Monday, August 02, 2010

The Curse of Pricewise

The last three horses I've had decent single bets on (and marked up on here), have all also been Pricewise selections. (I arrived at my conclusions separately!)

What a poisoned chalice this is.

Music Show early price 10/1. I got 8/1. SP 6/1 (I think)
Illustrious Blue early price 11/1. I got 9/1. SP 8/1(or shorter)
Evens and Odds early price 33/1. I got 25/1. SP 20/1

That's at least 12 points his recommendation has cost me (I'd have thought without his recommendation I could have got better than early odds on betfair), and 20 points it's cost a mug punter with a lucky pin.

There's a twist though. I don't have the data to back this assertion up, but I have noticed it for the last couple of years. If Pricewise selections continue to be backed through the day to go off at the sort of prices shown above, they may well run well and win, or indeed sometimes badly. If however the horse drifts back out before the off to the original Pricewise price, or even bigger, the horse WILL NOT win.

Just felt like sharing that...

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