Weekend Football - 29th May

Some more silly prices, based on team's having to win.


Charlton 5pts beat Blackburn 15/8

Wigan 5pts beat Portsmouth 13/8

Norwich 5pts beat Wolves 5/4

Macclesfield 5pts beat Grimsby 9/4

Rochdale 5pts beat Bristol Rovers 7/4

Zurich and Andalucian Golf

This is getting me down to be honest. Still, I'll keep digging.


Zurich

Ames 1pt ew at 25/1

Pernice 1pt ew at 40/1 w/out Mickelson and Goosen

Leaney 1/3rd pt win at 110/1
Henry 1/3rd pt win at 140/1
Howell 111, 1/3rd pt win at 100/1



Andalucia

Gonzalez 1pt ew at 20/1

Fichardt 1/2pt ew at 66/1
Whitehouse 1/2pt ew at 80/1

Eliasson 1/3rd pt win at 40/1
Fisher 1/3rd pt win at 55/1
Derksen 1/3rd pt win at 125/1

Weekend Football 22nd April

Looks like we're taking on some "big" away teams this week. The ratings suggest the bookies have already decided these have won, given the paucity of their opposition. There's also an element of "silly season" thinking going on - in that the home teams often don't have much to play for. I'll steal the prices and hope for some upsets.



Everton 5pts beat Birmingham at 13/10 ("silly-season" price)

Millwall 5pts beat Burnley 6/4

Hartlepool 5pts beat Nottingham Forest at 12/5

Tranmere 5pts beat Bristol City at 7/4 (that's for you Karin!)

Walsall 5pts beat Huddersfield at 2/1

Mansfield 5pts beat Carlisle at 12/5

Golf - Asian and Houston

A slightly new approach this week, given out struggle to get this fund going. We'll major on one or two players near the front of the market, looking at each way value as well as win value, and support with hit and hope smaller bets.

And then plough in in-running if and when opportunities arise.


Houston
Darren Clarke 1pt ew at 25/1

Jacobsen 1/3rd point win at 66/1
Leaney 1/3rd point win at 170/1
M Wilson 1/3rd point win at 110/1



Asian Open
Nick Dougherty 1pt ew at 22/1
David Lynn 1pt ew at 33/1

Dyson 1/3rd point win at 33/1
Sterne 1/3rd point win at 70/1
TC Wang 1/3rd point win at 80/1

Bank Holiday Monday - football

I've only just managed to price these up, and so have missed quite a few prices. This seems the start of the silly season. You'll see that virtually all of my games involve teams who supposedly need to win. Some of the prices are gobsmacking. I had Charlton at around Evens, and Middlesborough not much longer.


Charlton 5pts beat Portsmouth 13/8

Middlesborough 5pts beat West Ham at 13/8

Bolton (away) 5pts beat West Brom at 21/10

Cardiff (away) 5pts beat Crewe at 12/5

Derby 5pts beat Hull at 6/5

Southampton 5pts beat Millwall at 10/11


I just missed the prices on Barnsley and Bristol City so will just watch those.

Weekend Football - April 15th

Here we go again, same as last week would be nice. I seem to be featuring teams in the third tier again. I think the reason for this is the teams in that division are much closer to each other on ability than the markets seem to think.

Bradford 5pts beat Doncaster at 13/10

Blackpool 5pts beat Swansea at 7/4

Bournemouth 5pts beat Huddersfield at 13/8

Rotherham 5pts beat Brentford at 15/8

Tranmere 5pts beat Forest at 15/8

Mansfield 5pts beat Orient at 15/8

Golf - Heritage and China

Heritage:

Ernie Els 2pts win at 10/1
Charley Hoffman 1pt ew at 150/1
Rod Pampling 1pt ew at 33/1




China Open

Paul Casey 2pts win at 11/1
Andrew Buckle 1pt ew at 33/1


1pt ew double
Jim Furyk 14/1
Nick Dougherty 14/1

Weekend Football 8th April

Quite a few this weekend.

Charlton 5pts beat Everton at 6/4

Gillingham 5pts beat Huddersfield at 7/4

Port Vale 5pts beat Swansea at 15/8

Rotherham 5pts beat Tranmere at 6/4

Macclesfield 5pts beat Wycombe at 8/5

Torquay 5pts beat Darlington at 11/8

Sunday
Middlesborough 5 pts beat Newcastle at 6/4

Golf Ratings

JayDee asked a question below about how to go about finding 'value' when betting on golf. I'll have a stab at describing how I am currently going about meeting that challenge. To be clear, this is very much a new work in progress. I have had enough success historically with golf to have set up a dedicated fund. However, this is the first year, and it's currently losing, but the approach may be of interest.

My starting-point is to have compiled "handicap ratings" for every player on both tours based on their results last season. They received a rating for each outing, with a rolling average covering their most recent 20 outings. I then keep this updated after each tournament.

The basic rating is achieved as follows. I come up with an average score for all golfers who make the cut based on the mid-point of all those who made the cut. These golfers scored "level par" for the tournament. If the winner shot ten shots lower, then they get a handicap score of -10, and so on. Those who made the cut but shot higher than the mid-point get a similarly calculated +score. Those who missed the cut get a blanket score of +10.

The ratings are specific to each tour, so those who play on both tours have two separate ratings. This in itself is interesting. Currently, for example, Ernie Els has a US handicap score of -5, and a European score of -10. This is actually quite consistent with other golfers, allowing me to speculate that the US tour is on average roughly 1 shot per round more competitive than the European tour.

The final ratings aren't in essence that much different from the weighted "scoring average" that each tour provides. However, there are advantages in keeping your own ratings, not least the very act of doing them provides you with unique insights that just looking at stats cold never will. Also, the ratings are kept on a spreadsheet that allows me to look graphically at how each player's form is ebbing and flowing, plus at their winning and placing strike rates and clusters.

These ratings form the basis of my pre tournament form study. They are core 'ability ratings'. I then add positives and negatives for very recent form (last 3 tournaments), and for course form, or likelihood of the course suiting.

For pricing up markets, this information allows me to cluster players into groups, to which I allocate probable winning percentages, and then compare to the early bookies odds (as soon as possible after the bookies put their prices up - usually Monday), and hope to pick off any prices I see as out of line.

The ratings in theory should work very well for "head to heads", though in reality it's unusual for the bookmakers to put together two golfers much out of line with each other. They are also very very useful for pricing up the tournaments in progress, particularly at the end of each day's play.

I'm playing with a number of tweaks to the system, as it is a work in progress, but I am happy that this provides me with some sort of edge worth pursuing.


I hope that was of some interest.

US Masters Golf

Don't forget to check out www.escorialracing.co.uk for my free thoughts and prices for Aintree from Thursday onwards. Garvivonian was all the rage in the betting for the Grand National today, and those who took the prices advised earlier on all three Irish horses are already in a great position.


This week's Masters does have me a little worried about the course. People have been saying only ten people can win ( I think Tiger's quoted as saying 6), due to the lengthening of the course. The thing is, I'm sure I read pretty much the same stuff last year, and short-hitters still managed to do well.


Oh well, here's four bets that should provide some sustained interest anyway.



David Howell outright 1pt ew at 80/1

Di Marco outright 1pt ew at 50/1

KJ Choi - betting without the Big 5 - 1pt ew at 50/1 (quarter 12345)

Rod Pampling - top Australasian - 1pt ew at 12/1 (fifth 123)


I will update via comments in-play if it all goes unsurprisingly tits-up.