first time blinkers. I'd hoped for longer than 14/1 but it's worth a tickle. And I'll chuck in Irish Raptor as well, 22/1 seems generous.

Something like:
£20 win Fahrisee 3/1
£20 win Bible Lord 5/1
£20 win Tara Royal 7/1
£15 win Ellerslie George 14/1
£10 win Irish Raptor 22/1
£9 fourfold with Ellerslie George returns 27000
£6 fourfold with Irish Raptor returns 28000


Be lucky...

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Saturday 30th October

Well, here we go. I've had an old-fashioned morning with the top races and a tissue marker pen!

The Charlie Hall looks fairly-priced. I'd love to back Knockara Beau but have sworn off as long as that sack of spuds is riding him. The Tother One looks like the one with least negatives, but I'll pass.

2:40 Ascot
A few front runners. I priced From Dawn to Dusk as a 6/1 shot, which is obviously wrong (a rusty morning!), but I guess that's where my money's going.

4:50 Ascot
Sizing Africa seems very weak this morning - drifting to a nice price, but that's a phrase that's damned near bankrupted me over the last couple of years, so caution advised. Panjo Bere has a ton on off topweight, but does like the track, and that counts for a lot here. I think I'll see how the market shapes up closer to the off.

2:35 Newmarket
Not a rational bet, but I've been disappointed by The Cheka all season, but Fallon back in the place means I'll give him one more small chance.

I'm not sure about staking for this new Saturday fun - I think I'll work round £100 a day rather than a fund and see where I am around Xmas time.

From Dawn to Dusk £40 at 10/1
The Cheka £20 at 9/1
£10 treble From Dawn to Dusk/The Cheka/Panjo Bere (returns £18500)
and save £30 for that Ascot race.

And finally, here's a value bet.
Montengro to win Group G at 9/1. Top of group, not even conceded a goal, and drew with us away without their best players. Hype, liabilities and patriotism are keeping this price wrong - I'd go closer to 4/1. And at worst it's a good insurance bet against England cocking up again...


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Thursday, October 28, 2010

Back to Basics

Oh well, trading didn't work out.

The problem was it's so bloody boring. My patience and discipline couldn't cope with it, plus I found myself hating the very sports that made me a professional gambler in the first place.

So, that's me full-circle. After 10 years I'm going right back to the start and settling on being a Saturday Gambler all over again. Hopefully that way, I'll get back to enjoying it, and enjoying the sports I'm betting on, and who knows get back to the sort of success that set me on the journey in the first place. The only down-side is having to go back to the corporate world, though even that should make me appreciate my free days more..

So, if anyone stumbles by seeing if I'm still posting, I'll put some good old-fashioned bets up on Saturdays and big race days, for the fun of it...

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Thursday 19th August

Dirar staunched the flow so far yesterday.

I've got Snow Fairy in at 9/4 today - so a drifting 10/3 looks too big. In the old days I'd be massing the tanks.

Instead:

Capponi/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Suruor/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Balcarce Nov/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
3 x £5ew trebles.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Wednesday 18th August

Hopeless yesterday, (as was my trading - particularly going low on goals in the Spurs game!)


Illustrious Blue/Shropshire/Darley Sun
£10 treble.

(maybe add Topmokea and Dirar to the mix to suit).

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Tuesday 17th August

Let's play York this week.


Harris Tweed/Jakalberry/Almiqdaad £8 treble returns £25000ish

Cavalryman/Jakalberry/Cutlass Bay 6 x £2 forecasts.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Thursday 12th August

Fair Trade looks a backable price this afternoon at Salisbury. Although he's yet to show it I'm fairly sure he's as good as Hearts of Fire and that's favourite. I've taken 16s but 12s still worth a dabble.

As for the USPGA:
Ogilvy 120s
Charles Howell 300s+
Kevin Na (!) 300s+
Leishman 400s+
Matteson 500s+
and Gregory Bourdy 700s+
form my small team of no hopers!

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Monday, August 02, 2010

The Curse of Pricewise

The last three horses I've had decent single bets on (and marked up on here), have all also been Pricewise selections. (I arrived at my conclusions separately!)

What a poisoned chalice this is.

Music Show early price 10/1. I got 8/1. SP 6/1 (I think)
Illustrious Blue early price 11/1. I got 9/1. SP 8/1(or shorter)
Evens and Odds early price 33/1. I got 25/1. SP 20/1

That's at least 12 points his recommendation has cost me (I'd have thought without his recommendation I could have got better than early odds on betfair), and 20 points it's cost a mug punter with a lucky pin.

There's a twist though. I don't have the data to back this assertion up, but I have noticed it for the last couple of years. If Pricewise selections continue to be backed through the day to go off at the sort of prices shown above, they may well run well and win, or indeed sometimes badly. If however the horse drifts back out before the off to the original Pricewise price, or even bigger, the horse WILL NOT win.

Just felt like sharing that...

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Saturday 31st July

Illustrious Blue was fun, but it's been a bleak Goodwood other than that.

£10 double Strawberydaquiri and Evens and Odds
£4 acc Stoute/Moore
£6 combined foecast (total) Nicholls three runners in Stewards Cup

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Thursday 29th July

Having a miserable Goodwood so far.

Am keen on Illustrious Blue today, I have to say. 10/1 looks more than fair.

If I had to put him in a treble (which I obviously do)
Illustrious Blue
Starfish Bay
Myplacelater
£10 to win £7500ish

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Saturday 24th July

Let's have a fire-up at Ascot.

£20 double Suruor and Daryakana returns say £5k

£10 treble adding Pegasus Again returns say £20k

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Saturday 17th July

Golf just about Ok so far...some nice green and some manageable red.

A tenner at the racing:
Move in Time; Snoqualmie Girl and King of Reason £10 treble returns say £11000


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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Wednesday 14th July

My golf bets are somewhat predictable.

Woods 7/1 just has to be kept on-side.
I like Paul Lawrie to be top scotsman (not exactly a deep field)

and for get rich quick purposes:
Paul Lawrie first round leader £10 150/1
and of course Kevin Na £10 at 900/1 (be rude not to)!

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Saturday 10th July

For our Saturday get rich quick madness how about:

Demolition (probably over-exposed but can't ignore the team)
Uruguay (betting on friendlies is for idiots)
World cup final goes to penalties (getting poor here - can't believe there's only been one shoot-out all tournament)
£30 treble returns £11000+



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Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Wednesday 7th July

Midweek golf madness. (Ryan Moore second last week - not much good to me!)

JB Holmes and Bubba Watson £5ew double £9000+


Newmarket - I can see why Pricewise has gone for Music Show - this is her last chance - but the stiff finish can only help her here.

How about £10 treble Pastoral Player/Music Show and tonight's game to go to penalties - say £7500

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Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Tuesday 6th July

Let's go for £20 on both the semis to be decided on penalties - returns upwards of £550.


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Saturday, July 03, 2010

Saturday 3rd July

Sorry folks, can't find a long-priced treble to waste a tenner on today - not yet anyway!


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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Wednesday 30th June

Midweek golf madness:

£5ew double Gregory Havret and Ryan Moore, returns at least £12000


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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tuesday 29th June

I think I'll repeat a football bet of a few days ago, and hope it's slightly more successful!

Portugal 0-0 and Japan 0-0 (or no goalscorer)
£10 double returns £550.

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Sunday, June 27, 2010

Sunday 27th June

Obviously, you have to keep Germany winning on penalties on-side at times like this.

In the Irish Derby none of the main protagonists appeal. Puncher Clynch has as good form as most of them, so 20/1 is a no-brainer.

And Mexico could give Argentina a, probably fruitless, run for their money.

£10 double Puncher Clynch/Germany win on penalties returns £2000
£10 treble German draw/Mexico draw.Puncher Clynch returns £2350
£10 treble Puncher Clynch/Germany penalties/Mexico returns £14000

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Saturday 26th June

These knock-out games should see the world cup get even cagier.

£10 double both games today 0-0 (or no goalscorer) returns £450
£10 treble the above plus Rajik wins Northumberland Plate (for fun!) returns c£7500

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Saturday, June 19, 2010

Saturday 19th June

Mix the football and racing up for today's silly strikes.

Medicean Man
Munsef
Ghana
Holland
Denmark
£15 acca returns £16000

The same but Denmark draw
£10 acca returns £14000

Friday, June 18, 2010

Friday 18th June

Golfers doing Ok - early days...

Horses - hopeless. I've shut up shop at Ascot for the week, and will just do these "get rich quick" bets in case my notebook horses all win without me!

Bullet Train
Music Show
Mikhail Glinka
£25 win treble returns £3800

£5 five fold the above three and
Slovenia/USA
Serbia/Germany
to be draws returns £9000

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Thursday, June 17, 2010

Thursday 17th June

Two nice priced second places yesterday - not that I was each way !

The Gold Cup has me looking at outsiders.
Bannaby, Purple Moon and Darley Sun would all have chances better than their odds suggest to my eyes. Forecasts maybe.

Prior to that let's do three £10 trebles hoping to put us in position A
Dinkum Diamond/Principal Role and the above three.


And I'm sure you're desperate to know which golfers to avoid this week.
I simply can't let Woods go unbacked at 10/1 and have added Dustin Johnston and KJ Choi to the mix.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Wednesday 16th June

I've hardly watched flat racing this year - only the top races. This disengagement showed yesterday when I failed to get to grips with Ascot at all.

You've been warned. AT least Pricewise is keen on a couple of my notebook horses today.

Meezan
Glass Harmonium
Riggins
Blue Maiden (one last chance with Fallon back on)
4 x £8 trebles
1 x £3 acc

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Tuesday 15th June

Have to aim a few guns at Ascot...


Dalghar and Gold Trail both look nicely priced.
£20 double returns £3000
£5 treble Makfi returns £2750
£5 treble Siyouni returns £5250


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Monday, June 14, 2010

Monday 14th June

How about a lack of goals today.

Japan/Cameroon and Italy/Paraguay £10 no goal scorer double - returns say £500

And a Gold Cup ante post tickle £15 Bannaby 33/1

And the treble £5 returning £8800 (say).

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Saturday 12th June

I suppose I'd best throw a couple of long-shot darts at the football, in between trading, which I hope I do better than I did on France game last night!

Altidore top goalscorer £5 500/1
There's a chance USA could travel a fair way into the tournament.

Di Natale/Italy £5 300/1
Much nicer price than the sexy selections...

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Wednesday 9th June

Mid-week golf madness.

I'm following Steve Palmer's headline choices this week, so hardly original!

Brian Gay 28/1
Ignacio Garrido 25/1
£15 each way double.

Friday, June 04, 2010

Friday 4th June

Or my 22nd wedding anniversary!

The derby/oaks trials all looked pretty miserable. Just afterwards a couple of listed races at Goodwood caught the eye, so how about a sneaky double on those two, and then mix things up a bit.

£10 Snow Fairy/Rewilding
£10 treble Snow Fairy/Sariska/Rewilding
£5ew double Meeznah/Ted Spread

Monday, May 31, 2010

Monday 31st May

Bank Holiday Mondays are mugpunter doubles days, and todays lucky jockey is Paul Hanagan at Carlisle.

15 x £3 doubles
£2 acc.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Saturday 29th May

Rain, and pretty solid short priced horses in the listed races, so I can't even muster the enthusiasm for a cheeky racing treble today.

(It's a shame I didn't post up the mug punter doubles I had on Fallon at Ayr midweek - that would have wiped out the losses on here...)

Forgive me, but I'll stick to trading the tennis and the play-off final.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Wednesday 26th May

The midweek golf madness hasn't gotten much beyond the first round the last few weeks. Hardly likely to change this week!

Oliver Fisher 80/1
Justin Rose 80/1
£5ew double

Monday, May 24, 2010

Monday 24th May

Anyone looking for a bet on the tennis - I've been impressed with Aravane Rezai the last few weeks. She has a great draw to the final, if she can get past Venus, and she beat her comfortably enough just over a week ago.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Saturday 22nd May

I'm off to Oxford for a break, so having done my £2 Scoop6 certainty I'll just do a few doubles and trebles on the better races today and tomorrow.

(a) Fencing Master 5/1
(b) Aajel 7/2
(c) Music Show 4/1
(d) Blue Maiden 28/1
(e) Blue Jack 11/2

ac £10 double for £290
ab £10 double for £270
ad £10 double for £1730
abc £10 treble for £1340
bce £10 treble for £1400
bde £5 treble for £4200
abce £5 quad for £4300
abde £5 quad for £25000

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Wednesday 19th May

Mid-week golf madness surpasses itself this week.

Stephen Dodd 100/1 (or 90/1)
Rory Sabbatini 40/1
£5ew - to return let's say £20k



And let's do a classics treble - though I'm far from sure all three will turn up let alone win! (I'll hold off doing doubles for that reason).

Blue Maiden Irish 1000 20/1
Akdarena Oaks 12/1
Workforce Derby 12/1
£10 treble returning £35k

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Saturday 15th May

I'm keen on The Cheka each way today, and keep looking for other eac way opportunities for the doubles but am struggling...

Friday, May 14, 2010

Friday 14th May

The Division 1 and 2 play-offs, first legs. £10 four fold returning £1200


Today's racing.
Inler
Manifest
Fatanah
£15 treble returning £1200
plus Crackentorp
£5 four fold returning £4600

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Thursday 13th May

Another York treble today.

I like the 7/1 about Flying Cloud - the front two are probably taking too much out of the market with Midday's penalty a big minus, and Sariska unlikely to be suited by small field pace of race over this distance.

I'll add Chabal (rock solid Sandown run) and Rainbow Peak (proverbial group horse in a handicap).

£25 to return around £2500

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Wednesday 12th May

Tennis bet didn't last long yesterday!

I think we can skip the golf this week, and have a modest tenner treble at York instead.

Tartan Gunna
Avite
Mullionmilenhour
to return, say £3000.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Tuesday 11th May

Fancy wasting a tenner on the Madrid Masters Tennis?


Murray 28/1 (or 33s)
Martinez-Sanchez 40/1 (or 33s)
£5ew double

Saturday, May 08, 2010

Saturday 8th May

Some doubles etc to stop me getting stuck into the racing.

Lingfield
Golden Stream 5/1
Ceilidh House 11/4
Bullet Train 11/4
£10 win treble

The Big Handicaps
Love of Tara 20/1
Dandy Boy 16/1
Ciceron 10/1
£5ew treble

and 15 x £2 doubles the 6 horses.

Friday, May 07, 2010

Friday 7th May

Small Chester trebles for interest.

Suruor/Prompter/Harbinger £10 treble
Suruor/Prompter/Once More Dubai £5 treble

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Wednesday 5th May

Mid-week golf madness, with a hint of Chester.

Harrington 28/1/Desert Sea 12/1 £10ew double

Harrington 28/1/Colsaerts 55/1 £5ew double

Monday, May 03, 2010

Sunday 3rd May

Flat racing has so much wrong with it right now:

It's always had it's main problem - the horses are only around for five minutes before they become stud/hurdlers/dogmeat/glue. It's hard to come to care about any of the horses, and the endless waves of new horses make it unusual to find races where you know the nuances of all the horses (unlike jumps racing).

It's also always had uncommunicative trainers. However, for the last couple of years Paul Nicholls and a few others have shown us what we should reasonably expect from the likes of Stoute and O'Brien. Their apparent deep-seated antipathy towards me as a punter has led eventually to a deep-seated antipathy towards them from me.

Add to the mix an unending summer diet of tight, moderate, handicaps of around 10 runners where it's impossible to keep on top of the form, or to care about any of the horses.

Garnish with clerks overwatering, seemingly under instructions to make the above races even more unfathomable, either by providing false ground, or by messing with draw biases.

And yesterday the icing on the cake. The 1000 Guineas, a Classic for fuck's sake, had a 15 length draw bias only a handful of jockeys seemed to know about.

The Derby was the first race I ever went to. The 2000 Guineas the first race on which I had a proper man-sized bet. Now I find I just can't be bothered with it. Sad.

Sunday, May 02, 2010

Sunday 2nd May

I have a modest place double running onto Blue Maiden which I could do with landing after slightly too busy a week chasing big wins!

I'll add a couple of tenners today.

A "value" tissues/ratings fourfold:
£10 Blue Maiden/Fulham/Liverpool/Sunderland - £16k+

And a "sky-blue thinking" waste of money:
£10 Blue Maiden/No goalscorer Liverpool Chelsea/Darren Bent first goalscorer - 17k+


I remain keen on Blue Maiden each way at around 20s. I seem to be entirely alone on this!

Saturday, May 01, 2010

Saturday 1st May

I'll probably watch/trade the football and tennis and avoid getting dragged into flat racing today. So I'll top up on the defensive/interest bets.

Fencing Master looks the last remaining horse at value in the 2000 Guineas (plus possibly Awzaan). The Dewhurst form has been franked this season, and given his inexperience and trip in that race you'd think he'd have every chance of stepping up considerably on that.

£10 ew double Fencing Master 14/1 and Blue Maiden 25/1

Fencing Master 14/1
Halicarnassus 10/1 (personally priced him up much shorter despite not fancying)
Horseradish 4/1
3 x £5 doubles and £10 treble

Friday, April 30, 2010

Friday 30th April

I've added a couple more nonsensical Guineas doubles!

An Andrew Balding special:
Lord Zenith 100/1 and Pipette 33/1 £5ew double

and topped up the Blue Maiden portfolio:
Viscount Nelson 40/1 and Blue Maiden 25/1 £5ew double


The golf bets are already blown to pieces...

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Wednesday 28th April

Midweek golf madness is back!

Steve Palmer makes a good case for Adam Scott this week, and Kjeldsen likes the Spanish course, and Oliver Fisher did me an each way favour last week.

Scott 50/1/Kjeldsen 18/1 £5ew double
Scott 50/1/O Fisher 30/1 £5ew double


I was going to do a treble at Ascot to stop me getting involved, but a non runner has reduced it to a paltry double.
£20 win Mojave Moon 13/2 and Mon Cadeaux 11/2


£40 staked

Monday, April 26, 2010

Monday 26th April

Let's do some Guineas doubles, with Stan James going "non runner no bet".

I liked the Nell Gwyn performance by Music Show and think Fallon would like to ride here. Blue Maiden also ran a cracker and seems to have slipped under the radar. She may go to the Irish instead so the non runner no bet concession is essential here.

Canford Cliffs was beaten fair and square by Dick Turpin and so the latter looks at least more fairly priced, especially with Ryan Moore up. Inler appeals at the price too.


Music Show 6/1 and Inler 16/1 £10 win double
Music Show 6/1 and Dick Turpin £10 win double
Blue Maiden 25/1 and Inler 16/1 £7.50 ew double
Blue Maiden 25/1 and Dick Turpin 16/1 £7.50 ew double.


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Saturday, April 24, 2010

Saturday 24th April

I've thought of a "fund" for this dormant blog.

Trading is going slowly but safely. It's a dull process though and I've been finding myself doing more "get rich quick" bets to accompany the grind.

I may as well make them a regular post on here. Of course these are "left-field" big price bets - hitting one out of the ballpark - and as such there are going to be stupefying losing runs. Still, you may be able to pick out some nuggets.

Today's swing and misses:

Spurs 6/1+ ("Draw no bet" may be a better option for a proper bet. Or the Asians. I'll lay Man Utd for trading purposes. 6/1 is too big though).

Portsmouth 6/1+ (Also too big on ratings. Team news would be imperative before a proper bet, and again "draw no bet" or asians may be safer approach).

Carlisle 7/1+ (The RP odds compilers football league is always of interest. Two of the compilers nap this in an attempt to land the title)

Oh Crick 4/1+ (Interesting trading possibility, given Twist Magic may not start, and there's a chance a few will cut their throats up front).

Nostringsattached 12/1 (I have this ante post at 25/1. Shame I also have a non runner at 25/1! Pricewise has forced him into 12s and lower now.)

Glass harmonium 4/1 (Another Stoute horse to improve like fine wine? Not interested in actual bet at the prices though)


15 x £2 doubles
The three football matches £10 treble returning £3k+
The three horses £10 treble returning £3k+
Six-fold £1 returning £100k+
And I'll throw £4 at the Scoop6

£55 staked.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Saturday 10th April

With our golfers going along so well, I'm not sure I need to top up on my National Horses.

The other races are attractive and I've done some hit and hope doubles - mainly on Northern horses - which I'll share instead:

Noble Alan
Quewetwo
Au Courant
Leslingtaylor
Tale of Tanganyka

Thursday, April 08, 2010

Thursday 8th April

My get rich quick doubles for the weekend's big events:
Kim/Poulter/Casey
doubled with
Dream Alliance/Maljimar/Hallo Bud

As for the Masters - the last time Tiger Woods was 6/1 was the 2006 Open. I remember it well because everyone was against him, and we made a small killing. I'll aim to do the same again.

Then I'll fritter away money on the likes of Kevin Na!


Today at Aintree.

Nick Mordin is all over Possol today. Can't see it myself, but he has made me think the place portion of the each way, or betting without Big Bucks, or the bottom half of a forecast might have some legs, with a weak field outside the favourite.

I can miss Imperial Commander and Pigeon Island at the prices (and Barizan) having filled my boots last time. The one horse I will give one last chance to at big odds is Pistolet Noir in the last, though Nick Williams does look to have done a good bit of business there! Speaking of him, I'll stay with Me Voici.

Saturday, April 03, 2010

Saturday 3rd April

I see Kevin Pullein has stolen my thunder this morning, but when I looked at Man Utd's price last night I had to rub my eyes.

How important is Wayne Rooney to them?

That's about all you need to decide today. United have gone from 5/4 to better than 7/4 on his absence. And with "draw no bet" (or 0 Asian) from around 1.55 to 1.9.

Personally, I don't think any player is worth anything like 10 percentage points...

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Tuesday 30th March

Bordeaux at Evens to qualify looks too big.

It looks priced on Lyon's reputation rather than the form of the last couple of years.

I only hope that doesn't preface another 7-1 scoreline tonight!

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Saturday 27th March

It's been a strange week for me. After Cheltenham's riches I seemed to take my eye off the "trading" ball, and only luck has saved me from seriously frittering away some hard work.

I'm busy this weekend and the break should allow me to refocus on the more mundane lifestyle of a trader.

As left-field bets go, this is up there. How about all the big three to lose today? Hardly likely I know, but the games look harder than the prices imply and none of them have been immune from dropping cheap points this season. You can get over 500/1 the treble.

As for the Lincoln, no idea as ever, and I'm determined to ditch heritage handicaps from my portfolio. Penitent does seem to skew the market a touch though and I'd rather have three or four running for me at the same price as he is - so my darts fall on horses on - Prime Exhibit, Mull of Killough and Tiger Reigns.



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Saturday, March 20, 2010

Saturday 20th March

Well that was a fun week! Back to the trading today...


Birmingham continue to be underrated. To be honest this match has draw written all over it. I think that's the way I'll play it, keeping 0-0 well on-side early doors also.


Get rich quick at Uttoxeter.
Three horses favourably mentioned in my notebook trade at nice looking prices today. It would be rude not to do a small treble!
Sarde 2:05 at 12/1
Helpston 2:40 at 8/1
Fortification 3:15 at 25/1

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Friday, March 19, 2010

Friday 19th March

I've got Imperial Commander and Soldatino at 14s, and am happy with that.

If you're looking for a couple of off-the-wall bets how about a couple of 33/1 shots.

Barwell Bridge shouldn't be good enough to win a Triumph, but I'm not sure these are up to much and the ground and pace should be right up his street.

Pigeon Island has look threatening a few this this year (before falling!), and I've had him earmarked for a big handicap - why not the Grand Annual!

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Thursday 18th March

All my big bets and ante post tickles fall hopelessly by the wayside, and I was pretty dispirited after the Queen Mum yesterday. Still, that's Cheltenham for you and Spirit River cheered me up soon after.

Not as much as the 90/1 I got on Cue Card though!

Darts day today, and I'll be keeping Ferdy Murphy, Venetia Williams and Emma Lavelle on-side.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Wednesday 17th Cheltenham

Somersby and three other seconds for me yesterday....that would have been me on tilt for the rest of the festival in olden days


(On the other hand my 400/1 on CSKA Moscow is still running!)


Today was supposed to be Weird Al and Kalahari King's day. Hopefully the latter will do better than last year's heart-breaker. I'm on at 14s so have everything crossed.

The other horses I like today are all each way propositions.
Manyriverstocross is my "stable" horse for this year, and this looks the perfect race for him. 33/1 was lovely, 16/1 is still too big.

Knockara Beau was given a terrible ride last time, let him give it a go for the front today and he might sneak a place in a race that's usually carnage incorporated.

Spirit River is another horse looking to uphold Tote Trophy form.

Mix them all up and get rich quick!

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Tuesday 16th March

For those who want my get rich quick notions.

Somersby would be my idea of bet of the day, and my pin has come down on Khyber Kim in the Champion.

I'm going to do the double, and then treble them up with these four outsiders (which I'll double with each other and do an ew acc)

Flat Out (hoping he's Ebaziyan mark 2)
New Alco (because I seem to back him every year, and the Ferdy Murphy factor)
Monkerhostin (because he won a proper race recently so only needs to take to the fences to outclass this lot)
Easter Legend (because Emma Lavelle is the new Ferdy Murphy).


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Saturday, March 13, 2010

Saturday 13th March

Some possible horses to back to lay shorter in-running:
Knockavella Ayr 3:50 (possible unopposed front runner with solid win chance)
Bowleaze Sand 2:30 (loves track, races prominently)
Aathur Sand 3:05 (travels so strongly)


Birmingham have a terrible record against teams above them and Blackburn have a perfect 0-9 away against teams above them. The compilers seem to have this in mind with their prices this morning and I'd say they've overreacted, as do my ratings. Birmingham should keep things tighter than Hull managed and I'd be a layer of Everton at 6/4. Spurs look to be badly missing Aaron Lennon (not a sentence I ever imagined writing) and Blackburn are slowly improving. 4/9 looks very short for a team that's flopped at home a few times this year.


Fancy an each way double on two big priced horses next week? It's the place element I'm interested in - close to 100/1.

Manyriverstocross in the Neptune 25/1 (I really fancy this horse to be in the mix with the step up in trip to suit and his 3rd in the Tote trophy rock solid).
Carruthers in the Gold Cup 50/1 (66/1 available). Not really a win proposition and will get no soft lead, but this may be a small field come the off and his small field record reads 112111.

I'll post every day of the meeting with similarly inspired/stupid ideas!!

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Saturday, March 06, 2010

Saturday 6th March

Refreshed from a few days by the seaside. More refreshed than my wife anyway, who is busy throwing-up all last week's seafood. Only a matter of time before I join her!


Fulham. Always difficult to be objective about your own side, but I priced them at 6/4 for this. And that was before I saw the injury worries Spurs have in midfield. Spurs would be happy with a draw and I'd happily lay them at 6/4.


For get rich quick purposes I'll be looking at stable-horse Ellerslie George (though vibes have this as a prep), and Au Courant (who remains worryingly long considering Pricewise tipped him). Line Artic won't get a better chance at Kempton. And if you want two old-timers to cross your fingers and hope for a bounce back to form at big prices - how about Tot O' Whiskey and Helen's Vision. More likely to be pulled up though!

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Saturday 27th February

So my gamble on Miss Mitch disappears down the drain. The prices now look about right. I've got a free bet on Private Be (thanks to Pricewise for once), and will be looking to trade Nacarat assuming he goes clear.


I think Birmingham are slightly too long against Wigan. Their lack of goals at home makes them very appealing for odds compilers to oppose. I'll back them at Evens and cover 0-0.


My going for glory bet this week is terrible value but is definitely going for glory!
Private Be around 12/1
Birmingham 0-0 (no goalscorer) around 8/1
Chelsea 0-0 (no goalscorer) around 12/1
England/Ireland draw around 20/1
Italy/Scotland draw around 20/1
10 silly trebles, and 25p (or whatever breaks the bookie maximum) on the 700,000/1 acc!!

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Saturday 20th February

There was an old fashioned reality TV bet last night. Darius 3/1 to beat Bernie Nolan in a straight match. I'd have been close to Evens both. Shame I wasn't back in my old betting days slogging one out of the park!


I like Knockara Beau this afternoon against Burton Port. Granted, the latter has looked impressive beating nothing. but I'll stick to the Weird Al form, and, besides, for trading purposes Knockara Beau will hopefully front run. Corals 9/4 looks closer to the right price than the 11/4 available.

In the unfathomable big race, one way in might be to expect poor runs from all Welsh National horses, and go for the upset. That'll get rid of the 6 faves, so you could lay those 6, or find a couple of unlikely ones (Pomme Tiepy and Oscar Park maybe) or play the forecasts on some of the others.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Saturday 13th February

There's an old-fashioned bet today, but sadly Pricewise has ruined the price for anyone right now. Manyriverstocross should be perfectly suited to the Tote Trophy conditions this afternoon. I've had an old time punt (though sadly not with the ammunition of yesteryear).

He'll also be the cornerstone of some sneaky get rich quick bets.


Strictly on ratings Portsmouth should be more like Evens against Southampton today. Obviously there's good reasons why they're not, but they still seem a silly price to me.

Sunday, February 07, 2010

Sunday 7th Feb

Notre Pere looks a backable price today at 5s....

I also remember four years ago Scotland costing me a fortune when they pushed the French pack the length of the field for a famous victory. France were 1.1 that day.

Happy to see Kalahari King and Weird Al finalise their Cheltenham preparations so nicely - looks like Wednesday is going to be my big day this year, not Thursday!

Saturday, February 06, 2010

Saturday 6th February

It looks a bumper day's sport doesn't it?

Here's my take on the action.

Liverpool/Everton I'll wait until in-play.

Italy can keep close to Ireland for a bit – I think I'll back them on the half-time handicap and look to lay off in-running for a free bet. Probably worth laying Ireland at 1.03 as well – very little downside after all and just a chance of nice trade.

England/Wales rugby - I think I'll have a small trade on the draw hoping to lay off for a nice free bet, and then re-lay if it gets nailbitingly close, by which time I may have played in the Villa/Spurs game.

Horses. Tchico Polos should charge into a lead at Sandown – based on previous races – so should trade lower than currently, and who knows if he can get Punchestowns at it over the railway fences he could trade very low.

The three horses I'll be playing with him in get rich trebles and acc are
I'msingingtheblues – loves course, probably trading too high because Ruby not riding, yet C Williams usually rides.
Silk Affair – Gerald Delamere has a feel for these races and makes a good case
Lacdoudal – loves the course and whilstit's a love-bet really, this race has the look of an old guard's race.

I'll also keep an eye on Weird Al at Wetherby as he remains my main Sun Alliance horse.

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Saturday, January 23, 2010

Saturday 23rd January

I thought it was time to update this page. My new trading career is going OK, not exactly going to get rich with the feeble fund/stakes I'm currently using, but long-term think it's a goer. The main problem I have is I keep on being dragged back to thinking like a gambler, especially on the horses, but I'm getting there.

Obviously it makes it hard to provide much meaningful thoughts on here. However, I am involved in a number of longer-term markets which is something to talk about, and I do still do weekend get rich quick bets. So I'll look to update this Saturdays at least..


Thoughts for today.
Good-looking cards at Ascot and Haydock.
I'll do get rich trebles around two horses who'd be in my cyber stable if I still had one.
Mr Strachan and Ellerslie George.
The three horses I'll perm them with are all cheeky goes at much more fancied horses.
Fix The Rib, Knockara Beau and Cape Tribulation.


Longer-term markets
FA Cup
My approach to this, for the first time in years, has been to go against the big 4, and look at the next most likely (Spurs/Villa/Man City and Fulham). So far, so good, with Man Utd and Liverpool already gone. I traded all bets to leave me with no liability after round three, and have re-invested a few quid on Fulham and Villa on the basis they could trade lower if there are upsets elsewhere, but will look to go back to no liability prior to 5th round draw. (Protecting the bank at all costs is the key mantra these days!).

Premiership
I surfed Man City downwards, but now they're back where they started I'm wondering whether I should do it again, but it's probably pointless. I think Arsenal are flattered to be where they are and are now trading at what could be their lowest point. They are already my biggest red but I'll increase liability to my (modest) maximum ahead of their big games coming up.

African Nations Cup
This has worked well for me so far, and I'm all green bar Ivory Coast. Will fiddle around from now on, and hope Drogba and co fall by the wayside soon.

US Open Tennis
Have a small trade on Safina – that side opening up, will hope a tired Henin falls away, but will look to turn in to a free bet at first sign of danger.
Del Potro was my trading choice on the other side, which isn't looking so healthy!

Celebrity Big Brother
Without watching a second of the show I still look in good shape, no nasty-looking red, and hopefully Nicola or Stephanie can get a late charge in past a fading Vinnie Jones.

Cheltenham
Not much in way of ante post action, as you'd expect, but haven't been able to resist double figures on :
Weird Al in the RSA (hoping Diamond Harry doesn't dot up today!)
Pistolet Noir in the Triumph
Kalahari King in the Queen Mum