Saturday 27th November

What a great race the Hennessey promises to be.

I cheered Denman all up the straight last year without even having had a bet on him, so I'd be delighted for the three timer. But he's more like an 8/1 shot in my book. This despite the fact he could have blown this field apart by the time they reach the cross fence. It'll be particularly interesting to see which of the young pretenders can go the gallop and still jump soundly.

Weird Al's been in my cyber-stable since his first outing, so I'm feeling a bit like a nervous owner myself this morning. The price isn't value, but I've always believed in having a couple of horses to follow blindly, and I'll be betting with my heart on this one.

On price I keep coming back to the horses proven in grade one company, running off such low weights. Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges have both dropped in the ratings and a return to form has to put them in the mix. But the one I've looked at all week is Taranis. He won this blog a fortune a few years ago as the middle leg of a treble when winning the Ryanair, so there's a little love in there, but if he travels and stays as well as he did last time out, he has to have a better chance than the prices.

So:

£60 Weird Al at 7/1 (and may drift badly this afternoon)
£30 Taranis (I'm on at 14/1+ but 12/1 still fair).
£3.50 rev exacta Taranis/Neptune Collonges
50p combination trifecta the above three.

And to get rich quick how about:
£10 Stormy Weather/Taranis/Just Smudge returns £17000+




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Saturday 20th November

Strange day today - there's plenty of racing to want to watch, but bets not exactly flying off the page.

All the graded races look to be priced Ok - each with a short priced favourite I wouldn't want to back at the prices, but their only credible opponents are similarly short-priced second favourites. I'll watch.

So, we're left with three tricky small-field chase handicaps.

Haydock 1:15
Pace duel up front there probably. Judging by Wincanton Tara Royal may not be able to keep up, which leaves Gringo to improve on his run at Kelso last time.
7/2 is a fair price, if an unexciting one.


Haydock 2:20
Wogan is very likeable and 4/1 is longer than my tissue (3/1). I was sniffy about some of these, which left me with Dance Island as value also at 12/1.


Ascot 3:10
Be watching to see if Noble Alan gets home over 2m1f here, as he's looked a short runner before to me. Woolcombe Folly looks the one, but again 3/1 is only fair.


Tomorrow's Becher Chase is more my cup of tea. However, again I seem to be drawn to the favourite, Maljimar. I'll put him in some accas today, and hope I don't have to bet again tomorrow!!


So, something like:
Gringo £25 at 7/2
Wogan £20 at 4/1 and Dance Island £10 at 12/1
Woolcombe Folly £25 at 3/1

Gringo/Wogan/W Folly £10 to return £750ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly £5 to return £1000ish
Gringo/Wogan/W Folly/Maljimar £10 to return £6500ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly/Maljimar £5 to return £8500ish

And assuming we're not sat on a fat voucher I'll go £40 Maljimar best price tomorrow...


Be lucky...

Thursday 18th November

A few prices that look too long, for you to do what you like with. I can't afford to tie much money up long-term unfortunately, but will do some modest trebles or something.

The Weekender put up a good case for Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges for the Hennessey yesterday. Obviously I'm a Weird Al fan and don't expect to desert him, but 5/1 is in no way a value bet, and I'm a bit disturbed to read that he finished distressed at Carlisle. The two old timers meanwhile have been dropped massively in the weights and could certainly bounce back. 16/1 was still available about both this morning, and it may be worth getting them on-side at least.

We backed Maljimar for the National last Spring despite stamina worries, and he was cantering when he fell. Which makes him noteworthy for the Becher chase and I'll be surprised if he doesn't form a part of my weekend portfolio...

Montenegro remain 9/1 to win Group G, and as long as they do I suggest all long-term get rich trebles should include them!

France last night looked to have shrugged off the shackles of Domenech. That leaves them with a lot of quality. 2012's a long way off, but 12/1 or better could plump up your returns nicely, if you can wait that long!

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Saturday 13th November

I'm only interested in the Mackeson today:

And for me two horses stand out on price this morning. Neither of them surprising to regulars.

Firstly, Pigeon Island at 22/1 ew first 5 places, or longer win only on betfair.
Pigeon Island landed us a small fortune in March, as the second leg of a double with Imperial Commander. So I'm hardly likely to abandon him now. As then, the key to him is a fast pace over this course, where he can sit at the back and pounce late. The trip doesn't bother me, and the light weight is a big bonus for a small horse. Admittedly he jumps pretty terribly, which is a worry for each way backing, but the price more than compensates for that.

I'm backing him up with Little Josh. He ran a cracker against Weird Al the other week, and we know how highly I regard him. There's tons of pace in this race on paper, which is going to be a problem for him, and I don't see him as an each way proposition. Better to grab some of the late 30s on betfair, and I'd suggest putting up a lay to recover the stake and a bit more, at an ungreedy price - 7s say.

Something like:
Pigeon Island £50 win/£25 place at 22/1 - first 5 places
Little Josh £25 win at 30ish
£2.50 reverse forecast the two.
£10 double Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross (Greatwood hurdle tomorrow) returns £1600
£5 double Little Josh/Manyriverstocross (returns c. £1000)
£10 treble Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross/Weird AL (Hennessey) returns £10000+


Be lucky...

Saturday 6th November

Stan James seem to have abandoned best odds guaranteed in favour of standing top price on those they fancy drifting - which is pretty much all of my picks today, so that's where I've gone.

1:15 Sandown
If you saw Pepe Simo jump first time out you have to take him on at odds-on, whatever the word from the yard is....this is Sandown after all.

2:20 Sandown
Songe has a favourite's chance. Bible Lord catches the eye - this is the time to get him, as it was last year, and he's fairly handicapped. Looking at Corals prices they agree. I put him in at 4s. Will play at 5s.

2:40 Kelso
Kalahari King should be able to give the weight to Noble Alan, but the market rather says it all. He was one of my favourite horses the other year but has let himself down since. I think I'll sit it out, though I expect I'll be suckered in if he gets any longer!

2:45 Wincanton
Wishful Thinking could be a good horse this year, and is probably fairly priced if you forgive his fall. It's the relative prices of the other two I don't get. Tara Royal was favourite ahead of Robinson Collonges previously and one race shouldn't lead to such a disparity between the two. Tara Royal at 7s looks a sporting bet.

3:20 Wincanton
Wide open contest. I respect the Nicholls runners without liking them much, certainly not at the prices. Ellerslie George was impressive in this last year, and though he's run like a dog since, is back on the right rating in first time blinkers. I'd hoped for longer than 14/1 but it's worth a tickle. And I'll chuck in Irish Raptor as well, 22/1 seems generous.

Something like:
£20 win Fahrisee 3/1
£20 win Bible Lord 5/1
£20 win Tara Royal 7/1
£15 win Ellerslie George 14/1
£10 win Irish Raptor 22/1
£9 fourfold with Ellerslie George returns 27000
£6 fourfold with Irish Raptor returns 28000


Be lucky...