£500 Challenge - Football 30 April

Let's kick this challenge off. It's not exactly a knocking bet but I do have it as value.

Reading £12.50 to beat Newcastle at Evens (or a shade better on the Asian handicap on Betfair).

I have Reading at 5/6 for this - they are going great guns still, and can score compared to a Newcastle side that have only scored 3 goals in 8 matches.

£12.50 = 2.5% of starting fund.

We will have 3 bet levels.
2.5% for normal bets;
5% for coming down the pitch for good thump.
10% for odds-on certainty type bets - eg Australia to win the Ashes.

This is a good deal more aggressive than my usual 0.5% to 1% range but hopefully this side of foolhardy.

I'll put running totals at the bottom of each posting. It is my intention to try to find a bet most days.

A new start - part 2

So, here I am in sunny Shropshire. Thanks for all the kind words.

Time for a new approach to the blog. But first a final rundown of the blog to this point, and a review of the 2006/7 jumps season.

Overall - all points bet on the blog since inception returns 101%. Which aint gonna make you rich, but at least I haven't bankrupted anyone!

The football bets for this season have returned 106% which is more like it.

Sadly, the racing hasn't fared so well - stuck at 89% - something that can be explained by the review below.


Jumps season 2006/7
Despite a terrible January and February this turned out to be a pretty decent season.

Novice chases in particular were a source of profit - returning 128%. I think I watched pretty much every single decent novice chase this year and had a comprehensive profile of most horses.

Handicap hurdles, on the other hand were terrible - only 83% returns - and I started to turn my back on the more competitive handicaps accordingly.

Ante post bets continued to be very profitable (despite long losing runs) - returning 134%. It's fair to say the 400/1 on Ebaziyan had a major effect! I don't advise ante post bets on the blog, which looks a shame now!

And my "all weather experiment" with Mr Toad proved surprisingly successful - at 112% returns, although to be fair Stoneacre Lad and Orchard Supreme accounted for virtually all of that! Still, it's something I'll continue with for next season. Again, these bets weren't on here as we used theracingforum.com as our experimental lab.

Most importantly were two very nice big-odds winning trebles. The first, repeating a Wincanton treble from the previous season, I landed a big payday when Petitjean, Parsons Legacy and Crow Wood obliged. Later I repeated this with L'Antartique, Taranis and Inglie Drever at Cheltenham.

The first treble came when I was doing the daily tissue for escorialracing.com If those bets had been accounted for on here, then the racing side of things would be nicely in profit. That said, I didn't actually advise the treble, although anyone familiar with my approach will know that I always play a modest 1pt on accumulators on my most solid bets.

The three horses in my second treble were all highlighted as bets here, but again no treble advised.

Overall the horse fund experienced the usual over the year - long slow periods of standing still or declining, punctuated by the step-jumps of the big wins.

All of this I hope explains why I'm a bit frustrated by the blog. So, I've decided to change it slightly. And here's how.

I started off my racing fund all those years ago with £500. I bet very conservatively and have never looked back. I recently suggested £500 as a fair size starting bank with a view to some fun and potential long-term growth, and without too much despair should the bank be busted.

It occurred to me on my break I could aim for something similar here. At the start of the year I was thinking about a fund that "pressed up" on what I considered good bets in all my other funds, but the terrors of January led me to abandon it.

I think I'll reincarnate it as the £500 challenge. (I will set up a fund myself to do this for real - though proportionally larger!) So, recommended bets will be found on here, with real-sized staking. We'll see how we get on.

My normal approach is to to to turn over the fund ten times in a season, make 10% profit and so double my bank. I don't know that this challenge can realistically expect that - since it will be based on a more aggressive staking system than I usually use, though probably on selections at the shorter price range. The aggressive staking will put the fund at far more risk of going bankrupt than I normally allow (you've been warned), but the more refined approach should in theory lead to a higher strike rate. That said, you can see from the breakdown of the racing season that it isn't selectivity that is the key to my profit - the scatter-gun seems to be more successful. So , it will be an interesting experiment for me and hopefully a bit of fun. Feel free to join in.

I will still put up tissues for main racing, and advices, but without points etc - to save me monitoring fictional profits. I'll continue to update you on the overall performance of my own funds.

A New Start - 15th April

I'm moving to Shropshire tomorrow. Not sure The Tooting Tissue is going to sound right up there!

We're with the in-laws for a couple of weeks, before moving into rented accommodation in Shifnal whilst we acclimatise and set about finding a new home.

I'll be off-line for at least a couple of weeks before I get sorted, so there won't be any posts on here for a while.

When I'm off I may re-think the blog - it's been struggling and whilst I did have a couple of tough months at the start of the year, and a pretty horrid Aintree, I have actually had a pretty successful start to the year overall and the blog doesn't seem to reflect this. I think I'll need to either post up every single thing (which would be plain tiresome), or focus on quality bets.
We'll see.

Back soon.

Racing - Aintree Saturday 14th April

Worst I can remember feeling Grand National morning - after two tough blank days. With loads of football as well (after a blank bank holiday monday) it could be a long day!



Aintree 4:15 - Grand National
Prices are on another posting below. Not much has changed.

I remain committed to Eurotrek. Nicholls' horses have been running poorly and that is off-putting. However, Eurotrek has had a totally different preparation to the Cheltenham horses and I'll hope that he's in different shape. Any winner early on today for the stable would be encouraging though.

Of the rest I have my usual bulging portfolio of ante post dabbles. Idle Talk could get into a nice rhythm and if Victor Chandler are still offering it you can bet him with a money back offer should he fall. Of the Irish, Point Barrow satisfies the trends boys and I keep looking at (and nibbling at - 250/1 down) Homer Wells.



Aintree 2:15
Fair Along 9/4
Dont Push It 7/2
Twist Magic 7/2
Jack The Giant 9/1

Personally I think Fair Along should be favourite here. I have had Twist Magic penned in for this race, but, again, Nicholls' Cheltenham horses have run deplorably so far, and not looked too bright according to paddock pundits.

Fair Along (like Detroit City) has to put poor runs behind him and may have done too much this season and all that. But at the prices I feel obliged to be forgiving and play.

Fair Along 5pts win at 11/4+


Aintree 2:50
Detroit City 6/4
Afsoun 7/1
Asian Maze 11/1
Jazz messenger 12/1
Gaspara 12/1
Al Eile 16/1

As with the above DC may be gone for the season. On the other hand on this season's form up to Cheltenham he's way better than these. Asian Maze has run like a dog all year though this did suit perfectly last year. Gaspara is interesting. Pipe snr must have known quite how much was in hand when topping up his pension fund and just maybe Gaspara is group material.

Detroit City 5pts win at 7/4+

Racing - Aintree 13th April

Tough first day. Aintree marks the end of my betting year and end of the jumps season. I usually get a last minute boost from the meeting - and I could do without the opposite happening this year!

Aintree 2:00
Aces Four 3/1
Ungaro 4/1
Turko 6/1
Killaghy Castle 7/1
Faasel 9/1
Boychuck 20/1
Dom Dorgeval 20/1

As with yesterday I have two here who let me down at the festival. Ungaro didn't seem to take to the track - or more accurately was ridden as though they believed that would be the case beforehand and were protecting him. This should be much more his cup of tea and I don't need much encouragement to get involved again. The track should also help Turko but I can't summon up quite as much enthusiasm.

Ungaro 5pts win at 11/2+



Aintree 2:35
Wichita Lineman Evens
Massinis Maguire 4/1
Silverburn 11/2
Imperial Commander 20/1
Wee Forbees 20/1

The form for this race looks very solid and I'd see them finishing in this order. If only life was that simple!


Aintree 3:10
Well chief Evens
Taranis 4/1
Monets Garden 11/2
Hi Cloy 12/1

Taranis did us a huge favour when winning at the festival and forming part of a big treble. However, he does look up against it here - the allowances in the Ryanair definitely helped. I expect I'll have a modest bet on him nearer the time, and on Hi Cloy who was the cornerstone of a successful Aintree last year.


Aintree 3:45
Irish Raptor 12/1
Brooklyn Breeze 12/1
Briery Fox 12/1
Umbrella Man 12/1
Le Volfoni 20/1
On The Net 20/1
Milan Deux Mille 20/1
Lord of Illusion 20/1
Turthen 20/1
Iron Man 33/1
Latimers Place 33/1
Hakim 33/1
Patman Du Charmil 33/1
Risk Accessor 33/1
Lost Time 33/1

Wide open. Umbrella Man is a fragile beast and may have been amiss last time. Nothing wrong the time before that though and at the prices has to be a small bet. I can see Risk Acessor placing off bottomweight and Lord of Illusion and Milan Deux Mille also take the eye but only at fair prices.

Umbrella Man 3pts win at 25/1+


Aintree 4:20
De Soto 7/2
Osana 7/2
Ouninpohja 4/1
Tyson 9/1
Enforce 20/1

I've priced Osana on the basis I really thought he'd go close in the Supreme Novices if given the chance, and I thought he ran a cracker in the County to stay on off a throat-cutting pace that played into the hands of the likes of Ouninpohja. The latter will no doubt come to win the race but probably find yet another way of losing!

Osana 3pts win at 4/1


Aintree 4:55
CopsaleLad 13/2
Reveillez 9/1
Undeniable 10/1
Lankawi 10/1
New Alco 11/1
Lacdoudal 11/1
Green Belt Flyer 11/1
Limerick Boy 20/1
Pole Star 20/1
Lou Du Moulin Mas 20/1

Some exposed rogues here. New Alco was one of my festival losers - I had a nice four figure sum running onto him at Cheltenham and he couldn't even place! He does look exposed and Aintree on quicker ground unlikely to suit as well as his favourite track, but as you'll have guessed I will keep him on-side, especially in the get rich quick trebles. However, two lurkers at the bottom of the weights here look worth a normal bet. Undeniable still looks well-treated and Lankawi may have more improvement in him, not something you can say about many of these.

Undeniable 3pts win at 14/1+
Lankawi 3pts win at 14/1+

Football - 14th April

More silly season prices, just hope we don't draw another blank!

Reading 5pts beat Fulham at 10/11

Sheff Utd 5pts beat West Ham at 6/4

Birmingham 5pts beat Southampton at 11/10

Coventry 5pts beat Preston at 7/4

C Palace 5pts beat Wolves at 8/5

Ipswich 5pts beat Derby at 9/4

Millwall 5pts beat Tranmere at 11/10

Grimsby (away) 5pts beat Accrington at 5/2

Barnet 5pts beat Bristol Rovers at 7/4 (6/4 OK)

Sunday: Chester 5pts beat Shrewsbury at 2/1 (7/4 OK).


Someone asked me how I felt about Chris Coleman leaving Fulham.

Here's the best players over the last few years in a Fulham shirt.
Edwin Van De Saar
Steve Finnan
Sean Davis
Steed Malbranque
Luis Boa Morte
Louis Saha

If you sell all your best players, what on earth can you expect?

Coleman was only brought in (and a lovely gamble it was - 66/1) because Mo hadn't the money to put a 'name' in place. I think he's done a great job to keep Fulham competitive with a team of declining quality. In fact he's done way better than I expected. He's very well thought of at Crystal Palace and I could see him going there soon enough, or maybe Wales will come calling. Whatever, he should get another chance.






Bournemouth 5pts beat Swansea at 9/5

Aintree - Thursday 12th April

Aintree 2:00
Mighty Man 7/4
Inglis Drever 9/4
Black Jack Ketchum 3/1
Blazing Bailey 9/1

BJK makes the market yet again. This course is much more Mighty Man's cup of tea than Inglis Drever's. However, that looks more than factored into the available prices and yet again Inglis Drever is too big a price. I'll play now, and also may put a bid for when he gets behind in-running.

Inglis Drever 5pts win at 7/2+



Aintree 2:35
Exotic Dancer 2/1
Turpin Green 5/2
State of Play 3/1
Our Vic 8/1
My Will 16/1

The Gold Cup seemed to be run to form, these prices largely reflect that. In many ways Exotic Dancer should be much shorter. However, and despite the King George, I do think there's a large Cheltenham factor involved with the horse. Plus anyone who saw him lose to Turpin Green in the three runner race has to doubt him in a small field. State of Play likes it here but so does Turpin Green who could also get a chance to dominate this small field. Again, I'll play the prices.

Turpin Green 5pts win at 7/2


Aintree 3:10
Katchit 6/4
Punjabi 11/2
Degas Art 10/1
Grand Bleu 10/1
Tritonix 10/1
Sendani 20/1

Katchit's been good to me all year and I wouldn't want to jump ship now. On the other hand he's no price this morning. Punjabi should love it round here and can make a race of it, plus the Doumen horse and Degas Art can be competitive and the vibes are strong for Tritonix. All in all a tricky race and one I'll keep out of for now.


Aintree 4:20
Hasty Prince 7/1
Jacks Craic 7/1
Marshall hall 9/1
Andreas 10/1
Crossbow Creek 12/1
Demi Beau 12/1
Greenhope 12/1
Kit Carson 12/1

I backed Greenhope at Cheltenham when Henderson then said he wasn't ready. He ran pretty well though. I've always had a system that when you've backed one at a decent price at Cheltenham you must back them at Aintree, and it's been spectacularly kind to me over the years. The other horse to take the eye is Jacks Craic. Admittedly he's done nothing this year, but he has edged down to a decent mark and could repeat last year's victory.

Greenhope 3pts win at 30/1
Jacks Craic 3pts win at 10/1


Aintree 4:55
Liberate 2/1
Tidal bay 3/1
Wins Now 6/1
Larkwing 9/1
My Petra 16/1
Carlitos 20/1
Bedlam Boy 20/1

The front two are solid enough but unexciting. I backed Larkwing ante post for Cheltenham and can see myself playing later on.


Aintree 5:30
Burntoakboy 7/1
Kicks For Free 7/1
Laouen 7/1
Flying Falcon 11/1
Acambo 20/1
Shatbdi 20/1
Marhaba Million 20/1
Special Envoy 25/1
Into the Shadowns 25/1
Ice Tea 25/1

Tricky race. Burntoakboy won for me at cheltenham so will definitely be in the portfolio. Kicks for Free should really like this course and distance, and Flying Falcon ran an encouraging comeback race. No bet right now though.

Grand National

Grand National Tissue - 11 April
Eurotrek 12/1
Idle Talk 16/1
Point Barrow 16/1
L'Ami 20/1
Numbersixvalverde 20/1
Bewleye Berry 20/1
McKelvey 20/1
Joes Edge 20/1
Hedgehunter 25/1
Monkerhostin 25/1
Billyvoddan 33/1
Simon 33/1
Ballycassidy 33/1
Dun Doire 33/1
Bothar Na 33/1
Homer Wells 33/1
Clan Royal 50/1
Slim Pickings 50/1
Zabenz 50/1
Silver Birch 50/1
Jack High 50/1

The tissue is based on quickish ground.

I had no trouble giving the winner last year - spraying points around on Irish raiders wasn't exactly contrarian. But paid out all the same.

Usually the secret to the National is to back four or more, win only. Only three times in the last years have I had a strong feeling for one horse in the National and bet accordingly.

1. Young Hustler - Carl Llewellyn steps off him at the third fence, something I've yet to forgive him for.

2. What's Up Boys - my favourite horse, set to make my 40th birthday, but came too soon under a typically asinine ride from Dickie Johnson and then gave up the running rail to Bindaree for an agonising second.

3. Clan Royal - when Liam Cooper headed the wrong way after the last and was swallowed up accordingly.

As you can see my record on these good things is terrible. So be careful when I say I have a similar feeling this year, even if I have only given him c7% of the book.

Step forward Eurotrek.

Touch of class, jumps, stays, and ran a great trial in the Bechers. Most bookies are non runner no bet and 16/1 looks worth taking. Unless Ruby switches to him I can't see him being overly popular though and 20/1 could well be freely available (that's the price on betfair this morning). I've been topping up all winter but for here let's keep it modest.

Eurotrek 6pts win at 20/1

I'll look at the race again Saturday morning.

Racing - Irish National

I had a cracking weekend in Dublin for my fortieth birthday that included a very hungover trip to Fairyhouse for the Irish National. That's as close as I've come to the winner though!

Fairyhouse 3:55
Kings Advocate 10/1
Dix Villex 12/1
Patsy Hall 16/1
All in the Stars 16/1
Juveigneur 20/1
Distant Thunder 20/1
Whyso Mayo 20/1
Cloudy Lane 20/1
Well Tutored 20/1
Nine de Sivola 20/1
Cane Brake 33/1
Butlers Cabin 33/1
Gazzas Girl 33/1
Mac Three 33/1

As you can see my prices are all over the place compared to the bookies. That's often the case in wide open handicaps where a difference of one or two per cent, plus the overround can make the differences look big. It's illusory though. The difference between 16/1 and 66/1 is roughly the same as that between Evens and 5/4. The only difference is that the 5/4 shot is much more likely to win than the 66/1 one. This is a concept some 'value' students struggle with.

Anyway, I'll play my front four - I've obviously found something to make me price them so, albeit simply being Ruby riding, or that they are one-time occupants of my virtual stable.

Kings Advocate 2pts win at 11/1
Dix Villex 2pts win at 20/1
Patsy Hall 2pts win at 33/1
All in the Stars 2pts ew at 40/1

Football - Bank Holiday Monday

Top and bottom apart, the rest of these are more "silly season" games.

Bolton 5pts beat Everton at 5/4

Norwich 5pts beat West Brom at 7/4

C Palace (away) 5pts beat Stoke at 10/3

Huddersfield 5pts beat Blackpool at 7/4

Grimsby 5pts beat Wycombe at 6/4

Wrexham 5pts beat Notts Co at 6/4

Racing - Saturday 7th April

I was 45 yesterday. Forgot about it until past lunch-time!



On the day he reached forty-five
My father said to his third wife
"What a great day to be alive.
Today is the first day of the second half of my life".

A touching good story, but wait.
He was dead by forty-eight.
And now I hear the hooves of forty-five,
It is a good, good day to be alive.



Not particularly a good day for betting though...


Kempton 3:20
Tabadul 6/1
Futun 13/2
Celtic Spirit 13/2
Royal jet 12/1
Weightless 16/1
Quince 16/1
Active Asset 16/1
Charlie Tokyo 16/1
All the Good 25/1

Not ever been a good race for me. However, this morning Pricewise and I seem to be in rare agreement, these days at least. Futun looks potentially a class above these and Celtic Spirit's race over course and distance behind Acrobatic could hardly read any better. With plenty of pace looking likely Futun should be able to settle and the winner should come late and wide.
Given pricewise's terrible run this jumps season the prices are holding up this morning.

Futun 4pts win at 10/1
Celtic Spirit 4pts win at 10/1
(chuck in a small forecast)


Kempton 3:50
Charlie Cool 4/1
Sri Diamond 5/1
Imperial Star 5/1
Cimyla 10/1
Dansili dancer 10/1
Grand Passion 10/1
Nakheel 10/1

Charlie Cool and Sri Diamond would probably be the other way round in betting but for Jamie Spencer seemingly switching rides. The suspicion is that Sri Diamond, withdrawn from Winter Derby last week, isn't tip-top. The market could be all over the place later. Imperial Star looks the one who could be better than this class. I'll play. Enthusiasm is tempered by him from the Gosden stable (improve for run) and by him being longest with Corals.

Imperial Star 5pts win at 7/1+


The Haydock races look very tricky with Spring ground and overraced horses. I'll be treading very carefully.

Football - Saturday 7th April

It looks like the start of the silly season, judging by the number of bets I've come up with.

For newbies, this refers to the notion that a team with something to play for (relegation/promotion) will over perform and a mid-table team with nothing to play for will underperform. Statistics show this to be a myth. However, the bookies still adjust their odds towards the end of the season to take this into account. This is partly because they fall for the myth themselves, but mainly because they are aware the punters will.

See if you can spot the ones below that fall into this situation.

(Friday) Chester 5pts beat Darlington at 7/4

Arsenal 5pts beat West Ham at 1/2 (!)

Blackburn 5pts beat Aston Villa at 11/10

Coventry 5pts beat QPR at Evens

C. Palace 5pts beat Preston at 7/4

Ipswich 5pts beat Barnsley at Evens

Crewe (away) 5pts beat Chesterfield at 9/4

Millwall 5pts beat Nottm Forest at 2/1

Huddersfield (away) 5pts beat Oldham at 9/2

Rochdale (away) 5pts beat Bury at 17/10

US Masters Golf

I'd love to unearth a big priced beauty for you but frankly at the prices I'm going the other way.

Tiger Woods is now 7/4 and I thought 6/4 was fair to be honest.
5pts win at 7/4

Mickelson is touching 2/1 for a place on the exchanges - call it 15/8.
5pts place at 15/8

Premiership Relegation

I've just been through the remaining fixtures applying my ratings. For all the speculation to the contrary the figures make it seem impossible for West Ham and not much better for Charlton. I have the latter finishing 4pts away from safety, and that's only if Fulham have a nightmare run-in.

They definitely look a decent price this morning. Save on Fulham at 16s if need be.

Charlton 10pts relegated at 5/6