Golf - FBR and Dubai

The golf ratings have been working spectacularly over the last couple of weeks. I guess I'm due a good drubbing!

FBR
Olazabal 1pt ew at 40/1 (I can hardly not, now can I?)
Atwal 1pt ew at 100/1


Dubai
D Clarke 1pt win at 33/1
D Howell 1pt win at 33/1


Also

2pts ew double
Mickelson (FBR) 7/1
Els (Dubai) 13/2




Running totals for blog:
Points out: 234
Points in: 351.65
% Returns: 150%
Points in play, including above: 71

Mid-week football - 31st Jan and 1st Feb

Four more matches. No theme, just using the ratings and picking off out of line prices:


Fulham 5pts beat Spurs at 15/8

Plymouth 5pts beat Southampton at 11/8

Swindon 5pts beat Walsall at 13/10

Blackburn 5pts beat Man Utd at 7/2

Six nations rugby

Let's have an interest in the rugby - I've used my quarter final pricing system as a means of approaching this and simply taken the best out of line prices:


France 5pts win Grand Slam at 7/4

England 6pts win Triple Crown at 4/6

Wales 1pt outright at 10/1 (just because they won for me last year!)



Running totals for blog:
Total points out: 234
Total points returned: 351.65
% returns: 150% (!!)
Points in play (including above): 41

Golf - In-running

I've added a few bets in-running in both golf tournaments. The each way bets were placed a quarter 1234, the prices are still available but the place odds are probably worse now (for Qatar anyway).


Qatar
Fasth 2pts win at 4/1
Fickhardt half point ew at 50/1


Buick
Jobe 1pt win at 5/1
Atwal half point ew at 50/1



Running total for blog (after a decent day's football and Celebrity BB!):
Total points out: 229pts
Total returns: 328.22
% returns: 143% (unsustainable)
Points in-play including above: 38

Weekend Football - 28th and 29th January

As usual, we're down in the lower leagues where the ratings have pointed us towards a few games sharing a common theme. The ratings suggest that the leagues are much more competitve than I believe the odds reflect. So we are taking on some of the leading teams from the two divisions:


Bristol City to beat Swansea 5pts at 13/8 (still trying to get said price on exchanges)

Bury to beat Northampton 5pts at 2/1

Peterborough to beat Grimsby 5pts at 10/3

Macclesfield to beat Carlisle 5pts at 2/1


The Cup does throw up three fixtures of the type I like - high-flying lower league sides at home to failing higher division sides but I probably won't play. The sides are Brentford, Reading and Colchester.



Running total for blog:
Total points bet: 197
Total points returned: 230.6
% returns: 117%
Points running on incl above: 65

Mid-week football

One bet tonight. A team who look to be improving against one in free-fall. I'm odds-on the home team, so am keen to bet at 5/4 - a drifiting market suggest some injury problems though.

Plymouth 5pts at 5/4 to beat Leicester.

Golf - Buick and Qatar

Let's see if we can find another winner this week. I save the majority of bets for in-running, usually at the close of each round.

Buick.
Mickelson 2pts win at 10/1
Olazabal 1pt ew at 80/1
Bertsch half point each way at 200/1

Qatar
Gonzalez 1pt ew at 66/1

It seems to me the favourites on both tours are decently priced this week, especially at Victor Chandler. I'll take them on with some cross win doubles.

1pt Woods and Els at 23/1
1pt Woods and Singh at 27/1
1pt Mickelson and Els at 59/1
1pt Mickelson and Singh at 69/1

Heineken Cup

A decent week for the blog - with Everton winning at 5/1 and Chris Di Marco at 28/1.


Heineken Cup rugby.
I like getting involved at quarter final stages of most competitions. If I already have a portfolio on the go for the event it's an ideal time to manage the book. If coming to it fresh the prices are very competitive, and some bookies are also managing their liabilities. So it's prices that decide my bets, not much else in such situations.

Toulouse 9pts win at 7/4
Munster 3pts win at 7/1



Running totals for blog:
Points out: 192
Points returned: 219.35
% returns: 114%
Points in play including above: 35

Football - 21st January

Three matches for us this weekend. Pretty dismal showing mid-week.


Everton 5pts beat Arsenal at 5/1. OK I know this looks silly.

Southampton 5pts beat Ispwich at Evens

Tranmere 5pts beat Southend at 7/4




Running totals for blog:
Total points out: 167
Total returns: 152.35
% returns: 91%
Points running on: 48

Football and golf midweek - 17th January

The golf bets were rubbish last week, but the football bets provided a profit. Let's play again this week, though the golf tournaments are certainly ones to tread warily.

Football Tuesday 17th January
Shrewsbury 5pts bt Mansfield at 11/10.
I priced this up at a shade of odds-on, and will take the stand-out price with Paddy Power

Football Wedesday 18th January
Boston 5pts bt Carlisle at 13/8
Again, a stand-out price here worth taking - William Hill this time.


Golf - Bob Hope classic
Herron 1pt each way at 33/1
Tim Clark 1pt win at 22/1
Crane 1pt win at 40/1
Mickelson 1pt win at 6/1
Atwal half point each way at 150/1

Gold - Abu Dhabi
Daly 1pt ew at 40/1
Di Marco 1pt ew at 28/1
Bjorn 1pt place at 6/1


Re long-term bets - Chantelle is now odds-on favourite for big brother, Preston continue to do well, and Hayley Turner is getting the rides and the winners.



Summary of results for blog:
Total points out: 157
Returns: 152.35
% returns 97%
Points in-running (incl above): 43

Football - 14th January

A theme to the bets this week. We're taking on away sides that for one reason or another are over-hyped.

5pts Fulham beat Newcastle at 11/8

5pts Plymouth beat Norwich at 13/8

5pts QPR beat Southampton at 6/4

5pts Bradford beat Swansea at 7/4




Running totals for blog:
Total points out: 127
Total pts returned: 128.05
% returns: 100%
Points in-running (incl above) 51 pts

Football 10th January

One match to interest us tonight.

Scunthorpe to beat Huddersfield 5pts at 7/4

On the face of it that looks no more than fair odds. However, people may be inclined to get carried away with Huddersfield's performance on Saturday. I'd expect the opposite to happen and them to be running on empty tonight. Their recent league form has been nothing special whilst Sunthorpe are showing signs of a revival.

I was happy enough with 8/5 and the 7/4 on betfair suggests some Chelsea fans are getting involved. Happy to oblige.

Golf - Sony Open

Appleby looks very short to me and I'll be place laying him. However, laying won't form part of this blog.

The prices have led me to:
Atwal 1pt place at 25/1
Van Pelt 1pt place at 18/1
Kenny Perry 1pt each way at 33/1
Billy Mayfair 1pt each way at 100/1

Atwal 1pt best rest of world player each way at 40/1.

8pts staked - I may add some match bets later.


Update on Celebrity Big Brother:
This may be time to sell the Chantelle bet - either for a free bet (which I have done) or take a profit. Anyone wanting a new bet could do a lot worse than Pete Burns who actually looks to have the personality for 2nd or 3rd if not a win.


Running totals for blog:
Total points out: 122
Total returns: 128.05
Returns %: 105%
Running on: (inc above): 31pts

Celebrity Big Brother

There was a time when the bookies were clueless on reality TV. I once spent almost an entire night tabbing through all the bookmakers and taking advantage of all their massive differences of opinion.

Now they just wait for the betfair market to settle down and reflect that. The betfair market itself is amazingly more mature also. Last night the odds almost totally reflected my own tissue within about ten minutes of the programme ending.

I'll put up the bets I had:

Chantelle 3pts win at 20/1 (of course she has to stay in past Sunday, but if she does that's an easy trade. I won't trade/hedge on this blog, but that will be my strategy in reality).

Any Other 3pts at 20/1 (exactly the same as above)

Maggot 6pts win 5/1. BB seem to have gone out of their way to find replicas of previous winners. They may have one in Maggot, whoever he is.

FA Cup Third Round

A funny set of fixtures with very few teams facing tricky ties.

No point using my ratings so a quiet weekend. I normally look for a high-flying team in one division at home to a team struggling in the division above. Again, nothing doing.

The only bet I could get remotely interested in was Reading away to West Brom. I'd have them at least similar in ability, and you'd expect reading to be closer to 9/4 than the 11/4 I managed to get. 5/2 looks the best now.

5pts win Reading at 11/4

Mercedes Golf championship

Low-key pipe-opener with most of the big guns missing.

We'll tip-toe quietly into this one:

Ben Crane 2pts each way at 25/1
Michael Campbell 1pt win at 18/1




Running Totals for blog:
Total points out: 112
Total points returned: 128.05
Total returns: 114%
In-running (unaccounted): 16 pts

Football Matches Jan 2nd

Decent profit from the last set of matches.

Four prices look wrong today - and they are even bigger on betfair. To be honest I usually feel more confident picking off the out-of-line bookmakers than taking on betfairians. However it's easy to see why people are keen to oppose the teams I've chosen.

Bolton to beat Liverpool 5pts at 3/1

Newcastle beat Middlesborough 5pts at 11/8

Coventry beat Wolves 5pts at 9/4

Crewe (away) beat Sheff Weds 5 pts at 3/1




Running totals for blog:
Total points bet: 92 pts
Total returns: 111.8 pts
% Returns: 122%
Points in-running (including above) 31pts