Let's keep it simple today.
These two selections aren't remotely my usual sort of horses - they're both inconsistent and not in form - and so I'm also not sure why I'm going each way. The whole day could consist of watching two has-been horses being pulled up early - you've been warned. Still, one in the frame and we've saved our money.
Racing Post Chase
Not sure how much rain has fallen but I'm expecting softer ground than predicted and it may well have scuppered some of the more progressive horses, particularly Hobbs's pair. I expect Nacarat to run his usual game race and not be far away, but Razor Royale looks the one at the prices. He hasn't run too badly this year, and looks to have been targeting a repeat win here. I got 16/1 in the week, but 12s or better remains value on my tissue.
Eider Chase
Not my sort of race - slow, slow horses plodding home through the mud, with whichever horse deciding it's "travelling day" hanging on to win. Still, I kept looking at Companero. In terrible form, but nicely weighted if the blinkers wake him up. Big if, and he's weak this morning but at 20s+ to win and 6s to place worth a throw of the dice.
So, something like:
Razor Royale £25ew at 14/1
Companero £15 win at 20s+ and £15 place at 6/1
£10 ew double
and if you fancy £25000 how about a cheeky tenner fourfold
Razor Royale, Companero, West Ham and Sheffield Wednesday....!
Be lucky.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Saturday 19th February
I hope some of you were on yesterday's 1,2 in the Tote Trophy, held over from Saturday!
Today it's mainly fairly uncompetitive graded races - we'll throw some doubles at them and see if some stick.
Ascot 2:25 doesn't look very competitive - I crossed most of them out anyway - Royal Tune a legitimate favourite but Iconoclast looks a good price to give him a race.
Haydock 3:20 Pricewise skewing this towards topweights, but personally I'd be looking low in the mud. Nothing really comes out as a worthwhile bet by itself but two at nicer prices would be Major Malarkey and Sarde.
So, my £100 would look something like this:
Iconoclast £30 win at 10/1
Iconoclast 10/1
Riverside Theatre 7/4
Any Given Day 9/4
Sarde 14/1/Major Malarkey 10/1
Holmwood Legend 6/1
Mille Chief 7/4
30 x £2 doubles (ie £4 doubles on the 5 races, then £2 doubles with Sarde and MM)
2 x £5 accas paying at least £80000. That should do it!
West Brom look too short tomorrow...
Today it's mainly fairly uncompetitive graded races - we'll throw some doubles at them and see if some stick.
Ascot 2:25 doesn't look very competitive - I crossed most of them out anyway - Royal Tune a legitimate favourite but Iconoclast looks a good price to give him a race.
Haydock 3:20 Pricewise skewing this towards topweights, but personally I'd be looking low in the mud. Nothing really comes out as a worthwhile bet by itself but two at nicer prices would be Major Malarkey and Sarde.
So, my £100 would look something like this:
Iconoclast £30 win at 10/1
Iconoclast 10/1
Riverside Theatre 7/4
Any Given Day 9/4
Sarde 14/1/Major Malarkey 10/1
Holmwood Legend 6/1
Mille Chief 7/4
30 x £2 doubles (ie £4 doubles on the 5 races, then £2 doubles with Sarde and MM)
2 x £5 accas paying at least £80000. That should do it!
West Brom look too short tomorrow...
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Saturday 12th Feb
Boy, this year's Tote Trophy looks wide open. To be honest I think I've let weight sway me the most price-wise and so have ended up with these three darts:
Recession Proof - despite inexperience.
Bothy - and hope the ground is soft enough.
Final Approach - ticks all the trends boxes and I had him in as slight fave.
Fine Parchment, a non runner for us a couple of week ago, goes in a lesser race at Warwick. At the price we'd best play.
Football - it's another week where some possible draws leap off the page - with derbies and relegation matches to the fore.
So, something like:
Recession Proof £15 at 16/1
Bothy £15 at 18/1
Final Approach £15 at 10/1
6 x £1 forecasts
Fine Parchment £20 at 10/1
Man Utd/Birmingham/West Brom £10 all draws
add Fulham draw Monday for a £10 fourfold
and for the treble
Noland/Fine Parchment/Recession Proof £10 to return £20000
Be lucky...
Recession Proof - despite inexperience.
Bothy - and hope the ground is soft enough.
Final Approach - ticks all the trends boxes and I had him in as slight fave.
Fine Parchment, a non runner for us a couple of week ago, goes in a lesser race at Warwick. At the price we'd best play.
Football - it's another week where some possible draws leap off the page - with derbies and relegation matches to the fore.
So, something like:
Recession Proof £15 at 16/1
Bothy £15 at 18/1
Final Approach £15 at 10/1
6 x £1 forecasts
Fine Parchment £20 at 10/1
Man Utd/Birmingham/West Brom £10 all draws
add Fulham draw Monday for a £10 fourfold
and for the treble
Noland/Fine Parchment/Recession Proof £10 to return £20000
Be lucky...
Saturday, February 05, 2011
Saturday 5th February
Right, I've covered Sandown so that you don't have to!
2:25 Wide open - I like Medermit, but not at the price against this lot. Captain Chris would have been a possible but for Pricewise killing the value. Hidden Keel probably isn't good enough, but he's the only one I priced up shorter than we can get.
3:00 These big field handicap hurdles aren't my thing these days. However, I do like Like A Hurricane down the bottom, on a day when Alan King's could go well. Kilcrea Kim also looks solid, as of course does the favourite. I priced Like A Hurricane at 5s, which looks a bit over the top, but that's going to be my bet of the day.
3:35 Take The Breeze looks a crazy price (whenever I say this they win easily). I'd much rather have Khachutarian or Leading Contender. That said, those two combined at around 7/4 isn't appealing either.
4:10 Alan King lands the treble with Call Me A Legend and we all go home happy. Well, it's not impossible! I don't like much else in this race, and if I need to chase to get my £100 back I could do worse than here.
As for the rest of the sport, how about three unfathomable upsets. Wolves, Italy and Scotland. I can't actually see any of them happening, let alone all three, but I could see all matches being tight for a long time. Trading opportunities, or handicap ones in the rugby for those playing at shorter odds, but us Saturday Gamblers prefer shooting for the stars, and there has to be some fun at 340/1 the treble.
So, something like:
Like A Hurricane £30 at 10/1
Like a Hurricane/Kilcrea Kim £2.50 combination exacta
Hidden Keel £15 at 10/1
Medermit/Like A Hurricane/Call Me A Legend £20 treble returns £4000+
Hidden Keel; Kilcrea Kim/Like A Hurricane; Khachaturian/Leading Contender; Call Me A Legend: - 4 x £5 fourfolds - returns £13000+
Italy/Scotland/Wolves £10 returns £3400
Be lucky...
2:25 Wide open - I like Medermit, but not at the price against this lot. Captain Chris would have been a possible but for Pricewise killing the value. Hidden Keel probably isn't good enough, but he's the only one I priced up shorter than we can get.
3:00 These big field handicap hurdles aren't my thing these days. However, I do like Like A Hurricane down the bottom, on a day when Alan King's could go well. Kilcrea Kim also looks solid, as of course does the favourite. I priced Like A Hurricane at 5s, which looks a bit over the top, but that's going to be my bet of the day.
3:35 Take The Breeze looks a crazy price (whenever I say this they win easily). I'd much rather have Khachutarian or Leading Contender. That said, those two combined at around 7/4 isn't appealing either.
4:10 Alan King lands the treble with Call Me A Legend and we all go home happy. Well, it's not impossible! I don't like much else in this race, and if I need to chase to get my £100 back I could do worse than here.
As for the rest of the sport, how about three unfathomable upsets. Wolves, Italy and Scotland. I can't actually see any of them happening, let alone all three, but I could see all matches being tight for a long time. Trading opportunities, or handicap ones in the rugby for those playing at shorter odds, but us Saturday Gamblers prefer shooting for the stars, and there has to be some fun at 340/1 the treble.
So, something like:
Like A Hurricane £30 at 10/1
Like a Hurricane/Kilcrea Kim £2.50 combination exacta
Hidden Keel £15 at 10/1
Medermit/Like A Hurricane/Call Me A Legend £20 treble returns £4000+
Hidden Keel; Kilcrea Kim/Like A Hurricane; Khachaturian/Leading Contender; Call Me A Legend: - 4 x £5 fourfolds - returns £13000+
Italy/Scotland/Wolves £10 returns £3400
Be lucky...
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