A fairly interesting spread of bets this week. I'm keen on Bolton, as usual.
Bolton 5pts to beat Liverpool at 3/1
Wolves (away) 5 pts to beat Cardiff at 100/30
Bradford 5pts to beat Tranmere at 11/8
Crewe 5pts to beat Carlisle at 5/4
also Charlton 1pt to beat Arsenal at 13/2 and 4pts on Asian handicaps at +1 at around 1.9 or better.
"Near bets" this week - (these are losing badly) - all away:
Sheff Weds to beat Sunderland
Wycombe to beat Accrington
Macclesfield to beat Hereford
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe
Here's the tissue for the big race. It's a real shame the big ones have scared off all the medium-sized fishes.
Shirocco 5/2
Deep Impact 7/2
Hurricane Run 5/1
Rail Link 7/1
Price 9/1
Sixties Icon 9/1
It looks likely there isn't even going to be the dead 8. How disappointing. Fabre on the front page of the Racing Post is bewailing the lack of pace in the race but I'd have thought that would actually be against Deep Impact more than his three. Shirocco looks the least complicated and I've been a fan all season. I'm happy to get the last of the 3s. I have Rail Link on-side at 20s although I did ditch half of it after this trial. Sixties Icon looks a touch big at 20s (assuming he runs!) so we'll finish off the portfolio with him.
Shirocco 4pts win at 3/1
Sixties Icon 2pts win at 20/1 (betfair)
Shirocco 5/2
Deep Impact 7/2
Hurricane Run 5/1
Rail Link 7/1
Price 9/1
Sixties Icon 9/1
It looks likely there isn't even going to be the dead 8. How disappointing. Fabre on the front page of the Racing Post is bewailing the lack of pace in the race but I'd have thought that would actually be against Deep Impact more than his three. Shirocco looks the least complicated and I've been a fan all season. I'm happy to get the last of the 3s. I have Rail Link on-side at 20s although I did ditch half of it after this trial. Sixties Icon looks a touch big at 20s (assuming he runs!) so we'll finish off the portfolio with him.
Shirocco 4pts win at 3/1
Sixties Icon 2pts win at 20/1 (betfair)
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
WGC Golf
(No football bets midweek, though we will keep an eye on "near bets" Bury and Millwall)
Golf.
Tiger Woods 3pts win at 5/1
Trevor Immelman 1pt ew at 40/1
Golf.
Tiger Woods 3pts win at 5/1
Trevor Immelman 1pt ew at 40/1
Monday, September 25, 2006
Weekly review
Horses:
On Saturday three horses from "my stable" were running. This is simply a list of horses I really like, usually because they've won for me, and I indulge in betting them throughout the season regardless of price etc. There's never more than 5 horses in the stable at any one time, and it is a useful way of keeping a lid on any sentimentality I have within racing whilst at the same time not losing sight of my love for the sport. Also, some of my best wins have come from this somewhat silly approach. Atavus some years ago, and Sergeant Cecil last year for example.
On Saturday I combined Zowington (33s), Court Masterpiece (6s) and Fullandby (12s) in each way doubles and trebles for another success for the approach. I recommend it wholeheartedly as an adjunct to the normal more rigid numbers-based approaches.
George Washington:
Yes, I did price GW as 5/1 on my tissue. As a result I went in heavy on Proclamation backed up by Court Masterpiece and even Araafa near the off. Obviously my price was wrong, and I got my arse kicked, but on the whole I think I'd do the same again next time. One thing it is worth learning and I've said this to myself before. Often you see warnings to take whatever O'Brien says as hype for the stud, and I must admit I tend to take against it myself. However, in reality he does seem to be on the level when he really commits to a horse.
Twiston-Davies
Last year I went on holiday in Scotland and managed a nice fun day out at Perth races. I wasn't betting, more eating ice cream and mug-punting fivers. However, I noticed that Twiston-Davies had sent some pretty decent animals up to race against summer scottish rubbish, and that this seemed to be an on-going affair. I never look at summer jumps full stop but last week the fact that Perth was on again caught my eye. I threw a point at Twiston-Davies's four runners in a get luck accumulator, and blow me down if they didn't all win!
I actually have quite a few of these "trainer system" bets in my head. I need to find a place to record them so that they are at hand and I don't overlook them in future. Not only are the definitely profitable, but they offer occasional big returns for little outlay.
Golf:
I made a mistake this week. I mistook the US tour for US players. I should have remembered only a few months ago saying to a friend how remarkable it was that Australians were dominating the tour. The plain fact is US golf is in a terrible state, and that, coupled with Mickelson and Woods' seening indifference to the Ryder cup, should have made it plain what was going to happen.
Also, a Ladbrokes compiler made a comment pre-tournament that hit home. He said that some people just like to take against the favourite hoping that they'll get value that way, but in this situation 8/13 Europe was definitely huge value. There's no doubt being contrarian by nature is one of the cornerstones of my success, but it can be an overdone strength. This is even more true in sports betting as opposed to horse betting, though even there, as we know, betfair has forced the value to the front end.
Football
Backing Reading to beat Man Utd nearly worked out. However I need to take a reality check on these type of bets as well. I remember when Fulham came up and played the big boys, and there just wasn't the actual self-belief that we could win - compete, yes : win, no. There's probably more scope to play similar matches on Asian handicaps and not be so greedy. This is an undercurrent through all of my sports betting. My horseplayer head tends to dominate and this is a mistake in a betting environment where the events are just much less competitive and random than (say) a competitive class 2 handicap, and where upsets similar to those in racing are just much rarer.
On Saturday three horses from "my stable" were running. This is simply a list of horses I really like, usually because they've won for me, and I indulge in betting them throughout the season regardless of price etc. There's never more than 5 horses in the stable at any one time, and it is a useful way of keeping a lid on any sentimentality I have within racing whilst at the same time not losing sight of my love for the sport. Also, some of my best wins have come from this somewhat silly approach. Atavus some years ago, and Sergeant Cecil last year for example.
On Saturday I combined Zowington (33s), Court Masterpiece (6s) and Fullandby (12s) in each way doubles and trebles for another success for the approach. I recommend it wholeheartedly as an adjunct to the normal more rigid numbers-based approaches.
George Washington:
Yes, I did price GW as 5/1 on my tissue. As a result I went in heavy on Proclamation backed up by Court Masterpiece and even Araafa near the off. Obviously my price was wrong, and I got my arse kicked, but on the whole I think I'd do the same again next time. One thing it is worth learning and I've said this to myself before. Often you see warnings to take whatever O'Brien says as hype for the stud, and I must admit I tend to take against it myself. However, in reality he does seem to be on the level when he really commits to a horse.
Twiston-Davies
Last year I went on holiday in Scotland and managed a nice fun day out at Perth races. I wasn't betting, more eating ice cream and mug-punting fivers. However, I noticed that Twiston-Davies had sent some pretty decent animals up to race against summer scottish rubbish, and that this seemed to be an on-going affair. I never look at summer jumps full stop but last week the fact that Perth was on again caught my eye. I threw a point at Twiston-Davies's four runners in a get luck accumulator, and blow me down if they didn't all win!
I actually have quite a few of these "trainer system" bets in my head. I need to find a place to record them so that they are at hand and I don't overlook them in future. Not only are the definitely profitable, but they offer occasional big returns for little outlay.
Golf:
I made a mistake this week. I mistook the US tour for US players. I should have remembered only a few months ago saying to a friend how remarkable it was that Australians were dominating the tour. The plain fact is US golf is in a terrible state, and that, coupled with Mickelson and Woods' seening indifference to the Ryder cup, should have made it plain what was going to happen.
Also, a Ladbrokes compiler made a comment pre-tournament that hit home. He said that some people just like to take against the favourite hoping that they'll get value that way, but in this situation 8/13 Europe was definitely huge value. There's no doubt being contrarian by nature is one of the cornerstones of my success, but it can be an overdone strength. This is even more true in sports betting as opposed to horse betting, though even there, as we know, betfair has forced the value to the front end.
Football
Backing Reading to beat Man Utd nearly worked out. However I need to take a reality check on these type of bets as well. I remember when Fulham came up and played the big boys, and there just wasn't the actual self-belief that we could win - compete, yes : win, no. There's probably more scope to play similar matches on Asian handicaps and not be so greedy. This is an undercurrent through all of my sports betting. My horseplayer head tends to dominate and this is a mistake in a betting environment where the events are just much less competitive and random than (say) a competitive class 2 handicap, and where upsets similar to those in racing are just much rarer.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Weekend football 23rd Sept
Down to a more manageable 5 matches this weekend. For information the three matches that nearly made it onto the list but failed the last criteria are as follows:
Luton beat West Brom
Brentford (away) beat Chesterfield
Mansfield beat Accrington
We'll keep an eye on these ("near bets") all season to see how they fare.
The real bets though are as follows:
Reading 5pts beat Man Utd at 6/1
Leicester 5pts beat Colchester at Evens
QPR 5pts beat Hull at 11/8
Port Vale 5pts beat Bristol City at 13/8
(Sunday) Wrexham 5pts beat Hereford at 5/4
Luton beat West Brom
Brentford (away) beat Chesterfield
Mansfield beat Accrington
We'll keep an eye on these ("near bets") all season to see how they fare.
The real bets though are as follows:
Reading 5pts beat Man Utd at 6/1
Leicester 5pts beat Colchester at Evens
QPR 5pts beat Hull at 11/8
Port Vale 5pts beat Bristol City at 13/8
(Sunday) Wrexham 5pts beat Hereford at 5/4
Ryder Cup
My heart obviously says Europe, but my gut isn't so sure. I've backed us every time over the last decade plus, when we've been seriously wrongly priced. This time I can't help feeling the USA are the ones being overlooked. For a start rookies have a terrific Ryder Cup record over the last few tournaments and much of what people are writing about the USA team now, they used to write about us.
Tough call. However there is one bet that looks too big. I'm on, but at limited stakes unfortunately.
Casey - top European points scorer - 2pts ew at 12/1
Tough call. However there is one bet that looks too big. I'm on, but at limited stakes unfortunately.
Casey - top European points scorer - 2pts ew at 12/1
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Weekend Football 16/17 Sept
Last night's results no good for us, and we need to keep on the right side of Keano from now on. Mind you, I said that about Portsmouth a few weeks ago and here I am betting against them!
Charlton 5pts beat Portsmouth 6/4
Stoke 5pts beat Burnley 6/5
Gillingham 5pts beat Swansea 6/4
Scunthorpe 5pts beat Cheltenham 5/4
Barnet 5pts beat Notts Co 7/5
Hartlepool 5pts beat Shrewsbury 6/5
Torquay 5pts beat Mansfield 6/5
Blackburn 5pts beat Man City 11/10
Man Utd 5pts beat Arsenal Evens
Charlton 5pts beat Portsmouth 6/4
Stoke 5pts beat Burnley 6/5
Gillingham 5pts beat Swansea 6/4
Scunthorpe 5pts beat Cheltenham 5/4
Barnet 5pts beat Notts Co 7/5
Hartlepool 5pts beat Shrewsbury 6/5
Torquay 5pts beat Mansfield 6/5
Blackburn 5pts beat Man City 11/10
Man Utd 5pts beat Arsenal Evens
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Mid-week Football 13/9
Two more matches to get involved in tonight.
Leeds 5pts beat Sunderland at 7/5
Torquay 5pts beat Bristol Rovers at 11/10
I've also done the ratings for the weekend and am just waiting on a few prices. Looks like another 9 matches, which continues to worry me, despite last night's romp. The compilers seem to have suddenly deviated from my ratings and I'm not sure why - all I can think is that they are paying slightly more attention to recent games (6 match form perhaps) than I am. If so, the next few weeks should be an interesting experiment - though hopefully not an expensive one!
Leeds 5pts beat Sunderland at 7/5
Torquay 5pts beat Bristol Rovers at 11/10
I've also done the ratings for the weekend and am just waiting on a few prices. Looks like another 9 matches, which continues to worry me, despite last night's romp. The compilers seem to have suddenly deviated from my ratings and I'm not sure why - all I can think is that they are paying slightly more attention to recent games (6 match form perhaps) than I am. If so, the next few weeks should be an interesting experiment - though hopefully not an expensive one!
Weekly Review
I'm going to start adding a weekly review of betting purely for my own benefit. I'm thinking the act of typing out my written notes will cement them in my mind, plus they'll hopefully provide a useful aide-memoir for a year's time, when looking at the same events again. Apologies to all for the self-indulgence (like a blog isn't!) - scroll down.
St Leger:
Sixties Icon was a solid favourite, as you'll see from my tissue below, against very average opponents. People wanted to be against him on forums all week - "he's the likeliest winner but a rotten price". They were looking for reasons to oppose. Noseda's form provided one. His horses had gone a fortnight without winning, including many favourites. This was enough to push the horse from odds on to 6/4. And that despite Noseda remaining bullish, and his 2 runners on the Friday both running to form. This sort of over-reaction against the big race favourite is a feature of the betfair world and something we can exploit.
Irish Champion:
I priced this up as being a tactical affair, and if brutally honest with self was looking for revenge for Alexander Goldrun over Ouija Board after my maximum bet at Goodwood. However, Coolmore used Ace as a pacesetter, and in doing so ensured Alexander had very little chance. I should have recognised this as an obvious threat.
Racing Saturday:
There was both the above, the rest of the York/Doncaster card, plus decent races at Chester and Goodwood. I looked at 11 races in all, and found decent bets in 6. I crossed one out completely. However, the other 4 were possibles, but dodgy, including an impossible Portland Handicap. I ended up doing Last Minute Bets in all 4 - without success. I could easily have simply added them to the discard pile, and probably should have done. Be careful during similar full days.
Longchamp:
Arc Trails weekend provided the usual tactical nonsense. However, Shirocco won his race - remember that when all the guff starts being peddled about the challengers.
Mid-week Football:
I ended up rating 9 lower league matches as bets, a worryingly large amount. This was on the first night of Champions League action, and on a Tuesday. I wonder if it's possible that the odds compilers took their eye off the ball? Considering the success of the ratings it's certainly something to remember for next year, and not to be worried if it happens again.
St Leger:
Sixties Icon was a solid favourite, as you'll see from my tissue below, against very average opponents. People wanted to be against him on forums all week - "he's the likeliest winner but a rotten price". They were looking for reasons to oppose. Noseda's form provided one. His horses had gone a fortnight without winning, including many favourites. This was enough to push the horse from odds on to 6/4. And that despite Noseda remaining bullish, and his 2 runners on the Friday both running to form. This sort of over-reaction against the big race favourite is a feature of the betfair world and something we can exploit.
Irish Champion:
I priced this up as being a tactical affair, and if brutally honest with self was looking for revenge for Alexander Goldrun over Ouija Board after my maximum bet at Goodwood. However, Coolmore used Ace as a pacesetter, and in doing so ensured Alexander had very little chance. I should have recognised this as an obvious threat.
Racing Saturday:
There was both the above, the rest of the York/Doncaster card, plus decent races at Chester and Goodwood. I looked at 11 races in all, and found decent bets in 6. I crossed one out completely. However, the other 4 were possibles, but dodgy, including an impossible Portland Handicap. I ended up doing Last Minute Bets in all 4 - without success. I could easily have simply added them to the discard pile, and probably should have done. Be careful during similar full days.
Longchamp:
Arc Trails weekend provided the usual tactical nonsense. However, Shirocco won his race - remember that when all the guff starts being peddled about the challengers.
Mid-week Football:
I ended up rating 9 lower league matches as bets, a worryingly large amount. This was on the first night of Champions League action, and on a Tuesday. I wonder if it's possible that the odds compilers took their eye off the ball? Considering the success of the ratings it's certainly something to remember for next year, and not to be worried if it happens again.
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Mid-week Football - Sept 12th
It looks a remarkably busy night. Could just be a freak, or perhaps the odds compilers have been distracted by the Champions League, or perhaps this is where the ratings come unstuck!!
Plymouth 5pts to beat Cardiff at 13/8
Preston 5pts to beat West Brom at 13/8
Wolves 5pts to beat Derby at 10/11
Brentford 5pts to beat Swansea at 11/8
Crewe 5pts to beat Cheltenham at 10/11
Rotherham 5pts to beat Tranmere at 15/8
Scunthorpe 5pts to beat Port Vale at 8/5
Hartlepool 5pts to beat Mansfield at 5/4
Plymouth 5pts to beat Cardiff at 13/8
Preston 5pts to beat West Brom at 13/8
Wolves 5pts to beat Derby at 10/11
Brentford 5pts to beat Swansea at 11/8
Crewe 5pts to beat Cheltenham at 10/11
Rotherham 5pts to beat Tranmere at 15/8
Scunthorpe 5pts to beat Port Vale at 8/5
Hartlepool 5pts to beat Mansfield at 5/4
Champions League - outrights
Here's my tissue and recommendations. We'll start a small portfolio, and go in again at the second stage/quarter finals.
Chelsea 7/1
Barcelona 7/1
Man Utd 10/1
Real Madrid 10/1
Inter Milan 12/1
AC Milan 12/1
Lyon 12/1
Liverpool 16/1
Valencia 16/1
Munich 25/1
Arsenal 25/1
Roma 25/1
PSV 25/1
Recommendations:
Valencia 2pts win at 25/1
Lyon 2pts win at 20/1
Roma 1pt win at 45/1
PSV 1pt win at 130/1
Top goalscorer
Saha 1pt ew at 40/1
Group stages:
PSV 5pts win at 9/2
Lyon 5pts win at 2/1
CSKA 5pts win at 9/1
Chelsea 7/1
Barcelona 7/1
Man Utd 10/1
Real Madrid 10/1
Inter Milan 12/1
AC Milan 12/1
Lyon 12/1
Liverpool 16/1
Valencia 16/1
Munich 25/1
Arsenal 25/1
Roma 25/1
PSV 25/1
Recommendations:
Valencia 2pts win at 25/1
Lyon 2pts win at 20/1
Roma 1pt win at 45/1
PSV 1pt win at 130/1
Top goalscorer
Saha 1pt ew at 40/1
Group stages:
PSV 5pts win at 9/2
Lyon 5pts win at 2/1
CSKA 5pts win at 9/1
Monday, September 11, 2006
Madrid Open golf
I'm keeping well away from the matchplay event this week - those events are hopless for betting purposes.
So, I'll stick to the European tour:
Olazabal 2pts win at 12/1
Fasth 1pt ew at 40/1
Ilonen 1pt ew at 100/1
So, I'll stick to the European tour:
Olazabal 2pts win at 12/1
Fasth 1pt ew at 40/1
Ilonen 1pt ew at 100/1
Friday, September 08, 2006
NFL
I usually have a small dabble in this, and considering my only knowledge of American football was gained over the three months I worked in a sports bar in Seattle over 20 years ago, I have to say I've been extraordinarily lucky over the years!
One from each conference purely for interest, and I like Ladbrokes quarter odds 1234.
Arizona 1pt ew at 40/1
Baltimore 1pt ew at 40/1
One from each conference purely for interest, and I like Ladbrokes quarter odds 1234.
Arizona 1pt ew at 40/1
Baltimore 1pt ew at 40/1
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Weekend Football 9 Sep
Only three matches this weekend, but I have to say I really like them, though with Preston's inability to score we'll save in case it's goalless.
Everton 5pts beat Liverpool at 3/1
Derby 5pts beat Sunderland at 8/5
Preston 5pts beat Cardiff at 7/5
Preston 1pt no goalscorer 15/2ish
Everton 5pts beat Liverpool at 3/1
Derby 5pts beat Sunderland at 8/5
Preston 5pts beat Cardiff at 7/5
Preston 1pt no goalscorer 15/2ish
Omega Golf
A very poor field in Europe with Garcia head and shoulders above this lot. He looks an amazing ew prospect and I've been matching him up with anything I can find that looks decent place value!!
For on here I'll do a golf double:
Garcia 11/2
Singh 13/2
2pts ew double
For the Omega itself:
Dougherty 1pt ew 125/1
Edfors 1pt ew at 40/1
Wall 1pt ew at 40/1
For on here I'll do a golf double:
Garcia 11/2
Singh 13/2
2pts ew double
For the Omega itself:
Dougherty 1pt ew 125/1
Edfors 1pt ew at 40/1
Wall 1pt ew at 40/1
Monday, September 04, 2006
St Leger tissue
Not very exciting I'm afraid but here it is:
Sixites Icon Evens
Jadalee 8/1
Tusculum 9/1
Red Rocks 10/1
Mountain 33/1
Fire and Rain 33/1
Ask 33/1
Puerto Rico 33/1
Mont Etoile 33/1
Championship Point 33/1
Galient 100/1
The Last Drop 100/1
Sixties Icon looks solid to me. Very difficult to find something to beat it. For place betting I could see Championship Point performing better than of late if over whatever seems to be ailing him, and just possibly Mont Etoile could surprise once again.
I do have some ante post vouchers I rather wish I hadn't on Fire and Rain and Ask, and at least I have beaten the odds on Tusculum. I can't see me dashing to have another bet. My best chance is for Sixties Icon to be one of those big race favourites people want to oppose on a Saturday leading him to drift to ridiculous price - 6/4 would do.
Sixites Icon Evens
Jadalee 8/1
Tusculum 9/1
Red Rocks 10/1
Mountain 33/1
Fire and Rain 33/1
Ask 33/1
Puerto Rico 33/1
Mont Etoile 33/1
Championship Point 33/1
Galient 100/1
The Last Drop 100/1
Sixties Icon looks solid to me. Very difficult to find something to beat it. For place betting I could see Championship Point performing better than of late if over whatever seems to be ailing him, and just possibly Mont Etoile could surprise once again.
I do have some ante post vouchers I rather wish I hadn't on Fire and Rain and Ask, and at least I have beaten the odds on Tusculum. I can't see me dashing to have another bet. My best chance is for Sixties Icon to be one of those big race favourites people want to oppose on a Saturday leading him to drift to ridiculous price - 6/4 would do.
Sunday, September 03, 2006
Summary of performance
Time for a review of progress since launch of this blog.
Football
Points out: 912
Points in: 922.5
% returns: 101%
Football matches this season (included in above)
Points out: 100
Points in: 120
%returns: 120%
Golf
Points out: 303
Points in: 225
%returns: 74%
Racing
Points out: 50
Points in: 76
%returns: 152%
Racing (at escorialracing.co.uk - this flat season - not included in blog figures)
Points out: 1483
Points in: 1530
%returns: 103%
Others
Points out: 61
Points in: 143
%returns: 234%
ALL
Points out: 1326
Points in: 1366.5
%returns: 103%
Summary.
Football suffered the horrors of the world cup. This wasn't so bad on here, but set me back a fair way personally. The football match betting showed a profit last season, and so far early on this season is going well. I'm hopeful the ratings stack up and stealing the best prices does the rest.
Golf continues to be a drain. My syndicate partner and I have scaled back, and so in reality the points I suggest here are not actually the same bet size as the racing and football. I should probably bring all that into line on here, but hey it's only a blog no-one reads!
Racing-wise this hasn't been my best of seasons, and considering racing forms a significant part of my earnings-target, that has been a constant worry all year. The grinding bets (as put up on escorial) are showing a profit, but it's the "get rich" bets that have been dragging my own fund down. These are the ones that usually provide the leap forward you need, but you have to expect long painful losing runs with them, with near-misses part of the furniture. So it's been this season. For example I've done 59 forecasts over the season, with only one winner to show for it.
Bet and fund sizes:
To briefly summarise my racing bets are up to a maximum of 12 points. 12 points equates to 2% of my racing fund.
Football match bets are fixed at 5pts - this equates to 1.25% of my football fund. It was going to be raised to 2% after last season, but after the World Cup I had to scale back. I'd like to get to 2.5% next season.
Golf bets are usually just 1 or 2pts. 2pt is equivalent to half per cent of fund, and needs to be fixed so low to account for the prices and inevitable losing runs (plus the fact I'm losing!)
Other bets are variable. I have a "trading fund" and am willing to invest 20% of that fund on the right trade or 20% of the fund per event. The fund is a fifth the size of my racing fund and half the size of my football fund.
Bets in-running:
We still have to collect a nice amount on Ryan Moore as champion jockey. And Hayley should make it to 25 winners eventually. Our football league champions bets aren't looking quite so hot!
Future news:
Escorial is going subscription only at the end of October. I'm not entirely sure where this leaves me. I'm not sure how I feel about putting my thoughts up for free on a board that people pay for! I do hope it's a big success though - Ron sure deserves it for all the effort he's put into it. We'll see.
Football
Points out: 912
Points in: 922.5
% returns: 101%
Football matches this season (included in above)
Points out: 100
Points in: 120
%returns: 120%
Golf
Points out: 303
Points in: 225
%returns: 74%
Racing
Points out: 50
Points in: 76
%returns: 152%
Racing (at escorialracing.co.uk - this flat season - not included in blog figures)
Points out: 1483
Points in: 1530
%returns: 103%
Others
Points out: 61
Points in: 143
%returns: 234%
ALL
Points out: 1326
Points in: 1366.5
%returns: 103%
Summary.
Football suffered the horrors of the world cup. This wasn't so bad on here, but set me back a fair way personally. The football match betting showed a profit last season, and so far early on this season is going well. I'm hopeful the ratings stack up and stealing the best prices does the rest.
Golf continues to be a drain. My syndicate partner and I have scaled back, and so in reality the points I suggest here are not actually the same bet size as the racing and football. I should probably bring all that into line on here, but hey it's only a blog no-one reads!
Racing-wise this hasn't been my best of seasons, and considering racing forms a significant part of my earnings-target, that has been a constant worry all year. The grinding bets (as put up on escorial) are showing a profit, but it's the "get rich" bets that have been dragging my own fund down. These are the ones that usually provide the leap forward you need, but you have to expect long painful losing runs with them, with near-misses part of the furniture. So it's been this season. For example I've done 59 forecasts over the season, with only one winner to show for it.
Bet and fund sizes:
To briefly summarise my racing bets are up to a maximum of 12 points. 12 points equates to 2% of my racing fund.
Football match bets are fixed at 5pts - this equates to 1.25% of my football fund. It was going to be raised to 2% after last season, but after the World Cup I had to scale back. I'd like to get to 2.5% next season.
Golf bets are usually just 1 or 2pts. 2pt is equivalent to half per cent of fund, and needs to be fixed so low to account for the prices and inevitable losing runs (plus the fact I'm losing!)
Other bets are variable. I have a "trading fund" and am willing to invest 20% of that fund on the right trade or 20% of the fund per event. The fund is a fifth the size of my racing fund and half the size of my football fund.
Bets in-running:
We still have to collect a nice amount on Ryan Moore as champion jockey. And Hayley should make it to 25 winners eventually. Our football league champions bets aren't looking quite so hot!
Future news:
Escorial is going subscription only at the end of October. I'm not entirely sure where this leaves me. I'm not sure how I feel about putting my thoughts up for free on a board that people pay for! I do hope it's a big success though - Ron sure deserves it for all the effort he's put into it. We'll see.
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